Nikon manager confirms: New mirrorless system coming by spring 2019

Where I'm seeing a lot of flipping and flapping is in the average mirrorless fanfellas' gums.

I would expect many/most of the median-to-higher DSLR shutter/mirror mechanisms to outlive their users, meanwhile the devout mirrorless user is on to the next auto everything special, with that wonderful EVF dimming out over time.

It's not just the potential for failure of mechanical components and parts, it's also their cost. All those components have a cost associated with them: cost of parts and cost of installing those parts.

I bought an EOS M when it went on fire sale. When I got it, I was astounded by how simple it was. It was as if Canon took a Rebel DSLR, stripped it of EVERYTHING except for the image sensor, the processor board, and the rear LCD, then put it into a magnesium alloy shell. Mirrorless cameras are very simple devices compared to DSLRs. And as a result, they probably cost a lot less to manufacture. Of course, a lot probably depends on production volumes. But eventually, mirrorless production volume will certainly match DSLR production volume. And for certain models, that may already be true.

Ah, you again. Ask the average user today if they are concerned about component prices of 'the future'. They will be more concerned with what they can get TODAY, as in a $1499 D750.

Of course there are (and will be) additional costs for mirror assemblies, but there will be some more than willing to pay the differences. And obviously, for $2-3K cameras the production costs of a mirror assembly start becoming less and less of a factor.

If you don't think Nikon and Canon can compete in the entry-to-mid level mirrorless market, you're dreaming, again.

Nikon D750 is a four year old camera. You should be comparing it to the A7 II which was introduced at about the same time (D750 was introduced Sept 2014, A7 II was introduced November 2014). The A7 II is only $1098 now:

https://www.amazon.com/Sony-Alpha-Mirrorless-Digital-Camera/dp/B00PX8CHO6

Again, the Sony mirrorless is able to undercut the Nikon DSLR by several hundred dollars. That is what we are going to continually see. That is what DSLRs are going to have to go up against. Mirrorless bodies will be able to far outspec DSLRs while selling for the same or less money. For example, look at the Nikon D5 ($6500) and Canon 1DX II ($6000) compared to the Sony A9 ($4500). Those are huge gaps in prices. And Sony could probably still sell the A9 for a lot less, too, considering that they are able to sell the A7III for only $2000! In the long run, it's going to be a losing battle for DSLRs. Out-spec'd and out-priced.

"If you don't think Nikon and Canon can compete in the entry-to-mid level mirrorless market, you're dreaming, again."

I own an EOS M. The EOS M system is Canon's "entry-to-mid-level mirrorless". The system is weak. Sony has the A6000 ($448), A6300 ($798) and A6500 ($1098). They will be releasing the A6700 later this year, and it's supposedly going to be a "baby Sony A9":

https://www.sonyrumors.co/sony-a6700-will-be-a-baby-sony-a9/

That's going to be a killer camera. Canon isn't doing a good job of keeping up with Sony's introductions in the APS-C segment. The latest EOS M5 basically competes with the A6300 introduced years ago (February 2016). And still no real IBIS (M5 only has digital IBIS, and it only works for cropped video). I don't think Canon will ever have real (floating sensor) IBIS.

Nikon isn't even on the playing field yet. So, essentially, it is you who is "dreaming" of a competitive Nikon in the mirrorless market, because that's all it is right now: a dream.

More whiz-bang specs and a whole lotta if and when to wade through there...

DSLR's take pictures, what do Sony have RIGHT NOW for $1499?? Other than the highly 'spec'd' A9999 cameras, (which I've barely even heard of)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lrHzbLnC4o

I'm considering a lightly used D7500 ($500 range), there doesn't appear to be any shortage out there. Will this new and shiny A2018 model blow the 'old' D7500 away, IQ wise? I don't think so.

I don't care if the camera is 15 years old, as long as it takes great pictures. I know this doesn't match the gotta-have new, shiny, gizmo-galore mirrorless mentality but differences are what make the world go round, right?

If you can pull yourself away from writing short stories on DPReview long enough, see if you can borrow a 105/2.5 AIS Nikkor on an FX DSLR. Then, make note of the the size, price and exceptional sharpness. Maybe your 'G-Master' zoom won't look like such a deal after all. Oh, but it won't 'Eye-AF'! You got me there!

A couple of weeks ago I had the chance to re-use after 20 years my 36 years old Nikon FM.

I just added a new battery and everything worked well as the first day . I shot two rolls (color slides and color negatives) , no problems at all !

Let now imagine in 2054 to re-use a Nikon D850, Sony A9, Fujufilm X-T2 .... not to mention how to manage the relevant RAW files ....

@Son Of Waldo - "see if you can borrow a 105/2.5 AIS Nikkor on an FX DSLR."

