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PMA expectations?

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so if D1's are gone as you say.. there's not much of a pyramid left =)

there can't be "clear distinction" between the 20D and 350D (or whatever their future names) for cost-cutting reasons.

looks like that "structure" will not hold for long (with all the quakes nowadays) ;)

besides the major difference at the low-end is the body, and 20D is not even weatherproof =/
(i whish it were)

right now they don't have a cam for hiking/travel/(outdoor shooting) that will safely take some water/snow on it =/ , which in my opinion limits their customer base significantly.

anyway... i'm just keeping fingers crossed for a lens that is not push-pull in the mid-zoom range...
=)
man.. i think i'm going "Nikon" I tell ya ;)
can't wait for the PMA =)
 
SG2 said:
so if D1's are gone as you say.. there's not much of a pyramid left =)
Click to expand...
No, it is clear that the pyramid he was referring to was the 300D, 20D, 1D setup. The very first question of the interview lays it out that way and Mr. Iwashita does not correct it. This is very clear in the original Japanese but is not something that can be translated to English without changing the wording of what Iwashita-san said.

Entry level (300D), mid-range (20D), high-end (1D pair -- for now).

Ian
--
Ian Hobday
Osaka, Japan
http://hobday.net/photos
 
Thanks for your work translating, Ian.

The way I read the interview though, in your excellent translation, and other interviews, certainly referred to the 3step pyramid as you say..

Juat the same, I have also read that Canon intend to keep all 3 sensor sizes, and although they currently specify the 1.3 as the one for speed, that deosn't surelfy mean that that is the only reason they may ever have.

The FF sensor must be dropping in manufacturing price to consider it as the unified 1D/1Ds line replacement, as the current 1D/1DII crowd will hardly pay current 1DsII prices, so that surely means that the price of the 1.3 will drop even more.

This then leaves Canon the option of keeping the pyramid in 3 layers as they describe, keeping all 3 sensor sizes s they have said, and just re-defining the 20D level a bit more towards the pro end and putting in a 1.3 sensor, in, say the fall of this year or early 2006.

A lot depends on whether they figure they can afford to position the 20D line towards the top end, or be ultrea cost-competitive.

I don't think we should regards Canon's statements as cast in stone - they as doing a good job of keeping us informed of their road-map, far better than any of their competitors, but have to keep the flexibility to respond to the market.

At some stage both the 3-level pyramid (see the number of models in the film line) and perhaps the definition that the 1.3 is used for speed reasons may change - and there is certainly a lot going for a 1.3 sensor, and it's use would put more pressure on Nikon.
Ian Hobday said:
SG2 said:
so if D1's are gone as you say.. there's not much of a pyramid left =)
Click to expand...
No, it is clear that the pyramid he was referring to was the 300D,
20D, 1D setup. The very first question of the interview lays it
out that way and Mr. Iwashita does not correct it. This is very
clear in the original Japanese but is not something that can be
translated to English without changing the wording of what
Iwashita-san said.

Entry level (300D), mid-range (20D), high-end (1D pair -- for now).

Ian
--
Ian Hobday
Osaka, Japan
http://hobday.net/photos
Click to expand...
--
Regards,
DaveMart
Please see profile for equipment
 
**** Boer said:
There have been a few pre PMA announcements so far, mostly P&S
cameras. But anyone here knows more about Canon DLRS that we could
expect at PMA? The 300D still seems to sell reasonably well and
seems to have no competition in it's price class and hardly needs
an update from a marketing perspective. The 20D is just one of the
latest cameras like the 1Ds mk II. The 1D mk II doesn't seem to be
at the end of it's life cycle either. Would that mean there will be
no new Canon D-SLR at all? Seems to be odd, since all PMA's or
Photokinas the last 3 years gave us at least one new Canon DSLR.

Is a high speed (12fps) 1D series (like RT) realistic? Or an in
between 20D and 1D model (2D? type) with a new sensor type maybe?
Or an anti shake sensor like the KM7D? Or will a 2D be based on an
11mp full frame sensor and some crippled logic in a 20D body? Or
will Canon surprise us with some kind of new 'uber camera' that
will kill medium format?

