What's happening, Olympus? And the E-M5 III ?

I believe it is probably best for Olympus to have only 2 OM-D lines now. Move the E-M10 line up a little to give it more space and safety from the smartphones, and change it to something like a E-M7 line, selling the kit at $899 US. Then, move the E-M5 up to what is like a E-M3, selling at $1299 body, and taking more of what features already in the E-M1 II that are of more general interests (not the extreme speeds), plus any new worthwhile features. That means the E-M3 will become the top model, and put at a spot that is not threatened by the new cheap FFs, and allow enough room or profit for some (but no all the most) advanced features. Good enough is best or safest policy for the coming years as there will be big changes.

DLBlack wrote:

Once you experienced the speed and large buffer of the E-M1 Mkii you wouldn't want any less and hope for more.

I better not try it then. 

I think I know what your dream camera is.  By April or May 2019, it should be here - the A9 II.  

gary0319 wrote:

Again rumor, but I was told to expect a new Pro camera line to sit above the E-M1 series, pricing to match. Early 2019 announcement.

What would it be called, E-M0?  

and pricing to match?  $2500?

Nice one.  

gary0319 wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

Nachupi wrote:

Kiwisnap wrote:

Personally I think Olympus should be looking to release the EM-1 Mk3 and discontinuing some of their lower models.

They need to compete more with the Sony offering and with the forthcoming Canikon mirrorless systems as well as the G9. The Mk2 is a very good camera but some of the hardware is a bit dated now (eg EVF) and since perception is reality in marketing, it is starting to appear "old".

Olympus is doing the (only) right thing they can do given timings. New sensor with significant performance improvement (outperforming IQ level of A7III) will be ready in Q4. They delayed launching any flagship before this new sensor is ready. Instead they are focusing on building the best lens line-up in the market.

Q1 2019 they are launching their new flagship, above EM1 Mark II in every aspect and including new sensor . They expect to shake the FF market significantly, and the equivalence will favor M43 (in a situation where further sensor improvements in FF are already bringing diminishing improvements). It is going to be quite interesting for the market to see what happens with M43 top liners bringing IQ at a level of current top line FFs. Whether FF will suffer as MF did in the past or whether it will manage to keep the lead will be dependant on Markeing efforts; technology-wise there will be little arguments to hold on FF with the size/price/lens advantage that M43 formats will bring.

I heard the same “rumor”.

Together with the new sensor, there are another 3 relevant market players (2 in adjacent industries) that will enter M43 as well. More players in the M43 ecosystem means more developments of the format but is also needed to gain Marketing muscle and make it the mainstream format moving forward.

Sony A7 III pricing was in anticipation to these developments, making mirrorles FF the only “way-to-go” for 2018. At the same time, they are ready to fight back on the A6 line; but they lack such a lens lineup as M43 has and the open ecosystem.

Expect specs to start filtering 3 months from now. Interesting times ahead.

😳 [speechless]

Can you share something about your background or your source please?

Now, this is starting to sound serious, the rumour that you heard. Sure, I can wait 3 months. I have already stopped buying anything for 3 years, since the E-M5 II launch.

Sergey Borachev wrote:

Look at these first.

3 FT5 rumours (i.e. supposedly 99% accurate):

-There will be another f/1.2 PRO lens, with an FL of 12mm.

- They will be no new cameras this year.

- There will be a 100th anniversary camera. (Anniversary is in October 2019)

That’s another rumour which should be accurate – Canon and Nikon are getting their FF mirrorless out soon, probably a few months before Christmas. A price war is likely as these new mirrorless makers cannot compete in general on features, lens range or whatever, and will have to attract buyers with lower prices.

Following the "Simon" track record (100% accuracy in last 3 years about all rumors up to small details) the E-M1 III is the 100th Anniversary model with 24Mpix sensor etc.

Some facts and observations:

- Olympus made a profit the previous year, although we don’t actually know how much of that was due to structuring, staff cuts and other things done for cost saving.

Correction, Olympus Camera division made profit, the Olympus itself that is mainly a medical company makes always the profit. This is like looking Canon that main business is printers, papers and everything else than their cameras.

- There are already 3 such f/1.2 PRO lenses, and M43 has a nice range of lenses, but no prime lenses under 12mm. We don’t know how profitable these f/1.2 lenses are or will be. These 4 lenses all cost as much as the Olympus flagship can hope to sell at.

The profit from the system is sum of the capabilities of the system. No matter how great a one lens is and how cheap it is, you need to have the system.

- The E-M5 II is 3½ years old. It’s not competitive, not even when compared to the cheaper 16MP G85. Competitors’ cameras have these main advantages, on-sensor PDAF, more MPs, better ISO performance, superior video, and/or lower prices...

