for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower Locked

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Jefftan Veteran Member • Posts: 3,163
for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

https://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2019/03/15/fujifilm-qa-cpplus-2019-af-tidbits-lenses-100-mp

TI: Yes, yes. I think the customers should have different options. We don't believe that all of the customers will go to full-frame. At the moment, I think the proportion of full-frame is probably one-third of the market by value.

DE: Oh, by value actually. So in terms of unit sales, it would be much lower.

TI: Yes, so two-thirds of the market is non-full frame, which is predominantly APS-C, Micro Four Thirds, and some medium-format as well.

TI: We really just cannot believe that projection of Canon's.

DE: Yeah. What are your projections, what do you think the market will do overall?

TI: I think it all depends on what innovation and what influence comes from the manufacturers. It's our mission to make the market viable. So I think our projection is there's a lot of room even to grow further in the camera market.

DE: It might even grow? (!)

TI: Yeah, yeah, yeah. If we look at the Asian market, there's a huge population over there. Some countries may decline, but some countries soon will change to growth. I think overall, the global camera market, you know...

DE: ...is actually going to grow as well. Wow, that's interesting. Yeah, certainly I hear from everyone that China is a huge market, and it's got to be pretty low penetration for cameras there still, so there's a lot of opportunity there.

TI: Yes.

Mark Ransom
Mark Ransom Veteran Member • Posts: 5,745
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

Jefftan wrote:

https://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2019/03/15/fujifilm-qa-cpplus-2019-af-tidbits-lenses-100-mp

TI: Yes, yes. I think the customers should have different options. We don't believe that all of the customers will go to full-frame. At the moment, I think the proportion of full-frame is probably one-third of the market by value.

DE: Oh, by value actually. So in terms of unit sales, it would be much lower.

TI: Yes, so two-thirds of the market is non-full frame, which is predominantly APS-C, Micro Four Thirds, and some medium-format as well.

TI: We really just cannot believe that projection of Canon's.

DE: Yeah. What are your projections, what do you think the market will do overall?

TI: I think it all depends on what innovation and what influence comes from the manufacturers. It's our mission to make the market viable. So I think our projection is there's a lot of room even to grow further in the camera market.

DE: It might even grow? (!)

TI: Yeah, yeah, yeah. If we look at the Asian market, there's a huge population over there. Some countries may decline, but some countries soon will change to growth. I think overall, the global camera market, you know...

DE: ...is actually going to grow as well. Wow, that's interesting. Yeah, certainly I hear from everyone that China is a huge market, and it's got to be pretty low penetration for cameras there still, so there's a lot of opportunity there.

TI: Yes.

So do you think a camera designed to appeal to the Chinese will also appeal to the rest of us?

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Jeff Veteran Member • Posts: 5,819
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

Mark Ransom wrote:

Jefftan wrote:

https://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2019/03/15/fujifilm-qa-cpplus-2019-af-tidbits-lenses-100-mp

TI: Yes, yes. I think the customers should have different options. We don't believe that all of the customers will go to full-frame. At the moment, I think the proportion of full-frame is probably one-third of the market by value.

DE: Oh, by value actually. So in terms of unit sales, it would be much lower.

TI: Yes, so two-thirds of the market is non-full frame, which is predominantly APS-C, Micro Four Thirds, and some medium-format as well.

TI: We really just cannot believe that projection of Canon's.

DE: Yeah. What are your projections, what do you think the market will do overall?

TI: I think it all depends on what innovation and what influence comes from the manufacturers. It's our mission to make the market viable. So I think our projection is there's a lot of room even to grow further in the camera market.

DE: It might even grow? (!)

TI: Yeah, yeah, yeah. If we look at the Asian market, there's a huge population over there. Some countries may decline, but some countries soon will change to growth. I think overall, the global camera market, you know...

DE: ...is actually going to grow as well. Wow, that's interesting. Yeah, certainly I hear from everyone that China is a huge market, and it's got to be pretty low penetration for cameras there still, so there's a lot of opportunity there.

TI: Yes.

So do you think a camera designed to appeal to the Chinese will also appeal to the rest of us?

