T3

Lives in United States United States
Joined on Jul 1, 2003

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In reply to:

J A C S: A mirrorless fan kicking a dSLR shooter. Happens everyday here.

What kind of buffoon makes this into a mirrorless vs DSLR issue? Geez, how childish and insecure are you?

Link | Posted on Dec 12, 2017 at 01:58 UTC
In reply to:

Terry Breedlove: She is about to make a lot of money. Way more than what she was being paid to shoot.

Have you considered the long-term consequences of a neck injury? No, you probably haven't. Whiplash injuries can haunt you and cause pain for many years.

Link | Posted on Dec 12, 2017 at 01:53 UTC
In reply to:

audiobomber: The headline could have read, "CIPA figures show disappointing October sales, but DSLR's still dominate the market." I guess that wouldn't be news and wouldn't reflect DPR's Mirrorless bias.

"I disagree. Pentax currently has four mounts: Q, APS-C, FF and MF."

That's the problem. Pentax is clinging to the past. Look at Canon. What did they do in 1987? They dumped their old FD mount and bet on the future with their Electro-Focus (EF) mount. They were forward-thinking, even as they were criticized for doing it. They chose not to cling to the past. And it paid off for them. The same goes for Sony today. They switched their priority from DSLRs to something entirely new: the E-mount system. And like Canon, it is paying off for Sony. Sony is now a significant player in ILCs. And they are just getting started, too. The Sony FF mirrorless system is only 4 years old!

As for Pentax, I think they'll eventually pay the price for not getting into mirrorless. Even MF mirrorless. Fuji's GFX mirrorless was a smart move. Better technology, smaller size. GFX as a DSLR would have been big a mistake. The future of MF is mirrorless too.

Link | Posted on Dec 10, 2017 at 18:47 UTC
In reply to:

audiobomber: The headline could have read, "CIPA figures show disappointing October sales, but DSLR's still dominate the market." I guess that wouldn't be news and wouldn't reflect DPR's Mirrorless bias.

@audiobomber - You're clinging to the past. DSLRs will eventually become "the past" technology. Yes, 1/3 of the market is mirrorless right now. But that's a huge rise from what it was in the past. And it continues to rise. The older generation, like yourself, may still be in love with the DSLR. But that's not the case with the younger generation. For them, looking through an OVF with a few focus points in the center, no face detection box around their subjects' faces, no WYSIWYG exposure feedback seems downright primitive compared to an EVF. The younger generation will decide which ILC type will prevail in the future. And in the end, it's always the newer, digital, less mechanical, more solid state technology that wins out. That's basically what mirrorless is. Newer, with digital viewfinders, less mechanical, more solid state. And cheaper to produce, too.

Link | Posted on Dec 10, 2017 at 18:32 UTC
In reply to:

audiobomber: The headline could have read, "CIPA figures show disappointing October sales, but DSLR's still dominate the market." I guess that wouldn't be news and wouldn't reflect DPR's Mirrorless bias.

"Pentax have had IBIS, pixel shift and medium format for years, in bodies tougher than any MILC. "

I think Pentax made a big mistake by making the Pentax K-1 a FF DSLR, rather than a FF mirrorless body. They could have been an early entry into the FF mirrorless market, but instead they are a late-comer to the FF DSLR market. They could have beat Canon and Nikon to the FF mirrorless market. But instead, they are very late followers to the FF DSLR market. Their IBIS and pixel shift technology is ready-made for mirrorless. They made a late jump into a declining market, rather than making an early jump into a rising market. It's a missed opportunity for them.

Link | Posted on Dec 9, 2017 at 22:51 UTC
In reply to:

audiobomber: The headline could have read, "CIPA figures show disappointing October sales, but DSLR's still dominate the market." I guess that wouldn't be news and wouldn't reflect DPR's Mirrorless bias.

@audiobomber - "Some of the 'interesting developments' in Mirrorless are merely attempts to catch up with DSLR technology."

