Panasonic SLR only a month away!

Quote:
"Matsushita's move to challenge these established market leaders is
being made by releasing a flagship product: a digital SLR camera,
which it is hoped will provide a major boost to the firm's digital
camera business."

Lets take the sentence apart.

Matsushita is moving to challege 'established market leaders'
Interpretation: market share leaders
by releasing a 'flagship digital SLR camera'
That's your construction.

They have talked about their motives for this elsewhere too,
by making "DSLRs" they will be seen as a more serious player.
(Helping them sell more cameras of all kinds, and at better
prices - for them, i.e. higher.)
Hence I believe that's why there's ben no similar level Oly to
compete against it. (why release similar models that will only take
bread from each others mouth?)
Oly said they had problems finding an appropriate sensor (high MP but
not too much noise on a sensor smaller than other DSLRs). Also a
pro body would sell in small numbers and make less economical sense
for a company whose R&D and production capacity is limited.
It seems you are saying we'll never see another Pro based dSLR from
Oly?
Absolutely not, just that they are delayed, as is painfully apparent for
some E-1 owners. The E-1 successor is rumoured to be mentioned at
PMA, announced at Photokina and sold beginning of 2007. Whatever's
the correct time frame, no doubt they want to go that way.

If they spend resources making a very expensive body, perhaps
prematurely released, it won't help them much. Cameras like the
E-500 and probably the E-330 makes more sense. Now, havning those
selling and attracting new people to the system, they can
concentrate their efforts on the E-1 successor.
It makes sense to release 'a good 'un' first (like Oly did with the
E-1)
All manufacturers did, but back then the sensor cost was so
astronomical that the body price was bound to be very high to cover
that, and in that case, why not make a body that matches the
price while you are at it?

I agree with Phil that it would have been better to release an entry
model first to increase the market share, but I think it wasn't
possible to meet the price point back then.
Yes, but them you are always marketting against the grain. You're
salesmen are gonna have to say 'This is what we brought out but we
can do better.. honest! We could have put 'X, Y & Z' feature and
settings in but we're gonna put them in the next one... we can do
it and do it well.. take my word for it'.

Nah... reviewers and punters without seeing the hardware would be
sceptical.

better to bring out the biggest and baddest first.. then lesser
cameras are 'lesser on purpose' while everyone can see the high
standard. No, I believe this way is best.
Not for the reasons you state, IMHO.

K-M is a counter-example. The 7D sold poorly (and got criticised by Phil)
due to high price. If sensor prices had allowed them to launch the 5D
as a first body and at a competitive price, they would probably still be
in business.
No-one wuld have bought
into 4/3rds if they'd brought out the E-300/500 first! Who'd have
bought the 300/2.8, etc, if all you've seen is a prosumer dSLR?
I think the number of sold 300/2.8 is insignificant for Oly.

Probably the 14-54 and 50-200 are their best profit makers,
lenses bought by E-300 and E-500 owners too.
Going back to the Panny 4/3rds body, of course it could be an
expensive affair. The high-spec EVF, Leica cooperation, a Leica
version Digilux 2 successor suggest that. But Panny's late entry,
the fierce market situation, Panny's goal to double their market share
and the aggressive pricing they have applied so far suggest a
more competitive price is possible. I hope for something around the
350D's price.
I'd say a high end amateur body.. a good all-rounder but not as
specialist as a 'pro' level one.

Come on Erik, you know it just makes all round sense! ;-)
I guess we'll see the 26th. :-)

Three more argument for non-pro level for their first body:
1) upgrade path for current FZ users
2) Panasonic not a respected name among pros (yet!), who
tend to be a bit conservative and brand-concious.
3) A pro body would help Oly sell their pro glass, not optimal for Panny.
Better for them to go for the less well covered budget lens section
(to start with) and of course a body to go with such lenses.

Just my two öre
Erik from Sweden, F Z 5 owner
The only free lunch in photography: O I S

 
If its very pricey then pannie are dead meat........
I guess you mean their "DSLR" adventure is dead meat. Quite possible.
They are so big that their whole still camera section can't be found
in their annual report even with a magnifying glass. (I've tried! :-)
A good price EVF E-500 type cam has potential....but it has to be a
damn good EVF...and not the half baked mess that Oly have being the
E-330
Yes, here's hoping. And I would like to be positively surprised on the
lens front too.