Isn't that the Yi mFT camera?  Btw, Yi wouldn't report sales data to CIPA, so hard to know exactly what may be going on in that market.

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Henry Richardson Forum Pro • Posts: 16,381
What will appeal to the Chinese?

Mark Ransom wrote:

So do you think a camera designed to appeal to the Chinese will also appeal to the rest of us?

What do you believe is a camera and system that will appeal particularly to the Chinese, but maybe not "to the rest of us"?  I suspect all the Chinese people do not think and want exactly the same things.  Just like all other people all around the world.

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Mark Ransom
Mark Ransom Veteran Member • Posts: 5,745
Re: What will appeal to the Chinese?

Henry Richardson wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

So do you think a camera designed to appeal to the Chinese will also appeal to the rest of us?

What do you believe is a camera and system that will appeal particularly to the Chinese, but maybe not "to the rest of us"? I suspect all the Chinese people do not think and want exactly the same things. Just like all other people all around the world.

It would be naive to assume that every market world-wide is identical. To give just one example, I assume that the average disposable income in China is less than the average for participants of this forum. So perhaps a device targeted to that market would sacrifice functionality for a lower price. But maybe that's a prejudice I have that is not justified, so my question is legitimate - how would a product designed to appeal to Chinese tastes fail to attract a more global market? I've already seen examples of products for the Japanese market that fail to catch on internationally.

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tomhongkong Veteran Member • Posts: 3,776
Re: What will appeal to the Chinese?

Mark Ransom wrote:

Henry Richardson wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

So do you think a camera designed to appeal to the Chinese will also appeal to the rest of us?

What do you believe is a camera and system that will appeal particularly to the Chinese, but maybe not "to the rest of us"? I suspect all the Chinese people do not think and want exactly the same things. Just like all other people all around the world.

It would be naive to assume that every market world-wide is identical. To give just one example, I assume that the average disposable income in China is less than the average for participants of this forum. So perhaps a device targeted to that market would sacrifice functionality for a lower price. But maybe that's a prejudice I have that is not justified, so my question is legitimate - how would a product designed to appeal to Chinese tastes fail to attract a more global market? I've already seen examples of products for the Japanese market that fail to catch on internationally.

I go to China pretty often from HK and see far more big white lenses at sailing events than I do in the West. I don't have the figures to back up my observation, but think that the average Chinese photographer that I see spends far more than the average spent by members here.

Perhaps you're right, they will not be bothered by the low cost consumer kit which most of us have to live with

tom

TN Args
TN Args Veteran Member • Posts: 8,355
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

Mark Ransom wrote:

So do you think a camera designed to appeal to the Chinese will also appeal to the rest of us?

Good grief. I'm out.

FWLIW this thread was not about who is making the camera of yours or my dreams.

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K1W1 55
K1W1 55 Contributing Member • Posts: 626
Re: What will appeal to the Chinese?

tomhongkong wrote:

examples of products for the Japanese market that fail to catch on internationally.

I go to China pretty often from HK and see far more big white lenses at sailing events than I do in the West. I don't have the figures to back up my observation, but think that the average Chinese photographer that I see spends far more than the average spent by members here.

Perhaps you're right, they will not be bothered by the low cost consumer kit which most of us have to live with

tom

So true Tom, they will not be "sold" by their friends and stores upon low cost and even lower quality two lens kits that are actually 1980's and 1990's film designs with a token  ED glass & a design polish and which are atrocious in IQ offered by certain camera manufacturers in the past but ooh they are pleased 'cause that's what the soccer mom next door uses & the store said "we sell lots of these"   I'm pointing at you big two.

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OP Jefftan Veteran Member • Posts: 3,163
Re: What will appeal to the Chinese?

tomhongkong wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

Henry Richardson wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

So do you think a camera designed to appeal to the Chinese will also appeal to the rest of us?

What do you believe is a camera and system that will appeal particularly to the Chinese, but maybe not "to the rest of us"? I suspect all the Chinese people do not think and want exactly the same things. Just like all other people all around the world.

