Replacement for D1x?

[Scott Sherman188952]

Just curious when you think the next replacement for the D1x is likely to be announced and where. Don't particularly want speculation on how many pixels or how many shots per sec or any other specs as this has been done and done.

I am as frustrated as all of you must be and just want to get a sense of when we might likely see something. I guess I also am wondering how long we will have to wait before we know for sure that Nikon no longer wants to comptete on the high res pro DSLR camera line.

It sort of appears that the DX lens line is intended for the D70 / D2h line. On Ebay D1x cameras are for sale for just over a thousand or so dollars with few bids even at that price.

I am a little concerned that Nikon has given up on the pro level DSLR line and simpley wants to sell to the masses at the news photographers and pro-sumer level and below. Needless to say they will never make that announcement but at some point, might we be able to assume that what we have been waiting so long for just is not coming. My questioin is how long must we wait before we find out that there really is no D2x or D3 coming.

The technology has evolved and there is sufficient improvements to create a competative next level camera but Nikon has not (in this area). If they were going to come out with something shouldn't it have appeared by now. At this rate every major manufacturer will have come out with a high end DSLR high resolution camera except Nikon.

When the D1 split, Nikon announced the H and the X versions very close together and then released them within a short time of one another. Why would this offering be different if there was a D2x in the wings?

Typically cameras like most technology devices evolve in approximately 18 month or 2 year increments to keep sales and competition satisfied. Where is Nikon?

DSLR sales are frequently decided on by which lenses one has invested in. DSLR's are not just cameras but systems, it seems likely that Nikon would not want to jeprodize losing a whole generation of potential system customers to another brand because the foundation of the system (the camera body) is not being made available. All those who have gone to Canon or first time buyers who chose Canon or what ever will never go to Nikonbecause they will own other companies glass. Every day hundreds of others around the world are making a decision which system to invest in for high res camera system potential are chosing another maker of cameras because they are afraid Nikon will not be competative in the future.

If they are to be competative for the future they must release something soon to tell those who are spending (lots of) money on lenses and accessories that there will be a steady flow of new technology as it becomes available. i am not seening this and i am becoming ever more skeptical.

I have a ton of Nikon glass that I don't want to dump at discount prices yet and I don't want to buy a D70 or D2h.

How much longer are you going to wait?
--
Scott Sherman
http://www.interactivephotos.com

 

[Dennis D]

On Ebay D1x cameras are for sale for just over a
thousand or so dollars with few bids even at that price.

Those D1X's will sell for around $2500 by the time the bidding is over. The ones I saw that were priced low were damaged or demo's or still had 4-5 days to go, a lot of them haven't reached the reserve price yet either.

The majority of the bidding takes place in the last few hours of the auction.

 

[maxz]

On Ebay D1x cameras are for sale for just over a
thousand or so dollars with few bids even at that price.

Those D1X's will sell for around $2500 by the time the bidding is
over. The ones I saw that were priced low were damaged or demo's or
still had 4-5 days to go, a lot of them haven't reached the reserve
price yet either.

The majority of the bidding takes place in the last few hours of
the auction.

 

[Dennis D]

I've waited till there were just a few seconds left to bid.

On Ebay D1x cameras are for sale for just over a
thousand or so dollars with few bids even at that price.

Those D1X's will sell for around $2500 by the time the bidding is
over. The ones I saw that were priced low were damaged or demo's or
still had 4-5 days to go, a lot of them haven't reached the reserve
price yet either.

The majority of the bidding takes place in the last few hours of
the auction.

 

[John Ricard]

Disclaimer: The following post is utilizes SARCASM -something that never works on a forum. But here goes anyway.

I guess you don't vist this forum as often as I do. If so then you would have learned the following from the people who post here:

1) The D1x is such a great camera that it still doesn't need a replacement.
2) The D2h is "good enough" so we don't need anything better from Nikon

3) More megapixels won't make for better pictures because 4mp is perfect for enlargements way up to 20" by 30".
4) A better camera won't make you a better photographer.

