eroll1

Lives in Israel Israel
Joined on Oct 19, 2010

eroll1's recent activity

  • Replied in Leonard Cohen
    The best song writer of all times. May he rest in peace. Bird on a wire
  • It was as wrong as the others. It's last version predicted Trump will win the popular vote by 3%, but he is losing it by 1%. That is 4% off the mark, most other polls had Clinton winning by 3-4% ...
  • They went to sleep after Wisconsin was called and it was game over. If they waited for the final count they would still be waiting as NH, MI and AZ are still too close to call.
  • He did if you bothered to read. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/ Oh, and Fermat is a very bad example as he is famous for not ...
  • He is not an academic, He is an employee of ESPN.
  • Trump's unlikeability numbers were even higher.
  • By the way, the simpsons predicted Trump's presidency 16 years ago. http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/flashback-watch-the-simpsons-predict-president-trump-in-2000-20160317 There is another ...
  • You do realize his model was by far more accurate then his competitors such as NYT, HuffPost and the Princeton consortium who all gave trump less then 5% victory. His final prediction gave Trump ...
  • The issue is the 'winner takes all' nature of the election in each state. Eliminate that and every vote counts.
  • Thanks, I didn't know that.
  • That would give the smaller states unproportional power. I think some kind of combination between the popular vote and the electoral college is needed. for example, distribute the electors of each ...
  • He only predicted 6 elections, out of which only 2 (2000, 2004) were close. Not very impressive. He says that his prediction apply to a generic republican candidate win, and trump is nothing but a ...
  • Unfortunately, that is the only thing he is good at.
  • Please take him, by all means.
  • Let me go back to my example. Let say the demographic is 50-50 black and white voters and black voters vote 90% dems while white vote 90% repubs. The pole sampled 60% black and 40% whites, without ...
  • Pollsters normalize their polls based on demographics. For example, suppose the demographic is 50% white and 50% blacks, but a certain poll sampled 60% blacks and 40% whites, the pollster will ...
  • Lyle, instead of linking to any random poll that show Trump ahead and ignoring most other polls, why don't you take a look at an aggregate of all polls to get an idea how your beloved Donald is ...
  • Ate they? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/thousands-rally-in-paris-to-protest-crime-targeting-chinese/article31704722/
  • That is like watching an ad for the candidate. Unfortunately most media interviews are like that.
  • Al Nusra is an Al Qaeda linked group that was designated a terror group by the US in 2012. Unless you can provide a connection to the US then you are still lying. The UN report was able to identify ...
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