Nikon F lenses can be used on Sony bodies. You just don't get AF, which is fine for a manual focus lens such as the 105/2.5 AIS Nikkor. Here's the 105/2.5 AIS Nikkor on a Sony mirrorless body.

https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/56047375?image=0

https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/56047375?image=1

This particular lens on Sony bodies was discussed here:
https://www.dpreview.com/forums/thread/3865016

The adapter is only $13.39:
https://www.amazon.com/Fotasy-NEX-VG30-NEX-VG900-NEX-FS100-NEX-FS700/dp/B003X1FSCS/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1525702437&sr=8-3&keywords=nikon+f+to+sony+e+mount+adapter

The advantage of using it on a Sony body is that you get focus magnification and focus peaking, which makes manual focusing very easy. Better than on most DSLRs. Plus, you get image stabilization if you are using a Sony body with IBIS. So imagine a 105/2.5 AIS with image stabilization and focus peaking/magnification!

Why? To make the whole system much heavier? The "weight balance" argument is not an excuse since you never just hold the camera, and always have to hold the telephoto lens too.

@Belgarchi - "What I mean is that tele lenses for ML cameras are heavier, because they must be longer."

Your argument is weak.

Canon 70-200/2.8L IS II: 199mm long, 1490g
Sony 70-200/2.8 GM OSS: 200mm long, 1480g
https://camerasize.com/compact/#716.7,777.514,ha,t

Canon 100-400/4.5-5.6L II IS: 193mm long, 1590g
Sony 100-400/4.5-5.6 GM OSS: 204mm long, 1395g
https://camerasize.com/compact/#716.447,777.660,ha,t

In the case of the 70-200, the lenses are nearly identical in size and weight. In the case of the 100-440, the Sony lens is longer, but the lens weight is 195g lighter. Anything longer than these lenses will probably be used with a monopod, so lens weight and size are less significant. Your premise does not hold water. It's a weak argument at best.

So Rubber you felt that it was you I was refering to, I wonder Why?
And don’t say anything about trolling
You’re at it constantly albeit with poor effort
Its hard to have no talent at all but that won’t stop you
And talk about lame to add a like to your own post 😂😂

@Yxa
"So Rubber you felt that it was you I was refering to, I wonder Why?"

I didn't think you were referring to me, I replied because you were moaning about Sony trolling and you troll Sony threads all the time. I wanted to point out you were a hypocrite.

"And don’t say anything about trolling You’re at it constantly albeit with poor effort"

Except I'm not. I've made 7 posts in this thread totalling 605 words. None of them trolled anything or anyone. Have a look https://www.dpreview.com/members/3426780093/comments
Why not reply to them and offer your views on the Nikon's potential mirrorless problems or sensor issues instead of moaning about users of another brand?

"Its hard to have no talent at all but that won’t stop you"

No talent for what? Trolling? I admit it. I have no talent for trolling.

"And talk about lame to add a like to your own post 😂😂"

I didn't like my own post. Ask a mod. Or tell me when and I'll like it.

You fulfilled both categories, ”Sony fanboy” and camera developer ”expert”
in your postings here
You backseat take on engineering is amusing to say the least
Would be interesting to know what you do for a living, but probably not...

Don’t forget the RGB sensor for tracking , which Nikon does best

I think that since the Nikon RGB sensor do need the main mirror to read the image and process it, it can´t be implemented in a mirrorless camera. Besides that the main AF detector is bellow the mirror, with the same problem.
And trying to use it integrated in the main Bayer sensor matrix structure is very dificult.
Consider also that the PDAF pixels implemented in the actual sensors generate some kind of artifacs in the final image, as some A7 users reported.

But not on Canons dual pixel system

Agreed. The only mirrorless systems that make sense in terms of weight and size are Pentax Q, Nikon 1 and Micro Four Thirds. Pentax Q and Nikon 1 are unfortunately dead systems so that leaves only MFT.

If I would buy into FF at this moment I would choose Canon or Nikon. Much cheaper and more lenses to choose from and (almost) no weight (or size) penalty.

The mirrror flange distance makes difficult the possibility of a small and lighter system. The most of the new FF lenses for the EF SONY mount from Sigma, Zeiss or SONY have larger size than Nikon or Canon equivalents. Compare in this link:
https://camerasize.com/compact/#624.515,596.286,377.56,ha,t

Jose Ernesto, the forecasts made on the sansmirror website do not take into account two factors :

-The current Canon EOS mount is 54mm in diameter versus only 43mm in the Nikon F, and 46.1mm in the Sony EF. SONY has already had problems to implement its IBIS system in FF and some manufacturers of lenses have put problems to design angular lenses in a mount so small, more suitable for APS. Nikon should therefore change his F mount to a larger one, but Canon does not have that problem.

