for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower Locked

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OP Jefftan Veteran Member • Posts: 3,163
Re: Real story: brutally competitive market

NjoyCam wrote:

Fuji is the real danger for m43 system.
Fuji offers at least equivalent cameras at cheaper prices.
We do not need to discuss the quality of their lenses.
Even Sony, Canon and Nikon must fear Fuij because they have much less APS-C lenses on offer.

i don't think so

no ibis, annoying x-trans

basleigh Regular Member • Posts: 225
Re: Real story: brutally competitive market

As Fuji owner satisfied except their lenses not that cheap at the top end. However when it comes medium zoom lenses Fuji 50-140mm at 995g too big as compared to OLYMPUS 12-100mm at 560g. For me MFT a more attractive proposition for medium zoom lens with hardly any price difference. OMD E-M1 II Mark 2 on my shopping list to accompany my X-T2. That way I never have to change lenses. My FF A7 will be collecting dust.

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bobn2
bobn2 Forum Pro • Posts: 62,030
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

Yandrosxx wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

Jefftan wrote:

https://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2019/03/15/fujifilm-qa-cpplus-2019-af-tidbits-lenses-100-mp

TI: Yes, yes. I think the customers should have different options. We don't believe that all of the customers will go to full-frame. At the moment, I think the proportion of full-frame is probably one-third of the market by value.

DE: Oh, by value actually. So in terms of unit sales, it would be much lower.

TI: Yes, so two-thirds of the market is non-full frame, which is predominantly APS-C, Micro Four Thirds, and some medium-format as well.

TI: We really just cannot believe that projection of Canon's.

DE: Yeah. What are your projections, what do you think the market will do overall?

TI: I think it all depends on what innovation and what influence comes from the manufacturers. It's our mission to make the market viable. So I think our projection is there's a lot of room even to grow further in the camera market.

DE: It might even grow? (!)

TI: Yeah, yeah, yeah. If we look at the Asian market, there's a huge population over there. Some countries may decline, but some countries soon will change to growth. I think overall, the global camera market, you know...

DE: ...is actually going to grow as well. Wow, that's interesting. Yeah, certainly I hear from everyone that China is a huge market, and it's got to be pretty low penetration for cameras there still, so there's a lot of opportunity there.

TI: Yes.

I'm not sure what this thread has to do with micro Four Thirds, or why it's on this forum, but here goes anyway.

The specialist photographic market is on the cusp of a major change. The market is declining. The compact cameras which formed the huge majority a few years ago have been wiped out. In another few years the market will look very different from what it does now. The bet that most camera manufacturers seem to be making is that there will still be profits in the market, but with higher value, lower volume products. So, that is where the action is. The question is, not what will dominate in today's market, but what will in this new market. Simplistically, it is the lower end that get wiped out first. It's probably unlikely that the size of that 30% will change much, but in a few years it could be closer to 70-90%. Which is also not to say that there is not still potential life in the remaining 30-10%.

In that context, you can understand the game Panasonic is playing.

I believe folks are grossly underestimating how important bulk and size are going to be going forward in any ILC market that develops and how much less MPX and IQ are going to matter to consumer decisions.

I think the market gets more and more differentiated, and if a company can play the same technology base to offer a range of quite low volume products to cover all the options, they're likely to be more successful than those that just cover one.

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Ride easy, William.
Bob

bobn2
bobn2 Forum Pro • Posts: 62,030
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

Tom Caldwell wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

Tom Caldwell wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

Jefftan wrote:

https://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2019/03/15/fujifilm-qa-cpplus-2019-af-tidbits-lenses-100-mp

TI: Yes, yes. I think the customers should have different options. We don't believe that all of the customers will go to full-frame. At the moment, I think the proportion of full-frame is probably one-third of the market by value.

DE: Oh, by value actually. So in terms of unit sales, it would be much lower.

TI: Yes, so two-thirds of the market is non-full frame, which is predominantly APS-C, Micro Four Thirds, and some medium-format as well.

TI: We really just cannot believe that projection of Canon's.

DE: Yeah. What are your projections, what do you think the market will do overall?

