Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line

Started Sep 20, 2013 | Discussions
Eamon Hickey Veteran Member • Posts: 3,961
generally correct, but you're reading CIPA wrong

jim stirling wrote:

Almost 6 times more DSLR cameras shipped than all mirrorless put together { 250 million compared to 43million } Even in Japan the most successful market in the world for mirrorless 65% of models shipping are DSLR, in the worst market for mirroless the USA you are hitting 90% DSLR. These are cold hard facts in black and white from non biased sources.

Jim, your general point about mirrorless sales is absolutely correct (not that it will ever penetrate the many closed minds on this forum).

But you're reading the CIPA data incorrectly. The numbers you cited are value (in 1,000s of yen), not units.

So your numbers are saying that for the first six months of this calendar year worldwide DSLR shipments had a value of 250 million thousand yen (i.e. 250 billion yen, or about 3 billion dollars), and worldwide mirrorless sales had a value of 43 million thousand yen (i.e. 43 billion yen or about 500 million dollars).

Just for context, the greatest sales year ever for interchangeable-lens cameras of all types was calendar year 2012 and the combined worldwide number was 20 million units (16 million DSLRs and 4 million mirrorless). 250 million units would be about 15-20 years worth of production, at recent sales rates. The peak of the consumer point-and-shoot market, in units, was about 130-140 million.

The unit numbers are right above the value numbers in CIPA's charts. So for the first six months of this year, the unit numbers are:

DSLR: 6.3 million units

Mirrorless: 1.3 million units

Percentages of worldwide ILC market share are:

DSLR: 85% by value; 83% by unit

Mirrorless: 15% by value; 17% by unit

Notes: these are factory shipments, which over short time periods (3-6 months), are not exactly the same as consumer sales, although quite close. The figures do not include Samsung's ILC business (the NX line), but it is tiny and might alter the numbers by 1 or 2 percentage points at most.

YouDidntDidYou
YouDidntDidYou Senior Member • Posts: 1,576
matt driskill @ reuters

Not sure why matt driskill had to edit Sophie Knight's reporting like that, I've just had a look at some of his other edits done a reuters  and all I can say he has deliberately painted Olympus in a bad light

Eamon Hickey Veteran Member • Posts: 3,961
see my other note about reading CIPA (nt)

jim stirling wrote:

The CIPA data for the first 6 months of this year shows 74,859,433 DSLR were exported to Europe as a whole with 8,170,738 .

Just for anyone reading this thread: Jim's general point is 100% correct, but these aren't the correct unit numbers (they are value numbers). See my other note about reading CIPA charts.

(Sorry, Jim, I've just seen too many times how mistakes propagate on these forums ...)

jim stirling
jim stirling Veteran Member • Posts: 7,356
Re: see my other note about reading CIPA (nt)

Eamon Hickey wrote:

jim stirling wrote:

The CIPA data for the first 6 months of this year shows 74,859,433 DSLR were exported to Europe as a whole with 8,170,738 .

Just for anyone reading this thread: Jim's general point is 100% correct, but these aren't the correct unit numbers (they are value numbers). See my other note about reading CIPA charts.

(Sorry, Jim, I've just seen too many times how mistakes propagate on these forums ...)

No that's fair Eamon I did post the link to the original data .

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nexlover88 Regular Member • Posts: 100
Re: Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line

Dheorl wrote:

nexlover88 wrote:

i feel em1 will not threaten canon and nikon. it is just too expensive and few people can afford it. on this forum we're obviously enthusiasts and we are willing to spend more for the most part.

it is a volumes game. once you get into a system, like canon or nikon, you buy a cheap body, you start buying a few cheap lenses, and you belong to that brand. you may upgrade to better bodies and lenses later, but you stay with the same brand. not only this, if your buddies have a nikon, you can borrrow/exchange lenses to play around with, and the used lenses/accessories market are real big and you don't have to worry about taking a bloodbath if you don't like what you have bought.

