Will Fujifilm be next?

Started 4 months ago | Discussions
Greg7579
Greg7579 Forum Pro • Posts: 11,087
Re: No - Fuji have four big advantages
3

Iuvenis wrote:

1. Their imaging division has been profitable in all recent years, only becoming unprofitable in the last (Covid disrupted) quarter. Largely that is Instax, but it still means that they have no shareholder pressure to divest.

2. They're all-in when it comes to mirrorless. Canon and Nikon are still trying to migrate customers across from their DSLR mounts in the middle of a collapsing market, which is fraught with problems.

3. They occupy several niches, where it's hard for others to compete. For example, the enthusiast APSC market. Yes, Canon and Sony still sell more apsc cameras. However, only Fuji have a pro-level APSC system. Or the retro style niche. Olympus and Nikon dipped their toes into that, but Fuji are the only one to make it a success. Or medium format, where Fuji came from nowhere and have now cleaned up.

4. They are focused on video. Yes, it's not my main interest. However, video is one growth area within the market, and Fuji are now right up there with the best.

I thought you were plagiarizing me (I'm kidding there) because everything you said here I have posted many times since the virus started. You laid it out well, but didn't put enough emphasis on the GFX part of the equation. I have used the term "sweet spot" for years to describe my feelings about Fuji APSC and all of its advantages vs FF.

Fuji was brilliant not to dive into FF in the early mirrorless years. Then their more recent GFX move fit perfectly with that strategy. Fuji is putting tremendous pressure on the FF makers because it negates their top-end claims. Fuji has made MF available to mainstream enthusiasts with brilliant innovation and a gutsy move that shocked the camera world (and DPR, who was not warm to the idea at first, to say the least.)

I have done informal polls and "studies" on the MF Board - totally unscientific - just gut feel. I identified almost 100 GFX 100 buyers and I have reason to believe that only about 30% of them are pros. I think with the GFX 50r/s (and there are thousands of them), about 20% are pros. That says a lot, because advanced and very serious enthusiasts like me who were very tempted to buy high-res FF top-end cameras instead go GFX, and with their GFX they like some X. Good combination huh? That combination makes more sense than high res FF and Fuji X.

This worries the FF makers. So Fuji sweet spot X and high-end GFX is an important topic when talking about the camera industry.

These two "niches" we talk about - Fuji X and GFX, are much more than niches. Fuji has positioned itself well to survive these troubles covid markets and the ongoing FF wars where not everyone will survive.

As to my comment about how the OP should post that same rhetorical question on the other Boards, I was not trying to be a smart-azz. I was serious but should have crafted my words more carefully.  That got me scolded a little by the Mods, and I can understand that sentiment, but it would be interesting because I thing that the question applies to them more than Fuji.

I always tell you guys that I have a code of personal conduct on DPR. I have strong opinions but never troll and I put money where my mouth is. I opine on things I have a lot of experience with - like Fuji cameras and lenses. I don't opine or brand-bash about cameras I do not own and shoot and I do not post on those Boards.

But I am going to ask the Moderators and DPR staff if I can post the following message on the Canon, Nikon, Panasonic, Leica and Sony Boards. If they give me permission, I am going to post this on those 5 Boards. Here is an example of the Canon post. I can clean it up a little, but something like this:

Greetings. I am Greg Johnson from the Fuji and Medium Format Boards. I admire Canon and shot it for decades. I switched to Fuji mirrorless years ago from Canon FF DSLRs but have followed Canon's move to mirrorless. I am excited about and looking forward to the Canon R5. Pulling for Canon in these difficult times. We need all the current surviving players to be healthy in this camera industry and move forward from here. On the Fuji Board, someone referenced Olympus and asked "Is Fuji Next?" It was interesting and resulted in a lot of discussion. The same could be asked of all the big makers. So, as a guest to this Board who reads it a lot but never posts here, and as a long-time DPR poster with a decade of non-trolling participation, may I ask this: Considering the recent Olympus news, is Canon next?"

If the Moderators give me permission, I will craft a short post like that for all of the main players and post it on their Boards. (Even Leica - a Board I post on occasionally because I shoot a Q2.) If the moderators discourage such a post for some reason, even though it is clearly not anything approaching a rule break, I will not do it.

Have a nice weekend. Try to get out and shoot.

