Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

Started Nov 10, 2013 | Discussions
linux99 Senior Member • Posts: 1,112
Would shoot P&S a lot more if AF were DSLR like speeds..

I love my P&S cameras. I have a lovely little XZ-1 (mostly appropriated by my roomate) and a s100. Both GREAT cameras.

I'd use for a lot more of my shooting if the AF were at DSLR quality. I really think that this is the major thing holding them back. You cant shoot kids or dogs or pretty much any fast moving social picture - everything has to be a bit posed.

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Peter63 Senior Member • Posts: 1,414
Re: Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

I am with the group that thinks this is a non issue. It sounds like you are saying that due to improvements in technology, that the masses will be content with crappy pictures. I think it has gone and will continue to go the opposite way. I have the EOS M with the 22 prime and the SL1 with the 40 prime, both can be worn on a hip and give IQ that is as good or better than most 15 year old cameras. Many will start with a cell camera and the discover that for little extra money and size that they can take high quality photos. Prices will continue to fall and the (mid range)market will continue to grow. Mid range products will likely provide better IQ than today's pro level gear. I don't care if the lens is built into my contact lens and I have to blink my left eye twice to trip the shutter and then pull my ear to send it to all of my friends. If the IQ is there, I will be happy with it.

Look at car tech, improvements in efficiency don't go into higher mpg for the most part. Cars may be smaller than they were but they are faster, handle better, are safer, are filled with gadgets, and cost less based on inflation than ever before. You see ads for stripped models in the paper but most people drive off the lot with a loaded luxury car compared to what they owned 10 years ago. As the tech develops, the market will grow to expect higher and higher quality alongside the reduction in size. I don't know anyone who will be unhappy with that.

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Aberaeron Senior Member • Posts: 5,949
Re: I'll make my own prediction

SomebodyFamous wrote:

Aberaeron wrote:

With even the paparazzi professionals being replaced by reporters with iPhones, I don't really think that the expensive 'professional' DSLR has much of a future. If the volume of high end product drops significantly, the remaining products in that sector will have to rise in price. There is no room for a rise in price because the cat is out of the bag and people know that less expensive cameras will do the same job. And so do the professionals know this also, and they will have to become more efficient and have lower costs in future, not higher costs, if they are to derive a meaningful income from still images. In fact the demand is already there for combined still and video shooters. If neither the camera manufacturers nor the photographers get in the groove on this, there are plenty of others to take their place. Low cost, efficient workflow, innovative products and services, that is what the market will increasingly demand of both professional photogs and equipment manufacturers. Nobody can afford a stagnant market for long. They just will not survive unless they rise to the challenge.

Look at the B&H catalog. There are two pages of medium format digital. Some doesn't make it past 16 megapixels. Medium format users don't care about high-isos - they want maximum quality and use low isos.

The vast majority of the medium format digitals are 40 megapixels or under. That's pretty much a Nikon D800. I suspect MF users would use the same complaints that DSLR users use against compact sized sensors.

There are a couple of 50, 60 and one 80 megapixel sensor. The prices are well out of the pocket of the average amateur though at up to about $40K.

The fact I see fewer medium format cameras that amateurs can afford makes me suspect that the medium format market is shrinking with former medium format people using the 35mm format instead.

I can well see a gradual downsizing of cameras. To be honest, I can't really see much point in anything other than the 28 - 1,000 superzooms for most amateurs.

There will always be people who want something a bit different and challenging compared to others.

Yes, downsizing is inevitable. As is mechanical simplification in order to decrease manufacturing cost and increase reliability. How many moving parts does a phone-cam have, even ignoring the ratio of parts and physical controls to its almost limitless list of functions and versatility? The potential of cameras and phone-cams is only limited by the imagination of designers and developers. Users tend to have the least imagination of all. As can be seen from these topics on this forum, many people are blinkered and stuck in a rut.