This is one thing I agree with is I find it a shame I can't swap lenses with as many of my friends, although at uni photography clubs there certainly seems to be an increase in m4/3 so that's changing.

unfortunately m43 just doesn't have that. there are no cheap bodies that are dslr style (with a grip) that you can comfortably use bigger lenses with. and there's no upgrade path unlike going from DX to FF.

G5/G6? Also I know very few DSLR owners who have actually gone from DX to FX. For one thing half their lenses are designed for DX cameras so they'd have to change all of those anyway.

i'm more familar with canon. i like olympus, it's good, but it's very hard to justify paying for something like the em1 or even em5. with canon, you can buy a 700d/t5i kit for cheap, and then add some nice affordable lenses like the sigma 30 1.4, 17-50 2.8, canon 50 1.8, granted they are more heavy compare to m43, but are they really that much heavier? it's not like with the em1/12-35mm you're carrying a rx100. you still feel it big time.

When comparing the canon to the new m4/3 cameras, it's not only heavier but compared to the high end m4/3 less well featured and not as well built.

right, i forgot about the g6. but its sensor performance lags behind (at least 1 stop?) aps-c competitors. the main point i'm trying to make is the price. yeah, i realize the m4/3 system has selling points. nice quality. but most people are very, very price conscious, once they set a budget, they don't want to get over that line. this is the reason why m4/3 is unable to gain major traction. to gain more volume, they must come up with more affordable dslr style camera bodies.

most people haven't moved to FF since affordable FF cameras only came out recently. but more will be coming. some lenses can migrate to FF cameras, especially primes, such as 35mm, 50mm, 85mm, etc.

the other problem i forgot to mention is if you don't want to buy additional lenses, or move past the cheap kit lenses, the m4/3 photos simply don't look as nice as aps-c due to larger depth of field. we can debate all we want about whether bokeh is good or not, but most people like it, and aps-c cameras with kit lenses are better than m4/3 cameras with kit lenses in this regard. just imagine 2 guys bringing their cameras with kit lenses, 1 guy using aps-c, the other guy using m4/3, and put them into auto modes. i bet the aps-c will have "nicer" photos in most peoples eyes.

jim stirling
jim stirling Veteran Member • Posts: 7,356
Re: generally correct, but you're reading CIPA wrong

Eamon Hickey wrote:

jim stirling wrote:

Almost 6 times more DSLR cameras shipped than all mirrorless put together { 250 million compared to 43million } Even in Japan the most successful market in the world for mirrorless 65% of models shipping are DSLR, in the worst market for mirroless the USA you are hitting 90% DSLR. These are cold hard facts in black and white from non biased sources.

Jim, your general point about mirrorless sales is absolutely correct (not that it will ever penetrate the many closed minds on this forum).

But you're reading the CIPA data incorrectly. The numbers you cited are value (in 1,000s of yen), not units.

So your numbers are saying that for the first six months of this calendar year worldwide DSLR shipments had a value of 250 million thousand yen (i.e. 250 billion yen, or about 3 billion dollars), and worldwide mirrorless sales had a value of 43 million thousand yen (i.e. 43 billion yen or about 500 million dollars).

Just for context, the greatest sales year ever for interchangeable-lens cameras of all types was calendar year 2012 and the combined worldwide number was 20 million units (16 million DSLRs and 4 million mirrorless). 250 million units would be about 15-20 years worth of production, at recent sales rates. The peak of the consumer point-and-shoot market, in units, was about 130-140 million.

The unit numbers are right above the value numbers in CIPA's charts. So for the first six months of this year, the unit numbers are:

DSLR: 6.3 million units

Mirrorless: 1.3 million units

Percentages of worldwide ILC market share are:

DSLR: 85% by value; 83% by unit

Mirrorless: 15% by value; 17% by unit

Notes: these are factory shipments, which over short time periods (3-6 months), are not exactly the same as consumer sales, although quite close. The figures do not include Samsung's ILC business (the NX line), but it is tiny and might alter the numbers by 1 or 2 percentage points at most.