There often seem to be some well informed participants in this
forum. I am just curious wether to spend my money on an 1D mk II or
1Ds mk II now, or just wait for important things to come.
Click to expand...
--
http://www.runemolnes.com
 
In Norway they have been selling black 300D i.e. the Rebel for a long time. They have been getting cheaper all the time too.

My only hope is that the glass will go down. I think they need a new wideangle, but would prefer a cheaper 400 IS 4.0.
Nohackle
Daniel Clune said:
Two differant digital rebels one being the same 6 meg and the other
being 8 meg. The 6 meg will be pretty much like the current Rebel
but be black in color with a reduced $500 price and the 8 meg will
be a $900 to $1000 camera all plastic like Rebel but with a few
more features than current Reble but less fram rate speed than 20D
with less features. But with new focus system on the $1000 Rebel
but the $500 Rebel with the current focus system it has now.

Heavy rumors on Nikon releasing a low cost D50 6 meg camera is why
i think Canon will also have two Rebels. After all they have
several film Rebels. Just my guess !!
Click to expand...
 
No hackle said:
Daniel Clune said:
Two differant digital rebels one being the same 6 meg and the other
being 8 meg. The 6 meg will be pretty much like the current Rebel
but be black in color with a reduced $500 price and the 8 meg will
be a $900 to $1000 camera all plastic like Rebel but with a few
more features than current Reble but less fram rate speed than 20D
with less features. But with new focus system on the $1000 Rebel
but the $500 Rebel with the current focus system it has now.

Heavy rumors on Nikon releasing a low cost D50 6 meg camera is why
i think Canon will also have two Rebels. After all they have
several film Rebels. Just my guess !!
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
then the 500f/4 is close enough. the 400f/2.8 is HEAVY & PRICY, but believe me, it worth every penny!

i don't see it's a waste of glass for a 200-400 f/3.5, it's almost perfect!
am using 100-400IS, the range is great! but it's just tooooo slow!!!
--
Regards,
KT
 
Ah, but what is a "level"?

Canon says they see fit to stick with "three levels" of DSLR.

Separately, Canon executives have said they forsee soon having about the same number of DSLR models as film SLR models in the lineup. (In the context of the statement, it did not sound like this was meant to predict a smaller number of film models soon)

On at least one occasion, Canon has described its film SLR line as consisting of three tiers or levels. (Apparently sticking the EOS 3 in the upper tier for this characterization) Within those three - or maybe four - film levels, they have eight models.

So for the three levels of DSLR I'd lie Canon to produce the following:
  • Probably two models of D-rebel, I don't care if it's two but I expect an 8MP update and wouldn't be surprised if the kept a 6MP model at a lower price point around $700US.
  • Two models of "advanced". A 1.6 20D for now to be replaced by a 10 or 12MP 1.6 in 1-1 1/2 years, and a 12MP 1.3 with an up-spec-ed autofocus for about 1.5 times the price (what to call this - would this be the 80D, no, sounds too much like "ADD"; perhaps the 12D).
  • Two models of "pro". For now, the 1D Mk II and the 1Ds Mk II. Next generation a 22 MP FF with 8fps and either a smaller and lighter version with 22 MP FF or a smaller and lighter battery option. (This last requset relies on Canon saying they intend to merge the top models. I only think they should merge the top tier if they can produce full frame cameras for $4000US. If not, then they sould also make a version using a 12 MP 1.3)
 
The new Digital Rebel would be a "Digital Elan". The whole point of the rebel is the crippling. Drop the build quality of a full featured 20D to Rebel level (similar to the D100 to D70 quality drop), sell with a kit lens for $1,000 and the D70 is sunk. The 20D is a much more substantial camera than a film Elan.

That being said, I would love to have PMA bring us a "Digital Elan" and a less full featured 6 MP Rebel (3000D?) selling body only for $500.

After Nikon gives us the D90 or whatever the D100 replacement will be, top it next year with the 20D replacement positioned more as a "Digital EOS 3".