TI: I think it all depends on what innovation and what influence comes from the manufacturers. It's our mission to make the market viable. So I think our projection is there's a lot of room even to grow further in the camera market.

DE: It might even grow? (!)

TI: Yeah, yeah, yeah. If we look at the Asian market, there's a huge population over there. Some countries may decline, but some countries soon will change to growth. I think overall, the global camera market, you know...

DE: ...is actually going to grow as well. Wow, that's interesting. Yeah, certainly I hear from everyone that China is a huge market, and it's got to be pretty low penetration for cameras there still, so there's a lot of opportunity there.

TI: Yes.

I'm not sure what this thread has to do with micro Four Thirds, or why it's on this forum, but here goes anyway.

The specialist photographic market is on the cusp of a major change. The market is declining. The compact cameras which formed the huge majority a few years ago have been wiped out. In another few years the market will look very different from what it does now. The bet that most camera manufacturers seem to be making is that there will still be profits in the market, but with higher value, lower volume products. So, that is where the action is. The question is, not what will dominate in today's market, but what will in this new market. Simplistically, it is the lower end that get wiped out first. It's probably unlikely that the size of that 30% will change much, but in a few years it could be closer to 70-90%. Which is also not to say that there is not still potential life in the remaining 30-10%.

In that context, you can understand the game Panasonic is playing.

My thoughts exactly.

But I think that there is room for high performing compact cameras as well.

Mobile phones are a basic camera device that are more than good enough for more casual users and appears free. No basic capability compact camera can compete with this.

But I that it is a mistake for manufacturers to effective retreat into larger camera bodies.

The only benefit is the “pricing by kilogram weight” theory where larger cameras and larger lenses can be sold for higher prices. This theory flows from the adulation of the dslr as a “proper camera” and all this stems from perceived status whereby most will pay more for a camera that reeks of status.

Not that smaller camera bodies cannot be very capable - the GM5 is a good example of what can be done. It will be criticised for lack of features but the reality is that the GM5 can actually do all the basic things that are expected of a camera - gee-whizz misses out.

The GM5 was not a success - in my mind it was simply because it was classified as “a toy” by much of the market on the basis: small compact cameras are not capable and therefore they are cheap - the GM5 hit the market at a price where it was not cheap enough. It did sell reasonably well at prices that were less than Panasonic had obviously intended. So what did Panasonic do - thinking that this was a price point at which they could still sell entry level compact cameras if they rolled much of the technology form the GM series into a cheaper to make body and marketed it as a fun camera for newbies. Of course they end up downgrading a very serious attempt to make a very small fully functional M4/3 camera body into “the toy” that “everyone” expected it to be.

So there is a bit of love-hate going on in M4/3 system - it has been proved that the 4/3 sensor can be used quite well as a systems camera in a body the size of a Pentax Q or Nikon J1 and yet M4/3 buyers prefer more “features” whether they use them or not in larger camera bodies. Whilst the industry continues to shun smaller cameras as larger camera gear can elicit both higher prices and the higher margins that flow from this.

To be sure I am not saying all M4/3 cameras have to be smaller - just that M4/3 can make fully functional cameras smaller than FF cameras could ever be. The camera body size diversity that M4/3 is capable of achieving is a big plus for M4/3 and to ignore the capable tiny size is a mistake as the system needs a full range of (very capable) camera body sizes to difference it from other sensor size mount systems.

The issue in my book is the theory widely held that “compact” cameras are “entry level toys” and that they should not be expensive. So the only ones that are marketed are dumbed down to the price that the market will pay. As a result mobile phone cameras (being “free”) can likely out-perform the compact camera for “basic duty” - so what is the point?

The GM series are fully functional state of the art cameras (somwhat lacking in the gee-whizz department but not in the image capture area) which can use <<all>> the lenses that can be mounted on the M4/3 mount and it is self restriction of their use to entry level “toys” that made them look expensive.

Until the general thinking of the camera user market can appreciate that compact cameras <<can>> be made to out-perform mobile phone cameras by being “systems cameras” then we are doomed to being given ever larger and more feature laden camera bodies as the manufacturers thrash around trying to out-status their full frame sensor cousins.