-The AF lenses of Canon always had integrated the AF motors and the iris control, so the adaptation to a new system without mirror is very simple.
Nikon, unlike them, only in its latest versions AF-S and C have integrated these mechanisms in the lenses. All of us that we have accumulated many AF-D lenses we couldn´t use them, unless they designed an adapter like the LE-A4 SLT from Sony, for which they already have a patent.

Weight and size are more malleable and flexible with mirrorless. If you put a BIG lens on a mirrorless body, it becomes big. But if you put a SMALL lens on a mirrorless body, it becomes small. You can have a lot more sizing flexibility with mirrorless cameras. That's why I find mirrorless bodies easier to live with across a wide variety of situations. For street shooting, something like an A7II (650g) with a Rokinon/Samyang 35/2.8 (108g) is ultra compact and lightweight (758g). The combo is actually smaller and lighter than a 6DII body alone (765g)!

https://camerasize.com/compact/#777.667,716,ha,t

But then you can add a battery grip, with an f/2.8 zoom, and you have a big camera to shoot a wedding with.

https://1.img-dpreview.com/files/p/TS560x560~forums/55113348/36e6e64b3c0241e6acdb0e3807a151a2

i'll add the batt grip for the A7/9. hard to balance tele lens. i could easily balance my D500 or 5D4 with Zoom lens but tried the Sony and it's ridiculous.
So add the Batt Grip for the Sony for Tele Zooms lens or even the standard Zoom like 24-70 F2.8 G, then make the comparison.

@BIOGONS
"The mirrror flange distance makes difficult the possibility of a small and lighter system. The most of the new FF lenses for the EF SONY mount from Sigma, Zeiss or SONY have larger size than Nikon or Canon equivalents. Compare in this link:
https://camerasize.com/compact/#624.515,596.286,377.56,ha,t"

LOL, I notice that you didn't actually compare the Sony with the Nikon lens, which is almost two centimetres longer!

Here's the link you should have posted: Sony, Canon and Nikon 24-70s compared. The Nikon is the longest because it has the smallest mount and the longest registration distance. The diameter of the mount is the most important factor in lens length, not 'flange distance'.

https://camerasize.com/compact/#624.515,596.286,761,718.479,ha,t

A larger sensor is always desirable for IQ, DOF is only part of the equation.

Cost is no longer a significant barrier, and mirrorless and/or modern technology has brought the size and weight of FF cameras down significantly.

So it's no longer about why anyone would want to use FF, but why would anyone *not* use FF? Outside of travel/casual/entry-level there isn't much of a case anymore except long reach/action/sports and even that's iffy these days with the D850 and A9 on the scene.

Shallow DOF is not always desirable. Being forced (low light) to open a lens fully and lose sharpness where you wanted it is a bad thing (tm).

@Richard Murdey, cost, size and weight are a significant if you include lenses in the equation.

@"justmeMN according to Thom Hogan, Canon is #2 in worldwide mirrorless market ":

No serious photographer who does not have Canon-DSLR chooses Canon-M.

The reason is: All Eos-M-lenses except the super-wide 22mm are F3.5 upward.
The Eos-M is a secondary "toy" camera for Canonists with DSLRs.
Because there are so much Canon-Dslrs sold, much "secondary" Canon-Mirrorlesses are sold, but the serious camera is then still the DSLR.

Using DSLR lenses on mirrorless is possible but not optimal, because DSLR lenses are made for DSLRs with mirrors and DSLR-AF.

If canon will get serious with mirrorless, then canon will enter the market fullframe. I think I heard rumors about that. The Eos-Mirrorless-mount allows fullframe sensors.
https://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/canon-nikon-full-frame-mirrorless-camera-predictions-by-tony-northrup/

There's also the cost factor too. I think some people are looking at their DSLRs and thinking that it's not broke yet, so I'll just keep shooting with it. Yes the yare heavier but at what cost would I get extra features like eye AF, which does make things easier. Obviously there are some it appears where money is no object, but for the rest of us, I think that's one of the reasons not everybody has jumped ship from Canon or Nikon over to Sony.

For me, I can deal with the weight and lack of eye AF among other newer features found in the newest bodies out there, but I don't like the idea of having to replace $5,000+ worth of lenses (of which I might be able to get $2,000-$3000 in re-sale value). I don't care to take that sort of hit (that's also why I'm hoping that they do come out with a Z-mount to F-mount adapter when Nikon's ML bodies do arrive--I can at least hold onto my glass, and maybe even make the D750 a backup body at that point).

Because Thom has been an expert on Nikon for a great many years and has some excellent contacts there. Which puts him ahead of most people.

And certainly a head of Rubber

why should i use a chunky adaptor on my small mirrorless if i could just get an FF body?