I think PMA will give us the "Digital Elan" but I fear Canon will call it a rebel which I think is a mistake.
Max Fun said:
Adam-T said:
Max Fun said:
If that is true, what would be the position of the 20D?
Click to expand...
the 10D didn't have anywhere near 5FPS and remember that the 20D is
now being pushed as "Semi Pro", has a rear dial, big buffer, PC
Sync, real pentaprism, MLU, and all the other trimmings the 300D
lacks - the difference between a 20D and a 200D would be smaller
than the difference between a 10D and a 300D even if they did
slightly de-cripple it (the AF modes and flash compensation) ..
they WILL want to sell this camera and the D70 has rocked the boat
since the 300D came out.

--
Please ignore the Typos, I'm the world's worst Typist

Click to expand...
--
The Secret to Life is... Calcium!!
Recent Gallery- http://www.pbase.com/supperman
Older Gallery- http://max-fun.fotopic.net
Click to expand...
 
Ian Hobday said:
There are some very big issues with this.

1. Canon has already stated they are going to have no more EOS-1
series cameras with 1.3x sensors.
Click to expand...
I've read the Canon interviews and I don't think that's what they said. They said they plan to merge the 1.3x and FF 1-series bodies in the future, but I don't recall seeing a specific timetable. I also don't recall seeing anything suggesting "no more EOS-1 series cameras with 1.3x sensors." Because of the $4,000 difference between the 1Dmk2 and 1DSmk2 I'm guessing there will be another generation or two before the merge.
Ian Hobday said:
They also have not brought out any lenses specifically for the 1.3x
bodies.
Click to expand...
This could be because 1.3x is a stop-gap, but it could also be a reflection of the simple fact that a 1.3-specific lens wouldn't be much different from a normal FF lens. There's just not THAT much difference between 1.3x and FF.
Ian Hobday said:
With this in mind I
think Canon will drop the 1.3x sensors totally and move to a two
sensor-size (FF and 1.6). This saves them money in both
manufacturing and design.
Click to expand...
They've said as much, but whether it happens in 2 or 5 years remains to be seen.
 
Andy Biggs said:
However, I really would like to see a revamped 100-400mm lens.
Maybe something like a 200-400mm f/4 or 2/8 DO.

:-)

--
Andy Biggs African Photo Safaris
http://www.andybiggs.com
African Digital Photo Safaris ~ Photo Workshops ~ Fine Art Prints
Click to expand...
thought i have mentioned 200-400f2.8 below :)!!!

waiting for a new prime from PMA, otherwise, the 400f2.8 stil a go for the Feb 2006 safari shot with you. need lots of idea for mounting, and resting it from the top of those landrovers! will talk to you very soon!

heard your latest interview with Shutterbug, very interesting. Kevin Roche, my partner joining the safari trip as well, really liked your "multimedia".
--
Regards,
Kevin Tat
 
With the possible exception of a 300D update, a new DSLR body isn't going to happen (based on the statements Canon execs made last year).

I'm hoping for new EF lenses. An an updated 100-400 would be great. The current ones needs weather sealing and an IS update, and it's one of the last lenses Canon hasn't updated in recent years. A good WA lens would also be nice too.
 
That is a waste. Wouldn't a:

200mm f1.8
300mm f2.8
400mm f3.7

all in the same exact size and weight of a:

200mm f3.7
300mm f3.7
400mm f3.7

be a bit more sweet? Why waste all that great glass when you are NOT at 400mm?

Steven
Kevin Tat said:
No hackle said:
Daniel Clune said:
Two differant digital rebels one being the same 6 meg and the other
being 8 meg. The 6 meg will be pretty much like the current Rebel
but be black in color with a reduced $500 price and the 8 meg will
be a $900 to $1000 camera all plastic like Rebel but with a few
more features than current Reble but less fram rate speed than 20D
with less features. But with new focus system on the $1000 Rebel
but the $500 Rebel with the current focus system it has now.