I shot yesterday in a project to try to figure out the behavior of Fuji auto focus bracketing. It took me 65 shots using Step 10 to get the focus point to move one foot through a close-up scene (not macro) which was about half the frame at 250mm. I posted it on the MF Board and will be shooting more today to try to figure out the deep mystery of Fuji auto focus bracketing to be used for focus stacking. If I succeed, I will be the second shooter in the history of Fuji shooting to figure it out. (I think Jim K understands it to the 80% level, but only he and no one else.) But to be honest, I don't think you can figure it out completely. Until Fuji allows us to pick our own focus start and end points, it will be a trial-and-error mystery. The steps and number of frames to use is a deep mystery that only the two or three programmers at Fuji could possibly ever understand.

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Jerry-astro
MOD Jerry-astro Forum Pro • Posts: 16,157
Re: No - Fuji have four big advantages
2

Greg7579 wrote:

But I am going to ask the Moderators and DPR staff if I can post the following message on the Canon, Nikon, Panasonic, Leica and Sony Boards. If they give me permission, I am going to post this on those 5 Boards. Here is an example of the Canon post. I can clean it up a little, but something like this:

Greetings. I am Greg Johnson from the Fuji and Medium Format Boards. I admire Canon and shot it for decades. I switched to Fuji mirrorless years ago from Canon FF DSLRs but have followed Canon's move to mirrorless. I am excited about and looking forward to the Canon R5. Pulling for Canon in these difficult times. We need all the current surviving players to be healthy in this camera industry and move forward from here. On the Fuji Board, someone referenced Olympus and asked "Is Fuji Next?" It was interesting and resulted in a lot of discussion. The same could be asked of all the big makers. So, as a guest to this Board who reads it a lot but never posts here, and as a long-time DPR poster with a decade of non-trolling participation, may I ask this: Considering the recent Olympus news, is Canon next?"

Sure, contact the Mods and see what they think.  I think a lot of this is being discussed over there already (admittedly I'm guessing) and whether someone who isn't an active user or owner of that brand would be seen as simply trolling is open for question.  Regardless, I'd leave the bolded part out as it's rather subjective and open to discussion, and frankly, not really relevant to your question.  (and  no, let's please not debate that here)

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Jerry-Astro
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John Gellings
John Gellings Veteran Member • Posts: 7,045
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?
1

Bobby Supardi wrote:

KennyXYZ wrote:

Olympus reveals plans to ditch its camera business

It will only matter of time. Doesnt matter who first or second. Camera industry is a sinking ship.

Samsung make a very tough decision and i believe they make the right choice. Olympus had fight a great fight by introducing ibis etc. That's what really matter.

Fuji is on his way. By rising price and minimal improvement, they digging their own grave.

Come on...

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Greg7579
Greg7579 Forum Pro • Posts: 11,087
Re: No - Fuji have four big advantages
1

Thanks Jerry.  I might do it.  I'm seriously considering it.  If I do it, it will have to be with the agreement that I never respond as the OP to any further post on that thread.  It would be too easy to get sucked into a response exchange.

I think I will write the Mods of those Boards and ask permission.  It is very important that they know I'm not trolling.

I am very familiar with those Boards and enjoy reading them.  I can tell you that there is fierce brand loyalty there and being in love with your own brand and defending it is not considered bad form like it is here.  So there is potential blowback on those Boards and there will be accusations of trolling (which gives me pause).

I'm thinking about it.

But today and tomorrow I'm "focused" (ha ha - get it?) on Fuji Focus Bracketing.

I am setting up a chess board right now to see how many shots it takes with the GF 50mm at two feet to travel through the chess board.  I plan on shooting 200 shots at Step 3.  These lessons apply to the XT-4 also, so maybe you focus stackers can follow it as I and the top scientists on the MF Board delve into the unknow mysteries of Fuji Focus Bracketing and the steps.  How does the Fuji algorithm know to stop the travel of the focus plane?  How far does it push through and why?  No one knows.  But I am going to find out.

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boogisha
boogisha Senior Member • Posts: 1,702
Re: Will Fujifilm be next? Instax (and printers)
1

CH179 wrote:

before I bought my xt2 or even interest in Fuji products, I always thought that Instax is a joke/meme camera or a toy for kids. like, "come on, who will buy this gimmick ****"

Now, after I learned about this, I quietly wish people would buy more of those instax to keep the camera division lol

Don`t forget Instax printers, which work wonderfully with "real" cameras, too... ehm, ok, non-Instax ones, at least So you can help as well!

It can be hit and miss, but it is a unique experience, feelings, memories and all.

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jrg
jrg Senior Member • Posts: 2,325
link to film about x system help!

There was a link to a film "burgler" something about the techs and brains behind the X system posted in this thread and I can't find it.  HELP!