Not even comparable? I could bet you that doing photos with both would in blind test make you incapable to detect which one is which, as that can be done already with best of the best FF and APS C vs 4/3" and easily (with identical settings).

- There have been no new cameras from Olympus that are exciting since the 1½-year-old E-M1 II, which was put in its place by new camera releases that are similarly priced but offer significantly more. It's selling at significantly lower price than at launch for a flagship. The E-M10 and E-PL9 are both limited updates, and still use the 16MP sensors (c.f. 24MP on all competitors’ entry level cameras.

Mpix is just a marketing number these days, even when we get a 24Mpix it doesn't change things. We can already put a 16Mpix against 36Mpix FF cameras and come out with identical quality for large prints sizes.

- Fuji and Sony FF have both got more lenses in their line up now, and Fuji in particular are getting arthritis competitive in both lens price and quality. Sony lenses are expensive but that’s improving as Sigma and other independents make more lenses for Sony and some are very high quality and reasonably priced, though big.

Sigma is like a second hand dealer that has business ties to those who are willing to pay...

- Olympus is maintaining a lead in lenses, but not so much in the normal FL range now. It has already lost as a unique advantage, IBIS, over recent years. The occasionally useful feature called HiRes is already in Panasonic's G9.
So, is Olympus going to change strategy and rely less on selling fancy products at prices that are seen as to high for a small format system, now that the A7III is here followed soon by other cheap FF cameras? Or,.should it try to become like Leica and ignored others prices?j

It was known that eventually IBIS will find its way to many other manufacturers because it is the better technology than OIS. The Olympus HiRes was known to come to other manufacturers who have IBIS (again, you can't do this with OIS) as Hasselblad likely license it for many others etc.

I have always thought that the E-M5 should be its bread and butter line, and that should be given its full attention, ie to sell at a high volume if it can be given solid features in a compact body, and, a.sensible price.

E-M1 is the flagship. Top dog. Best of the best. For the fast action professionals.

E-M5 is the testing model, some of the new features, best casual shooter model.

E-M10 is the enthusiast and amateurs and semi-professionals.

The PEN line is where the money comes, then is the E-M10, and finally E-M5 and E-M1 are more of the niche area.

However this line was so neglected, don't you think? The E-M5 was a game changer. Can Olympus still make it great again. Maybe as the 100th anniversary camera? I think Olympus should try to do that since the E-M1 line has little future given the price squeeze from Sony and later from Canikon.

Sony still has nothing like a E-M1 II. Neither has Canon or Nikon. Only Panasonic has similar thing with their G9.

Canon and Nikon only benefits are their industry position, the mount and the services. Their existing of decades old lenses compatibility and now cheaper high quality SIgma and Tamron lenses, that more seems to move to Sony now. But when 70% of the people in the room doesn't even think others than Canon and 25% Nikon when they need to buy a camera, you can't compete with that no matter how good you are. It takes time to get the people recognize that there are others. No matter how good you are, if the others don't want because they have friends who recommend brand X, then you can't do anything about it.

Canon bread and butter in the camera business is not their FF, that was just while ago only about 10-15% of their camera sales. All the rest is APS-C models. The same thing was with NIkon. And Sony is selling even less than those and even Sony does money with their APS-C models.

Now again Canon has released a new Rebel model, with kit lens under $500 and that is just something that new person comes to a grocery store and sees it and buys it. No they see the 2013 models of the Canon APS-C in special sales for $300 and they simply walk to those special deals and they are happy.

The APS-C is the golden standard for everything, their cheaper 18mm-something is their key lenses. That is what the people use.

goodbokeh wrote:

I agree with you on the E-M1II being dated. And now Olympus won't have a full display booth at Photokina! I don't believe the cost excuses for that, this is a sign of distress and undermines confidence in the mark. Buzzards are starting to circle.

Photokina was important previously. It as bi-annual event so every second year it was where manufacturers gathered their products.

Now it is twice a year. Spring and Fall events. Now is the photokina last bigger one, and next spring there is a Photokina in smaller form.

Twice a year such event is just boring.

$749 Canadian = $576.00 U.S. here. Which other camera in its class is cheaper?

https://www.henrys.com/89296-OLYMPUS-OM-D-E-M5-MARK-II-BODY-SILVER.aspx

Sergey Borachev wrote:

gary0319 wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

Nachupi wrote:

Kiwisnap wrote:

Personally I think Olympus should be looking to release the EM-1 Mk3 and discontinuing some of their lower models.

They need to compete more with the Sony offering and with the forthcoming Canikon mirrorless systems as well as the G9. The Mk2 is a very good camera but some of the hardware is a bit dated now (eg EVF) and since perception is reality in marketing, it is starting to appear "old".