Just my two öre
Erik from Sweden, F Z 5 owner
The only free lunch in photography: O I S

 
  • Serious photographers who need more MP and low light, low noise capability.
  • Those who are not locked into a particular lens system because they have a large investment in these lenses.
  • It will not appeal to the real professionals who are still in a MP war and have a large investment in lenses even though their clients or employers probably paid for the equipment.
  • Existing DSLR users who want a smaller/lighter system.
  • Those who have a stable of cameras and need another.
  • Those who lust for anything that has the Leica brand on it.
--
Neil
 
  • No mirror, will use a prism
Like the E-10/20?

My guess, no mirror or prism, just straight on to
the main sensor, like a FLD.
  • 2 sensors, 10mp for image, 8mp for LCD
My guess, 1 sensor, 7.38 MP.
  • Image stabilization
Not in body, but in lenses.
  • Leica designed lenses
designed or QC'd and badged
  • Low noise high ISO
Like the E-330, which is better than the Kodak effort but not on
par with larger sensors.

If they use your prism idea, noise will be worse due to loss of light.
  • High burst rate in RAW
Yes, why not, would be nice.
  • Will use 4+ gig SD cards
No opinion.
  • Similar in size and weight to FZ30
Smallest DSLR so far.
  • Live Histogram for luminence as well as RGB
Luminence for sure, hopefully RGB but maybe not
  • Improved low light focusing
Yes.
  • Very high end and expensive lenses availible from Leica
Maybe
  • More and faster focusing modes.
Possible.
  • Starting price with a kit lens of $1200 US
They'd better make it very good then. :-)

I think they have to go lower if they want to sell.
350D level. They'll make money from selling OIS lenses.
And, from upping their margins on future digicams!
a main motivation!

I'd like to add:
  • tilt LCD
  • dust buster (Oly license)
Just my two öre
Erik from Sweden, F Z 5 owner
The only free lunch in photography: O I S

 
Kirwin, I already have a 20D with clean ISO at 800, but I am really after a silent shutter model for my bird photography. My Canon commitment is for sports action where it is unbeatable, but I have cash and am willing to use it if the right product came along, and in this fast changing world with PMA around the corner I guess one should never say 'never'....
--
Kevin Coppalotti
http://razorsharp.smugmug.com
 
Hi Erik,

I take it from your sensor guess, that you think it will be the one from the E-330. I thought so too, until I read that there is a time limit for Mode B Live View on the E-330 of around 8 minutes and hot pixels start appearing after that. This limitation wouldn't seem to be a good way to do an EVF. This means we may have another 4/3rds sensor, probably taylored to the Venus Engine and to me that is good news....more the merrier...:-)
--
Bob Ross
http://www.pbase.com/rossrtx
 
Hi Neil,

Erik addressed it in his reference to Oly's E-10 & 20. Skipping any light diversion and letting the main sensor do the work is more efficient. I don't know for sure if this gets more difficult as sensors get larger, though it would take more processing power. The Sony R-1 does it this way.

BTW, live histogram is the most accurate at working aperture. The live histograms on many digicams bears no resemblence to the histogram on the final capture, since it is obtained when the lens is open for viewing. It can and I think is corrected on some cameras, but the formulas don't always match the actual light at working aperture. Good gadget, but sometimes deceptive. Using dual sensors would require matching sensor output to get anything accurate enough for histograms.
--
Bob Ross
http://www.pbase.com/rossrtx
 
Hi Neil,
Erik addressed it in his reference to Oly's E-10 & 20. Skipping any
light diversion and letting the main sensor do the work is more
efficient. I don't know for sure if this gets more difficult as
sensors get larger, though it would take more processing power. The
Sony R-1 does it this way.
BTW, live histogram is the most accurate at working aperture. The
live histograms on many digicams bears no resemblence to the
histogram on the final capture, since it is obtained when the lens
is open for viewing. It can and I think is corrected on some
cameras, but the formulas don't always match the actual light at
working aperture. Good gadget, but sometimes deceptive. Using dual
sensors would require matching sensor output to get anything
accurate enough for histograms.
--
Bob Ross
http://www.pbase.com/rossrtx
Bob, Thanks for the info. I set my camera on manual pointing at my desktop and zeroed in the exposure. As I changed the aperature the histogram did not change. I then set it on Program and changed the EV and the histogram shifted as one would expect. What is going on here?