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BryceM
BryceM Senior Member • Posts: 1,783
Re: Will Fujifilm be next? Instax (and printers)
1

boogisha wrote:

CH179 wrote:

before I bought my xt2 or even interest in Fuji products, I always thought that Instax is a joke/meme camera or a toy for kids. like, "come on, who will buy this gimmick ****"

Now, after I learned about this, I quietly wish people would buy more of those instax to keep the camera division lol

Don`t forget Instax printers, which work wonderfully with "real" cameras, too... ehm, ok, non-Instax ones, at least So you can help as well!

It can be hit and miss, but it is a unique experience, feelings, memories and all.

I just got one of the SP-3 square instant printers (on sale).  Very cool and compact, and it pairs nicely with an x-system body.

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The Fat Fish
The Fat Fish Senior Member • Posts: 1,259
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?
1

All camera brands are struggling, even the giants like Canon and Nikon. What we will likely see is some changes in the way Fuji does things.

1) I can see Fuji dropping X-Trans in order to reduce costs, increase performance and appeal to a slightly wider market.

2) Consider the full frame market. I'd love a full frame X-T4 but its always been unlikely. Now full frame is coming more budget, Fuji may consider entering the market.

3) Reduce the prices of their cameras. For the most part, Fuji's are great value but the reduced cost of full frame may mean they need to reduce their APS-C price.

4) Invest in other areas to support their camera business. Fuji like Canon and Nikon are huge companies that compete in many industries. I can see those other industries attracting their primary focus.

5) Design some less retro styled bodies. I really like the Fuji designs like the X-T4 and the X-E3 but appealing to a niche market is risky.

6) Increase video features. This is something they have done well and started back with the X-T2. Many dinosaurs will claim this is a terrible idea but know that it isn't in place of stills, it's in addition to them.

7) Offer more affordable lenses. Fuji already have the XC line of lenses but I can see the XF line getting cheaper. When you get a good copy, Fuji lenses are fantastic but they are not cheap for APS-C. I can see some more aggressive lens pricing coming in future.

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jhorse Veteran Member • Posts: 4,110
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?
1

Hi, I hope not. I have not waded through the 87 replies above and I am sure we all want Fujifilm to thrive as a photographic equipment business. I think that with a focus on APS-C and MF they have two niches which make business sense.

What we need is more GAS!

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Spazmaster Regular Member • Posts: 213
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?
1

The Fat Fish wrote:

All camera brands are struggling, even the giants like Canon and Nikon. What we will likely see is some changes in the way Fuji does things.

1) I can see Fuji dropping X-Trans in order to reduce costs, increase performance and appeal to a slightly wider market.

2) Consider the full frame market. I'd love a full frame X-T4 but its always been unlikely. Now full frame is coming more budget, Fuji may consider entering the market.

3) Reduce the prices of their cameras. For the most part, Fuji's are great value but the reduced cost of full frame may mean they need to reduce their APS-C price.

4) Invest in other areas to support their camera business. Fuji like Canon and Nikon are huge companies that compete in many industries. I can see those other industries attracting their primary focus.

5) Design some less retro styled bodies. I really like the Fuji designs like the X-T4 and the X-E3 but appealing to a niche market is risky.

6) Increase video features. This is something they have done well and started back with the X-T2. Many dinosaurs will claim this is a terrible idea but know that it isn't in place of stills, it's in addition to them.

7) Offer more affordable lenses. Fuji already have the XC line of lenses but I can see the XF line getting cheaper. When you get a good copy, Fuji lenses are fantastic but they are not cheap for APS-C. I can see some more aggressive lens pricing coming in future.

2) I cant see them ever going FF, it would cannibalize to much of their other lines, plus if they WERE struggling, pouring a bunch of money into R&D for a full new line of lenses and bodys would be about the worst idea possible.

3 + 7) Reduce prices of cameras and lenses I agree with, even if just by a little to make a bit more competitive. Make the lenses the price that they were a year or two ago.

4) Fuji is already incredibly diverse and their imaging division only makes up 11% of their revenue if I remember correctly.

5) Less retro bodys they have with the X-H line, hopefully we see the rumoured X-H2 soon.

6) I agree and they are certainly getting there with the X-T4. I hope in the future the X-H line will have even better video features and maybe leave the X-T line for more photo oriented and reduce costs?
Personally I don't see Fuji failing any faster than Canon, Panasonic, or Nikon.
Sony will be last to go IMO because they are a huge company, lead the market in all features, especially AF. And supply sensors to many other company's.
Honestly watching that Fuji documentary linked in this thread gives me hope for the future. Fuji pivoted and diversified so quickly in the early 2000s they certainly know what theyre doing. They see photography as a must keep to stay true to their roots, even though they dont make much money off of it now.

