2015 BCN .. what will happen..

and just an FYI . as of this week:

1 EOS-M2
2 E-PL6
3 E-PL6
4 Nikon 1
5 A6000
6 A6000
7 EOS-M3
8 E-PL7
9 GF-7
10 E-M10II

for the month of November:

1 E-PL6
2 EOS-M3
3 GF-7
4 E-PL7
5 EOS-M2
6 J5
7 A6000
8 EOS-M3
9 GF-7
10 E-OM10

Here in Oz, & I've noticed from the interwebz another country or 2, Panasonic have finally joined in the discounting and bonus promotions. And it worked, if forum talk is anything to go by. Lots of actual buyers (including me) rather than talkers. There were some sensational deals happening. Will be interesting to see if this shows up in the charts

speedync wrote:

Here in Oz, & I've noticed from the interwebz another country or 2, Panasonic have finally joined in the discounting and bonus promotions. And it worked, if forum talk is anything to go by. Lots of actual buyers (including me) rather than talkers. There were some sensational deals happening. Will be interesting to see if this shows up in the charts

well BCN just charts Japan domestic sales data from retail and mail order stores.

so probably not really unless they are doing it as well in Japan.

It seems the GF series is well received though.

rrccad wrote: Olympus is the runaway leader this year - they hardly ever gave up anything in the #1 position, except occasionally to EOS-M.

For December, an M2 was the #1 mirrorless, #8 in ILC.

http://bcnranking.jp/category/subcategory_0008_month.html

justmeMN wrote:

rrccad wrote: Olympus is the runaway leader this year - they hardly ever gave up anything in the #1 position, except occasionally to EOS-M.

For December, an M2 was the #1 mirrorless, #8 in ILC.

http://bcnranking.jp/category/subcategory_0008_month.html

nice.

at various times this year, the M or the M2 was #1, however for the majority of the year, Olympus owned the top 2-3 positions between the OMD E-M10 and E-M10II and the E-PL6 various kits.

Last year it was Sony - as #1 - however was dumping NEX-5T and NEX-5 kits. once they stopped then trend last year was Olympus making great gains.

even in 2014, you can see the trending happening. Sony was losing ground and Olympus was gaining.

Amusingly lost in this was that Canon was gaining at the same rate as Olympus.

So I think it's going to be interesting this year. Not really from a rah rah frothing fanboy perspective, but just to see the forums meltdown over what looks to be a pretty dynamic shift in mirrorless economics in Japan.

Last year Panasonic just barely managed to hold onto #3 position over Canon by .51%

The only real seller it seems for Panasonic this year in Japan has been the GF series, however it certainly hasn't reached either Canon or Olympus volume levels.

I simply cannot see Canon not in the top 3. the question is, did they sell enough with Sony trending down to make it to #2?

now that would be a fun to watch in the forums. I guess we'll find out in a week or so - as last year the awards were given out on the 9th.

My prediction:

Olympus 27%
Sony 22%
Canon 18%

anyone that thinks that canon doesn't know what they are doing, or they aren't "competing" according to forum (and dpreview reviewer ) experts

really hasn't been watching BCN and sales this past year. Canon literally has been crushing the competition.

a good example was december as canon holds 7 out of the top 10 ILC positions according to BCN.

it just could every well be that Canon knows the industry better.  but what I do know?

tedolf wrote:

I think what the graph shows is that as more and more serious photographers consider mirrorless to be a viable option, lens catalog strength (Canon's forte in the DLSR world) is winning the day. Oly and Panny have 38% of the market, and Sony's share of the APS-c mirrorless market is shrinking fast (cannibalized by the A7, et al.)

For the first time, m4/3 has a triumvirate of cheap ($99.00 or less) lenses that are actually usable with decent IQ. A short zoom, a long zoom and a fast prime:

Panasonic 25mm, f/1.7, M.Zuiko 40-150mm, M.Zuiko 14-42.5mm

These three lenses can be had for less than $300.00 collectively, and with a $400.00 m4/3 body make a credible amateur kit. Nobody else can do that right now in the mirrorless world.

Canon will hang in there if just for image sake. Pannasonic has the potential for a runaway sucess with a GM-5 successor if they just put a decent EVF on it, in body stabilization and a real shutter, like a minature GX-7.

We shall see.