It would be naive to assume that every market world-wide is identical. To give just one example, I assume that the average disposable income in China is less than the average for participants of this forum. So perhaps a device targeted to that market would sacrifice functionality for a lower price. But maybe that's a prejudice I have that is not justified, so my question is legitimate - how would a product designed to appeal to Chinese tastes fail to attract a more global market? I've already seen examples of products for the Japanese market that fail to catch on internationally.

I go to China pretty often from HK and see far more big white lenses at sailing events than I do in the West. I don't have the figures to back up my observation, but think that the average Chinese photographer that I see spends far more than the average spent by members here.

Perhaps you're right, they will not be bothered by the low cost consumer kit which most of us have to live with

tom

If one understand China.

those who are rich are extremely rich. Don't ask where money come from

even Leica no big deal

but why drill on this? my point is crop is the main camera market not FF

cba_melbourne Senior Member • Posts: 1,016
Re: What will appeal to the Chinese?

Mark Ransom wrote:

Henry Richardson wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

So do you think a camera designed to appeal to the Chinese will also appeal to the rest of us?

What do you believe is a camera and system that will appeal particularly to the Chinese, but maybe not "to the rest of us"? I suspect all the Chinese people do not think and want exactly the same things. Just like all other people all around the world.

It would be naive to assume that every market world-wide is identical. To give just one example, I assume that the average disposable income in China is less than the average for participants of this forum. So perhaps a device targeted to that market would sacrifice functionality for a lower price. But maybe that's a prejudice I have that is not justified, so my question is legitimate - how would a product designed to appeal to Chinese tastes fail to attract a more global market? I've already seen examples of products for the Japanese market that fail to catch on internationally.

Mark, that is exactly the attitude I remember in the 60's and early 70's with regards to the Japanese photographers. Gee, were we wrong. Back then, Japanese cameras were regarded... well probably less than the YI M1 today. Just a few years later, and many German makers just ceased to exist, or were reduced to niche players struggling to avoid bankruptcy. The average disposable purchase power in China is today, where it was in Europe back then. There are many photography enthusiasts in China, potentially more than in Europe and the USA combined. And they are prepared to work long long hours for their dream camera, just as we did back then. Personally I see no difference at all in what enthusiasts desire in a camera. Regardless of where they live or what culture or religion or what alphabet they use. Rest assured, there will be no rice bowl shaped cameras.

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Wildalaskaken
Wildalaskaken Contributing Member • Posts: 684
Re: What will appeal to the Chinese?

it needs to be big. super big.

Most Asian camera dudes like their stuff big. Big Cameras, big lenses, Nikon or Cannon. The camera strap should say the Name of the Camera Company too.

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bobn2
bobn2 Forum Pro • Posts: 62,044
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

Jefftan wrote:

https://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2019/03/15/fujifilm-qa-cpplus-2019-af-tidbits-lenses-100-mp

TI: Yes, yes. I think the customers should have different options. We don't believe that all of the customers will go to full-frame. At the moment, I think the proportion of full-frame is probably one-third of the market by value.

DE: Oh, by value actually. So in terms of unit sales, it would be much lower.

TI: Yes, so two-thirds of the market is non-full frame, which is predominantly APS-C, Micro Four Thirds, and some medium-format as well.

TI: We really just cannot believe that projection of Canon's.

DE: Yeah. What are your projections, what do you think the market will do overall?

TI: I think it all depends on what innovation and what influence comes from the manufacturers. It's our mission to make the market viable. So I think our projection is there's a lot of room even to grow further in the camera market.

DE: It might even grow? (!)

TI: Yeah, yeah, yeah. If we look at the Asian market, there's a huge population over there. Some countries may decline, but some countries soon will change to growth. I think overall, the global camera market, you know...

DE: ...is actually going to grow as well. Wow, that's interesting. Yeah, certainly I hear from everyone that China is a huge market, and it's got to be pretty low penetration for cameras there still, so there's a lot of opportunity there.

TI: Yes.

I'm not sure what this thread has to do with micro Four Thirds, or why it's on this forum, but here goes anyway.

