wb2trf

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Joined on May 3, 2011

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On article Nikon interview: "We’re at a transitional stage" (495 comments in total)

Deck chairs on the Titanic. It's all over except the clean up. Reminds me of a recent story in the NYTimes lamenting the loss of local newspapers with a picture of a small town newspaper owner standing in front of a giant roll of newsprint. All this talk of transition from this line to that is just like one of those rolls of newsprint.

Link | Posted on Feb 16, 2020 at 18:57 UTC as 35th comment
In reply to:

wb2trf: Business conditions such as those reported by Nikon, when you are radically revising downward forecasts made just a few months ago (August), are absolute chaos to actually live through. Inside the Nikon camera division it will feel completely out of control because the bad news cycle is faster than the planning cycle. Before you can get the next downward plan done, the "facts" you were using to forecast have blown away your foundations and you must start over. Then that happens again, and again. Imagine pilots trying to control a 737 Max, That's what it feels like at Nikon.

The thing I can't understand is why Sony has been investing in this market. It just makes no sense. It is absolutely classic business wisdom to never invest in a capital intensive business that is experiencing free fall decline. But, there they are anyway.

I'm not sure why this absurd passion play germinated from my comment.

Lets be clear: Canon and Nikon are in the camera business because of long history, being stuck there in effect. They are not to blame for the disaster, but they haven't played their hand at all well. Nikon is in by far the worst situation of the Canon, Nikon, Sony trio. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some radical turn of events for Nikon: shutdown of cameras or acquisition in the next two years. If they were an American company they would be getting killed by Wall Street for hanging on.
Canon is in the middle situation of the three, but with huge challenges because the camera business is too big to close down and their other businesses aren't great. Sony could just call it quits in cameras and investors would probably just cheer them for acknowledging a mistake. Buying Minolta and then investing in the camera market was just business mistake. Not a huge one for Sony, given its size, but a mistake.

Link | Posted on Nov 16, 2019 at 14:53 UTC

Business conditions such as those reported by Nikon, when you are radically revising downward forecasts made just a few months ago (August), are absolute chaos to actually live through. Inside the Nikon camera division it will feel completely out of control because the bad news cycle is faster than the planning cycle. Before you can get the next downward plan done, the "facts" you were using to forecast have blown away your foundations and you must start over. Then that happens again, and again. Imagine pilots trying to control a 737 Max, That's what it feels like at Nikon.

The thing I can't understand is why Sony has been investing in this market. It just makes no sense. It is absolutely classic business wisdom to never invest in a capital intensive business that is experiencing free fall decline. But, there they are anyway.

Link | Posted on Nov 15, 2019 at 19:44 UTC as 28th comment | 15 replies

Rescoring firmware updates. Love it. I can't help but think this is like applauding a new tune as the band of the Titanic plays on.

Does anyone appreciate how incredibly difficult it is to keep a high capital investment business looking decent in an overall market that is plummeting, like this one? Only the Japanese would ever attempt it. It's so crazy. American business would have shut the doors a few years ago, just run away, and China is too busy with the markets that are actually growing. This doesn't end well.

Link | Posted on Jun 19, 2019 at 23:54 UTC as 39th comment | 2 replies
In reply to:

Docno: Sony is the second largest shareholder in Tamron (though at only about 12%). Now that lenses are so important to Sony’s bottom line, I wonder if they’d actually prefer Tammy to be producing lenses for their competitors ... wonder to what degree they can exert influence over company strategy

Probably no real influence.
I suspect that we will continue to get data saying that dslr revenue is dropping off a cliff and those stories will discourage the huge dslr installed base from investing in new lenses at the rate that it has in the past.
To me the whole camera market makes no sense as business anymore, so only the Japanese, with China blocking their moves into new businesses, would continue to invest in it. It is impossible to make a decent business in a market dropping as fast as this one is.

Link | Posted on Jun 6, 2019 at 14:50 UTC

Interesting to see the CEO come out and state the strategy that they have clearly been following for several years, namely to invest in non-camera businesses. I described this in a post in 2015 here: https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/55252148

Canon is not just turning away from investing in design of new cameras, it seems to be turning away from investing enough in product planning. The relationship of the M and R lines makes no sense. When they did the M the must have hoped that they would never make a FF mirrorless and then Sony forced them. It is not as bad as the relationship between Nikon 1 (dead) and NIkon Z, but still a big screw up.

Sony's camera strategy makes no sense to me. Granted it is only possible to make a run at this terrible camera market if you dominate the sensor market, as Sony does, but that doesn't mean you should make such a run. Why?

