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DSLRs collapsing, Mirrorless rising in germany.
- Thread starter Mr.NoFlash
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Skeeterbytes
Forum Pro
Going from memory here, but isn't that similar to what's occurring in Japan? Either way, I believe this will be the trend, going forward.
Cheers,
Rick
Cheers,
Rick
GlovedAssassin
Member
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Interesting graphic and as a mirrorless user it is good to see growth. I'm not surprised to see DSLR drop so much. Not a huge amount of innovation at the lower end to temp existing owners to upgrade from previous few years models. That combined with mirrorless systems maturing. It will be interesting to see how this graph would look in a year or two.
JohnLock
Senior Member
Looks like 2014 was quite a bad year for 'enthusiast' cameras in general though mirrorless did a bit better than dslr. I see these high end cameras becoming a distinct niche market over time. Thanks for interesting graphing.
JL
JL
mring1
Senior Member
nobody is doing very well. Except, maybe Leica. The halcyon decade of 2000-2010 is waaaay over. I bought my E-M5 2 1/2 years ago and won't replace it for at least another 3 - 4 years, maybe longer. I just bought my 12-40, and I probably won't spend that much again for another couple of years. The US economy is recovering, which mostly helps Nikon and Canon, but the European/Japanese economies are doing poorly. That messes with everyone else. The only exception is China, and the question marks are starting to appear even there.
You can talk about percentages, but when you look at absolute numbers, they're pretty crappy...across the industry.
The market is becoming a zero sum game because the pie isn't getting any bigger, or at least not appreciably so. One company's gain is another's loss.
Technologically, I think there will be more advances will be in DR, although I'm not sure what I'd do with more than the 12 1/2 stops or so I can get with my E-M5. Convenience and connectivity will become even bigger, even for us dpReview gearheads. The companies that can do that will be successful in 2020. Those that don't won't be selling cameras.
You can talk about percentages, but when you look at absolute numbers, they're pretty crappy...across the industry.
The market is becoming a zero sum game because the pie isn't getting any bigger, or at least not appreciably so. One company's gain is another's loss.
Technologically, I think there will be more advances will be in DR, although I'm not sure what I'd do with more than the 12 1/2 stops or so I can get with my E-M5. Convenience and connectivity will become even bigger, even for us dpReview gearheads. The companies that can do that will be successful in 2020. Those that don't won't be selling cameras.
Sean Nelson
Forum Pro
Who knows, maybe this will finally be enough to get Canon to take mirrorless seriously. The longer they wait the more of their user base will have converted and be potentially lost to them.
Skeeterbytes
Forum Pro
Hard to imagine a company having their trousers around their corporate ankles for so very long, hoping/wishing/presuming mirrorless will just go away. It's a head-scratcher, especially considering their expertise and resources.
Cheers,
Rick
traveler_101
Senior Member
I may not be reading the graph correctly but it appears to me that mirrorless is bucking the general downturn, growing, albeit growing slowly. DSLR on the other hand has taken a huge hit.
The big boys face the same dilemma as Kodak did with its film business: the undisputed market leader cannot innovate without destroying its own market. But I believe that as long as the very best full frame cameras are DSLRs, Canikon will hang on. In other words, their sales depend on the reputation of their best cameras. To change that SONY (or someone else) must succeed in building a full frame mirrorless that out-does the DSLR for the full range of photography, including action photography. If (or when) mirrorless emerges as the best -- and assuming they have not anticipated that innovation -- then Canon and Nikon will be finished.
Right now Canikon must appear to be unconcerned and unimpressed with mirrorless, putting on a brave face to protect their position. Sean, do you think it would be Canon, rather than Nikon, which might be the first to flinch?
Sergey Borachev
Veteran Member
I think you are right. Mirrorless (in Germany, according to the graph and the text in the source document) in the last 5 years has been growing steadily.
This is however just Germany. Japan and I think some other smaller markets are also seeing growth for mirrorless. US is however still the dominant market and I believe still hanging on to their DSLRs, and may continue to do so for many years yet. After all, they are still using the pounds and miles, feet and quarts....