Heavy rumors on Nikon releasing a low cost D50 6 meg camera is why
i think Canon will also have two Rebels. After all they have
several film Rebels. Just my guess !!
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
then the 500f/4 is close enough. the 400f/2.8 is HEAVY & PRICY,
but believe me, it worth every penny!

i don't see it's a waste of glass for a 200-400 f/3.5, it's almost
perfect!
am using 100-400IS, the range is great! but it's just tooooo slow!!!
--
Regards,
KT
Click to expand...
--
---
New and Updated!!!
Winter 2005:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/images_a_week_winter20

Lightning:
http://www.pbase.com/snoyes/lightning_strikes
 
70-200mmf/2.8 is superb! 200-400mmf/3.5 would be perfect!

it's all about light..more light, fast fast fast! Most used at 400mm end, using 200-400mm to frame, and NOT losing stops!

I see your point! but this is only my opinion!!! :)
KT
Steven Noyes said:
That is a waste. Wouldn't a:

200mm f1.8
300mm f2.8
400mm f3.7

all in the same exact size and weight of a:

200mm f3.7
300mm f3.7
400mm f3.7

be a bit more sweet? Why waste all that great glass when you are
NOT at 400mm?

Steven
Click to expand...
 
If Canon is to have a digital equivalent for each type of film SLRs they have, then there would be 3 types of Rebel: T2, K2 and the GII

I think there are more constrains when developing a digital SLR than a film one, that's why it'd be hard to imagine 3 different Digital Rebels out in the market right now.
Surfdog said:
Ah, but what is a "level"?

Canon says they see fit to stick with "three levels" of DSLR.

Separately, Canon executives have said they forsee soon having
about the same number of DSLR models as film SLR models in the
lineup. (In the context of the statement, it did not sound like
this was meant to predict a smaller number of film models soon)

On at least one occasion, Canon has described its film SLR line as
consisting of three tiers or levels. (Apparently sticking the EOS
3 in the upper tier for this characterization) Within those three
  • or maybe four - film levels, they have eight models.
So for the three levels of DSLR I'd lie Canon to produce the
following:
  • Probably two models of D-rebel, I don't care if it's two but I
expect an 8MP update and wouldn't be surprised if the kept a 6MP
model at a lower price point around $700US.
  • Two models of "advanced". A 1.6 20D for now to be replaced by a
10 or 12MP 1.6 in 1-1 1/2 years, and a 12MP 1.3 with an up-spec-ed
autofocus for about 1.5 times the price (what to call this - would
this be the 80D, no, sounds too much like "ADD"; perhaps the 12D).
  • Two models of "pro". For now, the 1D Mk II and the 1Ds Mk II.
Next generation a 22 MP FF with 8fps and either a smaller and
lighter version with 22 MP FF or a smaller and lighter battery
option. (This last requset relies on Canon saying they intend to
merge the top models. I only think they should merge the top tier
if they can produce full frame cameras for $4000US. If not, then
they sould also make a version using a 12 MP 1.3)
Click to expand...
--
The Secret to Life is... Calcium!!
Recent Gallery- http://www.pbase.com/supperman
Older Gallery- http://max-fun.fotopic.net
 
200-400mm f/2.8? Man, that would be one huge lens. It would have to be a DO design!

Don't worry about camera support issues just yet. I always seem to be coming up with newer and better ideas after each safari. I leave for Africa in 2 weeks, and this trip will be a fun one, as I am taking along a number of different support options, and plan on photographing each of them in use out in the field, so people can understand the pros and cons of each.

In the end, I think there isn't a better solution other than a bean bag or two........

Thanks on the interview. I didn't think many people actually heard it!

Andy
Kevin Tat said:
Andy Biggs said:
However, I really would like to see a revamped 100-400mm lens.
Maybe something like a 200-400mm f/4 or 2/8 DO.

:-)

--
Andy Biggs African Photo Safaris
http://www.andybiggs.com
African Digital Photo Safaris ~ Photo Workshops ~ Fine Art Prints
Click to expand...
thought i have mentioned 200-400f2.8 below :)!!!
waiting for a new prime from PMA, otherwise, the 400f2.8 stil a go
for the Feb 2006 safari shot with you. need lots of idea for
mounting, and resting it from the top of those landrovers! will
talk to you very soon!

heard your latest interview with Shutterbug, very interesting.
Kevin Roche, my partner joining the safari trip as well, really
liked your "multimedia".
--
Regards,
Kevin Tat
Click to expand...
--
Andy Biggs African Photo Safaris
http://www.andybiggs.com
African Digital Photo Safaris ~ Photo Workshops ~ Fine Art Prints
 
In 2006 Canon will have to introduce new pro-Eos1D-bodies. The construction of the present bodies goes back to 1998 and the Eos 3.