5) Instead of waiting for the next big thing, we should all just go out and take pictures.

Disclaimer: I don't actually believe ANY of those statements, but that's the type of thing you read on this forum all day long.

 

[maxz]

1) The D1x is such a great camera that it still doesn't need a
replacement.

heh heh the same applies to canon camp, reads as 'the control and layout and size and weight and the lovely NiMH battery of the 1 series are already perfect, it doesn't need any improvement. '

2) The D2h is "good enough" so we don't need anything better from
Nikon

indeed good enough for its targeted market, but more pixel can't hurt

3) More megapixels won't make for better pictures because 4mp is
perfect for enlargements way up to 20" by 30".

heh heh and also all the 'all pixels are not equal' talks. It's absolutely right, but still, more 'better pixels' will be even greater isn't it? =)

4) A better camera won't make you a better photographer.

true, but if a lousy camera recorded a badly framed image, a high-res camera might catch the UFO in that badly framed image =)

5) Instead of waiting for the next big thing, we should all just go
out and take pictures.

many people take a lot of pictures everyday and come here to check out equipment news, now they need to get out to shoot again... a long day... =)

 

[Scott Sherman188952]

According to the timeline posted here on DP Review website the D1 was released June 1999, the D1x and D1h were released Feb 2001 at the approximate same time. Technnology marches forward and Nikon owners feel that Nikon is the number one camera for DSLR cameras with a bright and exciting future in a very exciting new technology. Nikon owners feel a sybiotic relationship with Nikon.

Well since then, technology has surged forward with exciting new advances. We know that because Canon us some of it in the 1Ds. Nikon owners are also excited because they know that Nikon is the number one camera manufacturer in the DSLR line and will respond with a better version. Well Nikon did put out a new technology, DX lenses. Nikon owners collectively went ... HUH?

We argued the advantages of a smaller picture at the same distance and came up with all kinds of reasons why Nikon was still better because we believed it. Then Canon came out with the 1DMK2.

Nikon went alright, the next generation of cameras is here now. OK Nikon where are you, we are ready. We want to spend our money. We want the new technology available for our huge collections of lenses and Nikon gadgets.

Well Nikon did respond. They came out with a D70 that was cheaper and would go well with those cheaper DX lenses. Nikon owners said, hey what about us D1x/h owners. We want something that uses all the great new technology. We got a buffer upgrade that could only be done at the factory. We said okay, cool but that seemed like a stop gap measure not a fix. We want the real thing, a D1next generation that uses some of the new available technology those guys with the white lenses get to use.

Nikon responded with a 4mp camera with less resolution than the Coolpix. Nikon owners collectively said .... HUH? there was to say the least a tremendous feeling that Nikon has abandoned its most loyal supporters, the big lens crowd, D1x crowd.

We started rumbling and groussing and complaining to each other and then some of us finally started jumping ship to the other side. Those of us who were left behind because we couldn't afford the loss of selling large numbers of expensive lenses and accessories, figured any day now.

Well, any day now has come and gone. The D1s is getting a new shine with firmware upgrades, The 1DMK2 is getting better. Canon software is coming of age and Nikon D1x owners are still asking when.

If we celebrate a fourth birthday for the D1x in Feb 2005 and there is now news of a D2x, will you stay with Nikon if you have a D1x. Will you wait for Feb 2006 or 2007.

How long can we keep making excuses for Nikon? When do we say, Nikon is done with high resolution DSLR camera body because they could not keep up with the competition? Do not wait for Nikon to make this announcement. If they did, the current D1x and all DSLR Nikons would be worthless. If they are out of this line, it will come not with a bang. It will come with the wimpers of those of us who waited and waited and waited and waited and waited and waited.

Scott Sherman

 

[shudderbug2]

Do you actually think that by this posting someone will magically appear from Nikon and tell you what's in their plans?

