Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

Started Aug 5, 2016 | Discussions
rrccad Forum Pro • Posts: 11,238
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

noirdesir wrote:

Philnw2 wrote:

2. Canon will introduce FF and APS mirrorless cameras at 2016 photokina based on their attitude and quotes at the 2014 photokina

Some might argue that Canon already has an APS-C mirrorless camera.

for all the wrong reasons, canon is quite happy apparently with it's APS-C mirrorless.

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UGPRO Contributing Member • Posts: 615
"They are in Dilemma. . . "
1

Actually they are in Dilemma now

They are worried about many factors, among them below are two simple ones:

  • If come up with a small/handy size body then a good glass mounted looks looks like an elephant riding on a rat. For this reason, if they comeup with a good heavy build body, then then primary law of mirrorless is voilated
  • If try to make the battery life better then its results in sacrificing many of the features as well as viewfinder quality has to be reduced.
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Siewwah Junior Member • Posts: 39
Re: "They are in Dilemma. . . "

I agree with your assessment but wouldn't call it a dilemma. I am almost certain that both Nikon and Canon have spent enough R&D and already have good enough designs to start manufacturing. What holds them back is simply the investment decision: Will there be sufficient return on the investment based on the projects sales? for now, I would think that they both find that it not profitable to start.

But they will if for some reason, the sales trend changes significantly.

My opinion is that DSLR offers are now good for most market segments, except for a small niche that Sony is trying to make successful. It's not obvious that Sony is going to be successful - financially I mean. By definition, a niche is a segment where there are few buyers and sellers....

By the way, I have DSLRs in FF and APSC, and mirrorless APSC and M43 - and l love their features so I keep most of them....there is no other way to enjoy the complete range of features....

I stop worrying about the camera manufacturer's problems and just enjoy photography!

Dlee13
Dlee13 Regular Member • Posts: 222
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?
1

According to Canon Rumors we'll be getting a Full Frame Mirrorless announcement this year. I've had fun using the Canon M3 so I wouldn't mind seeing what Canon could offer if they did make one.

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scarlet knight
OP scarlet knight Contributing Member • Posts: 589
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

What are your thoughts on M3?

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Dlee13
Dlee13 Regular Member • Posts: 222
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

scarlet knight wrote:

What are your thoughts on M3?

I personally got the M3 as something my girlfriend can use with her family and when we travel. The deciding factor for me was that I wanted something to use just with the kit lens and didn't want to invest in, if I did I would have probably tried the A6000.

The autofocus has always been fast and accurate, even when using the EF  point adapter. The IQ is great even with the kit lens. Being able to use peaking with the MF is a great addition which obviously could be easily added to live view on DSLR's so I guess that isn't too special.

Personally I wouldn't recommend buying one at this point. The 80D seems to have a better sensor with cleaner shadows from what I've seen of comparisons so once they release an M4 with a sensor like the 80D it will be a much better system.

Although I love my 6D and will probably use a DSLR as my main body for a long time, I would take a mirrorless over a crop DSLR if I had to start out again.

One thing people don't seem to get is Canon are very smart when it comes to their products. Each body has a clear distinction on what they are suited for and Canon don't mind holding back basic features to demonstrate that. Nikon is great imho for a consumer, you are overwhelmed with great Full Frame bodies and they continue to make great lenses to match them. Canon have their security cameras and that 100mp sensor they were making I'm sure could make them a lot of money for government contracts (think surveillance).

A Full Frame Mirrorless from Canon makes sense to me, just don't expect it to be feature packed. It will be appealing, but not so appealing that it will affect DSLR sales. Also with the way Nikon takes care of its customers with its large offerings, I'd be surprised if they didn't take a shot themselves.

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UGPRO Contributing Member • Posts: 615
Re: "They are in Dilemma. . . "

Siewwah wrote:

I agree with your assessment but wouldn't call it a dilemma. I am almost certain that both Nikon and Canon have spent enough R&D and already have good enough designs to start manufacturing. What holds them back is simply the investment decision: Will there be sufficient return on the investment based on the projects sales? for now, I would think that they both find that it not profitable to start.

