You don't understand the economic realities of FF versus APS. There
are a number of reasons why manufacturers won't let APS go away:
I think I do.
- 1. Cost. It costs more to make a FF sensor than it does an APS
sensor. It always will.
As we have seen with LCD monitors and screens, prices keep falling for even the largest of areas. Manufacturing costs and technology cause this so the price will continue to fall, even on sensors.
- 2. Selling premium. Whether the actual cost difference between an
APS sensor and a FF sensor is a lot or a little, a manufacturer can
charge more for the FF sensor because of its percieved higher price.
For example, lets say the cost difference of manufacturing an APS 40D
versus a FF 5D is only $300.
The problem with this is that before FF sensors really became reality, crop sensors were all there was, and they were able to differentiate between higher, lower using the same size sensor with camera body MP and feature difference rebel compared to D30. I don't think this is a valid point because it was done with crop bodies already, FF will be no different.
- 3. Upgrade path. A good many people start off buying an APS body
like the 40D. Then, some day they decide they want to "upgrade" to a
FF body like the 5D, even though the 40D actually outspec's the 5D in
many ways.
Again see above, crop sensors had an upgrade path between the rebel and a D30 with a large price difference. There will be an upgrade path even with all FF sensors on the market, just as it was when there was when crop sensors were the dominant chip. As a consumer, would I rather start off with a crop sensor or FF, if the price difference is negligable then FF will have the advantage. If they decide to upgrade, they upgrade to higher MP, better body, bigger buffer size, faster frames per second, weather seal, better feature set, wireless connection, better incamera processing, better display, longer shutter life, and the list can go on.
- 4. Lens sales. I have APS bodies. I bought a 10-22 EF-S to give
me wide angle on these APS bodies. I have a FF body. I bought a
17-40/4L to give me wide angle on the FF body. The 10-22 and 17-40
are actually duplicates of one another, except for different formats.
I don't have a problem with buying both.
Many people will have a problem buying both at least on the Canon side. Nikon has a major advantage here because they will be able to produce both DX and FX lenses that will work on FF sensors. You see only from the Canon perspective. When pixel density becomes similar between FF and crop, then for Nikon it will not matter, you will be able to buy the cheap crop lens or the FF lens for any mount. Canon will have a problem here and will have to keep the crop bodies around longer, Nikon will not have to and dedicate all plants manufacturing to FF and still create lower prices crop lenses for even FF low end cameras thus lowering cost. Cameras are upgraded every few years, lenses however last a very long time, which is bad news for the EF-S. I would predict Canon will replace EF-S with and new type of EF-SFF which will work on both crop and FF but only cover the crop sensor area. Thus again putting and end to the limited EF-S that is why I say that format is dead or near dead in the near future because Nikon thought ahead, Canon did not.
I'm sure there are many other reasons people can think of for
manufacturers not wanting to kill off APS. These are just a few.
Any manufacturer who plans on killing off APS and making ALL of their
bodies FF bodies is ultimately hurting themselves. They know this.
If Nikon wants to go all FF, let them. Lets see them try to compete
price-wise against APS bodies in the mid to lower segments, where
margins are a lot thinner, price competition is fierce, and consumers
are more price sensitive.
I believe lower pixel density will go to the low end consumers, Nikon will be able to tout that FF with lower pixel density will have better ISO/niose performance over crop sensor. The largest costs are RandD, design and manufacturing. Low volume is another thing that raises prices. If you sell large volume the price will go down. All you have to do is look at trends, once MP reach the cost effective maximum then larger realestate will be the differentiating factor. Sony does well in the low margin high volume segment and may take over that area leaving Nikon and Canon to fight for the upper end while Sony will be selling thousands of cameras.
I would worry more about Sony than Nikon as far as competition because Sony has more clout and money period, but do they have the business sense to compete with Canon and Nikon? Only time will tell but they have certainly learned how to dominate other markets with no signs of slowing.
Nikon has been trailing Canon but has learned from the mistakes of Canon, being first to market is not always best because competition can improve on your ideas and products.