Do a search on Thom Hogan's name. He seems to have some pretty good insight into how Nikon thinks and works and he often states they are a very traditional Japanese company that is focused on bringing products out they feel will be beneficial to the customer base not just bringing something new out every 4 months because it has a new bell added to it.

that Nikon no longer wants to comptete on the high res pro DSLR
camera line.

Based on Nikon's past history, I would have to say that you will NEVER hear these words. Just because Nikon doesn't introduce something on your timeline doesn't mean they're abandoning the market. In fact, Canon has introduced only THREE Pro bodies (1D, 1DS, 1DMKII) to Nikon's FOUR (D1, D1H, D1X, D2H). Whilst the D2H may not have the features YOU need it does offer significant advances over it's predecessors and is a fine machine for the tasks in which it's designed.

I'm still waiting to see Canon design a digtal body from the ground up as Nikon did with the D2H. Canon's ergonomics don't match Nikons even with their latest and greatest MKII not to mention battery life, weight, etc.

On Ebay D1x cameras are for sale for just over a
thousand or so dollars with few bids even at that price.

Please show me some D1X's that can be purchased legitimately for 1000 dollars. In fact sir, I'll make you a pledge, you buy a properly functioning D1X for 1000 dollars and I'll give you 1500 for it on the spot.

I am a little concerned that Nikon has given up on the pro level
DSLR line and simpley wants to sell to the masses at the news
photographers and pro-sumer level and below.

A matter of prioritizing and survival. Which do you think is a larger market? The Pro level camera or the consumer digicam/DSLR? It would seem to me that without an answer to the Rebel 300D, Nikon would lose all those consumer level folks that would NEVER own anything with a Nikon name on it. Then what?

Just who pays the bills at Nikon, the Pro shooters or the mass consumers? Build a camera that appeals to the masses, and that keeps Nikon afloat and gives them funding to do R&D on the higher end stuff. Just remember, the bottom feeds the top here.

The technology has evolved and there is sufficient improvements to
create a competative next level camera but Nikon has not (in this
area). If they were going to come out with something shouldn't it
have appeared by now. At this rate every major manufacturer will
have come out with a high end DSLR high resolution camera except
Nikon.

Exactly WHICH manufacturer(S) are you referring to? Olympus, Sony (wait they don't MAKE a DSLR), Pentax, Fuji? Ohhhh, wait....there's only ONE (CANON). Other then Canon NONE of these companies even make a PRO body today!

When the D1 split, Nikon announced the H and the X versions very
close together and then released them within a short time of one
another. Why would this offering be different if there was a D2x
in the wings?

Just because this is the way Nikon did it ONCE doesn't mean this is how they will ALWAYS do it.

Typically cameras like most technology devices evolve in
approximately 18 month or 2 year increments to keep sales and
competition satisfied. Where is Nikon?

Please show me your market research to support the above claim. Canon took 27 months between the announcement of the 1d to 1d MKII. Even the "Industry Leader" took longer then your 18-24 months. I don't think enough DSLR's have been released to even form an opinion on this claim.

DSLR's are not just cameras but systems, it seems
likely that Nikon would not want to jeprodize losing a whole
generation of potential system customers to another brand because
the foundation of the system (the camera body) is not being made
available.

How about this? Give me a percentage maket share of pro's vs consumer cameras sold by Nikon?

All those who have gone to Canon or first time buyers
who chose Canon or what ever will never go to Nikonbecause they
will own other companies glass.

Hence again the D70 which appeals to the first time buyers because of the features/quality vs the competition in the same market.

If they are to be competative for the future they must release
something soon

They have to release something soon? Say's who?? Based on FACT and History, Nikon has never been a company to rest on it's laurels. They are always developing new technology. Just because it's not at the pace of Canon doesn't mean they've quit. The D2H is PROOF of this as it's a completely new body and sensor. I would think the R&D and implementation of an in-house sensor would be sufficient enough evidence to see Nikon's not abandoning anything.

How much longer are you going to wait?

I'm not waiting for anything. I have a camera today that meets my needs and works well. If and when the D2X appears and it has technology that meets my needs and enhances my ability to provide great images to my customer, then I'll invest in that.

