I don't agree with your 300D assesment, it is Canon's worst camera
and is out of date. It does not even have ETTL-2 on it and ETTL is
the worst thing for consumer level photography.
I agree here. The D70 is more expensive than the 300D but it is also considerably better. The likelihood of a 300D replacement in 2005 is high, and an announcement at PMA is likely at least.
2D
Same body as 20D
Same focus system as 20D
Writing speeds to card in 6K+ territory
9 frame buffer
3 FPS
1.3 crop
9-10mp (whatever fits properly)
Noise level at 800 ISO same as today's 200 ISO
Noise level at 1600 ISO same as today's 400 ISO
Noise level at 3200 ISO same as today's 1600 ISO
1/3 stop ISO selection choices
IS on the body
$3500 MSRP $2500 Street
There are some very big issues with this.
1. Canon has already stated they are going to have no more EOS-1 series cameras with 1.3x sensors. They also have not brought out any lenses specifically for the 1.3x bodies. With this in mind I think Canon will drop the 1.3x sensors totally and move to a two sensor-size (FF and 1.6). This saves them money in both manufacturing and design.
2. 1.3x sensors are too large to have effective IS in the body while using 35mm FF lenses. The 1.6x / 1.5x sensor is just small enough to make this work.
3. The 1Ds M2 was announced quite recently. Huge noise-level improvements in such a short period of time do not seem likely. Even if Canon had the ability I doubt they would release such a camera without updating their flagship 1-series first. Marketing reasons. (Yes, I hate that idea too, but it is the way of the corporate world.)
Since there may be no IS in the body, a new EF lens:
20-90 3.5 L IS and
This lens would be very, very heavy. The focal length range is nice, but the cost and weight would not be desirable.
A new grip, designed while engineers are awake this time.
Yes, the 20D grip is the worst design I have ever seen. I would love for Canon to replace it with something nicer...
Nothing too extraordinary, every area advances one notch, but
reasonable.
Lowering 1600 ISO noise to 400 ISO noise would be extraordinary. Especially since the 20D noise at 400 is not
that much different from what it is at 100... It would be more than extraordinary actually; it'd be an amazing feat.
IS in a 1.3x body would also be
far beyond extraordinary. Canon would have to break the laws of physics to make a useful IS system with a 1.3x sensor and 35mm FF lenses.
Digital Rebel/300D:
Same thing as it is now but:
7mp
Black body
High write speeds to card - same as 20D
9 frame buffer
ETTL-2 with + - ratios available on body
Reconnecting most of the blocked selections
$999
I don't know what Canon will do to make it so that the 300D replacement won't kill 20D sales, but it will be something.
As with the 10D/300D though, I think they will use the same sensor in the 20D/new300D. Why? Cost. The sensor and surrounding electronics are by far the most expensive parts to design and manufacturer. Creating a new system for a budget camera is not economically sensible and Canon proved reluctant to do it with the 300D. I would guess we will see a plastic-bodied 20D with various functions removed. But this time I think Canon will do a better job removing functions so that they can't be turned back on with a firmware hack.
Digital Rebel Lite/200D:
Today's Digital Rebel Body
No changes
$699
Nope. It does not cost Canon any less to manufacture this camera than it would an 8mp version of it. It would actually cost them more actually as they would have to have yet another sensor FAB line. There is no reason to produce it and many reasons not to.
Canon also stated publicly a few months ago that they really are not looking to expand the number of levels in their digital SLR line up. You can read my translation of this interview here if you like:
http://hobday.net/canon Yes, eventually they will expand things, and that is covered in the interview too. This is another strike against the 2D.
Line-up:
1Ds MKII
1D MKII
2D
20D
Digital Rebel/300D-II
Digital Rebel Lite/200D
No, not at this time. Canon is actually going to consolidate the 1D/1Ds lines in the next release cycle. After they have done that they might release the much-hoped-for "3D" to split the difference between the top-end non-pro model (20D) and the pro model (1D).
Personally I would love to have a 3D. I want a spot meter!! And I would like the 1/3 ISO option, better low light focusing, and a few other things. I don't want the huge 1 series body though, and I don't really need weather sealing either.
At PMA I expect to see a new 300D and maybe some new lenses... But I don't think we will see any major new product-line announcements.
Ian
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Ian Hobday
Osaka, Japan
http://hobday.net/photos