Olympus is doing the (only) right thing they can do given timings. New sensor with significant performance improvement (outperforming IQ level of A7III) will be ready in Q4. They delayed launching any flagship before this new sensor is ready. Instead they are focusing on building the best lens line-up in the market.

Q1 2019 they are launching their new flagship, above EM1 Mark II in every aspect and including new sensor . They expect to shake the FF market significantly, and the equivalence will favor M43 (in a situation where further sensor improvements in FF are already bringing diminishing improvements). It is going to be quite interesting for the market to see what happens with M43 top liners bringing IQ at a level of current top line FFs. Whether FF will suffer as MF did in the past or whether it will manage to keep the lead will be dependant on Markeing efforts; technology-wise there will be little arguments to hold on FF with the size/price/lens advantage that M43 formats will bring.

I heard the same “rumor”.

Together with the new sensor, there are another 3 relevant market players (2 in adjacent industries) that will enter M43 as well. More players in the M43 ecosystem means more developments of the format but is also needed to gain Marketing muscle and make it the mainstream format moving forward.

Sony A7 III pricing was in anticipation to these developments, making mirrorles FF the only “way-to-go” for 2018. At the same time, they are ready to fight back on the A6 line; but they lack such a lens lineup as M43 has and the open ecosystem.

Expect specs to start filtering 3 months from now. Interesting times ahead.

😳 [speechless]

Can you share something about your background or your source please?

Now, this is starting to sound serious, the rumour that you heard. Sure, I can wait 3 months. I have already stopped buying anything for 3 years, since the E-M5 II launch.

The problem I have with this rumour is that I speculated something similar (without IQ equal to current top line FF because, er...) without having any inside info whatsoever.

We know that unless Olympus and Panasonic want to effectively exit the market, they need to follow the times as 8k video sails up as the new recording standard on cell phones and up. Both Olympus and Panasonic have stated their intentions to do so, thus little reason to worry on that front. We also know that in order to offer native 8k video the sensor would have to be at least 7680x5760 or 44MP (probably a bit larger for a number of reasons), a large step up from current m43 sensors, and putting it squarely in the same territory as current FF offerings from Canon/Nikon/Sony.

The question then becomes time frames. If they want to introduce such a sensor in time for their market to react and get product out in volume before the Tokyo Olympics, that means the New Year 2019/2020 at the very, very latest. And if that is correct, then introducing interim models doesn't really make sense for just a year or so on the market, Panasonic/Olympus may well be better off dropping the prices on their current models as needed until they can release their new products with substantial upgrades in capabilities.

But this is all reasoning based on what is needed to stay reasonably competitive in the market. While Panasonic have shown a sensor that pretty much have the most of the basic capabilities we want (and more) there has been no indication yet that it is at a stage where it can go into mass production for incorporation in m43 cameras. Maybe it is or has been determined to be. If cameras using the sensor are introduced nine months from now, volume production can be a fair distance in the future. Or of course Sony could make one. And Towerjazz/GigaPixel offer technology that is already in the ballpark of what would be required.

Still, in the absence of actual announcements, rumours and reasoning are only worth what you paid for it.

Tommi K1 wrote:

goodbokeh wrote:

I agree with you on the E-M1II being dated. And now Olympus won't have a full display booth at Photokina! I don't believe the cost excuses for that, this is a sign of distress and undermines confidence in the mark. Buzzards are starting to circle.

Photokina was important previously. It as bi-annual event so every second year it was where manufacturers gathered their products.

Now it is twice a year. Spring and Fall events. Now is the photokina last bigger one, and next spring there is a Photokina in smaller form.

Twice a year such event is just boring.

Yes, I wonder what they are thinking really. There is no way the industry moves at a pace that justifies increasing the frequency of these events unless they shift their focus to 3D-sensing/LIDAR/Automotive.

Nachupi wrote:

Kiwisnap wrote:

Personally I think Olympus should be looking to release the EM-1 Mk3 and discontinuing some of their lower models.

They need to compete more with the Sony offering and with the forthcoming Canikon mirrorless systems as well as the G9. The Mk2 is a very good camera but some of the hardware is a bit dated now (eg EVF) and since perception is reality in marketing, it is starting to appear "old".

Olympus is doing the (only) right thing they can do given timings. New sensor with significant performance improvement (outperforming IQ level of A7III) will be ready in Q4. They delayed launching any flagship before this new sensor is ready. Instead they are focusing on building the best lens line-up in the market.

Q1 2019 they are launching their new flagship, above EM1 Mark II in every aspect and including new sensor . They expect to shake the FF market significantly,

That's right. They can't put out E-M5 III with a current 20Mpix sensor is it would be out of order in 6-9 months when Olympus releases E-M1 III in Q1 with 24Mpix sensor and then comes E-M10 IV with something similar (likely 20Mpix) and Olympus must keep E-M5 then as little smaller variant to the E-M1 III. So not to steal the 100th anniversary thunder and storm that E-M1 III will bring, they withhold E-M5 III.

and the equivalence will favor M43 (in a situation where further sensor improvements in FF are already bringing diminishing improvements). It is going to be quite interesting for the market to see what happens with M43 top liners bringing IQ at a level of current top line FFs.