This theory came to a head with me when I first made a truly good dslr/EF-lens kit and realised that this great kit was not suited to be packed for airline travel.

The one camera body - many lenses theory still reigns supreme so a single larger camera body and multiple small lenses might still seem a good idea. But consider that the GM5 is only “a pack of cards” larger than a lens it is attached to then a series of GM5 bodies each attached to a lens can be pro-like used and also easily fit inot one carry on bag that might struggle with one “large” camera body and just a couple of spare lenses.

... and so multiple expensive tiny camera bodies get to be a $ hill to climb over - so they might become “pro-level” tinies and a joke for anyone to use if they have any appreciation of status-value. The very public preception of “toy camera” will assuredly kill off the use of multiple GM5 size bodies except for the fringe area of photography - even a large expensive lens on a GM5 cannot change perceived opinion that the dslr size/shape is king.

Anyway - “won’t work” as long as “compact cameras” are considered “toys” and large cameras still radiate “status” and reflect the “professional intent” of the user.

Maybe “one day” the very small camera body will be sold as a premium product but I am not holding my breath

Meanwhile if mobile phone cameras somehow came free in a compact car body it might make things tough for compact BMW and Audi cars where you had to actually buy your own camera.

I think the problem in this kind of market is maintaining the volume that the lower end needs to be profitable. I think you're quite right, there will continue to be demand for compact cameras, the question is whether there is sufficient demand at a price which will make money. These compact cameras will be expensive by today's standards, which is,why they'll get squeezed by FF cameras. However, if they find a niche which justifies the purchase for enough people to make money, they'll work. My own view is,that mFT already has such a niche, so long as,they don't make it so big it doesn't fit in there any more.

Agreed. I think GM5 because it suits me. But we could also think Pen-F and GX9 - or the GX8 ramped up in another lifetime - just as well.

But there is a fashion statement about that is saying that if it isn’t looking like a dslr then it still isn’t a proper camera.

But things might change - I suspect that there might be a boutique, expensive, truly small, camera down the track but it might have to wait for a global shutter and an ultra compact IBIS system. It has to be as few holds barred as possible as the market is not going to buy a tiny camera unless it is cashed right up with features as well.

I think we're close to being in complete agreement. 'Small and loaded' is probably where that particular nice is, which is why it's frustrating that we seem to get the choice between small and loaded. I don't believe the idea that IBIS must be big, either. Nikon and Sony both seem to put IBIS with FF sensors in bodies the same size as mFT bodies with IBIS (smaller than some) so it should be possible to put an mFT sensor with IBIS in a smaller body.

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Ride easy, William.
Bob

VideoPic
VideoPic Senior Member • Posts: 1,359
Changing from Canon or Sony FF yes, from MFT I would say NO

NjoyCam wrote:

Fuji is the real danger for m43 system.
Fuji offers at least equivalent cameras at cheaper prices.
We do not need to discuss the quality of their lenses.
Even Sony, Canon and Nikon must fear Fuij because they have much less APS-C lenses on offer.

I agree and support the idea that Fuji did a great job making very interesting cameras and taking full advantage of mirrorless lens design and what looks like great lenses.....

I would say somebody changing from a click clack Canon DSLR to a Fuji is a no brainer until the Canon owner are confronted with the "we all knew" Fuji quirks. Canon can be what it is (operating 100 years back in history) their stuff works. The EOS RIP to Fuji, absolute a NO brainer......

Not the same for Sony.... Sony A7 series are great cams, especially the V3 range. Their downfall is those huge expensive lenses. Fuji might be a welcome alternative to Sony.

Somebody changing from a MFT system to Fuji to learn...ouch no real improvement in IQ, quirks they all knew about........ really expensive pro (are they really pro) lenses. Sooo limited lens range compared to MFT......and the killer NO IBIS.....not a great idea..... Even if they have IBIS with a XT4 it will take two to three versions before its even close to MFT IBIS.....

