Will Canon make a profit (globally) on the M10?

rrccad wrote:

Kharan wrote:

Strannik2011 wrote:

[...] WIth such advanced cameras on cellphones and so many cheaper offerings in "travel compact zoom and superzoom" categories, I just don't understand why would someone spend that much money on such an ICL cam with selfies/basic travel photography in mind. I know this market exists, but I just admit that I don't understand the reasoning behind it. So going back to the original post, I don't think this cam will be popular at MSRP regardless of the market. Canon will likely still make money on it though. Not due to popularity or reasonable price, but simply due to low production cost.

That market actually doesn't exist, and yet the Japanese keep on pushing it. People who want a better camera for selfies get a GoPro, not some boxy underperforming POS camera. Olympus tried with the E-PL7 and failed (some speculate that it's the end for the PEN as we know it). Sony tried with the A5100 and failed (the A6000 has been sold in much, much larger numbers, at least in Amazon). Canon? If experience is any guide... lemmings will be lemmings (even if the story's apocryphal).

and the USA market for mirrorless is what exactly? it's all failed in NA.

and in reality .. who cares if it fails in one market that really is such a small niche for MILC's.

Agreed.

I live in Japan and mirrorless is everywhere. Most people here just want better than smartphone photography but the same ease of use. I have yet to see one Go Pro camera out and about here. Different markets. I have not been in the states for a number of years but based on what I have read most people there are quite satisfied with their smartphones as a main camera.

Peter63 wrote:

I think most of us can agree that the M10 is not going to be our next camera. I am curious how many of the DPR crowd believe (or are willing to admit they believe) that the M10 is likely to turn a profit for Canon.

My gosh. Who cares?

rrccad wrote:

Kharan wrote:

Strannik2011 wrote:

[...] WIth such advanced cameras on cellphones and so many cheaper offerings in "travel compact zoom and superzoom" categories, I just don't understand why would someone spend that much money on such an ICL cam with selfies/basic travel photography in mind. I know this market exists, but I just admit that I don't understand the reasoning behind it. So going back to the original post, I don't think this cam will be popular at MSRP regardless of the market. Canon will likely still make money on it though. Not due to popularity or reasonable price, but simply due to low production cost.

That market actually doesn't exist, and yet the Japanese keep on pushing it. People who want a better camera for selfies get a GoPro, not some boxy underperforming POS camera. Olympus tried with the E-PL7 and failed (some speculate that it's the end for the PEN as we know it). Sony tried with the A5100 and failed (the A6000 has been sold in much, much larger numbers, at least in Amazon). Canon? If experience is any guide... lemmings will be lemmings (even if the story's apocryphal).

and the USA market for mirrorless is what exactly? it's all failed in NA.

and in reality .. who cares if it fails in one market that really is such a small niche for MILC's.

Wrong on both accounts. According to CIPA, mirrorless shipments to the Americas is over 300,000 units between January and August, versus 1,600,000 DSLRs. In Japan, the spread is 440,000 mirrorless versus 660,000 DSLRs. The rest of the world is in between those extremes. Still, ~20% of the overall ILC market in the Americas is nothing to sneeze at.

It might sell well in Japan, if they discount it like they did with the M2. However, Canon's efforts have not been very successful in other parts of Asia, where Sony and Olympus dominate. In the US, they're practically inexistent.

fwampler wrote:

Peter63 wrote:

I think most of us can agree that the M10 is not going to be our next camera. I am curious how many of the DPR crowd believe (or are willing to admit they believe) that the M10 is likely to turn a profit for Canon.

My gosh. Who cares?

Best answer so far

I started this thread because there are a few loud and persistent posters claiming that the M10 is doomed. I was curious how representative they were of the general DPR crowd.

I also thought the thread might help to point out that if the M10 is a commercial success (as I believe it will be), then it was a smart move by Canon. Despite the text of my original post, I may end up with one when the price comes down.

-- hide signature --

Fred

I enjoy my M3.

rrccad wrote:

Kharan wrote:

Wrong on both accounts.

actually no.

300,000 units as compared to 1.6 million when 1.6 million is basically TWO vendors, and 300,000 is around TEN vendors.

You do that math and get back to me sometime.

I'd also like to know what common core math you took that made 1.6 million and 300,000 approximately 20% of the market.

but in my world, that's 16% of the market - again with somewhere between 8 to 10 vendors vying for it, versus 84% of the market with simply two (since pentax is basically a non-entity and so is sony SLT's), however you can argue for four there if you wish.

so as far as the M10 in USA? I doubt really that canon cares much about it either way. it's meant for entry level, and catering to females.

just because the market doesn't exist in the united states, does not mean it's not a valid market anywhere else.

also - for the longest period of the time - the top MILC seller in NA was the NEX-5T. Also the top sellers in Japan all are small cameras predominantly.

A7 series doesn't even make it on the radar in Japan - the largest and also the quickest growing MILC segment.

It's 18,75%. If you're going to be anal about it, do it right. Japan's reaching saturation in MILCs fast now, and what sells is basically whatever's discounted the most. That's not a healthy market, period. Which reminds me of Nikon sales in the US, which are mostly composed of models two or three generations before that leave a miserable margin.

