Re: The way I see it.... #2
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You are pretty right Guy - I wonder if Henry Ford would approve? “You can have any shape camera body you like as long as it is rendered something like a dlsr”.
But I do think that there will always be a market for camera bodies with interchangeable lenses.
Just as soon as you put a mount system for interchangeable lenses on a mobile phone the whole mobile phone camera concept falls apart.
The phone camera is good for many things but depends entirely on being-there. And “bring there” means small, sleek, pocketable, rugged, and fully sealed so that gremlins cannot get at the sensor.
A mount system alone makes pocketing harder and no longer dust-gremlin proof.
But I will wear that digital systems cameras are running out of things to improve other than to pursue video as if this is the ultimate of all what those interested in photography secretly desire to do.
I will accept that video is an important branch of imaging but insist that it is just a branch that some decide is quite important. Nothing wrong with that, but the fact is that there are many, who are not eyes-riveted at a wonderful video future and are quite satisfied to mosey along with still-shooting.
If this still-shooting rump means anything then there comes a time when the camera in hand is quite good enough and future video improvement alone is just “a shrug”.
But where to then the camera body market? It is already happening when so many users decide to keep their present shutter squeeze for a while longer as “quite good enough”.
But camera companies have to change their business model - they are not going to be able to keep spinning out camera body updates which offer wonderful features and impossibly good sensors in future. The camera market has become used to the pace of change and seems to think that camera bodies will continue to offer huge improvements. My point is simply that they have identified video as the next frontier and that is good if video is our choice but some are content to settle in the pleasant plains of still photography rather than push on to videofornia, video improvements alone no longer cut the mustard.
But we all still buy lenses - no matter which type of photography we prefer.
Looking at other high tech innovations we can see that after a time the tech peaks. Then the market can either go for cheap disposable or a smaller volume of very high quality type that lasts effectively “forever” but is costly. We only need to look at the history of film cameras and we can see the cheap consumer models for everybody and the high quality expensive stuff was used forever, almost becoming a family heirloom.
Every family had their cheap family clicker and the best lifetime camera in a drawer for the time when only the best image might do.
The mobile phone camera is the cheap everyday camera that comes “free” with the “very essential” phone. We have some excellent ILC camera bodies about. I think that we will increasingly keep them longer and their replacement will be more from wearing out than because of some exciting new non-video improvement.