How long has SLR technology been around? Decades. Compare that to how long mirrorless ILC's have been around. In a relatively short amount of time, new mirrorless cameras are catching up to DSLRs. And in many ways, they are now surpassing. A $500 Sony A6000 has 179 AF points covering almost the entire image frame, with face/eye AF, gives you real time exposure preview, focus magnification and focus peaking, and can do 11fps. How much would you have to spend to get all that in a DSLR? It's an amazing level of performance and specs for very little money. And we're just getting started with mirrorless technology. Where will mirrorless technology be 5 years from now? By then, the stacked BSI sensor with no rolling shutter and totally silent high speed shooting we are seeing in the A9 will be in lower models. DSLRs, on the other hand, have matured and are plateauing.

Link | Posted on Dec 9, 2017 at 22:45 UTC
In reply to:

Life recorder: "Most of the mirrorless shipments are going to the Asia region, though, which still accounts for more than 50 percent of all mirrorless cameras shipped"

And we know last year with only a couple mirrorless ILC bodies, Canon outsold BOTH Sony's aspc AND ff mirrorless offerings in Japan.

Can Canon keep that up with only a couple basic models? And what happens to Sony next year when both Canon and Nikon enter the FF mirrorless market?

We can criticize Canon all we want, but they are still dominating everyone else.

@Life recorder - It's going to hurt Canon and Nikon because their mirrorless sales cannibalize their own DSLR sales. Does Sony have that issue? Not really. Furthermore, Canon/Nikon are moving into a market where they will have much weaker mirrorless systems. Don't assume that every Canon/Nikon user will automatically buy Canon/Nikon mirrorless cameras. That's a false assumption. So with more people migrating to mirrorless, that means a much greater potential for erosion of Canon/Nikon usership. Also, Sony mirrorless already has cross-compatibilty with Canon EF lenses. So a Canon user looking to move to FF mirrorless definitely doesn't have to buy Canon FF mirrorless if they still want to use their EF lenses.

Link | Posted on Dec 7, 2017 at 23:57 UTC
In reply to:

Life recorder: "Most of the mirrorless shipments are going to the Asia region, though, which still accounts for more than 50 percent of all mirrorless cameras shipped"

And we know last year with only a couple mirrorless ILC bodies, Canon outsold BOTH Sony's aspc AND ff mirrorless offerings in Japan.

Can Canon keep that up with only a couple basic models? And what happens to Sony next year when both Canon and Nikon enter the FF mirrorless market?

We can criticize Canon all we want, but they are still dominating everyone else.

Life recorder - "In 2008 Sony held a 13-14% market share for ILCs. In 2017 that jumped to 14%."

You are forgetting a very significant detail. Back in 2008, Sony was competing in the DSLR market, which they basically had little to no chance to succeed in against Canon and Nikon. So they did the smart thing by switching to an entirely new market segment: mirrorless. They are now the major player in FF mirrorless, the defacto technological and system leader in FF mirrorless. The future is definitely mirrorless. So it was smart for them to make a big move into mirrorless. In a few years, I don't think many of us are even going to be talking about DSLRs.

Link | Posted on Dec 7, 2017 at 23:54 UTC
In reply to:

Life recorder: "Most of the mirrorless shipments are going to the Asia region, though, which still accounts for more than 50 percent of all mirrorless cameras shipped"

And we know last year with only a couple mirrorless ILC bodies, Canon outsold BOTH Sony's aspc AND ff mirrorless offerings in Japan.

Can Canon keep that up with only a couple basic models? And what happens to Sony next year when both Canon and Nikon enter the FF mirrorless market?

We can criticize Canon all we want, but they are still dominating everyone else.

"and pointing that when both Nikon and Canon enter the FF mirrorless market it will hurt Sony's sales numbers."

You're forgetting that it will hasten the decline of DSLR sales. And a decline in DSLR sales will hurt Canon/Nikon a lot more than Sony. You're also forgetting that Canon/Nikon will have the same issue that used to plague Sony's system: the lack of FF mirrorless lenses. Sony's system is now really well built out, and is years ahead of Canon/Nikon's FF MILC systems (which are still non-existent). Sony also has the advantage of being able to use Canon EF lenses, which takes away that benefit from Canon. As a Canon DSLR user, I don't feel the need to buy a Canon MILC. I also doubt that Canon/Nikon will be implementing IBIS (except for Canon possibly implementing digital image stabilization).