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quadrox Senior Member • Posts: 1,106
Re: Nothing to see here, move along.

meland wrote:

quadrox wrote:

Sorry, but I think you forgot to specify what part of your description is different than todays reality. Millions of people make do with smartphone cameras as it is. So called professional photographers participate in advertisement where they praise this phone or that instead of a DSRL. Anything larger than a point and shoot will only be used by enthusiasts, and enthusiasts will always exists.

In other words, nothing to see here, move along.

"Nothing to see here, move along." That's such a cliché isn't it.

But that's what makes it fun

Of course enthusiasts will always exist.

Glad we agree on something.

The difference from today's reality is that the enthusiast's format probably won't be FF, APS-C or M4/3 but something with a sensor (of whatever technology/design that exists then) that is very much smaller.

Unless we get lenses that provide the same amount of light (would be huge), image quality, and shallow DOF capabilities that's just not going to happen.

As for the rest of your original post, as was said before, the changes you foresee have already happened. But there will always be enthusiasts and gear heads that want more. There are still people who use MF (would if I could) or shoot film, and there will always be people who want a DSLR or MFT or what have you.

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OP (unknown member) Veteran Member • Posts: 5,590
Re: Nothing to see here, move along.

quadrox wrote:

meland wrote:

quadrox wrote:

Sorry, but I think you forgot to specify what part of your description is different than todays reality. Millions of people make do with smartphone cameras as it is. So called professional photographers participate in advertisement where they praise this phone or that instead of a DSRL. Anything larger than a point and shoot will only be used by enthusiasts, and enthusiasts will always exists.

In other words, nothing to see here, move along.

"Nothing to see here, move along." That's such a cliché isn't it.

But that's what makes it fun

Of course enthusiasts will always exist.

Glad we agree on something.

The difference from today's reality is that the enthusiast's format probably won't be FF, APS-C or M4/3 but something with a sensor (of whatever technology/design that exists then) that is very much smaller.

Unless we get lenses that provide the same amount of light (would be huge), image quality, and shallow DOF capabilities that's just not going to happen.

I love shallow DOF but I don't think it's the driver some assume it is.  Of course I'm talking about a more mainstream market now but my technical department used to receive more queries (complaints) that everything was not in focus than ever they did queries about how they could get less in focus.  In that respect small sensors with their inherent large depth of field do suit more people than large sensor cameras with wide aperture lenses.   It would indeed be a shame to lose that ability to differential focus but I also know manufacturers are looking at ways of enhancing the effect via software should there be the anticipated move to smaller sensors.

As for the rest of your original post, as was said before, the changes you foresee have already happened. But there will always be enthusiasts and gear heads that want more. There are still people who use MF (would if I could) or shoot film, and there will always be people who want a DSLR or MFT or what have you.

Yes indeed - but less of them.  That was my point.

quadrox Senior Member • Posts: 1,106
Re: Nothing to see here, move along.
1

meland wrote:

quadrox wrote:

meland wrote:

quadrox wrote:

Sorry, but I think you forgot to specify what part of your description is different than todays reality. Millions of people make do with smartphone cameras as it is. So called professional photographers participate in advertisement where they praise this phone or that instead of a DSRL. Anything larger than a point and shoot will only be used by enthusiasts, and enthusiasts will always exists.

In other words, nothing to see here, move along.

"Nothing to see here, move along." That's such a cliché isn't it.

But that's what makes it fun

Of course enthusiasts will always exist.

Glad we agree on something.

The difference from today's reality is that the enthusiast's format probably won't be FF, APS-C or M4/3 but something with a sensor (of whatever technology/design that exists then) that is very much smaller.

Unless we get lenses that provide the same amount of light (would be huge), image quality, and shallow DOF capabilities that's just not going to happen.

I love shallow DOF but I don't think it's the driver some assume it is.

Agreed. But light gathering and image quality (sharpness, aberations, etc.) are easier to attain with larger lenses for larger sensors, that's just a simple fact. So unless we get some dramatic improvement in lens construction, I think POS style cameras are near their possible peak performance - And if you want more you just HAVE to go to a larger system.