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boogisha
boogisha Senior Member • Posts: 1,702
Re: link to film about x system help! "Camera Punk"?
1

jrg wrote:

There was a link to a film "burgler" something about the techs and brains behind the X system posted in this thread and I can't find it. HELP!

Not sure if it was in this thread, too, but might be you mean "Camera Punk"...?

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jrg
jrg Senior Member • Posts: 2,325
Re: link to film about x system help! "Camera Punk"?
1

boogisha wrote:

jrg wrote:

There was a link to a film "burgler" something about the techs and brains behind the X system posted in this thread and I can't find it. HELP!

Not sure if it was in this thread, too, but might be you mean "Camera Punk"...?

BINGO!!!!! THANX!!!! That's it!

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BWJunkie Regular Member • Posts: 447
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?

Spazmaster wrote:

The Fat Fish wrote:

All camera brands are struggling, even the giants like Canon and Nikon. What we will likely see is some changes in the way Fuji does things.

1) I can see Fuji dropping X-Trans in order to reduce costs, increase performance and appeal to a slightly wider market.

2) Consider the full frame market. I'd love a full frame X-T4 but its always been unlikely. Now full frame is coming more budget, Fuji may consider entering the market.

3) Reduce the prices of their cameras. For the most part, Fuji's are great value but the reduced cost of full frame may mean they need to reduce their APS-C price.

4) Invest in other areas to support their camera business. Fuji like Canon and Nikon are huge companies that compete in many industries. I can see those other industries attracting their primary focus.

5) Design some less retro styled bodies. I really like the Fuji designs like the X-T4 and the X-E3 but appealing to a niche market is risky.

6) Increase video features. This is something they have done well and started back with the X-T2. Many dinosaurs will claim this is a terrible idea but know that it isn't in place of stills, it's in addition to them.

7) Offer more affordable lenses. Fuji already have the XC line of lenses but I can see the XF line getting cheaper. When you get a good copy, Fuji lenses are fantastic but they are not cheap for APS-C. I can see some more aggressive lens pricing coming in future.

2) I cant see them ever going FF, it would cannibalize to much of their other lines, plus if they WERE struggling, pouring a bunch of money into R&D for a full new line of lenses and bodys would be about the worst idea possible.

3 + 7) Reduce prices of cameras and lenses I agree with, even if just by a little to make a bit more competitive. Make the lenses the price that they were a year or two ago.

4) Fuji is already incredibly diverse and their imaging division only makes up 11% of their revenue if I remember correctly.

5) Less retro bodys they have with the X-H line, hopefully we see the rumoured X-H2 soon.

6) I agree and they are certainly getting there with the X-T4. I hope in the future the X-H line will have even better video features and maybe leave the X-T line for more photo oriented and reduce costs?
Personally I don't see Fuji failing any faster than Canon, Panasonic, or Nikon.
Sony will be last to go IMO because they are a huge company, lead the market in all features, especially AF. And supply sensors to many other company's.
Honestly watching that Fuji documentary linked in this thread gives me hope for the future. Fuji pivoted and diversified so quickly in the early 2000s they certainly know what theyre doing. They see photography as a must keep to stay true to their roots, even though they dont make much money off of it now.

Canon, Nikon, and Sony has a much larger market share than Fujifilm when it comes to camera sales.

Assuming you are correct about Fujifilm's imaging division making up for 11% of their revenue, let's remember that their Instax cameras are what keeping their imaging division afloat.

Tim C.

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Greg7579
Greg7579 Forum Pro • Posts: 11,087
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?

We are having some fun now Fat Fish. Let me add some thoughts to your bits of wisdom.

The Fat Fish wrote:

All camera brands are struggling, even the giants like Canon and Nikon. What we will likely see is some changes in the way Fuji does things.

Maybe, but not all of the stuff you say below....  But maybe some of it.

1) I can see Fuji dropping X-Trans in order to reduce costs, increase performance and appeal to a slightly wider market.

Dropping XTrans will not increase performance. But I think it is a 20% possibility.

2) Consider the full frame market. I'd love a full frame X-T4 but its always been unlikely. Now full frame is coming more budget, Fuji may consider entering the market.

Never going to happen. Fuji never once ever came anywhere close to a decision to go FF.

3) Reduce the prices of their cameras. For the most part, Fuji's are great value but the reduced cost of full frame may mean they need to reduce their APS-C price.

I agree.

4) Invest in other areas to support their camera business. Fuji like Canon and Nikon are huge companies that compete in many industries. I can see those other industries attracting their primary focus.

Already happened.

5) Design some less retro styled bodies. I really like the Fuji designs like the X-T4 and the X-E3 but appealing to a niche market is risky.