I hope neither of them flinch for another two years, and thereby give more time for others to establish themelseves, for more competition, innovation, choices, brands and less domination and blind following/faith. The world would be a much better place with less domination, control and monopoly by the ever growing number of super companies, businesses, pharmaceuticals, software companies, and other such forces and powers.
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Sean Nelson
Forum Pro
Well, "Nikon 1" is already a pretty serious mirrorless system. They tried with their 1" sensor to stake out an unoccupied space in the market, but my impression is that it hasn't been as big of a success as they would have hoped. My layman's view is that they need to move to a larger sensor to be taken seriously by the downsizers who seem to be an important part of the mirrorless market. Whether they have the inclination and/or the R&D dollars to invest in a second system is anyone's guess, but it seems less likely to me than a move by Canon.
Canon has it's EOS-M system, but it's never seemed like a very serious effort to me. I think they made the same mistake as Panasonic and Olympus did in the early days and assumed that the larger portion of the market would be people upsizing from smaller cameras rather than downsizers from larger cameras. Panasonic and Olympus saw the writing on the wall and refocused their strategy, but Canon seems to have mis-interpreted the lack of sales (as evidenced by a dramatic lowering of price) to a general disinterest in mirrorless altogether. So far their bodies and lenses have, IMHO, been underwhelming - and their refusal to sell globally hurts the credibility of their system in my view.
You'd think that Canon, with an "established" APS-C mirrorless system, would be able to ramp up pretty fast. But as a non-Canon user with no lens investment I wouldn't trust them until I saw a lot more commitment in terms of range of bodies and lenses before I would go anywhere near their system. And I'm very happy with M43 - in terms of mirrorless maturity and technical sophistication (AF, EVF, etc.) it's leading edge stuff. It would take something pretty spectacular from them before I'd even be tempted.
As time goes by, more people are going to be in my position and invested in mirrorless systems - not just M43 but also Fuji, Sony, Samsung, etc. It seems like a reaction from Canon is inevitable, but I would have said that three years ago when I was still waiting to see what they'd do before jumping into mirrorless. As far as I'm concerned, it's too late for them.
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davidedric
Veteran Member
Interesting, thanks.
I think another issue for Canikon is both of them only make their best glass in ff format. That means even the best apsc bodies still need the size, weight and cost of ff lenses.
With m4/3 you can get pro glass to fit. Yes, the prices are quite high, but they are there.
Dave
I think another issue for Canikon is both of them only make their best glass in ff format. That means even the best apsc bodies still need the size, weight and cost of ff lenses.
With m4/3 you can get pro glass to fit. Yes, the prices are quite high, but they are there.
Dave
Olymore
Senior Member
Based on those figures mirrorless has had the best year ever.
So, though the camera market may be shrinking the actual sales (not %) in Germany are increasing.
Whether they are increasing fast enough is another question but to have a 17% increase in sales in a falling market is pretty good.
So, though the camera market may be shrinking the actual sales (not %) in Germany are increasing.
Whether they are increasing fast enough is another question but to have a 17% increase in sales in a falling market is pretty good.
even more impressive the change of dslr/mirrorless ratio: in one year collapsed from 4.4/1 to 2.7/1
Olymore
Senior Member
I think the ratio isn't very important.
After all, if DSLR sales fall to 10 units and mirrorless also sells 10 units we have a one to one ratio but mirrorless is still in trouble.
As long as the actual numbers sold are going up, regardless of what is happening to the DSLR market, then it makes the mirrorless manufacturers more viable.
Assuming sales are increasing across all manufacturers of course.
After all, if DSLR sales fall to 10 units and mirrorless also sells 10 units we have a one to one ratio but mirrorless is still in trouble.
As long as the actual numbers sold are going up, regardless of what is happening to the DSLR market, then it makes the mirrorless manufacturers more viable.
Assuming sales are increasing across all manufacturers of course.
Colin K. Work
Senior Member
A problem is that economic factors are distorting things - do people prefer mirrorless, or just perceive it as cheaper (esp lenses). It's hard to separate out economic decisions from photographic ones.
Also I think DSLRs have reached the point of rapidly diminishing returns. A 2015 camera is not that much better than a 2010 camera compared to the differences from 2005-2010, or even more extreme 2000-2005. The DSLR market is bound to be less influenced by upgrading than it has been in the past. Perhaps more people are happy with what they've got.