Of course I'm talking about a more mainstream market now but my technical department used to receive more queries (complaints) that everything was not in focus than ever they did queries about how they could get less in focus.

I understand this, and I realize that the larger format markets will still shrink a bit more because there still are people who buy a DSLR "just because" without understanding the advantages and limitations. Once they understand they will switch to smaller formats.

But I believe that the vast majority of people has already made that switch, and there are only few people left who have no business buying larger cameras. Therefore I say we are pretty much already "there".

In that respect small sensors with their inherent large depth of field do suit more people than large sensor cameras with wide aperture lenses. It would indeed be a shame to lose that ability to differential focus but I also know manufacturers are looking at ways of enhancing the effect via software should there be the anticipated move to smaller sensors.

As for the rest of your original post, as was said before, the changes you foresee have already happened. But there will always be enthusiasts and gear heads that want more. There are still people who use MF (would if I could) or shoot film, and there will always be people who want a DSLR or MFT or what have you.

Yes indeed - but less of them. That was my point.

See above, I think the vast majority of people have already decided that smaller systems are good enough for them and have made that switch. Those that are still using larger systems do it (mostly) because it really is what they want or need.

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OP (unknown member) Veteran Member • Posts: 5,590
Re: Nothing to see here, move along.

quadrox wrote:

meland wrote:

quadrox wrote:

meland wrote:

quadrox wrote:

Sorry, but I think you forgot to specify what part of your description is different than todays reality. Millions of people make do with smartphone cameras as it is. So called professional photographers participate in advertisement where they praise this phone or that instead of a DSRL. Anything larger than a point and shoot will only be used by enthusiasts, and enthusiasts will always exists.

In other words, nothing to see here, move along.

"Nothing to see here, move along." That's such a cliché isn't it.

But that's what makes it fun

Of course enthusiasts will always exist.

Glad we agree on something.

The difference from today's reality is that the enthusiast's format probably won't be FF, APS-C or M4/3 but something with a sensor (of whatever technology/design that exists then) that is very much smaller.

Unless we get lenses that provide the same amount of light (would be huge), image quality, and shallow DOF capabilities that's just not going to happen.

I love shallow DOF but I don't think it's the driver some assume it is.

Agreed. But light gathering and image quality (sharpness, aberations, etc.) are easier to attain with larger lenses for larger sensors, that's just a simple fact. So unless we get some dramatic improvement in lens construction, I think POS style cameras are near their possible peak performance - And if you want more you just HAVE to go to a larger system.

Of course I'm talking about a more mainstream market now but my technical department used to receive more queries (complaints) that everything was not in focus than ever they did queries about how they could get less in focus.

I understand this, and I realize that the larger format markets will still shrink a bit more because there still are people who buy a DSLR "just because" without understanding the advantages and limitations. Once they understand they will switch to smaller formats.

But I believe that the vast majority of people has already made that switch, and there are only few people left who have no business buying larger cameras. Therefore I say we are pretty much already "there".

In that respect small sensors with their inherent large depth of field do suit more people than large sensor cameras with wide aperture lenses. It would indeed be a shame to lose that ability to differential focus but I also know manufacturers are looking at ways of enhancing the effect via software should there be the anticipated move to smaller sensors.

As for the rest of your original post, as was said before, the changes you foresee have already happened. But there will always be enthusiasts and gear heads that want more. There are still people who use MF (would if I could) or shoot film, and there will always be people who want a DSLR or MFT or what have you.

Yes indeed - but less of them. That was my point.

See above, I think the vast majority of people have already decided that smaller systems are good enough for them and have made that switch. Those that are still using larger systems do it (mostly) because it really is what they want or need.

I don't believe most people have already switched as you suggest. Sales and production figures certainly don't bear that out. There is a lag in the market in switching out because a variety of people are still telling new entrants to photography that DSLRs or M4/3, or whatever, is what they need if they want good results. And the alternatives are not quite compelling enough - yet.