Contrary to what you think, I think Sony's market share will continue to increase, especially if Canon/Nikon migrate towards MILCs, because that will only hasten the decline of DSLRs.

Link | Posted on Dec 7, 2017 at 23:46 UTC
In reply to:

Life recorder: "Most of the mirrorless shipments are going to the Asia region, though, which still accounts for more than 50 percent of all mirrorless cameras shipped"

And we know last year with only a couple mirrorless ILC bodies, Canon outsold BOTH Sony's aspc AND ff mirrorless offerings in Japan.

Can Canon keep that up with only a couple basic models? And what happens to Sony next year when both Canon and Nikon enter the FF mirrorless market?

We can criticize Canon all we want, but they are still dominating everyone else.

@rrccad - The same disdain you guys are showing for Sony mirrorless is the same disdain people had for Canon EOS back in the late 1980's/early 1990's. I know. I was there. Nikonians were constantly crapping all over Canon EOS. But Canon EOS kept plugging away, steadily gaining traction, steadily advancing their technological edge, and Nikon's practically insurmountable domination steadily eroded away. I see Sony now pursuing the same path against Canon and Nikon. But just as blind Nikonians dismissed Canon EOS, now we have Canonians doing the same with Sony mirrorless.

I'm no "fanboy." I've been a Canon EOS user since 1995. I just see the writing on the wall, and I see a lot of parallels between Sony of today compared to Canon of the early 1990s.

Link | Posted on Dec 7, 2017 at 19:58 UTC
In reply to:

Life recorder: "Most of the mirrorless shipments are going to the Asia region, though, which still accounts for more than 50 percent of all mirrorless cameras shipped"

And we know last year with only a couple mirrorless ILC bodies, Canon outsold BOTH Sony's aspc AND ff mirrorless offerings in Japan.

Can Canon keep that up with only a couple basic models? And what happens to Sony next year when both Canon and Nikon enter the FF mirrorless market?

We can criticize Canon all we want, but they are still dominating everyone else.

@Life recorder - It's funny how people like you worship the Japan numbers as evidence of Canon's tremendous domination. But you ignore the fact that Olympus beat Canon in the Japan MILC market 28.6% vs 18.5%! (In comparison, Canon beat Sony only by 0.6%).

https://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/2016-companies-market-shares-japan/

Should we be extrapolating that trouncing of Olympus over Canon as evidence of Olympus's domination? LOL.

I would also take into account the type of buyers that are buying Canon MILC compared to Sony mirrorless. You can bet that there is a much greater percentage of higher-end and serious users buying into Sony mirrorless -- across the globe.

As for other markets, well, just look at how poorly Canon MILC is doing on Amazon USA:
https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Electronics-Mirrorless-Cameras/zgbs/electronics/3109924011#1

Link | Posted on Dec 7, 2017 at 19:42 UTC
In reply to:

Life recorder: "Most of the mirrorless shipments are going to the Asia region, though, which still accounts for more than 50 percent of all mirrorless cameras shipped"

And we know last year with only a couple mirrorless ILC bodies, Canon outsold BOTH Sony's aspc AND ff mirrorless offerings in Japan.

Can Canon keep that up with only a couple basic models? And what happens to Sony next year when both Canon and Nikon enter the FF mirrorless market?

We can criticize Canon all we want, but they are still dominating everyone else.

"Sony's future isn't rosy either. They have 0% of the much larger DSLR segment and no way to improve that."

That's assuming that the future of the ILC market lies in DSLRs! It won't. DSLRs are a declining market. With every passing year, DSLR popularity declines, and mirrorless popularity increases. This trend is going to continue, and only accelerate with every passing year. You guys are in denial with your continued love affair with DSLRs.