One thing you failed to mention in your post is what your needs are and what the current technology is lacking? Are your images any less saleable today then they were yesterday?

Regards,

David Anderson

 

[Rumle]

Disclaimer: The following post is utilizes SARCASM -something that
never works on a forum. But here goes anyway.

I guess you don't vist this forum as often as I do. If so then you
would have learned the following from the people who post here:

1) The D1x is such a great camera that it still doesn't need a
replacement.

Sure it will whitout no doubt last 3 years more on the marked.

2) The D2h is "good enough" so we don't need anything better from
Nikon

I Only shoot jpg basic - 1840 x 1224 [M], it gives me spectacular prints even 20x30 prints looks fantastic!

3) More megapixels won't make for better pictures because 4mp is
perfect for enlargements way up to 20" by 30".

As I said fatastic, non compareably prints.

4) A better camera won't make you a better photographer.

It worked pretty good for me aee! Im a pro now with my D2h

5) Instead of waiting for the next big thing, we should all just go
out and take pictures.

And why is that now?

Disclaimer: I don't actually believe ANY of those statements, but
that's the type of thing you read on this forum all day long.

 

[John Ricard]

In my book a troll post is a short post that serves no purpose other than to stir up trouble. If someone writes, "The Nikon cameras all suck and Canons are better," that is a trolling post.

But the original poster gave a detailed view of his opinion of Nikon's current place in the market and his belief of where the company is headed. His post was well written and made sense. You may choose to disagree with his beliefs and post your own detailed responses -which you did very well.

But I don't think it's fair to call his post "trolling" just because you didn't agree with it.

 

[James Bostwick]

Sadly, I agree with much of what you've said. But there's another issue here: some of us really like Nikon lenses and camera bodies and don't like Canon's equivalent. It is discouraging that Nikon is slow to release new products and seems to have fallen behind in the high-end market. However, I would be more likely to leave Nikon for Olympus or Pentax then Canon (and I'm sure I'm not the only one), and they're even further behind the demand.

I'm not sure what sort of weird corporate culture has possessed Nikon to make some of the bizarre business decisions it has implemented in it's professional line, but things will eventually work out. At some time in the hopefully not-too-distant future, most of your major players will finally have products that exceed the current 1DS. And once the technology is encroaching on medium format, how much higher do you need to go?

If I thought for one minute that Nikon executives regularly read these forums and would be pressed by our complaining to move things forward more quickly, I'd say ***** away. But you know, I don't see anything being posted here as making any sort of difference to Nikon management or playing a significant role in their business development meetings. So until then, we're just venting therapeuticaly for our own short-term benefit.

--
Regards,
James Bostwick

 

[gwprovost]

Nikon's chosen path is a DSLR dead-end. Their future in the field is limited by their decision to stay exclusively with the DX sensor. The D2x is being held back because it can't compete with the 1DII, and things are going to get worse for Nikon this fall when Canon upgrades the 10D and/or the 1Ds.

wondering how long we will have to wait before we know for sure
that Nikon no longer wants to comptete on the high res pro DSLR
camera line.

They want to compete, but they're not able to with the DX sensor.

On Ebay D1x cameras are for sale for just over a
thousand or so dollars with few bids even at that price.

Lots of D1x cameras are selling for $2,000 to $2,500. Check the "completed" items.

I am a little concerned that Nikon has given up on the pro level
DSLR line and simpley wants to sell to the masses at the news
photographers and pro-sumer level and below. Needless to say they
will never make that announcement but at some point, might we be
able to assume that what we have been waiting so long for just is
not coming. My questioin is how long must we wait before we find
out that there really is no D2x or D3 coming.

If you care about resolution, Nikon has already made the only announcement you need to hear. They are sticking with the DX sensor and have no plans for anything larger.

When the D1 split, Nikon announced the H and the X versions very
close together and then released them within a short time of one
another. Why would this offering be different if there was a D2x
in the wings?