Whether these well meaning people are Uncle Bobs who has been into photography for years, or camera shops who are staffed by people who are believers and who have stock to shift, or by photo magazines who also depend on preaching the gospel for advertising revenue, there are still a lot of them.

Given time and a compelling alternative these missionaries will have moved on and that, combined with a strong marketing message from the manufacturers, will eventually cause the majority to switch to a more compelling alternative.  Whether it is a better alternative (in terms of IQ) is another point altogether.

stevo23 Forum Pro • Posts: 15,295
Re: Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

meland wrote:

stevo23 wrote:

meland wrote:

In ten or fifteen years (the exact time span is not the main point of this prediction) mainstream enthusiast photography may have gone small format. Forget full frame. Forget APS-C. Forget M4/3. These may all be then regarded as medium format and as such only the province of a few professionals and quality fetishists.

So how do you think this current trend toward full frame that we're seeing will play out? First Sony, now Olympus and Fuji are making noises about it. Do you think this is just a short and passing fad?

I think it will remain for a while for the high end enthusiast and professional markets. After which it will retract to much smaller volumes, somewhat like MF achieves today.

As a volume product, I'm not sure many manufacturers that are not already in it will adopt it. Designing and making a range of FF lenses when you have none is too expensive to enable a return on investment for the small volumes and I don't believe there will be enough purchasers committed enough to sustain it anyway.

That may be a popular take in this whole thing and some would say makes the most sense.

As a segway, my biggest concern with the Sony A7 series is their overall commitment given Sony's financial woes. I think it's a great concept and would be my preference going forward - if I can be sure they'll stay around. They've shown a propensity to be trendy and given their current lineup with now three separate lens systems, it's hard to tell where they plan to be in 5 years.

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OP (unknown member) Veteran Member • Posts: 5,590
Re: Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

stevo23 wrote:

meland wrote:

stevo23 wrote:

meland wrote:

In ten or fifteen years (the exact time span is not the main point of this prediction) mainstream enthusiast photography may have gone small format. Forget full frame. Forget APS-C. Forget M4/3. These may all be then regarded as medium format and as such only the province of a few professionals and quality fetishists.

So how do you think this current trend toward full frame that we're seeing will play out? First Sony, now Olympus and Fuji are making noises about it. Do you think this is just a short and passing fad?

I think it will remain for a while for the high end enthusiast and professional markets. After which it will retract to much smaller volumes, somewhat like MF achieves today.

As a volume product, I'm not sure many manufacturers that are not already in it will adopt it. Designing and making a range of FF lenses when you have none is too expensive to enable a return on investment for the small volumes and I don't believe there will be enough purchasers committed enough to sustain it anyway.

That may be a popular take in this whole thing and some would say makes the most sense.

As a segway, my biggest concern with the Sony A7 series is their overall commitment given Sony's financial woes. I think it's a great concept and would be my preference going forward - if I can be sure they'll stay around. They've shown a propensity to be trendy and given their current lineup with now three separate lens systems, it's hard to tell where they plan to be in 5 years.

That may be the real issue and I'm not sure Sony know the answer to that themselves.  It seems to be a question of let's suck it and see.

SomebodyFamous
SomebodyFamous Regular Member • Posts: 324
Re: I'll make my own prediction

Aberaeron wrote:

SomebodyFamous wrote:

Aberaeron wrote:

With even the paparazzi professionals being replaced by reporters with iPhones, I don't really think that the expensive 'professional' DSLR has much of a future. If the volume of high end product drops significantly, the remaining products in that sector will have to rise in price. There is no room for a rise in price because the cat is out of the bag and people know that less expensive cameras will do the same job. And so do the professionals know this also, and they will have to become more efficient and have lower costs in future, not higher costs, if they are to derive a meaningful income from still images. In fact the demand is already there for combined still and video shooters. If neither the camera manufacturers nor the photographers get in the groove on this, there are plenty of others to take their place. Low cost, efficient workflow, innovative products and services, that is what the market will increasingly demand of both professional photogs and equipment manufacturers. Nobody can afford a stagnant market for long. They just will not survive unless they rise to the challenge.