Tedolph

For the first time in my life, I think I actually agree with something you wrote. I personally picked up up a GX8, second hand but unused 14 2.5, new 20 & 25 1.7 for $1260 AU. That is exceptional bang for buck, however you want to look at it, & whatever you want to compare it to. Cost & IQ wise. Add a longer zoom for not much more, & set.

tedolf wrote:

I think what the graph shows is that as more and more serious photographers consider mirrorless to be a viable option, lens catalog strength (Canon's forte in the DLSR world) is winning the day. Oly and Panny have 38% of the market, and Sony's share of the APS-c mirrorless market is shrinking fast (cannibalized by the A7, et al.)

IMO .. perhaps not.

Olympus has been selling all year at 60-65% of for E-PL6 kits and around 55-60% off OM D-E10/II kits.

Usually the top 10 in amazon has no less than 8 units for 50% or more off at any one particular time. Some of this I think is also exporters - where they can purchase cheap bundles, break it down and sell for a profit.

However - Japan seems to be price centric - which is why year prior Sony had the large bumps in sales - they were selling off old NEX units. the A6000, while a very nice camera, simply hasn't made that kind of inroad into japan sales. A7 series? non-existent.

Personally I think it's more a sign that Japan consumers are being very price and brand conscious lately versus a serious photographer trend.

NA and Europe of course are entirely different beasts.

one thing I will mention is that m43's is certainly increasing it's mount marketshare in the MILC segment more than sony, canon,et all - as multiple vendors are contributing to the mount marketshare.

btw, you chose "does canon even make a mirrorless" didn't you?

tedolf wrote:

rrccad wrote:

tedolf wrote:

I think what the graph shows is that as more and more serious photographers consider mirrorless to be a viable option, lens catalog strength (Canon's forte in the DLSR world) is winning the day. Oly and Panny have 38% of the market, and Sony's share of the APS-c mirrorless market is shrinking fast (cannibalized by the A7, et al.)

IMO .. perhaps not.

Olympus has been selling all year at 60-65% of for E-PL6 kits and around 55-60% off OM D-E10/II kits.

Usually the top 10 in amazon has no less than 8 units for 50% or more off at any one particular time. Some of this I think is also exporters - where they can purchase cheap bundles, break it down and sell for a profit.

However - Japan seems to be price centric - which is why year prior Sony had the large bumps in sales - they were selling off old NEX units. the A6000, while a very nice camera, simply hasn't made that kind of inroad into japan sales. A7 series? non-existent.

Personally I think it's more a sign that Japan consumers are being very price and brand conscious lately versus a serious photographer trend.

NA and Europe of course are entirely different beasts.

one thing I will mention is that m43's is certainly increasing it's mount marketshare in the MILC segment more than sony, canon,et all - as multiple vendors are contributing to the mount marketshare.

btw, you chose "does canon even make a mirrorless" didn't you?

OMG.....

how did you know!

TEdolph

I wrote it with you in mind

Well they are late.

by years gone past, BCN releases their awards on the Friday after the first workweek. In other words, it should have been yesterday.

I suspect we'll see this monday or tuesday Japan time.

Should be interesting to see!

well the BCN awards are out.

here's the press announcement.

Since I cant seem to translate the images; all I get out of this is that Olympus was indeed #1 on mirrorless.

Anyone that can translate the rest.. well, thanks in advance

http://www.bcn.co.jp/press/press.html?no=311

from what I gather the official awards are released on Jan 29th.

rrccad wrote:

well the BCN awards are out.

here's the press announcement.

Since I cant seem to translate the images; all I get out of this is that Olympus was indeed #1 on mirrorless.

Anyone that can translate the rest.. well, thanks in advance

http://www.bcn.co.jp/press/press.html?no=311

from what I gather the official awards are released on Jan 29th.

Formatting got a little funky, but try this...

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bcn.co.jp%2Fsys_imgs%2Fco_press%2Fpdf%2F2016011512022069467.pdf&edit-text=&act=url

I just checked out the current BCN Rankings, and there is finally a Canon M10 there, at #65.

I thought the Canon M10 was designed to take on the highly popular Olympus Pen Lite in Japan, but that didn't happen. In Japan, the M10 remains the least popular M.

justmeMN wrote:

I just checked out the current BCN Rankings, and there is finally a Canon M10 there, at #65.

I thought the Canon M10 was designed to take on the highly popular Olympus Pen Lite in Japan, but that didn't happen. In Japan, the M10 remains the least popular M.

I would expect that to stay near the same until the M2 drops from production.

the same trend really occurred with M -> M2.

the M10 isn't that heavily discounted as compared to the M2.

I wouldn't expect the M10 to start selling well, until canon significantly drops the price in Japan. which I do expect them to do when the M3x is released and the M2 drops from shipping.