No way, I paid for them dearly! :) I hope Nikon is smart and find a way to use them in a decent way....

As much as people discuss all this here you can bet on the fact that Nikon will at least provide adapters for the F-mount lenses. Whether they will support all the features or provide a set of different adapters at different prices -- to either adapt just the newest lenses or even the oldest stuff fitting to F-mount -- remains to be seen. However I doubt they will make a complete cut and leave the field for proper adapters to 3rd parties alone ...

The only question is: How well will it work?

@caterpillar - "if we look at the speed at which Sony built up about 25 lenses in 6 years,"

Sony first announced their Sony A7 in October 2013. That's only 4 1/2 years ago.

@T3 - oh, I got my dates off!

That's even amazing to come out with 25 or more lenses in a shorter time!

It would make sense for Nikon to design their MILC camera to be compatible with their existing FF lenses. Otherwise, it will be difficult for them to retake the part of the market that Sony is quickly taking over. I don't think they have the luxury of time to only release 3-4 lenses a year because I believe that we will see pro-capable smartphone like dedicated cameras by then.

@thenoilif

On the surface, that sounds fine. But this is why their FX is so messed up! In their bid to maintain backward compatibility they have gotten themselves into this mess.

What they need to do is draw a hard line and for example say, any lens below so-and-so year is no longer supported with an adapter. Expect no support or fixes for them. You can mount them, but you are on your own. They may lack features like face detection or spot metering, etc. - tough!

Nikon must do this and clean the slate. It must not cave in and try to be ALL. The past designs are a big truck moving in the opposite direction that will drag the Z-mount. Best that the new mount prepare for the future.

Actually, Nikon can save itself a lot of problems, if they adopt the e-mount. I very much doubt if Nikon's pride will allow this though. We also don't know if Sony will be amenable with this. But even this option must be studied. Striking it on your own is one long arduous pain for a firm!

@thenoilif

Oh, they will adapt their lenses. It's just going to be a mixed bag in as to what features are not supported by the camera. They have to adapt. Even if they come out with 4-5 lens by next year, the still have a long way to go. And many, will not necessarily want to part with their hard earned DSLR lenses. There will be resistance. So, let them adapt but with the condition that you won't get all features in the camera.

In the long term, it would be profitable to have people get out of the DX and FX lens world. That means, they have to buy a new set or build it up all over again. But that is assuming all goes your way. The reality is, you have competitors already dozens of lenses ahead of you. Some will not wait for you to build them their favorite 20mm f2.0 or 35mm f1.2, much less a TS or 200-500 lens. That will take a bit far off the line.

This is what happens when you don't innovate.

It is very hard for me to believe that Nikon and Canon had ignored the MILC, but rather considered when to make the switch. This means that they should have started developing lenses some time ago to prepare for good portfolio in launch.

@cbphoto123b - "Canon’s larger mount will most likely also be an advantage over Sony’s."

If you're talking about Canon's mirrorless mount (EF-M), it's virtually identical to Sony's mirrorless mount. Canon EF-M mount: 18mm lens register, 47mm throat diameter. Sony E mount: 18mm lens register, 46.1mm throat diameter. We already know that E mount can handle f/1.2 lenses with no problem, even with IBIS. There are even f/1.0 E mount lenses. And, yes, Canon's 50/1.0L works fine on Sony E mount bodies too. There's no advantage to having the mount any larger. The reality is that the "my lens mount is bigger than your lens mount" argument is a rather childish argument. Nikon F mount has a throat diameter of only 44mm (compared to Canon EF's 54mm diameter) and it really hasn't hurt Nikon. And that's a pretty big difference in throat diameter size! There's virtually no difference in throat size between EF-M and E mounts.

@cbphoto123 - "I would assume that Canons full frame mirrorless would have the larger EF mount.. thats why I wrote in my original post EF and not EF-m."

It won't. That would be a stupid move. It would segregate Canon FF MILC users from Canon APS-C MILC users. There is complete cross-compatibility between Sony FF and APS-C mirrorless. I can take any Sony FF mirrorless lens and put it on any Sony APS-C mirrorless body. Likewise, I can take any Sony APS-C mirrorless lens and put it on any Sony FF mirrorless body (Sony FF MILC bodies have a "crop" mode, just like Nikon FF DSLRs do). In fact, some Sony users use APS-C lenses on FF bodies without the crop mode.

http://briansmith.com/sony-a7r-10-18-e-mount-lens/

As for your list of "faults", that's just people grasping at straws looking for stuff to complain about-- like you are doing :) Besides, Canon's mirrorless mount is EF-M (M for mirrorless). And it has a "small diameter." If it were such an issue, why would Canon have chosen it?