Look at the B&H catalog. There are two pages of medium format digital. Some doesn't make it past 16 megapixels. Medium format users don't care about high-isos - they want maximum quality and use low isos.

The vast majority of the medium format digitals are 40 megapixels or under. That's pretty much a Nikon D800. I suspect MF users would use the same complaints that DSLR users use against compact sized sensors.

There are a couple of 50, 60 and one 80 megapixel sensor. The prices are well out of the pocket of the average amateur though at up to about $40K.

The fact I see fewer medium format cameras that amateurs can afford makes me suspect that the medium format market is shrinking with former medium format people using the 35mm format instead.

I can well see a gradual downsizing of cameras. To be honest, I can't really see much point in anything other than the 28 - 1,000 superzooms for most amateurs.

There will always be people who want something a bit different and challenging compared to others.

Yes, downsizing is inevitable. As is mechanical simplification in order to decrease manufacturing cost and increase reliability. How many moving parts does a phone-cam have, even ignoring the ratio of parts and physical controls to its almost limitless list of functions and versatility? The potential of cameras and phone-cams is only limited by the imagination of designers and developers. Users tend to have the least imagination of all. As can be seen from these topics on this forum, many people are blinkered and stuck in a rut.

What I think is happening is this: 35mm DSLRs are fast becoming the new medium format. Compact ILCs are becoming the format for the new amateur. Think of it as the old film days when professionals used plate camera and amateurs used 120/200 then it became professionals using 120/220 and amateurs using 35mm. Then they had a debacle with APS film where they tried to push an unwanted format that was not sufficiently different to take off.

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MoreorLess Veteran Member • Posts: 4,411
Re: I'll make my own prediction

Aberaeron wrote:

Brendan Delaney wrote:

Agree - Two ends of the market. Always were...

Images for memories, sharing and being a part of one's life.. (99% of people) Box Brownie/Film compact and high st lab/ P&S / Cameraphone.

Art and professional photography...Glass plates /medium format/highend SLR/DSLR.

What happened briefly in the 1970/80s and in the past 10years is that the camera companies managed to sell cheap/volume (D)SLRS to the first market. That time is now ending.

-- hide signature --

www.brendandelaneyphotography.com
Street, Urban and Documentary Photography

With even the paparazzi professionals being replaced by reporters with iPhones, I don't really think that the expensive 'professional' DSLR has much of a future. If the volume of high end product drops significantly, the remaining products in that sector will have to rise in price. There is no room for a rise in price because the cat is out of the bag and people know that less expensive cameras will do the same job. And so do the professionals know this also, and they will have to become more efficient and have lower costs in future, not higher costs, if they are to derive a meaningful income from still images. In fact the demand is already there for combined still and video shooters. If neither the camera manufacturers nor the photographers get in the groove on this, there are plenty of others to take their place. Low cost, efficient workflow, innovative products and services, that is what the market will increasingly demand of both professional photogs and equipment manufacturers. Nobody can afford a stagnant market for long. They just will not survive unless they rise to the challenge.

I don't think you can take that example and spread it across the entire market, paps and reporters have clear reasons to use phones(stealth and connectivity) that many other professionals do not.

Personally I think a lot of the arguments that quality "doesn't matter" as much are very questionable as well. I'd argue that most of the areas that have been replaced by digital viewing were actually pretty low quality to begin with, small highstreet prints, newspapers etc. If anything I think the demand for quality higher up has increased, most obviously because its now far easier and cheaper to print large. Professionally I think quality has become more important when it comes to market differential, prints have become larger, coffee table books have become larger, glossy mags photo spreads have become larger. Whats more were now entering an era were digital displays themselves may start to rival prints for quality.

RussellInCincinnati Veteran Member • Posts: 3,201
you think there will be F/0.6 zooms in 15 years
1

Meland original post:In ten or fifteen years (the exact time span is not the main point of this prediction) mainstream enthusiast photography may have gone small format. Forget full frame. Forget APS-C. Forget M4/3. These may all be then regarded as medium format and as such only the province of a few professionals and quality fetishists.