But they will if for some reason, the sales trend changes significantly.

My opinion is that DSLR offers are now good for most market segments, except for a small niche that Sony is trying to make successful. It's not obvious that Sony is going to be successful - financially I mean. By definition, a niche is a segment where there are few buyers and sellers....

By the way, I have DSLRs in FF and APSC, and mirrorless APSC and M43 - and l love their features so I keep most of them....there is no other way to enjoy the complete range of features....

I stop worrying about the camera manufacturer's problems and just enjoy photography!

Sony's direct market experiment helped Canon/Nikon to stop at assessment itself. It has been 7 to 8 years since introduction of mirrorless in the consumer market. We still just hear rumours that nikon/canon filed designed patents, "Just Rumours", no official announcements. .

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scarlet knight
OP scarlet knight Contributing Member • Posts: 589
Re: "They are in Dilemma. . . "

I do enjoy the competition. I think that Sony and Fuji, and to a lesser extent, Olympus and Panasonic, are challenging Nikon and Canon with new developments.

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rrccad Forum Pro • Posts: 11,238
Re: "They are in Dilemma. . . "

UGPRO wrote:

Siewwah wrote:

I agree with your assessment but wouldn't call it a dilemma. I am almost certain that both Nikon and Canon have spent enough R&D and already have good enough designs to start manufacturing. What holds them back is simply the investment decision: Will there be sufficient return on the investment based on the projects sales? for now, I would think that they both find that it not profitable to start.

But they will if for some reason, the sales trend changes significantly.

My opinion is that DSLR offers are now good for most market segments, except for a small niche that Sony is trying to make successful. It's not obvious that Sony is going to be successful - financially I mean. By definition, a niche is a segment where there are few buyers and sellers....

By the way, I have DSLRs in FF and APSC, and mirrorless APSC and M43 - and l love their features so I keep most of them....there is no other way to enjoy the complete range of features....

I stop worrying about the camera manufacturer's problems and just enjoy photography!

Sony's direct market experiment helped Canon/Nikon to stop at assessment itself. It has been 7 to 8 years since introduction of mirrorless in the consumer market. We still just hear rumours that nikon/canon filed designed patents, "Just Rumours", no official announcements. .

the patent rumors were half baked.

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Camley Senior Member • Posts: 1,764
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?
3

Doug Pardee wrote:

For most purposes, DSLRs and mirrorless are interchangeable. Making a mirrorless would be pointless.

Mirrorless and DSLRs have different strengths and weaknesses. I use and enjoy both. A full frame mirrorless is just another option for the customer. So, if either Canon or Nikon want to test the FF mirrorless water, more power to them. To ignore this market may cost them dearly in the future.

For shooting action, especially bursts, DSLRs win. At least until we start seeing global shutters in sensors, anyway.

Agreed, a DSLR is the best choice for shooting fast action. I have a Canon 7D for that purpose. For everything else I use my a7RII using mostly Canon lenses.

For fast, reliable autofocus with the huge lens catalogues from Canon and Nikon, DSLRs win. Mirrorless will need its own line of lenses. Canon has produced only six dedicated lenses for its EOS M mirrorless, and they're designed for APS-C so not really useful on a full-frame mirrorless.

But if either Canon or Nikon provide a good adapter with a FF mirrorless then the majority of these lenses will work as they do on a DSLR with good but not fast-action quality AF.

For autofocus in dim light using near-IR focus assist lighting, DSLRs win.

DPR tests show that an a7RII focuses as fast or faster than a DSLR in very low light.

For inexpensive wide-angle, mirrorless wins. Provided, of course, that it uses a different lens mount with a much shorter flange distance (as all mirrorless lines to date do).

It doesn't make sense to make a mirrorless with a standard DSLR length flange distance.