There's no way Nikon would have released the D2h at 4mp if they hadn't planned to balance their product line with a D2x at 8mp. They obviously planned to split the pixels just as they did with the D1h. Unfortunately their Lbcast sensor is already a little noisy at 4mp and simply can't compete at a half-pixel-size 8mp.

Where is Nikon?

They're coasting, trading on their name, enjoying their profit margin on the Lbcast sensor, selling gear to newbies (the D70) and to long-time users who are already invested in their system.

Nikon would not want to jeprodize losing...customers...

They're already losing them. For every photographer who considers switching to Nikon, there are dozens, even hundreds, switching away from Nikon.

If they are to be competative for the future they must release
something soon...

Again, all you need to know is that Nikon says they are sticking with the DX sensor. As long as that holds true, they cannot compete above the 6mp level with other manufacturers who use larger sensors. It's a simple fact of physics and optics.

...I am becoming ever more skeptical.
I have a ton of Nikon glass that I don't want to dump at discount
prices yet and I don't want to buy a D70 or D2h.
How much longer are you going to wait?

You're right to be skeptical, and you shouldn't wait. If you care about anything more than 6mp, sell now while prices are still good. There are still plenty of eager buyers who have bought into the "megapixels don't matter" siren song.

As for the knee-jerk Nikon apologists who throw the "troll" word around in lieu of reasonable discussion, don't bother. Try posting something logical or sensible instead, if you can.

 

[Chris Charlton]

It seems Canon has a big announcement to make in September:

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1032&message=9330690

I hope Nikon can get their new camera out by then or earlier so that Canon can't charge monopolistic prices for its DSLR's which is what it seems to be doing; competition is good.

Chris

Just curious when you think the next replacement for the D1x is
likely to be announced and where. Don't particularly want
speculation on how many pixels or how many shots per sec or any
other specs as this has been done and done.

I am as frustrated as all of you must be and just want to get a
sense of when we might likely see something. I guess I also am
wondering how long we will have to wait before we know for sure
that Nikon no longer wants to comptete on the high res pro DSLR
camera line.

It sort of appears that the DX lens line is intended for the D70 /
D2h line. On Ebay D1x cameras are for sale for just over a
thousand or so dollars with few bids even at that price.

I am a little concerned that Nikon has given up on the pro level
DSLR line and simpley wants to sell to the masses at the news
photographers and pro-sumer level and below. Needless to say they
will never make that announcement but at some point, might we be
able to assume that what we have been waiting so long for just is
not coming. My questioin is how long must we wait before we find
out that there really is no D2x or D3 coming.

The technology has evolved and there is sufficient improvements to
create a competative next level camera but Nikon has not (in this
area). If they were going to come out with something shouldn't it
have appeared by now. At this rate every major manufacturer will
have come out with a high end DSLR high resolution camera except
Nikon.

When the D1 split, Nikon announced the H and the X versions very
close together and then released them within a short time of one
another. Why would this offering be different if there was a D2x
in the wings?

Typically cameras like most technology devices evolve in
approximately 18 month or 2 year increments to keep sales and
competition satisfied. Where is Nikon?

DSLR sales are frequently decided on by which lenses one has
invested in. DSLR's are not just cameras but systems, it seems
likely that Nikon would not want to jeprodize losing a whole
generation of potential system customers to another brand because
the foundation of the system (the camera body) is not being made
available. All those who have gone to Canon or first time buyers
who chose Canon or what ever will never go to Nikonbecause they
will own other companies glass. Every day hundreds of others
around the world are making a decision which system to invest in
for high res camera system potential are chosing another maker of
cameras because they are afraid Nikon will not be competative in
the future.

If they are to be competative for the future they must release
something soon to tell those who are spending (lots of) money on
lenses and accessories that there will be a steady flow of new
technology as it becomes available. i am not seening this and i am
becoming ever more skeptical.

I have a ton of Nikon glass that I don't want to dump at discount
prices yet and I don't want to buy a D70 or D2h.