Also, Sony has more than half of the mirrorless share, which isn't an insignificant number, especially when you add all such sales worldwide.

I couldn't care less for the M10 either way. It's not going to make or break Canon, but it keeps feeding the broken Japanese domestic sales model, and won't make a dent in the rest of the world. It's basically a completely superfluous and unnecessary camera, much like the Sony A5100 is right now. Speaking of which, the NEX-5T was a predecessor to that model, and I think it speaks volumes that the enthusiast-oriented camera is now the best seller, in terms of how the market is maturing.

MikeJ9116 wrote:

Kharan wrote:

It's 18,75%. If you're going to be anal about it, do it right. Japan's reaching saturation in MILCs fast now, and what sells is basically whatever's discounted the most.

...and this might be why Canon has released the M10. It is a camera that has such low cost for them that it can slug it out with the other MILC manufacturers on a cost basis. While these other brands are fighting with more advanced and expensive tech, Canon is coming in with a capable camera that can be priced at the bottom of the barrel. Plus, it has the Canon name on it that will attract some buyers just for that reason alone. Canon might see an opportunity to hammer the profits of Pentax, Olympus and even Sony in the low end MILC market after they have been pounding on each other for the past several years. If the Asian market is as price sensitive as claimed then they likely won't care about the specs between the low end models as much as the price. This might be where Canon can swoop in and grab enough of the market to put a serious financial hurt on Pentax and especially Olympus.

Bringing the M10 to market might be a very smart move by Canon to take one or two players out of the low end MILC market. In a war of attrition, Canon is probably better positioned financially than Olympus and Pentax to slug it out over the next several years.

It's exactly my point. They just want to increase their market share in Japan, the rest be damned. To crush the profits of the other brands might be the goal, but I don't think so - it's just that MILCs have almost reached parity with DSLRs in Japan, plus the fact that Pentax actually does sell an important number of DSLRs over there, so they (Canon) are feeling the heat back home.

rrccad wrote:

Kharan wrote:

It's basically a completely superfluous

much like sony's complete lineup if you are so focused on NA.

sony states that they have a little over 50% of the NA marketshare on mirrorless which means they only shipped around 160,000 cameras to NA so far this year.

that's versus what .. 750,000 to 900,000 canon cameras?

With a much higher profit margin per unit, apparently, in Sony's case. Mirrorless is much cheaper to build.

and unnecessary camera, much like the Sony A5100 is right now. Speaking of which, the NEX-5T was a predecessor to that model, and I think it speaks volumes that the enthusiast-orientedcamera is now the best seller

actually it's because sony removed the mass discount they had on the NEX-5T and it's back to list

so no, it speaks volumes more about sony's pricing.

Wrong. The A5000 is still available for 200 dollars less. That's not an insignificant difference, and yet the better model keeps outselling it month after month. On the other hand, Canon's best is the T5, which is a really lame camera for a rock-bottom price. It's also interesting that, at least on Amazon, the A6000 sits above all Nikon and Canon models except the T5 and D3300, one of which is a POS (the Nikon has some solid advantages, I'll give it that).

More telling, of course, is that GoPro and Fujifilm kick all the other manufacturers' collective asses in the sales rankings.

, in terms of how the market is maturing.

Not really - see above.

A best seller in a niche market with only 16% overall marketshare.. if that's your idea of success than have at it. good luck with that. of which sony only has somewhere around > 50% of. so a 8% to 10% overall markshare. lol. fun fact, they actually had at one time around a 15% overall marketshare. they haven't even gotten back up to that. but yes, carry on with mirrorless!

the thing is, unlike most other camera companies (outside of nikon and fuji - because for fuji it's a hobby), canon can afford to position a camera in a segment it feels like and profits be damned, whereas the others do not have the luxury.

of course, you like sony economics were they are actually losing mount marketshare, but increasing "virtual" profits.

I would love to know how you think that's a winning proposition.

The difference is that Sony now drives a profit from camera sales, something that eluded them for the longest time when they were #3 in DSLRs. I'm sure that, if you ask the board of the company, they're much happier with the current turn of events.

Also, Pentax is much more of a hobby for Ricoh. Panasonic seems to be only camera maker that has avoided the pitfall of fire sale pricing and ancient models leading sales at the moment. Sony and Olympus are finally in the green again. Nikon gained some more market share despite everything, some from Pentax and some from Canon. Let it be known that Nikon is the only camera maker right now that can't afford to disregard profits, as the imaging division is their main source of income.

rrccad wrote:

Kharan wrote:

and unnecessary camera, much like the Sony A5100 is right now. Speaking of which, the NEX-5T was a predecessor to that model, and I think it speaks volumes that the enthusiast-orientedcamera is now the best seller

actually it's because sony removed the mass discount they had on the NEX-5T and it's back to list

so no, it speaks volumes more about sony's pricing.

Wrong. The A5000 is still available for 200 dollars less.

try reading.

I thought you could figure the implied subtext yourself. But I can spell it out for you: the NEX-5T is a much older model and finally out of the pipeline. Its replacement, however, is still actively sold, and for a much lower price, and yet does not fly off the shelves. What could possibly explain such a mysterious phenomenon?