The specialist photographic market is on the cusp of a major change. The market is declining. The compact cameras which formed the huge majority a few years ago have been wiped out. In another few years the market will look very different from what it does now. The bet that most camera manufacturers seem to be making is that there will still be profits in the market, but with higher value, lower volume products. So, that is where the action is. The question is, not what will dominate in today's market, but what will in this new market. Simplistically, it is the lower end that get wiped out first. It's probably unlikely that the size of that 30% will change much, but in a few years it could be closer to 70-90%. Which is also not to say that there is not still potential life in the remaining 30-10%.

In that context, you can understand the game Panasonic is playing.

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OP Jefftan Veteran Member • Posts: 3,163
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

bobn2 wrote:

Simplistically, it is the lower end that get wiped out first. It's probably unlikely that the size of that 30% will change much, but in a few years it could be closer to 70-90%. Which is also not to say that there is not still potential life in the remaining 30-10%.

In that context, you can understand the game Panasonic is playing.

i am not so sure u are correct

A6500/M100..etc  now sold a lot of units

wiped out by phone?

all use phone? even in holiday trip?

really?

NCV
NCV Veteran Member • Posts: 9,245
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

Jefftan wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

Simplistically, it is the lower end that get wiped out first. It's probably unlikely that the size of that 30% will change much, but in a few years it could be closer to 70-90%. Which is also not to say that there is not still potential life in the remaining 30-10%.

In that context, you can understand the game Panasonic is playing.

i am not so sure u are correct

A6500/M100..etc now sold a lot of units

wiped out by phone?

all use phone? even in holiday trip?

really?

I get to visit a lot of top Italian tourist locations, places like Firenze, Venezia and Mantova. Or the Dolomiti.

I see fewer and fewer people with a "proper camera", I see masses of pictures being taken with cell phones.

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richarddd
richarddd Veteran Member • Posts: 3,300
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

NCV wrote:

Jefftan wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

Simplistically, it is the lower end that get wiped out first. It's probably unlikely that the size of that 30% will change much, but in a few years it could be closer to 70-90%. Which is also not to say that there is not still potential life in the remaining 30-10%.

In that context, you can understand the game Panasonic is playing.

i am not so sure u are correct

A6500/M100..etc now sold a lot of units

wiped out by phone?

all use phone? even in holiday trip?

really?

I get to visit a lot of top Italian tourist locations, places like Firenze, Venezia and Mantova. Or the Dolomiti.

I see fewer and fewer people with a "proper camera", I see masses of pictures being taken with cell phones.

At top tourist locations, I'm seeing masses of pictures being taken with cell phones. It's not clear to me if there are significantly fewer people with "proper cameras" or just a smaller percentage due to the proliferation of cell phones.

I wonder if there are stats, for example, if anyone is tracking changes to flickr's camera finder which tracks numbers of users of various models https://www.flickr.com/cameras/canon/

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Mark Ransom
Mark Ransom Veteran Member • Posts: 5,745
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

TN Args wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

So do you think a camera designed to appeal to the Chinese will also appeal to the rest of us?

Good grief. I'm out.

FWLIW this thread was not about who is making the camera of yours or my dreams.

It was an honest question. I'm glad a couple of people took the trouble to answer it.

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golfhov Forum Pro • Posts: 10,498
BS?

odd things on these forums these days.......

Agree fully. The market is in a constant state of flux. The bottom of it seems to have largely turned into an area to recycle old technology while it seems manufacturers are all aiming for the top of the market.

Makes sense. we won't know in the short term how effective it is. We will know in a few years.

This also has little to do with sensor format. If anything 35/ff is less expensive than it ever was in digital. With a few aberrations like the RP. Which I think is just more of a reactionary measure than anything else

I guess for now we should just try to enjoy the good effects of competition instead of focusing on the potential negative effects

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CharlesB58 Veteran Member • Posts: 9,227
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

CIPA data and other figures point to overall FF sales being around 16% of all ILC sales by unit. I've been pointing this out by years in response to the "FF will rule" crowd.