Since then Canon have been working on a AF-system with sensors all over the image. The battery-system in the 3/1V/1D-serie is allso to old fashion. Look at Nikon D2-batteries which are smaller.

In november 1992 Canon introduces the five sensor AF-system in the Eos 5 which was a testcamera for the Eos 1N (1994). In 1998 the Eos 3 was introduced with the technology of the present series of Eos-1's. The Eos 3 and 1V and 1D is children of the same project.

If there's coming new pro bodies in 2006 with a lot of new features a 3D/2D would be the perfect testbench. And the time is prefect now.

So my predictions are.
  • New body with 100+ AF-senors
  • New bateries
  • 10 MP 1,3x or 12MP 1,0x
  • 5 fps
The 200-400/4 IS is also likely.

A new line-up of high-quality wide angle lenses is urgently needed. The mediumformat pro's will go back to mediumformat if new lenses won't come now.

EF-S 11/2,8 fisheye
EF-S 50-200/3,5-4,5 IS

450 EX

--
Magnus Fröderberg
Photojournalist
http://www.froderberg.com
 
Have fun there, wish it's 2006 already! :(

Saw Michael's write-up in luminous-landscape the trip he was with you, one of his photos shown he used the black widow to support his 500mm, with a Kirk clamp? I thought I saw someone was using a full Wimberley Head as well, I guess I like the Wimberly Head better, but not sure if that thing can be clamped up good on the landrovers??? I need it for on-tripod land use in the future as well. Please try out those options and feed back to us if you will, maybe a little write up in your website!

Kevin Tat
---------------
Andy Biggs said:
Don't worry about camera support issues just yet. I always seem to
be coming up with newer and better ideas after each safari. I leave
for Africa in 2 weeks, and this trip will be a fun one, as I am
taking along a number of different support options, and plan on
photographing each of them in use out in the field, so people can
understand the pros and cons of each.

In the end, I think there isn't a better solution other than a bean
bag or two........

Thanks on the interview. I didn't think many people actually heard it!

Andy
Kevin Tat said:
Andy Biggs said:
However, I really would like to see a revamped 100-400mm lens.
Maybe something like a 200-400mm f/4 or 2/8 DO.

:-)

--
Andy Biggs African Photo Safaris
http://www.andybiggs.com
African Digital Photo Safaris ~ Photo Workshops ~ Fine Art Prints
Click to expand...
thought i have mentioned 200-400f2.8 below :)!!!
waiting for a new prime from PMA, otherwise, the 400f2.8 stil a go
for the Feb 2006 safari shot with you. need lots of idea for
mounting, and resting it from the top of those landrovers! will
talk to you very soon!

heard your latest interview with Shutterbug, very interesting.
Kevin Roche, my partner joining the safari trip as well, really
liked your "multimedia".
--
Regards,
Kevin Tat
Click to expand...
--
Andy Biggs African Photo Safaris
http://www.andybiggs.com
African Digital Photo Safaris ~ Photo Workshops ~ Fine Art Prints
Click to expand...
--
Regards,
Kevin Tat
 
You could have two digital rebels by keeping the existing one and making the second one blach with the software-disabled functions re-enabled. Keep those two in the lineup and make the third one the 8MP update. To make the newest of them seem "more serious" to rebel buyers, make it black also but give it a textured finish like the elan/30 film cameras.

Making lots of flavors of rebel is easy; making an EOS 3D is, apparently, impossible.
Max Fun said:
If Canon is to have a digital equivalent for each type of film SLRs
they have, then there would be 3 types of Rebel: T2, K2 and the GII

I think there are more constrains when developing a digital SLR
than a film one, that's why it'd be hard to imagine 3 different
Digital Rebels out in the market right now.
Click to expand...
 
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