Fuji is a classic grass is greener example for MFT owners......

Before the mob cries, this is the MFT forum......I tried the Fuji's and quickly realized......huuuuuge market hype gents.

Siegfried

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Yandrosxx Regular Member • Posts: 129
Re: Real story: brutally competitive market

Jefftan wrote:

NjoyCam wrote:

Fuji is the real danger for m43 system.
Fuji offers at least equivalent cameras at cheaper prices.
We do not need to discuss the quality of their lenses.
Even Sony, Canon and Nikon must fear Fuij because they have much less APS-C lenses on offer.

i don't think so

no ibis, annoying x-trans

And Fuji is still a bulkier system for truly marginal IQ differences at the extreme ends of photography.  Why would I pick up a bigger, bulkier, no IBIS, XTrans, poorer weather sealing, less featured system over an Em1 Mark II?

I can't find any FF system compelling enough to do that much less an APSC system with less features.  Even FF systems have at least crappy IBIS and great CAF.

basleigh Regular Member • Posts: 225
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

A study of the Maginot line for tactics could provide the answer. SONY PANSONIC LEICA NIKON CANON FUJIFILM RICOH-PENTAX OLYMPUS in trade war invading market segments like opening new fronts. Warning: By covering every segment there will be weak spots. The promise of technology as the deciding factor. You only have to checkout the pace of change with AF tracking system on OLYMPUS OMD M1X built for sport and action photography with AI. This camera just changed the rule-book; not just the goal posts. The day is coming when a camera manufacturer may call it a day in one particular sector? FF may not be the promised land as many suppose.

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basleigh Regular Member • Posts: 225
Re: Real story: brutally competitive market

That being the case how come my Fujifilm X-T2 w/16mm a far more rewarding experience than my SONY A7 w/35mm. Never underestimate camera design to test the skills of any photographer using his / her imagination. Some classic cameras offer more than just electronic wizardry. A camera is not a computer yet.

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bobn2
bobn2 Forum Pro • Posts: 62,030
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

basleigh wrote:

A study of the Maginot line for tactics could provide the answer. SONY PANSONIC LEICA NIKON CANON FUJIFILM RICOH-PENTAX OLYMPUS in trade war invading market segments like opening new fronts. Warning: By covering every segment there will be weak spots.

Or niches. Use the terminology you like.

The promise of technology as the deciding factor. You only have to checkout the pace of change with AF tracking system on OLYMPUS OMD M1X built for sport and action photography with AI. This camera just changed the rule-book; not just the goal posts.

That's a stretch, even for the best goalie around. I don't think that camera has changed any rule, yet alone the whole rule-book.

The day is coming when a camera manufacturer may call it a day in one particular sector? FF may not be the promised land as many suppose.

I don't think that anyone supposed it to be  a promised land. It just seems to be the territory that most of the camera companies think they'll keep the firmest footing. That doesn't preclude a nimble strategy, jumping from foothold to foothold. Probably for them the best strategy isn't loading yourself up with unnecessary weight and bulk.

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Ride easy, William.
Bob

Mark Ransom
Mark Ransom Veteran Member • Posts: 5,742
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

Yandrosxx wrote:

With the advancements in sensor technologies, I find it really remarkable that folks think FF IQ is going to be the determinate factor going forward. It's already something many folks don't think is worth it or necessary. Size, portability and features are going to drive this conversation.

Most people forget 4/3 got to where it is today by cannibalizing larger sensor market share. It's not a fad folks.

I don't disagree on the desirability of m4/3, but I think it's wrong to put faith in new sensor technologies. Remember the days when each generation of PC was twice as fast as the one before? When's the last time you saw that happen? We're reaching the same point with sensors, where IQ improvements from one generation to the next are subtle at best.

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junk1 Senior Member • Posts: 1,517
Re: What will appeal to the Chinese?

China buys more cars annually (for a few years now) than any other country.

I wonder if "selfie" cameras such as GF9/GF10/GX850 would be popular in China, as it is in Japan (and with me, LOL).

jwilliams Veteran Member • Posts: 4,502
Where have ...