You seem to think that large-enough, beautifully smooth and detailed/crisp images will in 10 to 15 years be made by tiny-sensored cameras having a single wide-range zoom lens, even in low light.

Doesn't the Sony RX10 (9 by 13 millimeter sensor) already have most of those qualities, except for the low light capability? By your prediction, as soon as the Sony RX10's low light performance becomes the same as a high-end APS-C sensor now has, then APS-C sales will evaporate. Oops, that will be when the RX11 comes out with an F/0.9 or so max-aperture zoom of the same size, cost and weight and zoom range.

For one thing, you are implying that in 10 or 15 years, there will be lenses ten times as sharp as a full frame lens today, that will thus work just as beautifully as a Nikon D800, but on a 10 times smaller than full frame sensor. Since my 20 to 40 year old full frame lenses are "about the same" sharpness as my newest ones, I do not share your optimism that we are on the verge of an era of hugely sharper lenses--that are at the same time cheaper, smaller and lighter and have the same crispness, enlargeability, zoom range and light-gathering ability as today's "large" iron.

A second point is that in 15 years, there will not be F/0.6 zoom lenses that will work just as nicely in low light on a tiny sensor, as the new Sigma F/1.8 zoom lens works on APS-C today. Not while also being significantly lighter, smaller, cheaper. Hmm, I think it took the industry about 10 years to go from F/2.8 wide-to-normal zooms to F/1.8 zooms. Buy you think we're going to be at unheard-of F/0.6 or so zoom designs, in cheap small light lenses that would benefit from tiny-sensor bodies, in 10 or 15 more years?

I.e. your predictions assume optical advances that are at least not on anyone else's horizon, if not impossible. Because the only way that tiny-sensor cameras are going to work as beautifully as today's cams in low light, are if their lenses have the same light-gathering front element diameter. That's because the limit to low light performance is unavoidable "photon shot noise" that is only suppressable by gathering more photons. And camera/lens systems cannot both get arbitrarily small, light and cheap and also work just as well as DSLRs do today.

Yes you can predict that in the future people will be happier with lower-quality images than they are used to today. I guess you will thus also predict that in 10 or 15 years televisions will be smaller and lower-resolution too, and women won't buy makeup, and interior decorators and landscapers will be obsolete, since by 2022 people won't want nice images.

But what you are really predicting is not that bigger cameras will disappear, because that's silly. Bigger cameras will always take nicer photos, whatever the era. No what you're really predicting is that in 10 or 15 years there will be no photographers. I.e. there will be no people that enjoy taking as nice as photos as they reasonably can of the world around them.

That prediction is as likely to come true, as it is likely that neither you nor any significant number of viewers of this forum message, will click on the above image to see what it looks like at full size.

sportyaccordy Veteran Member • Posts: 9,012
Re: Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

When small formats can get to equivalent speeds of large formats I think people will begin to seriously reconsider. Small sensor tech is already beginning to creep. For example RX100-II is only 1 stop down in speed from the typical APS-C sensor, despite being 2 stops down in area. If you have a format that is physically 1 stop smaller than the next step up, but has cleanness parity through tech and faster glass, I do think a lot of folks would move over. For example if Nikon 1 system came out with a 1.8 zoom or 1.2 primes (for reasonable prices) I think a lot of folks would give them a look.

I disagree though that big formats will ever go away. People still shoot MF, people will always shoot FX if for no other reason than being invested in the glass. D700, 5DII, D4 etc are all still top of the line in image quality.

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OP (unknown member) Veteran Member • Posts: 5,590
Re: you think there will be F/0.6 zooms in 15 years

RussellInCincinnati wrote:

Meland original post:In ten or fifteen years (the exact time span is not the main point of this prediction) mainstream enthusiast photography may have gone small format. Forget full frame. Forget APS-C. Forget M4/3. These may all be then regarded as medium format and as such only the province of a few professionals and quality fetishists.