How much longer are you going to wait?
--
Scott Sherman
http://www.interactivephotos.com

 

[Walter Freiberger]

FF in effect means just that noise performance will be better by one f-stop given the same level of technology.

Just take a 200 f/2 lens instead of a 300/2.8 lens and you get the same output with a smaller lens.

Soon, and we can hope with the arrival of the D2x this september, noise performance of DX sized sensors will be good ennough for a 12mp all around pro level DSLR.

10-12mp DX format prosumer DSLRs will become common this fall / next spring (Canon 10D MK II, Nikon D200, Fuji S3,...).

Walter

wondering how long we will have to wait before we know for sure
that Nikon no longer wants to comptete on the high res pro DSLR
camera line.

They want to compete, but they're not able to with the DX sensor.

On Ebay D1x cameras are for sale for just over a
thousand or so dollars with few bids even at that price.

Lots of D1x cameras are selling for $2,000 to $2,500. Check the
"completed" items.

I am a little concerned that Nikon has given up on the pro level
DSLR line and simpley wants to sell to the masses at the news
photographers and pro-sumer level and below. Needless to say they
will never make that announcement but at some point, might we be
able to assume that what we have been waiting so long for just is
not coming. My questioin is how long must we wait before we find
out that there really is no D2x or D3 coming.

If you care about resolution, Nikon has already made the only
announcement you need to hear. They are sticking with the DX sensor
and have no plans for anything larger.

When the D1 split, Nikon announced the H and the X versions very
close together and then released them within a short time of one
another. Why would this offering be different if there was a D2x
in the wings?

There's no way Nikon would have released the D2h at 4mp if they
hadn't planned to balance their product line with a D2x at 8mp.
They obviously planned to split the pixels just as they did with
the D1h. Unfortunately their Lbcast sensor is already a little
noisy at 4mp and simply can't compete at a half-pixel-size 8mp.

Where is Nikon?

They're coasting, trading on their name, enjoying their profit
margin on the Lbcast sensor, selling gear to newbies (the D70) and
to long-time users who are already invested in their system.

Nikon would not want to jeprodize losing...customers...

They're already losing them. For every photographer who considers
switching to Nikon, there are dozens, even hundreds, switching away
from Nikon.

If they are to be competative for the future they must release
something soon...

Again, all you need to know is that Nikon says they are sticking
with the DX sensor. As long as that holds true, they cannot compete
above the 6mp level with other manufacturers who use larger
sensors. It's a simple fact of physics and optics.

...I am becoming ever more skeptical.
I have a ton of Nikon glass that I don't want to dump at discount
prices yet and I don't want to buy a D70 or D2h.
How much longer are you going to wait?

You're right to be skeptical, and you shouldn't wait. If you care
about anything more than 6mp, sell now while prices are still good.
There are still plenty of eager buyers who have bought into the
"megapixels don't matter" siren song.

As for the knee-jerk Nikon apologists who throw the "troll" word
around in lieu of reasonable discussion, don't bother. Try posting
something logical or sensible instead, if you can.

 

[Timage]

I couldn't say it any better than you did.
That's exactly what I've been thinking the last 18 month.

Photokina is D-Day. The Company that brings out the best high MP Cam has my money.

I've been waiting too long for this now. I have that bad feeling it's going to be Canon.

And I will have to sell all my nikon glass and gear. But i don't care any more, because it will take at least 2 years after Photokina till a new High MP cam will be out.
So Nikon, you better do it right this time.

Tim

 

[ghpoty]

I am not waiting the replacement as I am not really sure I would need such a camera. The technology has advance and I found D2H or even the D70 have much better static image quality. It is now on my list to get a D70 instead of selling my D1x for the so call D2x.

GH
---
http://www.photos-of-the-year.com/

 

[Ron Frank]

Just curious when you think the next replacement for the D1x is
likely to be announced and where. Don't particularly want
speculation on how many pixels or how many shots per sec or any
other specs as this has been done and done.