Nikon should sell itself to Sony. They consolidate their lines. Canon should drop out. Panasonic targets video only.

Link | Posted on Jan 29, 2019 at 04:03 UTC as 183rd comment | 4 replies
On article Should I buy the Sony a6400? Here’s how it compares (610 comments in total)
In reply to:

Razor512: Sony needs to make an A6000 V2 that can act as a successor to the A6000. They have nothing in their entry level lineup as after the A6000, they nearly doubled the price of every subsequent camera.

Calling any other camera in the series a successor, Is like calling the GTX 1080ti videocard a successor to the GTX 1060. Sure it is a better card, but it is a different class of card at a higher price.

Users looking for a lower cost entry into this range of camera, will be looking at the $600 price range that the A6000 occupied with a kit lens shortly after release.

I think they will bring out an A6000 successor at its price point or even lower. Makes sense.

Link | Posted on Jan 20, 2019 at 18:20 UTC
On article Should I buy the Sony a6400? Here’s how it compares (610 comments in total)
In reply to:

DeathArrow: There are very few APS-C lenses and FF Sony lenses ar very expensive.

This is just wrong. There are lots. The only category in which APS-C-only lack is long telephoto.
I choose mostly to shoot with prime lenses, shoot landscape and portraits, and I have no need for longer telephoto, as it happens. Among AF lenses I have: 16mm 1.4, 19mm 2.8, 24mm 1.8, 30mm 1.4 and 2.8, 50mm 1.8, 85mm 1.8. I also have the Rok 12mm f2 ,and 21mm 1.4 MF lenses. Most of these primes are optically excellent with a few being only good. All are APS-C specific. I also have 16-50mm and 55-210mm AF zooms, but I have always preferred primes.

Link | Posted on Jan 20, 2019 at 18:16 UTC
In reply to:

Storen: A6400 promises to be an excellent upgrade to A6300.
I wonder if it would support tethered focus and high-res live-view similar to A7III.
It is still not listed in the Imaging Edge "supported devices" page.
I wish Dpreview mentions the tethering capabilities of the cameras in their reviews.

sony site seems to say yes, but I didnt investigate closely as it isn't of interest to me

Link | Posted on Jan 16, 2019 at 00:59 UTC
In reply to:

boy_wander: Pretty disappointing. I wanted an upgrade for my a6500.

Depends on what you need. I have no use for ibis, so this probably is one.

Link | Posted on Jan 15, 2019 at 23:54 UTC
In reply to:

expressivecanvas: I've been a pretty satisfied Sony customer over the past four years but this new camera seems a bit lame and more like a FrankenSony with no clear advantages to what is already available. I think perhaps Sony is no longer headed in the direction they had planned or hoped.

Looks great to me. Continuous EyeAF in stills and video and silent 8FPS with continuous updating.

Link | Posted on Jan 15, 2019 at 23:52 UTC
In reply to:

TonyPM: Looks like it will have a good price, but no ibis. In some way it looks even better than the a6500.

If you dont need ibis, it is much better than the 6500.

Link | Posted on Jan 15, 2019 at 23:48 UTC
In reply to:

wb2trf: This looks like an excellent new camera at a good price (US) for great new features. The AF and Eye AF looks like big upgrade and beyond what any other camera does anywhere near this price. 8FPS silent shooting with continuous updating is also great at this price. It also looks like they may have gotten a good touch screen implementation. I guess it will sell very well and give competitors fits. I suppose there will be an A7000 type product with these features and large battery and ibis that will come this year, but this should do well in the mod market for a long time.

mid market

Link | Posted on Jan 15, 2019 at 23:46 UTC

This looks like an excellent new camera at a good price (US) for great new features. The AF and Eye AF looks like big upgrade and beyond what any other camera does anywhere near this price. 8FPS silent shooting with continuous updating is also great at this price. It also looks like they may have gotten a good touch screen implementation. I guess it will sell very well and give competitors fits. I suppose there will be an A7000 type product with these features and large battery and ibis that will come this year, but this should do well in the mod market for a long time.

Link | Posted on Jan 15, 2019 at 23:45 UTC as 80th comment | 1 reply
In reply to:

wb2trf: Editorial zeitgeist here is still dominated by Canikon and dslrs.