You seem to think that large-enough, beautifully smooth and detailed/crisp images will in 10 to 15 years be made by tiny-sensored cameras having a single wide-range zoom lens, even in low light.

Doesn't the Sony RX10 (9 by 13 millimeter sensor) already have most of those qualities, except for the low light capability? By your prediction, as soon as the Sony RX10's low light performance becomes the same as a high-end APS-C sensor now has, then APS-C sales will evaporate. Oops, that will be when the RX11 comes out with an F/0.9 or so max-aperture zoom of the same size, cost and weight and zoom range.

For one thing, you are implying that in 10 or 15 years, there will be lenses ten times as sharp as a full frame lens today, that will thus work just as beautifully as a Nikon D800, but on a 10 times smaller than full frame sensor. Since my 20 to 40 year old full frame lenses are "about the same" sharpness as my newest ones, I do not share your optimism that we are on the verge of an era of hugely sharper lenses--that are at the same time cheaper, smaller and lighter and have the same crispness, enlargeability, zoom range and light-gathering ability as today's "large" iron.

A second point is that in 15 years, there will not be F/0.6 zoom lenses that will work just as nicely in low light on a tiny sensor, as the new Sigma F/1.8 zoom lens works on APS-C today. Not while also being significantly lighter, smaller, cheaper. Hmm, I think it took the industry about 10 years to go from F/2.8 wide-to-normal zooms to F/1.8 zooms. Buy you think we're going to be at unheard-of F/0.6 or so zoom designs, in cheap small light lenses that would benefit from tiny-sensor bodies, in 10 or 15 more years?

I.e. your predictions assume optical advances that are at least not on anyone else's horizon, if not impossible. Because the only way that tiny-sensor cameras are going to work as beautifully as today's cams in low light, are if their lenses have the same light-gathering front element diameter. That's because the limit to low light performance is unavoidable "photon shot noise" that is only suppressable by gathering more photons. And camera/lens systems cannot both get arbitrarily small, light and cheap and also work just as well as DSLRs do today.

Yes you can predict that in the future people will be happier with lower-quality images than they are used to today. I guess you will thus also predict that in 10 or 15 years televisions will be smaller and lower-resolution too, and women won't buy makeup, and interior decorators and landscapers will be obsolete, since by 2022 people won't want nice images.

But what you are really predicting is not that bigger cameras will disappear, because that's silly. Bigger cameras will always take nicer photos, whatever the era. No what you're really predicting is that in 10 or 15 years there will be no photographers. I.e. there will be no people that enjoy taking as nice as photos as they reasonably can of the world around them.

That prediction is as likely to come true, as it is likely that neither you nor any significant number of viewers of this forum message, will click on the above image to see what it looks like at full size.

No Russell, what I am saying is that with a relatively small increase in small sensor quality (and not nearly as much as you say I am implying) the majority of fairly-interested photographers, or should I say non-obsessed by IQ photographers, may be completely satisfied. They may not care as much as you do, or perhaps even I do, about beautifully smooth and detailed/crisp images. But the images they do get will be good enough and will satisfy them. And I am certainly not saying there will be, or even implying there might be, any massive increase in lens aperture or performance to achieve this. I know enough about optical design and materials having worked in this particular field for more years than I care to admit to know that is very unlikely if not impossible. And I don't think I ever mentioned low light performance in any case.

The really serious enthusiasts and a few professionals may not be satisfied, in fact they probably will not be. But that reduced number of people who really care about what you so eloquently describe may not be sufficient to support a camera market like we have today.

High end stuff, at a price, will still exist for the reduced numbers of people who really do care - but the price of entry is likely to be much much higher because of reduced demand. That is actually what I am saying.  I hope I have been able to clarify things?