Thank you for the correction Eamon It is much appreciated I was looking at money numbers while cross talking about unit sales. I guess all the companies would be mighty happy if the money numbers were actually sales numbers :-). That is why my wife does the bookkeeping in our house :-),

My point was supposed to be about money but either way looking at your unit sales data it puts DSLR worldwide sales at 8.3 of every 10 interchangeable cameras sold. With the entire mirrorless market accounting for 1.7 in every 10 interchangeable cameras sold. Do you happen to know how the mirrorless market share breaks down? I presume it is mFT top then Nex

Jim

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nolanr66 New Member • Posts: 1
Re: At which point exactly?

Actually the EM-1 and Em-5 are water sealed, they have a high quality construction inside and out.  The jpeg engine is one of the best ever built.  In 2012 the EM-5 was voted the best camera of the year by photographers.  Basically both of the camera's at the price asked are a bargain.  Fantastic machines for the enthusiast or the professional.

Not everyone wants or needs a gigantor camera to shoot.  Professionals that need a FF sensor just have to live with the old fashioned camera until a mirrorless model in FF comes out.  Sony is supposed to be offering it soon.  Nikon is just doing the Kodak thing and letting the world pass it by for some reason.

Comparing the MFT to the FF IQ makes no sense.  Nobody out there is trying to decide between a FF camera and a MFT camera.  They are totally different things.  However the MFT camera is competing with the APS-C system.  Many people are trying to decide which way to go.  Nikon and Canon have excellent camera's in the old school style and Olympus has it's fully modern offering with features not offered with the APS-C DSLR like awesome jpegs, EVF with it's picture preview, instant focus and 9 or 10 fps..  Mostly unknown to the masses however since they do not advertise much.

Ulric Veteran Member • Posts: 4,398
Re: Omg ..

Sergey_Green wrote:

Ulric wrote:

Much less.

When comparing the large FF to the large MFT, not only is the size smaller, but the price as well. The same goes for the compact FF vs compact MFT comparison.

Right,

Nikon D600 (SLR) Gehäuse (VBA340AE) ab €1418,78

Olympus OM-D E-M1 (EVIL) Gehäuse schwarz (V207010BE000) ab €1499,

So you are happy to pay more for less?

You mean: "So you are happy to pay less for less?" And in this case, paying less money for less bulk is exactly what I have done and I am indeed happy with that choice.

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jim stirling
jim stirling Veteran Member • Posts: 7,356
Re: D7100 v. E-M5 on flickr

lazy lightning wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

They both have about 600 daily users but...E-M5 users have uploaded 250% more photos suggesting that E-M5 users are getting more out of their cameras. I'm also willing to bet that that more E-M5 users have recently purchased lenses than D7100 users.....

Or it could suggest that D7100 users are busy taking photos instead of uploading to flickr. It also might suggest that D7100 users are actually printing their photos which I'm sure is a wonderful experience unlike printing anything above a 4"x6" with M4/3.

Oh dear I have several  excellent 18x12 inch prints from mFT on my wall including some from the almost  ancient 12mp GF1. Better get them hidden before anyone sees them

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jim stirling
jim stirling Veteran Member • Posts: 7,356
Re: Omg ..

Ulric wrote:

Sergey_Green wrote:

Ulric wrote:

Much less.

When comparing the large FF to the large MFT, not only is the size smaller, but the price as well. The same goes for the compact FF vs compact MFT comparison.

Right,

Nikon D600 (SLR) Gehäuse (VBA340AE) ab €1418,78

Olympus OM-D E-M1 (EVIL) Gehäuse schwarz (V207010BE000) ab €1499,

So you are happy to pay more for less?

You mean: "So you are happy to pay less for less?" And in this case, paying less money for less bulk is exactly what I have done and I am indeed happy with that choice.

I see it as paying for different not less , the E-M1 looks to be the best mFT camera to date with an excellent feature set and build quality, that will fit nicely into my combination mFT and FF kit .Different tools for different reasons all good

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