Jefftan wrote:

NjoyCam wrote:

Fuji is the real danger for m43 system.
Fuji offers at least equivalent cameras at cheaper prices.
We do not need to discuss the quality of their lenses.
Even Sony, Canon and Nikon must fear Fuij because they have much less APS-C lenses on offer.

i don't think so

no ibis, annoying x-trans

Where have you been? Fuji has had IBIS for a while now. It is in the XH-1. As for the other bodies if you are shooting zooms you have IS also.

Fuji probably has some of the best cameras and lenses out there right now. M43 and everyone else should worry about them. They have been releasing better cameras at a quick pace. The X-H1 is on the older of the line, but soon the X-H2 will be out. If they just add the sensor and video of the XT3/30 I cannot think of any APSC or m43 camera that is better. I'd say the same of the XT-3 right now if it had IBIS.

There must be a lot of fear among the m43 faithful of Fuji since people seem to need to bash them with totally invalid points.

For a long time m43 had the IBIS advantage all to itself. That has been gone for a while now. m43 can't rest on its past laurels.

Edit: Just noticed the XT-3 won the DPR award for the best camera under $1500 beating the EM5 II and Pen F. Horrible camera apparently Would have been interesting to see where they ranked it compared to the EM1 II, but it didn't make the cost cut being overpriced and all. I am wondering why the Panny G9 wasn't in there as it is priced at $1200 in the US and it is definitely the best m43 camera available at this time.

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Jonathan

bobn2
bobn2 Forum Pro • Posts: 62,030
Re: Where have ...

jwilliams wrote:

There must be a lot of fear among the m43 faithful of Fuji since people seem to need to bash them with totally invalid points.

I don't think it's fear. I think it's that they feel betrayed. Fujifilm was a member of the 'consortium'. I remember the stream of threads on the FT forum predicting the new series of Fujifilm FT cameras, then along came the X mount.

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Bob

OP Jefftan Veteran Member • Posts: 3,163
Re: Where have ...

jwilliams wrote:

Where have you been? Fuji has had IBIS for a while now. It is in the XH-1. As for the other bodies if you are shooting zooms you have IS also.

Fuji probably has some of the best cameras and lenses out there right now. M43 and everyone else should worry about them. They have been releasing better cameras at a quick pace. The X-H1 is on the older of the line, but soon the X-H2 will be out. If they just add the sensor and video of the XT3/30 I cannot think of any APSC or m43 camera that is better. I'd say the same of the XT-3 right now if it had IBIS.

There must be a lot of fear among the m43 faithful of Fuji since people seem to need to bash them with totally invalid points.

For a long time m43 had the IBIS advantage all to itself. That has been gone for a while now. m43 can't rest on its past laurels.

Edit: Just noticed the XT-3 won the DPR award for the best camera under $1500 beating the EM5 II and Pen F. Horrible camera apparently Would have been interesting to see where they ranked it compared to the EM1 II, but it didn't make the cost cut being overpriced and all. I am wondering why the Panny G9 wasn't in there as it is priced at $1200 in the US and it is definitely the best m43 camera available at this time.

X-H1 ibis as good as Olympus? it is also in a super heavy body

i mean useful ibis not like the ibis in my A6500 which is useless

also x-trans problem is well known, just go fuji forum and look for worm thread

i am no m43 faithful, i just decided to switch to m43 from Sony.

I don't have steady hands and need good ibis, only m43 can give me that

VideoPic
VideoPic Senior Member • Posts: 1,359
It's easy to slap an IBIS badge on a camera.......

Jefftan wrote:

jwilliams wrote:

Where have you been? Fuji has had IBIS for a while now. It is in the XH-1. As for the other bodies if you are shooting zooms you have IS also.

Fuji probably has some of the best cameras and lenses out there right now. M43 and everyone else should worry about them. They have been releasing better cameras at a quick pace. The X-H1 is on the older of the line, but soon the X-H2 will be out. If they just add the sensor and video of the XT3/30 I cannot think of any APSC or m43 camera that is better. I'd say the same of the XT-3 right now if it had IBIS.