BTW - I checked out your gallery. You have a real cool collection of old cameras!

--
Neil
 
Lets take the sentence apart.

Matsushita is moving to challege 'established market leaders' by
releasing a 'flagship digital SLR camera' which is hoped to, blah,
blah, blah.

I read that as Panny is releasing a high end dSLR.
You could be right.

But prior to the release fo their DSLR, what is the flagship? FZ30 used to be the flagship...and before that, the FZ20 was (right?)

A 4/3 DSLR with changeable lenses would make for a new flagship.

Therefore, it cannot be known for sure that flagship will refer to a high end camera...since any form of DSLR would automatically fill the role of flagship for a company that does NOT already have a DSLR.

--

Life is like a roll of TOILET PAPER; the closer you get to the end, the faster it goes.
 
The problem I see for Panasonic is what wiill be the market
segment it will compete against? Take Canon for example, they have
low (XT) Medium (20D) and HIgh (5d, 1ds etc). Pana will never be
able to compete against the High end, so that leaves the medium or
low end of the market. It is an unknown quantity in DSLR so it will
be unable to charge a premium price against Canon and Nikon with
their full suite of lenses and accessories.
Matsushita has been a member of the 4/3rds consortium for 2 years, which is plenty of time to get some impressive cameras ready - particularly with the Olympus engineers consulting with them and sharing Olympus resources.

Panasonic currently has about 14 digital still cameras in their lineup - why would they introduce just 1 dSLR? They have about 25 different consumer video camcorders in their lineup - why would they introduce just 1 dSLR?

My guess is they will introduce at least 3, or possibly 4 dSLRs:

1. They will have a very low priced, budget model which will under-sell every other dSLR on the market at $499 for body only. This camera will be similar to the Olympus E-330, but will have an electronic viewfinder only - and no optical viewfinder at all.

2. The 2nd camera will be a mid-priced dSLR which is intended to compete against the Nikon D200 and Canon 20D in price and performance. 10 megapixels, 5 fps, wireless flash, etc. $1,500 U.S.

3. The 3rd camera will be like the 2nd one, except for minor styling changes and it will wear the Leica label and red dot.

4. The 4th camera will be the "flagship." and will lead the industry in high resolution. It will use 3 of the 7.5 megapixel CMOS sensors like found in the Olympus E-330, rated at 21 megapixels and out-classing the Canon 1DsMkII by a wide margin in resolution.

The 4/3rds standard makes no mention of the imaging sensor's shape, physical dimensions, or how many of them can be used in a camera - the specification only refers to the diameter of the image circle. This leaves the door open for designs using 2 or 3 imaging sensors. And if 2 or 3 imaging sensors are to be used, who better to design and manufacture the camera than Matsushita?

Matsushita is an industry leader in producing 3-chip video cameras, and has no less than eight 3-chip camcorders in their consumer video lineup - not to mention their 3-chip broadcast quality television cameras. They unquestionably have the patents, engineering, and manufacturing expertise necessary for producing 3-chip cameras.

Now, some skeptics claim that making a 3-chip still camera is too difficult and can't be accomplished. These skeptics will be referred to the Minolta RD-175, which was a viable 3-chip dSLR from 10 years ago:

http://www.epi-centre.com/reports/9605cs.html

Don't under-estimate what Matsushita's 3-chip technology can do. Don't under-estimate what 4/3rds can do.
 
Interesting post!

I also have a lot of faith in Panasonic. And I believe they will be making
more than one model in time, perhaps already this year.

But I think for PMA, there will be only one (and I'm not counting
your number 3., if made; that will be introduced as a Leica, by Leica.).

Your comparison with their fixed lens digitals doesn't apply, IMHO,
since the sale numbers vs manufacturing costs are so much more
favourable than for a DSLR.