The glaring case for this, hanging around since the origin of mirrorless, is the feature "Viewfinder for video". There is no viewfinder for video in a dslr and yet DPR can't think clearly enough to recognize this feature, or even make note of it in a table. No "Con" or "Pro" for feature "Viewfinder for Video". For all one can tell at DPR the assumption is that every camera neophyte somehow knows that if they choose a dslr instead of a mirrorless, there will not be a viewfinder for video. If they live by a beach and want to video in brightness, surprise! and too bad. This is just an amazing case of presumption-based blindness here.
So now, if Nikon hadn't brought out the Z with IBIS, then IBIS wouldn't have been "real" enough for DPR editorial to "see it".

It's really simple. DSLRs lack a viewfinder when shooting video, mirrorless (and Sony A which is now irrelevant) have it for video. It makes no sense that "Viewfinder for video - Y/N" is not listed as a feature for interchangable lens cameras with Y for most mirrorless and N for all dslrs. It isn't listed as such because DPR lives in a "dslr culture" in which "everyone knows" that the mirror is up blocking the viewfinder during video.
Had the industry developed in the opposite direction, with optical viewfinder dslrs appearing after mirrorless evf cameras had become common, the lack of a vf for video would have constantly been listed as a "Con" for dslrs.

Link | Posted on Dec 22, 2018 at 01:14 UTC

Editorial zeitgeist here is still dominated by Canikon and dslrs.

The glaring case for this, hanging around since the origin of mirrorless, is the feature "Viewfinder for video". There is no viewfinder for video in a dslr and yet DPR can't think clearly enough to recognize this feature, or even make note of it in a table. No "Con" or "Pro" for feature "Viewfinder for Video". For all one can tell at DPR the assumption is that every camera neophyte somehow knows that if they choose a dslr instead of a mirrorless, there will not be a viewfinder for video. If they live by a beach and want to video in brightness, surprise! and too bad. This is just an amazing case of presumption-based blindness here.
So now, if Nikon hadn't brought out the Z with IBIS, then IBIS wouldn't have been "real" enough for DPR editorial to "see it".

Link | Posted on Dec 21, 2018 at 17:58 UTC as 63rd comment | 2 replies
In reply to:

wb2trf: This is just historical stupidity. If dslr's had silent shooting or eye-af or no blackout, and mirrorless did not, instead of the other way around, these retrogrades would have a headline that said "Three essential features that mirrorless lack."

Just get on with it already. DSLRs day is gone. We'll just be lucky if dedicated camera's days aren't gone.

The point is that while dslrs and mirrorless each have advantages, the advantage list for dslrs a few years ago was very long, now it is very short and shrinking yearly, while the advantage list for mirrorless is already longer and will continue to grow. Of course since some needs are so specific it means that some are stuck with dslrs for a while longer, but to call this particular feature "essential", as if everyone hit this need and not the need for, for example, silent shooting, is absurd.
The big picture remains that cameras are a long term shrinking business, and no investors like such a market, a fact that will have its day, somehow.

Link | Posted on Oct 29, 2018 at 02:51 UTC

This is just historical stupidity. If dslr's had silent shooting or eye-af or no blackout, and mirrorless did not, instead of the other way around, these retrogrades would have a headline that said "Three essential features that mirrorless lack."

Just get on with it already. DSLRs day is gone. We'll just be lucky if dedicated camera's days aren't gone.

Link | Posted on Oct 27, 2018 at 23:36 UTC as 70th comment | 4 replies
On article Google Pixel 3 XL sample gallery (377 comments in total)

The voices of desperation in these comments are so transparent here and so sad.

This technology, cumulatively, is great, and is killing the camera business as it has existed. As I see it the camera business is sustained only by the characteristic stubbornness of Japanese industry, but that can't hold out forever. If the industry had been American, it would have been portfolio-divested into almost non-existence by now.

Link | Posted on Oct 20, 2018 at 15:05 UTC as 41st comment | 3 replies
On article Nikon Z7 Review (4475 comments in total)

Image quality from all FF cameras has been very good for a long time. The differences rarely show up in the real world.
AF performance formerly was a challenge for mirrorless as a class. This Nikon looks like Sony AF performance from cameras launched about 4 years ago, although it lacks Eye-AF, a very useful feature which has been around longer.
The problem with mirrorless for NIkon and for Canon, is that mirrorless puts a premium on semiconductor technology. For semiconductors, aggregate volume, how far down the learning curve you are, is often critical. Sony is the world volume leader in semiconductor sensors. Catching the leader in semiconductors is classically next to impossible.
People have been saying that this is Nikon's first mirrorless and they will catch up. But, in fact, they may slip further behind.

Link | Posted on Oct 17, 2018 at 01:44 UTC as 366th comment | 1 reply
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