Well, already a 16Mpix 4/3" sensors can play the same game as the best FF sensors (like D800, D5, 5D MkIV etc for almost all most common situations. So what will likely change is there is something very radical coming like global shutter and maybe 0.5-1EV improvement in noise, and such would really push the 4/3" again forward like 2012 when OM-D was released.

Whether FF will suffer as MF did in the past or whether it will manage to keep the lead will be dependant on Markeing efforts; technology-wise there will be little arguments to hold on FF with the size/price/lens advantage that M43 formats will bring.

Already it is not logical to buy to any FF format camera by the format itself, only by its system itself. Meaning the mounts and your lenses you get, the services and providers you have in the whole supply line etc. That is the reason you go for those systems these days.

Together with the new sensor, there are another 3 relevant market players (2 in adjacent industries) that will enter M43 as well. More players in the M43 ecosystem means more developments of the format but is also needed to gain Marketing muscle and make it the mainstream format moving forward.

I don't see m4/3 market to grow much in few years. Instead Sony got the thunder and stole the thunder with the "EVF" and all fancy features that its fans are ommitting as now being only available via Sony, regardless they have been like a decade from m4/3. That is what will threaten not just m4/3 but Nikon and Canon as well because Sony got very good marketing going and get them eat their cake.

Sony A7 III pricing was in anticipation to these developments, making mirrorles FF the only “way-to-go” for 2018. At the same time, they are ready to fight back on the A6 line; but they lack such a lens lineup as M43 has and the open ecosystem.

The Sony A7 III is still not the threat. It doesn't improve the quality over what 16Mpix m4/3 cameras with sub 700€ bodies can do in most situations for almost all required outputs. And that requires still to invest to heavy and large lenses and that gets expensive really quickly. For the A7 III body price alone one can example by a E-M10 II with couple zooms and few very nice primes and start working and get as good results.

Expect specs to start filtering 3 months from now. Interesting times ahead.

I expect that to happen early next year if the Q1 is going to be the release target for E-M1 III.

Helen wrote:

Peter Del wrote:

Thanks Helen for your explanation. It seems to me that Olympus should not, in future iterations of the E-M1, cater for old lenses for a system that is no longer manufactured. I suspect that the vast majority of their new customer base (that includes me) that are fresh to m43, but not coming from 43, do not and will not have any of the outdated lenses!

Just a thought.

Peter Del

Other manufacturers are also using PDAF in mirrorless cameras for the main advantage it offers - increased speed - and Olympus has it for that reason too.

But since it can also give increased speed with native Micro Four Thirds lenses, it's not a problem at all that it is included on the E-M1 II, and the camera still offers CDAF as well.

PDAF doesn't increase speed, it is actually slower than CDAF.

The CDAF is faster to focus as it doesn't need to measure anything but just start to move as fast as possible to one direction and once the contrast is detected to be strongest by going over it, lens focus motor can be quickly reversed to move back to strongest contrast, check it again and inform that shutter can be released. The CDAF allows to build a lens focus motors such that they are super fast to start moving and stop and in very great accuracy.

The PDAF in other hand increase the readout of contrast. Instead using lens focus motor to find out where the contrast is, the PDAF sensor reads the phase of the contrast (like circle of confusion) that how far the contrast is apart and then calculates the distance how much the lens focus motor needs to be turned to achieve strongest contrast. Then the lens motor is commanded to do the focus like "rotate 1451 steps" and once the lens achieves the count of steps it commands that shutter can be released.

This puts the both systems to two different categories.

CDAF is excellent in speed and accuracy as it doesn't need to wait anything but just get the contrast. It is superior in most situations, even in sports and wildlife as the subjects don't move so much or fast that they can't be focused with S-AF or that C-AF doesn't hold up.

PDAF is excellent in continuous focusing as it can measure the distance changes and keep moving focus motor predicting where contrast will be. PDAF will become superior when the subject distance starts to be erratic and unpredictable and continuous direct measurement is required. This is in situations like a wild horse that is jumping left and right at different distances or a butterfly that is flying as its distance changes between each shot closer and further instead linearly.

Okapi001 wrote:

I think these constantly reappearing doom&gloom posts regarding Olympus' future are really boring.

E-M1 II is here for a 1.5 year, and there still is nothing really better on the market (considering all its features). Pen F is older still, and is still the best looking camera around, with all the features and quality advanced photographer needs.

Panasonic G9, probably.

#Make Olympus Great Again.