They have to weigh manufacturing/R&D costs for a sensor against
the sales volume. Making a chip for both the E-330 and their own
body gets the numbers up which makes sense.

If they make more than one Panasonic labelled body, they will
all use the same sensor at this stage. And I can't see your number 1
cheap entry model using the same sensor as a D200 competitos, so
that scenario is out (for me).

Regarding 3 chip, seems people dismissed it on the News Forum
(see 1-2 weeks ago). And making a top pro model would be a
pointless display of engineering excellence since pros don't yet have
faith in Panasonic or even the 4/3 system in enough numbers to
stop it from being very poor business.

I think they will aim between your number 1 and 2, I think 350D
price level or slightly above. (Selling points: EVF/tilt LCD and OIS
kit lens(es).)

Just my two öre
Erik from Sweden, F Z 5 owner
The only free lunch in photography: O I S

 
Yes I know about that limit and I agree it's a drawback,
but it is 8 minutes only for iso 1600. For iso 100, I seem to
remember a quote of hours.

If they equip it with a sleep mode that wakes the camera up
instantaneously on any input I think they can keep the sensor
cool. Maybe a proximity sensor for the EVF like K-M did. Then
as soon as you take the camera from your face, the camera
gets a "rest".

Not ideal, but maybe a possibility.

I doubt they will make another sensor at this point due to
cost/volume considerations.

Just my two öre
Erik from Sweden, F Z 5 owner
The only free lunch in photography: O I S

 
To get people to buy this instead of a conventional
DSLR, they have to utilise every selling aspect an
EVF/live LCD system has to offer, and tilt LCD is a
major such feature. We see tilt LCDs on some
moderately priced cameras from other manufaturers,
so I think its cost isn't substantial compared to
all the other expenses of a DSLR body.

High angle view LCD sounds like a battery drainer to
my ears.

I guess we'll see.

Just my two öre
Erik from Sweden, F Z 5 owner
The only free lunch in photography: O I S

 
If its a E-330 then they can shove it! No thanks!

Also EVF is most def inferior to optical...i can see a place for two seperate cameras one EVF one optical...no optical and people wont take them as a serious player...
 
Also EVF is most def inferior to optical...
Let's assume they've improved it enough to make it
only marginally worse WRT resolution and lag. Then the
many extra features of an EVF might more than
compensate for it in the eyes of many potential
buyers. And while the OVF of a cropped sensor DSLR
is always limited in brightness and size by the mirror,
an EVF can be made as bright and large as desired.

Just my two öre
Erik from Sweden, F Z 5 owner
The only free lunch in photography: O I S

 
So Sony, Kodak, Oly, Pana, KM all bottom feeding for market share against a low end Canon and Nikon both of which have a complete suite of lenses and accesories and a proven upgrade path.

I think there will be a bloodbath at the bottom end. Honestly, given the risky nature of a brand new DSLR like Pana, who would buy it?, I just cannot think of a customer profile to suit, unless they are currently in a mental asylum and due for release on feb 26th.

The only way to entice people to buy this will be Price, a low, low price and reading these forums there are plenty of people who love a 'bargain'.
I just cannot see a way to make this beast 'fly'.
--
Kevin Coppalotti
http://razorsharp.smugmug.com
 
would just be using standard Olympus lenses.>

Whilst not wishing to cast doubt on the quality of Olympus optics, the FZ range has relied on the Leica name as one of it's best sales features.

However, to equip the new DSLR with even one extra lens by Leica would place it out of the ball park for most amateurs, unless Leica come up with something less than their usual standard of perfection, which they won't.

Fifty-year-old Leica 50mm Summicron lenses are fetching $600-plus on Ebay.

Personally, I thing Panasonic are making a mistake in trying to compete with Nikon etc., even if they "rebadge" Olympus lenses.

If they take the existing FZ30 lens and make it detachable, what is the point?

Maybe they'll come up with something revolutionary, but I don't see it.

The FZ range must have given a huge boost to Leica's fortunes in the digital market, which they have failed to compete in because of pricing factors, but a cost-competitive Leica DSLR lens? I don't see it!
 

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