I am as frustrated as all of you must be and just want to get a
sense of when we might likely see something. I guess I also am
wondering how long we will have to wait before we know for sure
that Nikon no longer wants to comptete on the high res pro DSLR
camera line.

I too would like to see Nikon put out a high res DLSR, but I guess it also depends upon the price.

However Nikon DOES compete very nicely in the DLSR market....The DSLR market that 35mm camera's complete in.

My D1x replaced my F4s quite nicely.

So the market that the 1Ds complete in is NOT really 35mm so much as replacing MF. The new Phase I back blows the 1Ds out of the water with 50mm MORE resolution on a chip that is MUCH larger then the FF Canon chip.

At 30K or 16K for the 16mpix version, this is a BIG price jump. However we are no longer discussing tools for the amateur, and a studio can spend 30K on processing and film in a few months.

So IMO THAT is the market that huge resolution chips on a 35mm type DSLR is attempting to compete in NOT the traditional 35mm market.

I am a little concerned that Nikon has given up on the pro level
DSLR line and simpley wants to sell to the masses at the news
photographers and pro-sumer level and below.

The D2x is a reality, and the D2H IS a pro level camera... When and what the D2x will be remains to be seen.

The technology has evolved and there is sufficient improvements to
create a competative next level camera but Nikon has not (in this
area). If they were going to come out with something shouldn't it
have appeared by now. At this rate every major manufacturer will
have come out with a high end DSLR high resolution camera except
Nikon.

Hardly.... NO other manufacture other than Canon has a DSLR with resolution greater than 6mpix. Nikon had a near 6mpix camera (d1x) on the market three years ago, so Nikon was WAY ahead of the game at that point...how quickly everyone forgets. The Foveon chip remains 3.2 mpix, but they boast three times that amount based on the ability to capture three colors..hmm.. Fuji has similar tactics with the Super CCD. Both chips are good, but R they what they say they are in the mpix bean counting department? IMO no.

I have a ton of Nikon glass that I don't want to dump at discount
prices yet and I don't want to buy a D70 or D2h.

How much longer are you going to wait?

I'm not, in fact I purchase the D1x two years ago, and have been shooting digital ever since. I guess a better question is what RU attempting to achieve with digital, and why are you NOT in the game NOW?

Ron

 

[maxz]

They're already losing them. For every photographer who considers
switching to Nikon, there are dozens, even hundreds, switching away
from Nikon.

that's the funniest stuff i heard lately. In the past 3 years canon managed to produce 20k+ units of 1D, that included 'thousands and thousands of switchers', wannabes, newbies, previous D30 users, dead-on-arrival units, rentals. Nikon now makes 90k units of D70 per month, and you need to be lucky to find one in store. you really don't know how silly your statement sounded...

You're right to be skeptical, and you shouldn't wait. If you care
about anything more than 6mp, sell now while prices are still good.
There are still plenty of eager buyers who have bought into the
"megapixels don't matter" siren song.

sorry peter that sounds too much canon-troll like, you could do better... ;-)

 

[gwprovost]

FF in effect means just that noise performance will be better by
one f-stop given the same level of technology.

Just take a 200 f/2 lens instead of a 300/2.8 lens and you get the
same output with a smaller lens.

I understand and accept your point (though I don't know how accurate the one f-stop figure is) but of course there are other important benefits to the larger sensors, chiefly the full usage of wide-angle lenses and the ability to crop further into the photo while retaining required resolution.

Soon, and we can hope with the arrival of the D2x this september,
noise performance of DX sized sensors will be good ennough for a
12mp all around pro level DSLR.

To get 12mp on a DX sensor would require pixel-pitch of less than 5.6 microns. That would be far, far smaller than any pro or prosumer DSLR that has ever existed. The resulting negative effect on the signal/noise ratio makes the chance of that (12mp DX sensor) happening essentially zero.

10-12mp DX format prosumer DSLRs will become common this fall /
next spring (Canon 10D MK II, Nikon D200, Fuji S3,...).