As for Canon/Nikon entering the FF mirrorless market, what that will trigger is an even greater decline in the DSLR segment. That's going to hurt Canon and Nikon FAR more than it'll hurt Sony :) It will bring greater emphasis, attention, and credibility to the mirrorless segment. And at that point, with all eyes on the mirrorless segment, Canon and Nikon will be fielding very under-developed mirrorless systems compared to other mirrorless systems that are far more mature and developed. Complete mirrorless lens systems don't pop up over night.

Link | Posted on Dec 7, 2017 at 16:53 UTC
In reply to:

audiobomber: The headline could have read, "CIPA figures show disappointing October sales, but DSLR's still dominate the market." I guess that wouldn't be news and wouldn't reflect DPR's Mirrorless bias.

@audiobomber - That's just wishful thinking on your part. The world operates on "subtle changes", but those "subtle changes" continue over time and have a cumulative effect. It's like a glacier melting. Glaciers don't disappear overnight. It's like Climate Change. These are all "subtle changes". It's only when we look back years from now that it will seem much quicker and more dramatic. But in the present, it seems so subtle, like a melting glacier or rising Earth temperatures.

No, mirrorless has not "stalled". I think mirrorless is just getting started. If anything, it's DSLRs that have "stalled". Interest in DSLRs seems to become less and less every year. Certainly, DSLR sales are becoming less and less. All the interesting developments are happening in the mirrorless segment, from m4/3 to medium format!

Link | Posted on Dec 6, 2017 at 21:48 UTC
In reply to:

audiobomber: The headline could have read, "CIPA figures show disappointing October sales, but DSLR's still dominate the market." I guess that wouldn't be news and wouldn't reflect DPR's Mirrorless bias.

Dominating the market is a bit at odds with a 22% year-over-year drop, especially compared to a 12% rise of mirrorless. In other words, "dominate" sounds like a powerful position, but in reality DSLR's market share is on a downward trajectory while mirrorless continues on its upward trajectory.

Link | Posted on Dec 6, 2017 at 19:15 UTC
In reply to:

User0127324968: Showing The whole statistics of selling ILC and comparing to other cameras is just to create a "need" in photographer's subconscious.
You're still using a Dslr?!
Yes!
Go get an ILC to be updated! Look, most people are switching to ILC.

@User0127324968 - I enjoy travel photography. I used to travel with Canon APS-C DSLR gear. Now I travel with APS-C mirrorless gear (I use both Sony and Fuji mirrorless). I can tell you that it's waaaay more comfortable to travel and shoot with mirrorless gear. Lighter and more compact size makes a big difference when traveling and carrying gear for hours on end. 500g makes a big difference. Differences in body size also make a big difference. Grip size makes far less of a difference than you realize because if you actually tabulated how much time you are gripping the camera to take a shot, versus having the camera just sitting in your shoulder bag or hanging from your shoulder, it's probably like 15% vs 85%. Personally, I don't see myself ever buying another DSLR in my lifetime. I'm happier to use mirrorless from here on out. And with every passing year, I think more and more people are going to be doing the same. DSLR popularity will continue to erode.

Link | Posted on Dec 6, 2017 at 19:11 UTC
In reply to:

Daft Punk: I think DSLR sales will fall to the stage where they reach a tipping point - when that point is reached, the DSLR market will totally collapse and become a specialised thing for serious amateurs.

This is how it will happen - sales of Canon Rebels and Nikon 3/5XXXD models will carry on falling. BestBuy and the other big retailers will then calculate that the floor real estate would be more profitable selling something else like microwaves or food mixers. So they reduce the floor space of the DSLR's. So sales fall even more. 3 years later, no more DSLR in BestBuy.

This WILL happen. Probably sooner than you realise.

@rrccad - You are unrealistically expecting a sudden "collapse." That's not how it really happens. Things happen gradually. Glaciers don't disappear overnight. What we are seeing is a gradual rise in mirrorless and a gradual decline in DSLRs: 22% year-over-year decline in DSLRs, 12% year-over-year rise in mirrorless. It's foolish and unrealistic to expect a "collapse." Years from now, it may seem like a "collapse", but in reality it will have been a gradual processes over the course of many years. It's like kids growing up: they do it gradually, but it seems like you blink and they are suddenly teenagers!