@cbphoto123 - If the system needs adapters, then why not just buy a Sony? LOL. Canon would be shooting their mirrorless system in the foot if they used two different mounts for FF and APS-C. I know you are PRAYING that Canon uses their EF mount for there FF mirrorless system, but that's not going to happen. Historically, Canon has had no issues with producing a new mount to enter a new era of photography. They did that when they went from the FD to the EF mount. New mount, new lenses. And now that's what they are doing with EF-M mount. New mount, new lenses. And yes, you can still adapt your old EF lenses to their mirrorless bodies that now use the short-flange EF-M mount. But Canon's next generation of cameras, FF/APS-C mirrorless, will all use the EF-M mount and have a new generation of lenses. Every major camera brands have gone with a new short-flange mirrorless mount for all their mirrorless bodies: Sony, Nikon, Olympus, Leica, Hassy, and yes, Canon too. You're in denial.

@cbphoto123 - "Crazy when you try to think with an open mind what one can find..no?"

Actually, it's you who lacks the "open mind." In the future, mirrorless cameras will dominate and ultimately replace DSLRs as the major form of interchangeable lens cameras. DSLRs will still be around, but they will eventually become the minority. There will be a whole new generation of photographers who will NEVER own or use a DSLR. They'll go straight to mirrorless. They'll only know mirrorless. They'll only have native mirrorless lenses. And adapting old DSLR lenses will be more of a novelty or side-benefit. The majority of the ILC world will be mirrorless, and so will the next generation of photographers. That's where we are headed. But you are too close-minded to see that.

mirrorless is the future , thats the reality , its being driven by the makers more than the buyers, with the sort of exception of canikon , but we teter on the brink of a completely mirrorless future , that goes for all sensor sizes from "mf" to FF
on down ... the question is will dslr remain a significant niche catagory in 5 years ....ten years and beyond , when a certain threshold is reached , makers will abandon the market as they have in compact point and shoot , dedicated gps units , and portable audio visual players ..... electronics that are exiting the marketplace ... i used to think film cameras wiuld always hang on for 35mm film ... but as serious non hipster products they have not.... today its a handful of devices noted for their quirkyness rather than quality

@cbphoto123 - " Canon full fame mirrorless with probably 3 base lenses for it's mount and camera would most likely then come with the adapter for EF lenses."

Yep, it will NOT have an EF mount. And it MAY start with 3 lenses (very weak compared to the dozens of lenses for E-mount not only from Sony but also third parties such as Sigma, Tamron, Tokina, Rokinon/Samyang, etc.). And you can use an adapter to use EF lenses...just like you can use adapters to use EF lenses on Sony mirrorless bodies! And will Canon mirrorless have IBIS? I'm guessing no. The only form of IBIS Canon has is digital IBIS that only works for cropped video. All of these things put Canon at a considerable disadvantage to Sony.

"Guess you have some crazy love affair with mirrorless cameras..."

Nope, it's not "some crazy love affair." It's just sober reality. Mirrorless cameras can already do so much more than DSLRs, with fewer parts, greater size flexibility, and ultimately lower cost.

Canon's mirrorless mount is EF-M (M for Mirrorless). It's a different mount from EF. Nikon will also be introducing a new mirrorless mount, supposedly called the Z-mount:

https://petapixel.com/2018/01/16/nikons-full-frame-mirrorless-new-z-mount-report/

Because the distance from the mounting flange to the focal plane for the new Z mount is much less than the Nikon F mount, Nikon will easily be able to produce an adapter that can provide full native capability (at least as well as an existing lense can function on a D850) of existing lenses to the new mirrorless body. New lenses could also be made for the Z mount (especially in short focal lengths where there would be a size advantage) or to take advantage of perhaps some new feature in the mirrorless body which is not in the DSLR bodies.

The downside of Nikon's F-mount adapter is that it'll be big, much like Sony's A-mount adapter. Like Sony's A-mount adapter, Nikon's adapter will use a fixed pellicle mirror that reflects some of the light towards a dedicated PDAF sensor. This is according to Nikon's patent filing:

http://thenewcamera.com/exclusive-nikon-patent-af-adapter-to-use-dslr-lenses-in-mirrorless/

https://3.img-dpreview.com/files/p/TS560x560~forums/59967148/186a9762fc1647f297ac1ab3c80b3b00

It's also big because, like Sony's SLR system which they inherited from Minolta, Nikon's lenses have mechanical aperture stop-down. Canon EF lenses are a lot easier to make an adapter for because Canon's lens system is entirely electronic.

Here's what Sony's latest A-mount adapter looks like:
https://www.sony.com/is/image/gwtprod/f18c9bf6d15d2fad18d8a9417e1bb058?fmt=jpeg&wid=580

Nikon's adapter will probably look quite similar since both Sony/Minolta and Nikon's lens systems are similarly mechanical in nature.