Not this fall, if ever. If Nikon could get a quality 8mp on a DX sensor you'd have a D2x in your hands right now. There's no way they can put 10mp or 12mp on a DX sensor in a "D" series camera and have it compare favorably with others (using larger sensors) in the field. The Canon 10D sensor at 1.6x is even smaller than the DX and is maxed out at 6.2mp. Canon could give the 10DII the 1.3x sensor from the 1DII, but even if they did it's unlikely they'd exceed the resolution of the 1DII (8mp).

Certainly, as you say, "we can hope" - but the laws of physics and optics are not subject to either our desires or Nikon's intentions.

 

[Ron Frank]

If you care about resolution, Nikon has already made the only
announcement you need to hear. They are sticking with the DX sensor
and have no plans for anything larger.

Nikon did NOT announce that... Some time in late 2003 they said that had no plans to release a FF sensor in the near future. Then again, if you would have asked Japan what their war plans were the day before the attach on Perl harbor, they would have said they had no intention to go to war!!!

There's no way Nikon would have released the D2h at 4mp if they
hadn't planned to balance their product line with a D2x at 8mp.

Where exactly do you get this information? Obviously they have plans for the D2x, but sensor size and mpix size remain unanounced, and the D2x is on the streets in prototype form.

Unfortunately their Lbcast sensor is already a little
noisy at 4mp and simply can't compete at a half-pixel-size 8mp.

With the thin AA filter, and very passive in camera sharpening, the D2H may appear to be a little noisy. I'd point out that D2H noise is easily eliminated post processing. It comes down to does one want extreme in camera sharpening via AA and large amounts of processing, or not. There are pros and cons either way, I personally like a more native image out of camera, and the ability to get a cleaner out of camera image via the thin AA filter.

They're already losing them. For every photographer who considers
switching to Nikon, there are dozens, even hundreds, switching away
from Nikon.

Based on your numbers, Nikon would end up with a 1% market share in less than a year.

The D70 is selling well, and the D2H is JUST now becoming easily available via local shops. The 200-400VR lens is sold out and hard to find as is the DX 18-70f2.8.

Nikon is selling product as fast as they can make it... And the consumer D70/Rebel market is MUCH MUCH larger than the Pro market.

Again, where do you get this information?

Again, all you need to know is that Nikon says they are sticking
with the DX sensor. As long as that holds true, they cannot compete
above the 6mp level with other manufacturers who use larger
sensors. It's a simple fact of physics and optics.

So you R a sensor engineer? The Nikon 8700 has 8mpix in a chip about 1/4 the size of the current APS-C. While the 8700 2/3 chip is hardly a role model for DSLR design, it certainly proves that yes it's VERY possibe to stuff a large amount of pixels into a tiny chip. If Nikon expanded the 8700 chip to cover the APS-C size, it would result in approx a 32mg chip....

When 1mb chips were introduced, people predicted the failure of digital (or maybe I should say fools). When the 2.3 mpix chip came out, fools said digital would never work, it's too expensive. Now many are still standing on the sidelines saying this is impossible, or that will not work....

Unless one is an expert in the field of digital sensor design, I'd keep the mount shut.

You're right to be skeptical, and you shouldn't wait. If you care
about anything more than 6mp, sell now while prices are still good.
There are still plenty of eager buyers who have bought into the
"megapixels don't matter" siren song.

The Nikon AI lenses today sell for about as much as they did 10 years ago (can not say that for Canon F). Nikon glass is holding value. In fact I wish it would not as I'd love to get my hands on some newer lenses, but alas, they are selling for as much or more than Canon glass.....

As for the knee-jerk Nikon apologists who throw the "troll" word
around in lieu of reasonable discussion, don't bother. Try posting
something logical or sensible instead, if you can.

Well, it would be nice if people like yourself would post work that is not based mostly on rumors, and fiction.

Please provide some FACTS to back up all your Hype, or just admit you have no idea. Nothing wrong with having no idea, unless you act like someone who knows.

Ron