Could happen, but not with the XT line. Maybe with the XH line.

6) Increase video features. This is something they have done well and started back with the X-T2. Many dinosaurs will claim this is a terrible idea but know that it isn't in place of stills, it's in addition to them.

Will happen. Has to happen.

7) Offer more affordable lenses. Fuji already have the XC line of lenses but I can see the XF line getting cheaper. When you get a good copy, Fuji lenses are fantastic but they are not cheap for APS-C. I can see some more aggressive lens pricing coming in future.

I don't know.... I hear you, but XF is some of the best glass in the world and it is priced right.

Good Post Fat Fish....

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The Fat Fish
The Fat Fish Senior Member • Posts: 1,259
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?

Greg7579 wrote:

We are having some fun now Fat Fish. Let me add some thoughts to your bits of wisdom.

The Fat Fish wrote:

1) I can see Fuji dropping X-Trans in order to reduce costs, increase performance and appeal to a slightly wider market.

Dropping XTrans will not increase performance. But I think it is a 20% possibility.

I vaguely remember an article stating that the cameras have to use increased processing  power to process the X-Trans CFA into the final stills/video? I could be wrong. If it is true, what else could that processing headroom be used for? Fast fps? Better video? Better AF? All would help sell the cameras more than X-Trans.

Given how it's not much of a selling point and in some cases deters customers, combined with the extra development and production costs it's an "easy win" in the cost saving department.

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John Gellings
John Gellings Veteran Member • Posts: 7,045
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?
6

Spazmaster wrote:

5) Less retro bodys they have with the X-H line, hopefully we see the rumoured X-H2 soon.

This would not be smart... many of us use Fuji exactly for this reason and have been here since the original X100 and X-Pro1.  I can never understand you guys that want to take a unique camera brand and turn them into something not unique.

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John Gellings
John Gellings Veteran Member • Posts: 7,045
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?

BWJunkie wrote:

Assuming you are correct about Fujifilm's imaging division making up for 11% of their revenue, let's remember that their Instax cameras are what keeping their imaging division afloat.

Tim C.

Afloat sounds like you think Fuji is almost sinking... no, Instax is the camera / film piece that makes them very profitable.  They had a record high income in March 2019.

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The Fat Fish
The Fat Fish Senior Member • Posts: 1,259
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?

John Gellings wrote:

Spazmaster wrote:

5) Less retro bodys they have with the X-H line, hopefully we see the rumoured X-H2 soon.

This would not be smart... many of us use Fuji exactly for this reason and have been here since the original X100 and X-Pro1. I can never understand you guys that want to take a unique camera brand and turn them into something not unique.

I don't personally want to see it happen. I love the X-T series design. I'm just offering thoughts on what Fuji could do to survive in a struggling industry.

As others have mentioned, it would likely be the X-H series.

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BWJunkie Regular Member • Posts: 447
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?

John Gellings wrote:

BWJunkie wrote:

Assuming you are correct about Fujifilm's imaging division making up for 11% of their revenue, let's remember that their Instax cameras are what keeping their imaging division afloat.

Tim C.

Afloat sounds like you think Fuji is almost sinking... no, Instax is the camera / film piece that makes them very profitable. They had a record high income in March 2019.

No need to get defensive, John.

Take a look at the infographic from 3rd quarter 2019 in the earlier thread here: https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/64079675

Photo imaging (which includes Instax): 257.5 billion

Optical device and electronic imaging: 129.4 billion

Like most other companies, Fujifilm didn't do well financially this year.

Tim C.

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John Gellings
John Gellings Veteran Member • Posts: 7,045
Re: Will Fujifilm be next?
3

The Fat Fish wrote:

John Gellings wrote:

Spazmaster wrote:

5) Less retro bodys they have with the X-H line, hopefully we see the rumoured X-H2 soon.

This would not be smart... many of us use Fuji exactly for this reason and have been here since the original X100 and X-Pro1. I can never understand you guys that want to take a unique camera brand and turn them into something not unique.

I don't personally want to see it happen. I love the X-T series design. I'm just offering thoughts on what Fuji could do to survive in a struggling industry.

As others have mentioned, it would likely be the X-H series.

But there is no indication that they are suffering yet and their market share is still growing.  Some businesses do not have to be #1 (or even #3) to be successful.  The X-H series (while great) is the safest model they make since it is the closest thing they have to the typical mirrorless cameras on the market.  Fujifilm didn't become popular by being safe.

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 John Gellings's gear list:John Gellings's gear list
Fujifilm X100V Fujifilm X-E3 Fujifilm X-H1 Fujifilm X-Pro3 Fujifilm XF 35mm F2 R WR +6 more
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