roustabout66

Joined on Jan 19, 2012

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Total: 220, showing: 1 – 20
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aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

Do you believe any of the numbers about shipments?

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 23:56 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv Do you believe the people claiming that using an EVF gives them a headache?

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 23:51 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv I have copied and pasted my original post regarding your claim. I stand by my original statement that mirrorless is less expensive only if they do not have a viewfinder.
"I call BS unless you are only looking at MILC with no EVF. Please prove your baseless claim. An EVF is much more expensive to manufacture than a pentamirror prism and mirror assembly because of economies of scale. That is why the least expensive current interchangeable lens cameras WITH VIEWFINDERS are the cheap Canon Rebels. Often an EVF is MORE expensive to manufacture, not less."

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 23:48 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv Please let me know what the numbers REALLY mean when they say mirrorless was down 15.8% and DSLR was up .1% To this simple math major that seems to say mirrorless sold a whopping 15.8% less than the previous year and DSLR sold more but I am sure you have a spin for it.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 23:45 UTC
In reply to:

Aleks7: sure, we just need mirrorless that would match the DSLR performance, so instead of big words perhaps first deliver such camera and I'll happily follow ;)

@RubberDials you are commenting without reading. Here is EXACTLY what I said:

The last time I looked at the real world Canon had about a 50% share, Nikon had about a 25% share and Sony had about a 14% share. Canon and Nikon are definitely the big boys and all of the other little camera companies COMBINED equal Nikon and are one half of Canon. You like to only look at the mirrorless segment (didn't Canon outsell Sony in mirrorless in Japan) which is a fraction of the entire camera market. If the CIPA numbers presented here in February are true, it seems to me that mirrorless's share of the market dropped.

Did you catch the part where I said you like to only look at the mirrorless segment. Go back and read the original again. I am sure you will see it this time.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 23:28 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv So with your supreme knowledge of what the CIPA numbers mean please let me know what the numbers REALLY mean when they say mirrorless was down 15.8% and DSLR was up .1% To this simple math major that seems to say mirrorless sold a whopping 15.8% less than the previous year and DSLR sold more but I am sure you have a spin for it.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 23:23 UTC
In reply to:

Aleks7: sure, we just need mirrorless that would match the DSLR performance, so instead of big words perhaps first deliver such camera and I'll happily follow ;)

@T3 Apparently you did not read a word of my post so I will try again.
You are correct, Sony COULD lose money on cameras and stay in the market, but their latest CEO seems to not agree with that philosophy. He has been selling of losing assets.

When Sony invests in their own repair facilities I will consider them in it for the long haul.

Have you seen the new Sony Vaio laptop? Me either because Sony sold the name to another company about 4 years ago.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 23:13 UTC
In reply to:

Aleks7: sure, we just need mirrorless that would match the DSLR performance, so instead of big words perhaps first deliver such camera and I'll happily follow ;)

@RubberDials You have to admire the Sony fanboys and their ability to ignore the real world."Canon and Nikon aren't the big boys - they're the little boys. "

The last time I looked at the real world Canon had about a 50% share, Nikon had about a 25% share and Sony had about a 14% share. Canon and Nikon are definitely the big boys and all of the other little camera companies COMBINED equal Nikon and are one half of Canon. You like to only look at the mirrorless segment (didn't Canon outsell Sony in mirrorless in Japan) which is a fraction of the entire camera market. If the CIPA numbers presented here in February are true, it seems to me that mirrorless's share of the market dropped.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 23:04 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv I have copied and pasted my original post regarding your claim. I stand by my original statement that mirrorless is less expensive only if they do not have a viewfinder.

"I call BS unless you are only looking at MILC with no EVF. Please prove your baseless claim. An EVF is much more expensive to manufacture than a pentamirror prism and mirror assembly because of economies of scale. That is why the least expensive current interchangeable lens cameras WITH VIEWFINDERS are the cheap Canon Rebels. Often an EVF is MORE expensive to manufacture, not less."

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 22:37 UTC
In reply to:

Aleks7: sure, we just need mirrorless that would match the DSLR performance, so instead of big words perhaps first deliver such camera and I'll happily follow ;)

@T3 Sony's one trick pony is mirrorless as you just pointed out.

You are correct, Sony COULD lose money on cameras and stay in the market, but their latest CEO seems to not agree with that philosophy.

When Sony invests in their own repair facilities I will consider them in it for the long haul.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 22:28 UTC
In reply to:

JEROME NOLAS: Hardly. The path they (mostly Sony)are walking on is weird, expensive. DSLR will be with us another 100 years...

Since you did not show a quote where I said "since YOU stated that evf is bad for the eye" you can either retract your statement or you are a liar.