For light weight and small size, mirrorless only wins with smaller sensor sizes. As soon as you say "full-frame," you're talking a large camera with a large lens.

That's true if minimum size is the only criteria. The top small sensor mirrorless cameras are not all that small or light. A FF Sony a7 is smaller and lighter than an Olympus EM-1. Fit a 35 f/2.8 on an a7 series camera and you have a very small and light outfit.

When you get to telephotos, the small sensor cameras win but an a7RII is a hybrid camera which can also use smaller APS-C lenses to produce images with 18MP resolution. The APS-C MP will increase as the MP of FF sensors increases. So you get the best of both worlds - great image quality and smaller than DSLR size with wide angle to short telephoto and the use of APS-C quality with telephoto lenses.

Canon or Nikon would need to create an all-new line of full-frame lenses, and would (arguably) need to develop in-body image stabilization if they really wanted to be competitive. They've both already got some nice wide-angle lenses.

Certainly a few new lenses plus a really good adapter would be required.

So... I have trouble imagining why someone would buy a full-frame mirrorless Canon (or Nikon) when they could buy a full-frame DSLR from the same company. The DSLR would cost less, do more, have a wider lens selection (including on the used market), and be about the same size and weight.

I would, if it provided better compatibility and acceptable performance with my Canon lenses. I would rather see Canon and Nikon add good FF mirrorless cameras than ignore this market.

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tonybelding Contributing Member • Posts: 807
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

I hope so.  It would be nice to have more options (beyond Sony) for FF mirrorless bodies to use my adapted Takumars on.  

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rrccad Forum Pro • Posts: 11,238
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

tonybelding wrote:

I hope so. It would be nice to have more options (beyond Sony) for FF mirrorless bodies to use my adapted Takumars on.

lol.

taks will work on the EF mount..

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Philnw2 Senior Member • Posts: 2,915
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

Dlee13 wrote:

scarlet knight wrote:

A Full Frame Mirrorless from Canon makes sense to me, just don't expect it to be feature packed. It will be appealing, but not so appealing that it will affect DSLR sales. Also with the way Nikon takes care of its customers with its large offerings, I'd be surprised if they didn't take a shot themselves.

I agree with you - Canon can't help themselves; and their willingness to hold back features on a hypothetical mirrorless will be a competitive advantage for Sony.  Sony's premium digital camera is the mirrorless line and there is no need to hold back to protect DSLRS - they have none lol.  Thats what handicapped the M3 and nikons V1.  Instead of letting the customers decide, they want to decide for those customers.

AFter being stagnant for so many years, the photography world appears to me to be changing rapidly.  And i don't think some of these old-line camera companies are up to the changes ahead.

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Dlee13
Dlee13 Regular Member • Posts: 222
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

Philnw2 wrote:

Dlee13 wrote:

scarlet knight wrote:

A Full Frame Mirrorless from Canon makes sense to me, just don't expect it to be feature packed. It will be appealing, but not so appealing that it will affect DSLR sales. Also with the way Nikon takes care of its customers with its large offerings, I'd be surprised if they didn't take a shot themselves.

I agree with you - Canon can't help themselves; and their willingness to hold back features on a hypothetical mirrorless will be a competitive advantage for Sony. Sony's premium digital camera is the mirrorless line and there is no need to hold back to protect DSLRS - they have none lol. Thats what handicapped the M3 and nikons V1. Instead of letting the customers decide, they want to decide for those customers.

AFter being stagnant for so many years, the photography world appears to me to be changing rapidly. And i don't think some of these old-line camera companies are up to the changes ahead.

They would probably give it a great sensor and AF, then limit everything else feature wise. It would probably still sell a great too for a simple reason, their EF lenses. I know would definitely get one if they release it.

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Osvaldo Cristo
Osvaldo Cristo Veteran Member • Posts: 4,347
Very well said, Doug!
1

Doug Pardee wrote:

rrccad wrote:

probably not .. why would they?

This. And I mean it as an honest question, not a snide remark. I recently converted from DSLR to mirrorless, but I wouldn't even consider full-frame mirrorless.