Nikon would be crazy to use a mirror in their adapter. That patent was filed in 2013. They probably will use on sensor PDAF like Sony. Nikon's newer lenses don't use mechanical aperture so they will probably either make two adapters (one for adapting mechanical apertures) or just abandon adapting the oldest lenses to the mirrorless cameras. You can't be backward compatible all the way back to the big bang.

Anyway the adapter is to keep their existing customers glass useful and the new lenses will take advantage of any new features. I don't see any big cost or size advantage to the larger focal length lenses for mirrorless. You still need are certain amount of diameter and distance in order to get the quality that you design for, with or without a mirror.

I'm waiting util the holidays to decide what I'm going to do. One, if Sony comes out with a rebate/trade in/up offer or some kind of sale, it's possible I'll switch then. And two, If Nikon or Canon don't release anything worth considering Sony it is. Despite the issues being brought up.

@Zak
What a neat laundry list of Nikon should do to "blow past Sony".
Judging from their Nikon 1 experiment, dream on!

@hammarbytp
You may not know that EVF experience was until really recently more underwhelming ?

I know many are so proud to bark they love EVF and all, but even A7R3 or A9 are not so amazing they try to convince people it is ?
Did these people get an eye into serious EVF seen in cinecam ?

@Zakzoezie Honestly, who cares if Nikon and Canon have more lenses out there. What matters is : what lenses can I use on Sony, right now, to get the job done. The Sony world is full of ex-Canon people using comm-lite or MC-11 adapters to use their Canon glass on Sony. It's not perfect, but it's getting better and many claim to do quite well running "adapted". Others have traded in their whole pile of Nikon or Canon gear to go full-speed into Sony. In the native Sony glass world, many Sony, Sigma and Zeiss e-mount lenses are better than current Canikon equivalents and fill what most photographers could possibly need (except a 400mm, and that's coming). I think the Sony world has done well because people wanted mirrorless, great glass, and didn't want to wait... and they will continue doing well as Nikon delays and delays.

What I find interesting is the idea of F-mount used lens prices in a Z-mount future. I think f-mount prices will drop as Nikon mirrorless takes off. We'll see.

@Zakzoezie...Not sure you have any development experience, but the world does not work like that.

Nikon's DSLRs have been an evolution. Mirrorless involves generating new technologies from scratch. Yes, they can benefit from some of their experience, but mirrorless requires new hardware, new algorithms and new ways of thinking.

I believe the 1st Nikon mirrorless camera will be competent, conservative and will not blow Sony out of the park. It will rely on the Nikon name to tempt some DSLR users to the 'dark' side . I don't think we will see anything close to the A7RIII till at least iteration 2 or 3. It will mainly be there to test the waters and learn about the needs and technologies required

@Zakzoezie - "Strategy is so easy, knowing the experience & capabilities of both Canon&Nikon"

Right, because Nikon's strategy with their Nikon 1 system was perfect! LOL. Now it's practically a dead system. As for Canon, Canon introduced their EOS M mirrorless system more than a year BEFORE Sony introduced their FF mirrorless system (the first Canon EOS M was introduced in June 2012, the first Sony A7 was introduced in October 2013). The EOS M system is still pretty weak and anemic, with very little native lens support.

By the way, Nikon's 1 system was ridiculously expensive for a system that only had a 1" sensor. I can only imagine how expensive a Nikon FF mirrorless system is going to cost!

@Zakzoezie- "And indeed as of Canon, you must face the facts that they sell more APSC mirrorless cameras than Sony APSC cameras"

Based on what? Only in the Japanese market where Canon barely squeaks past Sony (21.3% vs 20.2%):
https://3.img-dpreview.com/files/p/E~TS590x0~articles/0966656912/camera

I wouldn't put too much weight in that because those numbers also show that Olympus kills both Canon and Sony with 27.7%. Yet no one would argue that Olympus is king of mirrorless! Plus, the Japanese market is heavily skewed towards low-cost, discounted cameras. That's why Nikon 1 used to be one of the top mirrorless systems in Japan!

"discounting strongly influences the Japanese retail camera scene":
http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/january-2012/final-bcn-japan-tallies.html

"The majority of the products generating the volume in mirrorless in Japan are the lower end, lower cost, or discounted models":
http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/bcns-final-japanese-market.html

@hammarbytp "so anything that endangers that cash cow will be a difficult sell" Exactly ! That is the only reason why Canikon are picking their right timing to introduce FF mirrorless, pure 100% based on marketing only ! But apparently that is hard to understand for many people, if I may quote above comment from somebody who got 13 likes (so many people do not seem to have a clue): "can't for the life of me think why they are taking so long...". Now for me personally, apart from marketing&business aspects of camera companies, there are still several technical reasons why I would not consider to switch to a Nikon mirrorless today if it would be available and would 100% match the capabilities of the A7III. That's the reason of my initial comment. Only looking at EVF quality in a local shop already stops me from switching ! I'm convinced that the cost of high quality EVFs still needs to drop first, before it sits in a 2K USD FF mirrorless, and that might still take years & years ...