There must be a lot of fear among the m43 faithful of Fuji since people seem to need to bash them with totally invalid points.

For a long time m43 had the IBIS advantage all to itself. That has been gone for a while now. m43 can't rest on its past laurels.

Edit: Just noticed the XT-3 won the DPR award for the best camera under $1500 beating the EM5 II and Pen F. Horrible camera apparently Would have been interesting to see where they ranked it compared to the EM1 II, but it didn't make the cost cut being overpriced and all. I am wondering why the Panny G9 wasn't in there as it is priced at $1200 in the US and it is definitely the best m43 camera available at this time.

X-H1 ibis as good as Olympus? it is also in a super heavy body

i mean useful ibis not like the ibis in my A6500 which is useless

also x-trans problem is well known, just go fuji forum and look for worm thread

i am no m43 faithful, i just decided to switch to m43 from Sony.

I don't have steady hands and need good ibis, only m43 can give me that

Because there are NO standard, anyone can slap an IBIS logo on a camera and claim its like an Olympus camera.........

In reality, no gets close to what Olympus and now Panasonic achieves......

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Mark Ransom
Mark Ransom Veteran Member • Posts: 5,742
Re: It's easy to slap an IBIS badge on a camera.......

VideoPic wrote:

Because there are NO standard, anyone can slap an IBIS logo on a camera and claim its like an Olympus camera.........

In reality, no gets close to what Olympus and now Panasonic achieves......

Excuse me?

http://www.cipa.jp/image-stabilization/index_e.html

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VideoPic
VideoPic Senior Member • Posts: 1,359
Well my A7 II 5 axis IBIS is nowhere close to my EM1 MKII????

Mark Ransom wrote:

VideoPic wrote:

Because there are NO standard, anyone can slap an IBIS logo on a camera and claim its like an Olympus camera.........

In reality, no gets close to what Olympus and now Panasonic achieves......

Excuse me?

http://www.cipa.jp/image-stabilization/index_e.html

Huh......????

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Tech developments to wipe sensor size arguments, 3yr death countdown started Jan 2019

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bobn2
bobn2 Forum Pro • Posts: 62,030
Re: Well my A7 II 5 axis IBIS is nowhere close to my EM1 MKII????

VideoPic wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

VideoPic wrote:

Because there are NO standard, anyone can slap an IBIS logo on a camera and claim its like an Olympus camera.........

In reality, no gets close to what Olympus and now Panasonic achieves......

Excuse me?

http://www.cipa.jp/image-stabilization/index_e.html

Huh......????

Let me try to explain.

You said there is no standard.

Mark provided a link to a standard.

I think that means that you were wrong and he was right.

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Ride easy, William.
Bob

James Stirling
James Stirling Senior Member • Posts: 4,997
Re: Well my A7 II 5 axis IBIS is nowhere close to my EM1 MKII????

bobn2 wrote:

VideoPic wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

VideoPic wrote:

Because there are NO standard, anyone can slap an IBIS logo on a camera and claim its like an Olympus camera.........

In reality, no gets close to what Olympus and now Panasonic achieves......

Excuse me?

http://www.cipa.jp/image-stabilization/index_e.html

Huh......????

Let me try to explain.

You said there is no standard.

Mark provided a link to a standard.

I think that means that you were wrong and he was right.

Only if you look at it logically

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Jim Stirling
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” John Adams

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bobn2
bobn2 Forum Pro • Posts: 62,030
Re: Well my A7 II 5 axis IBIS is nowhere close to my EM1 MKII????

James Stirling wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

VideoPic wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

VideoPic wrote:

Because there are NO standard, anyone can slap an IBIS logo on a camera and claim its like an Olympus camera.........

In reality, no gets close to what Olympus and now Panasonic achieves......

Excuse me?

http://www.cipa.jp/image-stabilization/index_e.html

Huh......????

Let me try to explain.

You said there is no standard.

Mark provided a link to a standard.

I think that means that you were wrong and he was right.

Only if you look at it logically

Dammit, I'm always making that mistake.

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Ride easy, William.
Bob

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