People must understand that a lot of the chatter comes from "enthusiasts" who view FF as a badge of honor. Many of them really don't need FF (in fact some of them can't take photos that match the capability of FF). But owning FF is a way of showing others they are "serious photographers" (meaning they think they are better photographers than those who don't own FF).

That's not to say that all FF owners are this way. Many FF owners who post on this forum also own m4/3 and other formats. They rightly cite certain advantages of FF, but don't come across as though FF owners are inherently better photographers.

When you stir in the blogger/vlogger divas, whose main goal in many cases is to get hits (not give accurate information) then things get messier. I watch some youtube stars go on and on about FF, then do some research, and find out they are not the "experts" or have the level of success as pros that they want people to believe.

If a Pulitzer Prize winning photographer says he does fine with m4/3, and a guy who spends more time doing youtube videos than actually working photo jobs tells me I must use FF, who has more credibility?

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CharlesB58 Veteran Member • Posts: 9,227
Re: What will appeal to the Chinese?

tomhongkong wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

Henry Richardson wrote:

Mark Ransom wrote:

So do you think a camera designed to appeal to the Chinese will also appeal to the rest of us?

What do you believe is a camera and system that will appeal particularly to the Chinese, but maybe not "to the rest of us"? I suspect all the Chinese people do not think and want exactly the same things. Just like all other people all around the world.

It would be naive to assume that every market world-wide is identical. To give just one example, I assume that the average disposable income in China is less than the average for participants of this forum. So perhaps a device targeted to that market would sacrifice functionality for a lower price. But maybe that's a prejudice I have that is not justified, so my question is legitimate - how would a product designed to appeal to Chinese tastes fail to attract a more global market? I've already seen examples of products for the Japanese market that fail to catch on internationally.

I go to China pretty often from HK and see far more big white lenses at sailing events than I do in the West. I don't have the figures to back up my observation, but think that the average Chinese photographer that I see spends far more than the average spent by members here.

Perhaps you're right, they will not be bothered by the low cost consumer kit which most of us have to live with

tom

Methinks someone (other than yourself Tom) may have the image of China being filled with merchants and rice farmers who make less in a year than those from the US or EU make in a month? Certainly overall there are large numbers of people in China who make less than Westerners. However, China is also the most vigorous economy, and has been growing for years. I'd guess that in terms of total numbers, the Chinese whose disposable income that could be put toward expensive camera gear exceeds that of the USA and EU.

It's a curious situation, because making products for a specific country has to do more with cultural considerations than economic ones in many cases. At least as far as China is concerned.

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Jeff Veteran Member • Posts: 5,819
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

CharlesB58 wrote:

CIPA data and other figures point to overall FF sales being around 16% of all ILC sales by unit. I've been pointing this out by years in response to the "FF will rule" crowd.

People must understand that a lot of the chatter comes from "enthusiasts" who view FF as a badge of honor. Many of them really don't need FF (in fact some of them can't take photos that match the capability of FF). But owning FF is a way of showing others they are "serious photographers" (meaning they think they are better photographers than those who don't own FF).

That's not to say that all FF owners are this way. Many FF owners who post on this forum also own m4/3 and other formats. They rightly cite certain advantages of FF, but don't come across as though FF owners are inherently better photographers.

When you stir in the blogger/vlogger divas, whose main goal in many cases is to get hits (not give accurate information) then things get messier. I watch some youtube stars go on and on about FF, then do some research, and find out they are not the "experts" or have the level of success as pros that they want people to believe.

If a Pulitzer Prize winning photographer says he does fine with m4/3, and a guy who spends more time doing youtube videos than actually working photo jobs tells me I must use FF, who has more credibility?

Well said. I share your sentiment that a good share of the apparent enthusiasm for FF is misplaced.

The imperative in almost every other area of technology is smaller, faster, cheaper.  The idea that the market is going to value bigger and more expensive seems just seems wrong.  Sure, there are certain people with those needs, but is there room enough for every manufacturer headed in that direction?

Fuji's MF is the 'exception that proves the rule'.  What they're doing is radically lowering the cost of MF shooting while at the same avoiding cannibalization of their APS-C offering. Oly is standing pat on mFT.

The next few years should be interesting to see if they have the right strategy.

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