Having CONCERNS is different that making a declarative statement that EVF is dangerous. For someone who sometimes likes to point out spelling errors you seem to be playing fast and loose with the truth.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 20:21 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv So there is no difference in profits and volume between cameras with a viewfinder and without a viewfinder.....fascinating argument ;-)
To say mirrorless is more profitable per camera than DSLR when you include viewfinder and no viewfinder cameras on one side of the equation is not an equivalent comparison. My guess is that Apple makes more profit per camera (phone) than Sony with their APSC, cameras but they are hardly the same. The Sony cameras have a viewfinder and interchangeable lenses. They are not really competitors for the same market.

If you are comfortable mixing different classes of cameras to get a number, we are back to the Canon cameras have 50% market share and are profitable while Sony has 14% share and who knows about their profitability. I will save you the trouble of posting Sony Imaging figures since Sony includes Pro Video in that category and does not break the companies out as far as I know.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 20:03 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@BaeckerX1 So true! I screwed up on that one :-) I did say however that I was a math major so do I get a mulligan?

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 19:45 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv Another Ad hominem attack. You clearly realize you are losing the argument. If you do not understand that there is a difference in sales volumn and profits between different classes of cameras (viewfinder vs no viewfinder) I can not help you. I suspect you DO know the difference but simply want to muddy the waters at this point.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 19:17 UTC
In reply to:

JEROME NOLAS: Hardly. The path they (mostly Sony)are walking on is weird, expensive. DSLR will be with us another 100 years...

@osv Where did I say EVF was bad for your eye? Please show a quote where I said that, retract your statement, or be branded a liar.

I said I had concerns about the use of an EVF. Having CONCERNS is different that making a declarative statement that EVF is dangerous...but you know that don't you? You are just getting desperate in your arguments. Other people are also voicing their concerns about the safety of an EVF. Even if your eye to the TV experiment goes wrong, you will still have one eye left. Let us know how it turns out.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 17:14 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv Your quote does NOT prove mirrorless has a higher profit margin for cameras WITH A VIEWFINDER! The product mix is obviously different since DSLRs by definition must have a viewfinder. Your quote shows the trouble with statistics (yes I am a math major). When you have a relatively small base such as Sony, Olympus etc. a relatively small dollar amount is STATISTICALLY a big move.

Since you are now resorting to Ad hominem attacks against me it is obvious to both of us that you are losing the argument....and Engilsh is my first language.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 17:06 UTC
In reply to:

JEROME NOLAS: Hardly. The path they (mostly Sony)are walking on is weird, expensive. DSLR will be with us another 100 years...

@osv Since you are convinced my concerns are spurious, why don't you do science a favor and place your eye an inch from your TV for hours on end and report back to us.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 16:47 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv You are the fanboy for making false claims about profitability for mirrorless. Please show evidence of your claim about mirrorless having a higher margin. Your claim is ONLY TRUE if there is no EVF!

As far as CIPA stats, I copied and pasted from THIS SITE's report in February. Please show where DPReview's report was incorrect. Is DPReview a pro DSLR fanboy?

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 16:41 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv " you forgot to mention how milc profit per unit is much better than than dslr profit per unit"

I call BS unless you are only looking at MILC with no EVF. Please prove your baseless claim. An EVF is much more expensive to manufacture than a pentamirror prism and mirror assembly because of economies of scale. That is why the least expensive current interchangeable lens cameras WITH VIEWFINDERS are the cheap Canon Rebels. Often an EVF is MORE expensive to manufacture, not less.

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 16:16 UTC
In reply to:

aftab: In 2011, 2.9 million units of mirrorless were sold. This increased to 4 million units in 2012. In 2012 IDC made a bold prediction: in 2014, 13 million mirrorless will be sold. This prediction was a failure. Mirrorless sale per year remained around 4 million units since then. Contrary to popular belief, mirrorless sale is not increasing in absolute numbers, its is increasing as a percent of total ILC sale as DSLR sale is falling. There is good indication that decline in DSLR sale is stabilizing . It is highly likely that DSLR sale will stabilize around 8 million units per year and mirrorless around 4-5 million units. This is the likely scenario in next 2-3 years. What will happen after this is anybody's guess. Why mirrorless sale has remained stagnant in last 5-6 years? Maybe because technology was still immature or because Canon and Nikon haven't been serious with it. But it is also possible that despite all innovations most people are not convinced with mirrorless.

@osv You forgot to mention how THIS year mirrorless tanked 15.4% while DSLR actually increased .1%.

"If you break Interchangeable Lens Cameras (ILCs) out of that picture and into its own graph, the story gets a bit rosier. ILC shipments (that's DSLR and Mirrorless combined) were down only 5.4% compared to the same month last year—DSLR sales by themselves actually eked up 0.1%, while mirrorless sales dropped by 15.8%—and outperformed February 2016 by 17.3%."

https://www.dpreview.com/news/7682436039/dslr-shipments-outperformed-mirrorless-in-february-compact-cameras-still-tanking

Link | Posted on Apr 9, 2018 at 15:04 UTC
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