Why Thom is wrong...

Started Sep 25, 2013 | Discussions
TrapperJohn Forum Pro • Posts: 16,488
The tunnel vision is on short term sales

I'm sure that pro film cameras were selling well, until they were not.

Yes, DSLR sales in the US are much better than mirrorless sales. True also that mirrorless has pulled even with DSLR in Japan, which, photo happy people that they are, tends to be a bellweather for the rest of the world. In general, Japan tends to be five to ten years ahead of the rest of the camera world.

The simple fact is - your market leaders made an effort to get into a new and emerging market, and they fielded mediocre, uncompetitive products, which sold poorly. Nikon sold some Ones to weekend snapshotters, the same people who are gradually moving to cell phones. Canon sold to... almost no one.

Their products were not competitive, and it cannot be blamed on a first effort. Sony came into the mirrorless market with a very competitive NEX. Fuji came into the mirrorless market with a very competitive XPro1 and XE1. Olympus and Panasonic created the market. Canon and Nikon drag in with these weak, half thought out products, too busy protecting their DSLR, or looking at each other to actually pay attention to what was selling.

If that is how Canon and Nikon pursue the DSLR market, imagine where it would be if there were serious competition there.

That, to me, is one of the most exciting aspects of the mirrorless market. It is moving quickly, a lot of interesting design ideas, and a lot of competition between several different designs, each with its own strong point. Mirrorless is not dominated by two slow moving companies who are content to feed a few more MP, and one more ISO stop, every two or three years.

SirSeth
SirSeth Veteran Member • Posts: 9,905
Re: Why Thom is wrong...

Richard wrote:

And Mirrorless is dead. Now before you go getting emotional, ponder the logic.

Calling it logic doesn't make it so. Ponder that logic.

1.DSLRs act like mirrorless as they are right now. They push the mirror out of the way when they go into live view. The first objection is that the AF is faster on mirrorless, sure using on sensor AF on a DSLR. Right now that is true but if you think Canonikon is going to sit on the hands and not improve live view to the point it is better than current mirrorless, I think they are smarter than that. It will happen or Canonikon will die. Mirrorless will lose the AF advantage in live view.

2. Canikon already have EVF, on the back of the camera for live view. They also can use a laptop, tablet or smart phone as a remote. They have had this for some time. Mirrorless has no advantage there.

3. Canikon can make smaller dslrs with APS-C that will be able to compete with mirrorless or they can produce better EOSM and V1 units. Again, they cover Pro, Advanced amateur, beginner, small size DSLRs. (they both produce point and shoots too.)

At this point mirrorless has no advantage and has disadvantages compared to Canikon solutions.

So is mirrorless really going to be dead? No, I think M43 because of the number of lenses and market penetration even though small will survived as a niche market camera. BUT I only think there will be 2 major players, Sony and Panny, possibly Sony and Oly but Oly seems to be on its way out or at least to a reduced market share and segment at this point.

Thom can predict, but so can I. I think that cell phones will only get better and be good enough for the masses, and Canikon will take up the rest of the market with some mirrorless being niche while other disappear. Because Japanese culture is different, it is hard for me to predict what they will buy. I am sure budding Asian markets will embrace cell phones, with pros and advanced amatuers buying Canikon.

Canikons strength is not just DSLR, it is lenses APS-C for smaller cameras and FF which mirrorless lacks.

I think most camera people know these points already and if they are honest with themselves, they already know mirrorless in its present form is not where it is at.

I use DSLRs and mirrorless and being very honest with myself I'm quite sure that mirrorless in it's present form is technologically advancing at a pace that DSLRs can only dream about.

Cheers,

Seth

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stevo23 Forum Pro • Posts: 15,542
Re: The tunnel vision is on short term sales

TrapperJohn wrote:

I'm sure that pro film cameras were selling well, until they were not.

Yes, DSLR sales in the US are much better than mirrorless sales. True also that mirrorless has pulled even with DSLR in Japan, which, photo happy people that they are, tends to be a bellweather for the rest of the world. In general, Japan tends to be five to ten years ahead of the rest of the camera world.

The simple fact is - your market leaders made an effort to get into a new and emerging market, and they fielded mediocre, uncompetitive products, which sold poorly. Nikon sold some Ones to weekend snapshotters, the same people who are gradually moving to cell phones. Canon sold to... almost no one.

Their products were not competitive, and it cannot be blamed on a first effort. Sony came into the mirrorless market with a very competitive NEX. Fuji came into the mirrorless market with a very competitive XPro1 and XE1. Olympus and Panasonic created the market. Canon and Nikon drag in with these weak, half thought out products, too busy protecting their DSLR, or looking at each other to actually pay attention to what was selling.

If that is how Canon and Nikon pursue the DSLR market, imagine where it would be if there were serious competition there.

That, to me, is one of the most exciting aspects of the mirrorless market. It is moving quickly, a lot of interesting design ideas, and a lot of competition between several different designs, each with its own strong point. Mirrorless is not dominated by two slow moving companies who are content to feed a few more MP, and one more ISO stop, every two or three years.

You have a very visceral reaction. It's not grounded in facts. I'm not a fanbouy for anything. I like them all. Like Rollei, Yashica, Agfa, Contax, Fuji, Pentax, whatever. There's no benefit to slamming certain cameras just because you don't know how to use them.

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stevo23 Forum Pro • Posts: 15,542
Re: Mirrorlessness and legacy systems

Matsu wrote:

How big or small the system is will depend on how large a sensor you want, AND what sort of lenses you want. Big fast zoom ratios will be big, on either a long register or a short one. Wide primes will be smaller on a "mirrorless" design.