For most purposes, DSLRs and mirrorless are interchangeable. Making a mirrorless would be pointless.

For shooting action, especially bursts, DSLRs win. At least until we start seeing global shutters in sensors, anyway.

For fast, reliable autofocus with the huge lens catalogues from Canon and Nikon, DSLRs win. Mirrorless will need its own line of lenses. Canon has produced only six dedicated lenses for its EOS M mirrorless, and they're designed for APS-C so not really useful on a full-frame mirrorless.

For autofocus in dim light using near-IR focus assist lighting, DSLRs win.

For inexpensive wide-angle, mirrorless wins. Provided, of course, that it uses a different lens mount with a much shorter flange distance (as all mirrorless lines to date do).

For light weight and small size, mirrorless only wins with smaller sensor sizes. As soon as you say "full-frame," you're talking a large camera with a large lens.

Canon or Nikon would need to create an all-new line of full-frame lenses, and would (arguably) need to develop in-body image stabilization if they really wanted to be competitive. They've both already got some nice wide-angle lenses.

So... I have trouble imagining why someone would buy a full-frame mirrorless Canon (or Nikon) when they could buy a full-frame DSLR from the same company. The DSLR would cost less, do more, have a wider lens selection (including on the used market), and be about the same size and weight.

Added: to be clear, I'm not "down" on mirrorless -- I switched to mirrorless myself. But it wasn't because it was mirrorless, it's because the camera and system offered features (size, weight, and OOC JPEGs) that appealed to me; for my uses I don't care if there's a mirror or not. Also, I'm not saying that Canon and/or Nikon won't enter the mirrorless market (full-frame or otherwise) -- I'm just saying that I personally don't know what their motivations would be, but I'd be glad to be enlightened.

The bottom line I would add is both Canon and Nikon have know how and resources to release a FF mirror less system... they simply cannot see the money there. At last at this moment. I agree them.

Regards,

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PieterB
PieterB Senior Member • Posts: 1,204
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

The camera market is really down the drain.

At the end of 2015 the total camera market was less than 30% compared to 2010. The hardest losing segment was that of the compact camera, which is still the biggest segment. This image was upto 2015 but things are still changing in 2016.

Camera trends including part of 2016

If you study the pages on the link above, you will see that the camera market is still shrinking. The last few months, you can see that the average value of d-slrs's is on the rise, probable because of the introduction of some high-end d-slr's (Canon and Nikon).

The average value of mirrorless is shrinking probably because there hasn't been any highly priced mirrorless in the past 6 months (I think the Sony a6200's sales figures aren't in the sheets yet, they stop in June)

There is also the problem of the destroyed Sony production plant which was out of production for several months.

This is the conclusion of the page: (see link above)

In view of last months report, the overall figures have deteriorated. However, we have seen improved shipments for DSLRs and Mirrorless cameras over the previous month. Production figure for July indicate a continuing improvement in shipments but still at well below the numbers for last year.

Once production issues are resolved and any back-log is sorted then we will see what appetite the world has for digital cameras and where the market is headed.

Production for July is set to be at 100% of current month but with compact cameras down another 13% on this month.

Production of new high end DSLRs have put the average unit cost back above the Mirrorless camera. Mirrorless camera production has suffered more than DSLRs and that is set to continue. Both types are shipping at way less than last years figures.

Given the production issues it is very difficult to tell just which type is doing better. Shipments of DSLRs now stand at 3.3 per Mirrorless camera, up from 2.7 last month.

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Philnw2 Senior Member • Posts: 2,915
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

Dlee13 wrote:

Philnw2 wrote:

Dlee13 wrote:

scarlet knight wrote:

A Full Frame Mirrorless from Canon makes sense to me, just don't expect it to be feature packed. It will be appealing, but not so appealing that it will affect DSLR sales. Also with the way Nikon takes care of its customers with its large offerings, I'd be surprised if they didn't take a shot themselves.