OP (unknown member) Veteran Member • Posts: 5,590
Re: Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

sportyaccordy wrote:

When small formats can get to equivalent speeds of large formats I think people will begin to seriously reconsider. Small sensor tech is already beginning to creep. For example RX100-II is only 1 stop down in speed from the typical APS-C sensor, despite being 2 stops down in area. If you have a format that is physically 1 stop smaller than the next step up, but has cleanness parity through tech and faster glass, I do think a lot of folks would move over. For example if Nikon 1 system came out with a 1.8 zoom or 1.2 primes (for reasonable prices) I think a lot of folks would give them a look.

I disagree though that big formats will ever go away.

I didn't say they would go away.  I do believe there will be less people using them though.

People still shoot MF, people will always shoot FX if for no other reason than being invested in the glass. D700, 5DII, D4 etc are all still top of the line in image quality.

Mike CH Veteran Member • Posts: 7,721
You're cliched too, you know...

meland wrote:

quadrox wrote:

Sorry, but I think you forgot to specify what part of your description is different than todays reality. Millions of people make do with smartphone cameras as it is. So called professional photographers participate in advertisement where they praise this phone or that instead of a DSRL. Anything larger than a point and shoot will only be used by enthusiasts, and enthusiasts will always exists.

In other words, nothing to see here, move along.

"Nothing to see here, move along." That's such a cliché isn't it.

As is predicting the death of whatever.

Regards, Mike

-- hide signature --

Wait and see...

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OP (unknown member) Veteran Member • Posts: 5,590
Re: You're cliched too, you know...

Mike CH wrote:

meland wrote:

quadrox wrote:

Sorry, but I think you forgot to specify what part of your description is different than todays reality. Millions of people make do with smartphone cameras as it is. So called professional photographers participate in advertisement where they praise this phone or that instead of a DSRL. Anything larger than a point and shoot will only be used by enthusiasts, and enthusiasts will always exists.

In other words, nothing to see here, move along.

"Nothing to see here, move along." That's such a cliché isn't it.

As is predicting the death of whatever.

Regards, Mike

-- hide signature --

Wait and see...

Thanks.

TheDman Regular Member • Posts: 367
Re: Nothing to see here, move along.

meland wrote:

"Forget full frame. Forget APS-C. Forget M4/3. These may all be then regarded as medium format and as such only the province of a few professionals and quality fetishists."

"Of course enthusiasts will always exist. The difference from today's reality is that the enthusiast's format probably won't be FF, APS-C or M4/3 but something with a sensor (of whatever technology/design that exists then) that is very much smaller."

Which is it?

OP (unknown member) Veteran Member • Posts: 5,590
Re: Nothing to see here, move along.

TheDman wrote:

meland wrote:

"Forget full frame. Forget APS-C. Forget M4/3. These may all be then regarded as medium format and as such only the province of a few professionals and quality fetishists."

"Of course enthusiasts will always exist. The difference from today's reality is that the enthusiast's format probably won't be FF, APS-C or M4/3 but something with a sensor (of whatever technology/design that exists then) that is very much smaller."

Which is it?

Which is what?

paulkienitz
paulkienitz Veteran Member • Posts: 5,266
Re: Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

What do enthusiat buyers do when comparing cameras?  Read reviews , examine test graphs, and compare specs.  What cameras will never win in such a comparison?  Small format ones.  Do you really think the camera that will be hailed as The Future, and ahead of its time, will be the Pentax Q?  I don't.  People will never be slavering to replace their last-year's gear with the latest new thing, when the old one produces higher quality images than the new one does.

Those who only want convenience will use their phones.  Those interested in real photography will have more interest than ever in larger formats.  Far from seeing FF die out, I see MF coming down in price and becoming more mainstream than it is now.  Once sensor technology plateaus, the only real quality differentiator for those who want something better is sensor size.

The market for interchangeable-lens camera systems is going to shrink -- no one doubts that.  We've been seeing a bubble in sales of inexpensive DSLRs, which won't last... but the result of that coming to an end isn't going to be ever smaller and cheaper cameras, but bigger and more elite ones, as many of those who supported the bottom of the market go back to solutions that don't use interchangeable lenses.

-- hide signature --

"A good photograph is knowing where to stand." -- Ansel

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