Does angle of incidence have any bearing? I remember some early engineering challenges related to the differences between sensors and film requiring light to be better collimated. Is there a limit to how close we want to be to the plane?

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brianric Veteran Member • Posts: 7,144
Re: Why Thom is wrong...

Reilly Diefenbach wrote:

Yes, absolutely. The Nikon popup flash works extremely well indeed. If you're lugging around a Flash with your Oly, you've lost any conceivable weight and size advantage.

Poppies with popup

The Olympus comes with FL-LM2 Flash Unit, weighs 31 g, which can be used in the rain. Try that with your 800E.

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brianric Veteran Member • Posts: 7,144
Re: Why Thom is wrong...

PK24X36NOW wrote:

If you're willing to sacrifice the ability to isolate subjects from background, are willing to sacrifice (high ISO and overall) image quality, are willing to sacrifice tracking autofocus for moving subjects, are willing to sacrifice battery life, and are willing to suffer with akward ergonomics/poor controls because the camera bodies are too small to allow enough room for extensive on-camera controls (or because the controls are so small they can't be easily used), then mirrorless cameras may seem like a good "alternative," but when those limitations are taken into account, they provide no compelling reason to move away from dSLRs. Quite the reverse, in fact.

I'm willing to sacrifice subject isolation, not planning to shoot high ISO. The new Olympus M-1 is reported to handle moving objects. See me in six months for a report back. Bottom line, the M43, especially the Olympus M-1, offers compelling reasons to own one, especially in the weight issue. When I shoot events, it is with two cameras, 24-120 on one, 70-200 on second body. The fast glass stays at home because of weight issues. Image quality is quite good on the M43 at moderate ISO. I'm coming from four FF Nikon DSLRs, two which happen to be D800 & D800E. If the Olympus M-1 can handle tracking on moving objects, my D3S, and possible D800 will be up for sale. I'll hold on to the D800E and D700 for subject isolation and low light capabilities, while doing my outdoor events with the M-1.

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brianric Veteran Member • Posts: 7,144
Re: Why Richard is wrong...
1

Erik Magnuson wrote:

Mirror mechanism failures in DSLRs are quite rare. It's not like they've been making them for 50 years or so. I'd suspect EVF failures are more common at this state of maturity.


Erik

I went through four of them on my 1DmkIII.

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brianric Veteran Member • Posts: 7,144
Re: Done!

DT200 wrote:

In a few more years people buying DSLRs will be the same people wearing mechanical watches, paying with checks, and using Jitter Bug phones. They all will be wearing those shade things on the sides of their glasses and eating diner at 4PM at Golden Coral.

And so shall you, just a matter of time.

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bosjohn Veteran Member • Posts: 4,890
Re: Why Thom is wrong...

Richard wrote:

And Mirrorless is dead. Now before you go getting emotional, ponder the logic.

1.DSLRs act like mirrorless as they are right now. They push the mirror out of the way when they go into live view. The first objection is that the AF is faster on mirrorless, sure using on sensor AF on a DSLR. Right now that is true but if you think Canonikon is going to sit on the hands and not improve live view to the point it is better than current mirrorless, I think they are smarter than that. It will happen or Canonikon will die. Mirrorless will lose the AF advantage in live view.

2. Canikon already have EVF, on the back of the camera for live view. They also can use a laptop, tablet or smart phone as a remote. They have had this for some time. Mirrorless has no advantage there.

3. Canikon can make smaller dslrs with APS-C that will be able to compete with mirrorless or they can produce better EOSM and V1 units. Again, they cover Pro, Advanced amateur, beginner, small size DSLRs. (they both produce point and shoots too.)

At this point mirrorless has no advantage and has disadvantages compared to Canikon solutions.

So is mirrorless really going to be dead? No, I think M43 because of the number of lenses and market penetration even though small will survived as a niche market camera. BUT I only think there will be 2 major players, Sony and Panny, possibly Sony and Oly but Oly seems to be on its way out or at least to a reduced market share and segment at this point.

Thom can predict, but so can I. I think that cell phones will only get better and be good enough for the masses, and Canikon will take up the rest of the market with some mirrorless being niche while other disappear. Because Japanese culture is different, it is hard for me to predict what they will buy. I am sure budding Asian markets will embrace cell phones, with pros and advanced amatuers buying Canikon.

Canikons strength is not just DSLR, it is lenses APS-C for smaller cameras and FF which mirrorless lacks.

I think most camera people know these points already and if they are honest with themselves, they already know mirrorless in its present form is not where it is at.

Yes Canon makes what the call the smallest dslr but the lenses which you put on it are the same big glass as a regular dslr so while the body is indeed very small it does't really save that much weight.

Also the price you pay for the tiny weeny el cheepo Canon or Nikon no longer use a pentiprism but mirrors which work ok but do not transmit as much light so the image is dimmer.

I really have no idea if m4/3 will fail but not in the near future. But all but the high end dslrs probably will in the not so distant future because the camera makers can realize more profit from the cost savings of mirrorless over mirrored.

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OP Richard Veteran Member • Posts: 4,858
Re: Why Thom is wrong...

SirSeth wrote:

Richard wrote:I think most camera people know these points already and if they are honest with themselves, they already know mirrorless in its present form is not where it is at.

I use DSLRs and mirrorless and being very honest with myself I'm quite sure that mirrorless in it's present form is technologically advancing at a pace that DSLRs can only dream about.

Because they were so far behind to begin with, they look like advancements but in reality, not much new.

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