Perhaps a more interesting picture would be a comparison of first time buyers, or upgraders from compact cameras.
Gone for Good
Senior Member
That is the American mantra. The other two words are " Free and all you can eat." The Chinese for their part are in love with "names." If Beseler Topcon was the name camera, they would all buy it, regardless.
well, could have some impact on shelf space given to M43 in photo shops.
As a user of both systems, I do not see the need for either Nikon or Canon to adapt. Both systems can, and will coexist . I am quite comfortable using my Nikon D7100 just as I do the Olympus E-M5I repainted the image in order to honor copyright.
Source with better graphic, and the numbers in sold thousand units:
http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Nach-Stagnation-kommt-Sturzflug-Kameramarkt-2014-2557625.html
I posted this also in the news forum ( I know that I am allowed to post it in not more than 2 forums )
--
cheers
Mr.NoFlash
What is the beef anyway? The MFT system is not that small especially with some of the newer lenses that are being manufactured, and I can not say that I like EVF over optical or optical over EVF. They both have their good points and bad. There as never been a time in this industry where we are absolutely spoilt for great photographic equipment , but we need to embrace this, rather than knocking it.
I think that rather than saying that Canikon should change, my opinion is that we are the ones who need to change. I am older now, but I have never felt that a DSLR was too heavy to carry around, but that's me.
franschhoek
Well-known member
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Interesting stats which echo those from Japan and which begs 2 observation:
Beware of market definition. The relative share of Mirrorless versus DSLR is distorted by the fact that top premium cameras like Sony D7R are reported under mirrorless despite their hefty prices.
Beware of selective fates. It reminds me of the cartoon of 2 guys sitting on opposite ends of a boat with one saying to the other ¨you are sinking¨. Mirrorless may be flat whilst DSLR in on a sharp downtrend but the camera market is declining and as a result mirrorless source of growth too.
It simply emphasizes that the photo enthusiasts here are a declining crowd and for the majority who are not really discerning a smart phone or a tablet does the job as long as you just post on the social networks or send pictures to a short-sighted granny.
Beware of market definition. The relative share of Mirrorless versus DSLR is distorted by the fact that top premium cameras like Sony D7R are reported under mirrorless despite their hefty prices.
Beware of selective fates. It reminds me of the cartoon of 2 guys sitting on opposite ends of a boat with one saying to the other ¨you are sinking¨. Mirrorless may be flat whilst DSLR in on a sharp downtrend but the camera market is declining and as a result mirrorless source of growth too.
It simply emphasizes that the photo enthusiasts here are a declining crowd and for the majority who are not really discerning a smart phone or a tablet does the job as long as you just post on the social networks or send pictures to a short-sighted granny.
franschhoek
Well-known member
- Messages
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- Reaction score
- 146
interesting stats which echo those from Japan and which begs 2 observation:
Beware of market definition. The relative share of Mirrorless versus DSLR is distorted by the fact that top premium cameras like Sony D7R are reported under mirrorless despite their hefty prices.
Beware of selective fates. It reminds me of the cartoon of 2 guys sitting on opposite ends of a boat with one saying to the other ¨you are sinking¨. Mirrorless may be flat whilst DSLR in on a sharp downtrend but the camera market is declining and as a result mirrorless source of growth too.
It simply emphasizes that the photo enthusiasts here are a declining crowd and for the majority who are not really discerning a smart phone or a tablet does the job as long as you just post on the social networks or send pictures to a short-sighted granny
Beware of market definition. The relative share of Mirrorless versus DSLR is distorted by the fact that top premium cameras like Sony D7R are reported under mirrorless despite their hefty prices.
Beware of selective fates. It reminds me of the cartoon of 2 guys sitting on opposite ends of a boat with one saying to the other ¨you are sinking¨. Mirrorless may be flat whilst DSLR in on a sharp downtrend but the camera market is declining and as a result mirrorless source of growth too.
It simply emphasizes that the photo enthusiasts here are a declining crowd and for the majority who are not really discerning a smart phone or a tablet does the job as long as you just post on the social networks or send pictures to a short-sighted granny
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