Link | Posted on Dec 5, 2017 at 22:30 UTC
In reply to:

rrccad: "CIPA figures show disappointing October sales"

it's not sales. it's shipments.

there's simply no way that this october was going to match next october, just as there's no chance that the November and December values match as well. that's simply because the earthquake screwed up shipments for nearly 9 months of last year.

however, the net should be that all things equal out and that the net aggregate for the year is that things settle down and 2016 and 2017 nearly equal the same amounts shipped.

We won't get a good idea on what's really happening to the shipments until next year at this time, just because last year was such a cluster-.., even if 2016 equals 2017.

It's amazing how some people will go to any lengths to ignore the data and deny the changes that are happening. It reminds me of Climate Change denialists.

Link | Posted on Dec 5, 2017 at 20:58 UTC
In reply to:

Sean65: Many of the current crop of DSLR's a so solid a robust that you'd hardly ever be buying them on a regular basis. Even some of the busiest Pro's buying a Nikon D5 would expect a solid five years use out of it.

"I've seen and used liveview a TON on DSLR's.. and I've seen others primarily use liveview on DSLR's in the past and I'm sure i'm not the only one."

Yep, people are increasingly enjoying the benefits of allowing the sensor to see the scene. Unfortunately, with a DSLR you can't do that while using the OVF because you have a pesky mirror in the way. That's why people will increasingly forego the outdated OVF and choose EVF cameras instead.

Link | Posted on Dec 5, 2017 at 20:55 UTC
In reply to:

rrccad: "CIPA figures show disappointing October sales"

it's not sales. it's shipments.

there's simply no way that this october was going to match next october, just as there's no chance that the November and December values match as well. that's simply because the earthquake screwed up shipments for nearly 9 months of last year.

however, the net should be that all things equal out and that the net aggregate for the year is that things settle down and 2016 and 2017 nearly equal the same amounts shipped.

We won't get a good idea on what's really happening to the shipments until next year at this time, just because last year was such a cluster-.., even if 2016 equals 2017.

"it's not sales. it's shipments."

In the modern age, with tight electronic inventory control, shipments correlate very tightly with sales. Gone are the days when stores held warehouses full of excess inventory. Companies now avoid that like the plague because it's financially very risky and it ties up a lot of cash in inventory. These days, companies use a "just in time" inventory model. That's the world we are increasingly living in today.

Link | Posted on Dec 5, 2017 at 19:36 UTC
In reply to:

Daft Punk: I think DSLR sales will fall to the stage where they reach a tipping point - when that point is reached, the DSLR market will totally collapse and become a specialised thing for serious amateurs.

This is how it will happen - sales of Canon Rebels and Nikon 3/5XXXD models will carry on falling. BestBuy and the other big retailers will then calculate that the floor real estate would be more profitable selling something else like microwaves or food mixers. So they reduce the floor space of the DSLR's. So sales fall even more. 3 years later, no more DSLR in BestBuy.

This WILL happen. Probably sooner than you realise.

@rrccad - Plus, I'm finding more and more people (especially more casual ILC shooters) are turned off by the size and girth of DSLRs. I have a female friend who just bought her first ILC and she ended up with a Fuji X-T20 because even with the 16-50 kit lens, she could fit it in her handbag. It takes up a lot less room than a Rebel SL2 with kit lens:

http://camerasize.com/compact/#703.421,715.377,ha,t

She specifically said that she thought "DSLRs are too big." And she was talking about "small" DSLRs like the Rebel! Before the age of mirrorless cameras, my friend would have surely ended up with a DSLR. But in today's era where mirrorless cameras exist, the DSLR market is steadily bleeding away ILC buyers such as my friend, losing them to mirrorless. And it's only going to increase over time.

Link | Posted on Dec 5, 2017 at 19:23 UTC
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