I care very much. I've got a very severe old back injury (multiple broken vertebrae) and am getting on in age (55).

When I was younger, the weight of the gear didn't bother me at all. A heavy DSLR with multiple lenses wasn't an issue. Now, however it's a big issue and I look forward to the significantly reduced weight, especially for casual street photography or travel.

@Gever - I still prefer the rendering of a fast 50mm lens on FF over a fast 35mm lens on an APS-C camera. So I totally understand why someone would prefer FF for street and travel. Plus, a setup like a Sony A7 with a Samyang 35/2.8 AF is very compact and light. Great for street shooting.

https://i2.wp.com/ryadguelmaoui.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/RGP_1573.jpg?resize=909%2C607

https://ksassets.timeincuk.net/wp/uploads/sites/54/2017/08/SamyangAF35mmF28FEinhand1.jpg

raztec, I feel your pain. Just wait until you are my age!!! I bought a Lowepro Flipside 400 awii recently to, what I thought was a good idea, to place all my photo equipment in the backpack. D7200, Sigma 17-50, Sigma 24-105, Tokina 11-20 (all 3 are my landscape lenses) AND the Tamron 100-400, plus extra batteries, filters, strap, etc., etc. I just simply placed all on top and lifted it up. Uh....no way was I going to take ALL my gear with me. That started me thinking about one camera, Sony A7iii and one lens, Sony 24-105 f4. That would be just to do landscapes, etc. Wildlife? I'll just look for now.

'the necessity for "humor alert" or "irony ahead" as part of tongue in cheek posts is here most apparent

but funny .... the smartphone reference is the best punchline so far

@Yves P
You've got to remember that both Nikon and Canon were already in the mirrorless market space. Canon has been in it almost as long as Sony.

It's not even the case that either made poor cameras (by their own standards) - simply that mirrorless doesn't really play to their strengths.

The transition has been easier for Canon, which has a video division and makes its own sensors but the FF milc in the form of the A7rIII/A7III/A9 is quite alien to both companies. It is essentially a video camera and mostly an electronic product.

The expertise that both Canon and Nikon built up in mechanical engineering is not readily transferable. There is no pentaprism or mirror to calibrate, no discrete PDAF module to align.

The biggest asset either company can bring to any mirrorless product of their own is probably their name, which puts a large element of their future success in the hands of their marketing teams.

neither took that market seriously until very recently when people started to migrate.

@YvesP
The point I was making in my post was precisely the opposite. Both did take the market seriously - that's why they entered it years ago. Canon has made a lot of money from mirrorless. Nikon's mirrorless was less successful, but that seems to have had much to do with pricing.

It's common to portray Canon and Nikon as being asleep at the wheel, but that's not actually the case. They have always been aware of Sony and likely fully aware of where they were going with their mirrorless technology but there has never been much they can do about it as their strengths as I say lie in other areas.

I'll give you an example - DPR considers the D5 to have the best tracking of any camera. That is a feature that Nikon will have to give up if they move to mirrorless, because mirrorless cameras have no secondary sensor to direct light onto a discrete focussing module. The only way round it would be an SLT-type camera, which Nikon would not introduce even if patents permitted.

Yes, the latest rumors are saying Photokina 2018. They also state that now Nikon is rushing it's production of a full frame mirrorless to be released this year instead of 2019. Yes, Nikon and Canon ARE years behind in mirrorless technology. How many mirrorless options do they have (enter chirping crickets)? Again, I firmly believe Nikon (and to a lesser extent Canon) were shocked by the release of the A7iii at such a price/performance point. Like I've said, Nikon needs to have a full frame mirrorless camera equal to or exceeding that of the A7iii to make it's mark on the mirrorless market. And NOT over priced like most of it's equipment is.

@Just someone
"Why do fanboys say Canon/Nikon are years behind?"

Er.. because they are. Canon has only just started using on-chip ADCs on it's FF cameras. They still don't make any BSI or stacked sensors. Obviously they will be working on this but that's the state of play at the moment so they are behind, it's just a fact - nothing to do with 'fanboys'.

Nikon don't manufacture their own sensors. They may well have a team working on sensor designs but they have no actual material sensor R&D facilities, so again it is simply a statement of fact to say they are years behind.

"Isn;t Sony after the dSLR market? How many years (or should I say decades) are they behind??"