I agree with you - Canon can't help themselves; and their willingness to hold back features on a hypothetical mirrorless will be a competitive advantage for Sony. Sony's premium digital camera is the mirrorless line and there is no need to hold back to protect DSLRS - they have none lol. Thats what handicapped the M3 and nikons V1. Instead of letting the customers decide, they want to decide for those customers.

AFter being stagnant for so many years, the photography world appears to me to be changing rapidly. And i don't think some of these old-line camera companies are up to the changes ahead.

They would probably give it a great sensor and AF, then limit everything else feature wise. It would probably still sell a great too for a simple reason, their EF lenses. I know would definitely get one if they release it.

Yep, I think Canon with a mirrorless would make a fearsome camera.  They would need a new mount and if they provided a smart adapter, folks could make use of their great cadre of lenses.  They wouldn't even need all of the features of a Sony to make it a commercial success.  I've always liked Canon's menu system.

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Philnw2 Senior Member • Posts: 2,915
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

tonybelding wrote:

I hope so. It would be nice to have more options (beyond Sony) for FF mirrorless bodies to use my adapted Takumars on.

Love Sony or hate them, one has to give them credit for leading the way.  I remember when i first saw a "Nex" camera, thinking that it was one ugly thing.  Then i bought one and remember thinking how filmsy it was made - but 5 years later it still works great.  But you're right, Sony needs competition just like any other company.

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Jamesbond6668
Jamesbond6668 Regular Member • Posts: 136
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

Something that I've just discovered is that some lenses do not produce the high resolution output needed for high MP cameras. I was wondering why new native Sony glass always looked sharper than my best Nikon glass with an adapter.  This could be the case. I'm convinced to go all Sony lenses for the AF and to take full advantage of all the AF features in the A7R2. But now also because these new lenses are taking full advantage of the high MP range.

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PK24X36NOW Senior Member • Posts: 1,945
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?
1

Doug Pardee wrote:

rrccad wrote:

probably not .. why would they?

This. And I mean it as an honest question, not a snide remark. I recently converted from DSLR to mirrorless, but I wouldn't even consider full-frame mirrorless.

For most purposes, DSLRs and mirrorless are interchangeable. Making a mirrorless would be pointless.

For shooting action, especially bursts, DSLRs win. At least until we start seeing global shutters in sensors, anyway.

For fast, reliable autofocus with the huge lens catalogues from Canon and Nikon, DSLRs win. Mirrorless will need its own line of lenses. Canon has produced only six dedicated lenses for its EOS M mirrorless, and they're designed for APS-C so not really useful on a full-frame mirrorless.

For autofocus in dim light using near-IR focus assist lighting, DSLRs win.

For inexpensive wide-angle, mirrorless wins. Provided, of course, that it uses a different lens mount with a much shorter flange distance (as all mirrorless lines to date do).

For light weight and small size, mirrorless only wins with smaller sensor sizes. As soon as you say "full-frame," you're talking a large camera with a large lens.

Canon or Nikon would need to create an all-new line of full-frame lenses, and would (arguably) need to develop in-body image stabilization if they really wanted to be competitive. They've both already got some nice wide-angle lenses.

So... I have trouble imagining why someone would buy a full-frame mirrorless Canon (or Nikon) when they could buy a full-frame DSLR from the same company. The DSLR would cost less, do more, have a wider lens selection (including on the used market), and be about the same size and weight.

Added: to be clear, I'm not "down" on mirrorless -- I switched to mirrorless myself. But it wasn't because it was mirrorless, it's because the camera and system offered features (size, weight, and OOC JPEGs) that appealed to me; for my uses I don't care if there's a mirror or not. Also, I'm not saying that Canon and/or Nikon won't enter the mirrorless market (full-frame or otherwise) -- I'm just saying that I personally don't know what their motivations would be, but I'd be glad to be enlightened.

I'd also add that it's hard to imagine that those interested in FF MILCs haven't already purchased a Sony A7whatever by now.

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