Sony is not after the DSLR market - they don't make any DSLRs. They are after DSLR users - as is everyone else. You can argue who currently offers the best option for them, be it Sony, Fuji, Olympus or Panasonic.

RubberDials
Sony do actually have a range of DSLR's. Its a matter of detail that the mirror doesn't flip and that the viewfinder is electronic. What matters is that they are digital single lens reflex cameras. They have had autofocus in live view since 2010 and their history goes back to Minolta days.
They have always been steady sellers. Not best sellers but a quality niche something like comparing a Porsche with a Ford. The Ford obviously defines the average while Porsche goes for performance, quality and innovation, selling to a smaller but select group of enthusiasts.

Said with a degree of humour and a heap of sarcasm.

@ Aberaeron

haha. for a second I thought you were serious!

Sorry Miki, english is not my first language. I do my best. Im happy for you to correct me.

Neither is it mine. Typing, not language. And take a rest.

Congratulations on the dumbest comment I have seen here.

@ThatCamFan
I presume you are clueless with limited knowledge. Not going to be rude and rather explain it to you. If you look at the specs of A7iii, they are close to what both Canon / Nikon (Canikon) like to sell at $3000. The issues here is $2000 Sony price tag and next year or sooner it will be $1800-1900.

Now Nikon and Canon are bringing to market their own FF mirrorless cameras. How do you think they will match it to beat $1800-1900 price tag. They don't. They can only make more expensive camera with more MP to justify higher cost. That was my point. What do you think?

@milkod2001

HAHA!! Another one that knows nothing.

Did you forget the A7RIII which sells for over $3K? That is one price point. The other is the A7III for $2K. Nikon can compete on price but more importantly focusing capability where they are industry leading. Also the ergonomics and nuild are much better on the Nikon than the Sony. Seems like there is plenty of room for competition in this market.

@just someone

I'm just saying what i think will happen. You are right, i don't know what exactly will happen. If i knew and told you i'd had to kill you :))).

@Laslo Varadi

I did not forget about A7r3 at $3k, just did not bother to mention. Cameras at this price point don't sell in high volumes , don't change anything.

By industry leading you mean less confusing menus & 2$ rubber sealing? :)

Im happy for competition it is good for all us , just don't see any miracles happening, certainly not at $2000 price point.

milkod2001, ignore the idiot Americans. It's part of what's going on in our country now. They believe what they want to believe and knock and degrade those with a opinion different than what is true.

And you are correct, Nikon and Canon could not possibly offer anything close to what Sony is offering at a certain price point. They could prove me wrong though. We will find out in several months.

Michiel953, your comment was unnecessary about his typing skills. And has nothing to do with his comment.

@ThatCamFan

'I would love to know how you "know" what Canon and Nikon will charge for they're mirrorless full frames.'

I don't know that but lets try to figure it out together. Maybe my logic is completely flawed and i'm wrong. Let me know what you think.

The only current Canikon FF mirroless upcoming competition? Sony.

Price of Sony FF mirrorless camera: $2000

That is your starting point. We don't know any exact specs or price of Canikon upcoming mirrorless but we know how much is competition charging for it $2000.

Will Canikon introduce anything below $2000. NO. That's for sure.

Will Canikon be able to match specs of Sony $2000 camera. Lets presume some miracle will happen and they will. But they will have to fight against Sony which at time of Canikon announcement will be around $1800-1900. This is not what Canikon likes, fight for the scraps especially not with new products. Solution: give camera more MP and sell it for more $2500-3500 but that also means less sales.

@AZheaven
Don't know about Camfan but Miki is not American by his profile. Just brand insecure stoned lawyer from Netherland. :) Nothing to worry about. We are just yapping about cameras anyway. ( No offence Miki ).

Sony's ergonomics don't suck, perhaps it's your hands that do? I could also say Nikons are really ugly, even Canons look better. And the EVF argument's been put to rest, it's solely a matter of preference.

Watch your typing there, Michiel953. I assume you meant you rather than Yu.

@Laslo Varadi
"Nikon can compete on price but more importantly focusing capability where they are industry leading"
They may be industry leading with a dedicated phase detection sensor which by definition goes away ) when you move to mirrorless. At this point it is integrated into the image sensor, which is a completely different proposition, and not easy to do. Without their own sensor development (which I believe they have recently started to do, because they have to), Nikon actually has no play here at all... Based on the A9 etc, Sony are getting pretty good at this - I don't know if they're the best, but they're certainly well ahead of Nikon/Canon in this regard.

It’s a Trump spoof. But you didn’t notice that.

Roland apparently you have never gone out of your cave nor read a single news story judging by not realizing the trump joke.

Michiel and CamFan, and you missed the tone in my post. Not easy to communicate in writing in forums. The finer details are often missed.

BTW - of course I spotted the Trump tone. But - maybe David is a Trump clone.