Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line

Started Sep 20, 2013 | Discussions
jim stirling
jim stirling Veteran Member • Posts: 7,356
Re: Missing the mark, somewhat
1

happypoppeye wrote:

TrapperJohn wrote:

Nikon hasn't made any big leaps and bounds since the D3... unless you count the D90's video (a first, building on Oly's live view in the 330)... but that's also true of the dslr in general. It isn't seeing the big leaps and bounds of functionality that were evident in the mid 2000's.

The D7100's greatest competition isn't the EM1. It's the D7000. The D7100 didn't improve on it all that much, so Nikon lost much of their largest potential customer base: D7000 owners. Not so much a Nikon problem as an industry problem. Canon's sales of 5DIII were lower than expected for the same reason - many 5DII owners decided that the improvements didn't justify the expense. In both cases, the global recession didn't help matters any.

Sony... until Sony learns how and especially why to build good lenses, and lots of them, they'll remain a perennial also-ran. It's the most common reason people choose µ43 over NEX: not much glass, and what little they have is quite large.

What Nikon faces is what any camera company heavily vested in the dslr design faces: stagnation. The design has been pushed about as far as it can go. Sensor tech is at the point where further improvement does not yield much in the way of tangible results under typical photo circumstances, so the large sensor advantage isn't nearly what it once was. The optical viewfinder might get better with digital overlays, but it's expensive to do that, and still doesn't deliver the preview and review modes of the EVF. The only real improvement that can be made is - size. And the dslr's VF, legacy film lens mount and registration distance limit how much it can be improved there.

The dslr has also lost the enthusiasm and excitement that drove much of it's booming sales in the 2000's. Where are those great leaps and bounds happening today? Right here. Look at the dpr top ten clicked list today: two high end compacts, three dslr's, and five mirrorless. Including one, the EM5, that's been on that list since January, 2012.

Perhaps you should look at the top selling cameras in each area to see what is actually selling clicks on DPreview do nothing for the balance book.

There is exactly one mFT camera in the top 50 sellers in Amazon USA

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_hi_3?rh=n%3A172282%2Cn%3A!493964%2Cn%3A502394%2Cn%3A281052&ie=UTF8&qid=1379776702

In the UK not even one mFT makes it into the top 75 selling cameras

http://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=sr_pg_1?rh=n%3A560798%2Cn%3A!560800%2Cn%3A560834%2Cn%3A560836&ie=UTF8&qid=1379776931

What about Japan surely mFT will be wiping the floor with its huge oversized DSLR rivals , one mFT in the top 20, 6 out of the top 10 selling models are DSLR’S

http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking&view=all

For a more complete overview have a look through the CIPA that show all cameras shipped from Japan .Here are the total numbers for the first 6 months of the year

http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201306_e.pdf

Almost 6 times more DSLR cameras shipped than all mirrorless put together { 250 million compared to 43million } Even in Japan the most successful market in the world for mirrorless 65% of models shipping are DSLR, in the worst market for mirroless the USA you are hitting 90% DSLR. These are cold hard facts in black and white from non biased sources.

That enthusiasm may not be reflected directly in current sales, but it's pretty unambiguous handwriting on the wall. That's where things are headed.

How about some wide primes? The one point I disagree with on your post is that the "design has been pushed about as far as it can go". m43 has many short end primes ...Nikon/Canon have none, zip, nadda, zero. Nothing under a 36mm equivalent.

We have the 12mm F2 ,which does the same job as a 16mm F2.8mm on Nikon APS, regards wide primes you have the 10.5mm F2.8 fish eye , the wider 14mm F2.8 and 16mm f2.8 all from Nikon, then you have the independents , including the rather cheap Samyang 14mmF2.8. The problem is not that the lenses don't exist they clearly do the problem is they are typically FF designs and therefore much larger than they need to be.

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TrapperJohn Forum Pro • Posts: 16,488
That's what I see
3

C/N, like any successful company, promotes managers and strategists who rose to fame on the last successful formula. So did IBM. And Microsoft. And RIM/Blackberry. It affects their strategic thinking more than one might expect. In the case of C/N, the successful formula was the DSLR, which made them a ton of money in the 2000's.

Never was this blind thinking more evident in C/N's mirrorless ventures.

Nikon brought out the One, crippled so as not to compete with their own DSLR's. When Canon went after mirrorless, they designed a system to beat the One, because Nikon is the only competitor they have considered for a very long time. Trouble for Canon was - every other mirrorless system beat the One, too, and the EOS-M, in a variety of areas.

It may sound silly to say that high ranking, highly paid strategists would overlook something that obvious, but there you have it.

The Canon SL1 is not a mirrorless competitor. Canon owners claim it is, but it is not. It still has a DSLR registration distance and DSLR image circle, so it's fat, and it still has DSLR size lenses, which are not small, or if they're small, they are slow, low IQ kit grade glass - no match for the better µ43 glass.

I believe we have more than one ex-SL1 owner here, who found that building a truly compact system is a lot more than trimming down the sides and the top of the body.

jim stirling
jim stirling Veteran Member • Posts: 7,356
Re: Missing the mark, somewhat
1

dgrogers wrote:

jim stirling wrote:

I think your signature line rather clearly explains why you think this to be a reasonable action Though to put it into your political comparison it would be akin from going to one county and asking people there to sign up for living in another county just to sway a vote.

I have no doubt Scotland has its share of outside influence when it comes to elections. The US certainly does.

Dodgy politicians is the one thing that unites all countries and all men

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Completely infatuated with the "OMG"

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jim stirling
jim stirling Veteran Member • Posts: 7,356
Re: That's what I see
4

TrapperJohn wrote:

C/N, like any successful company, promotes managers and strategists who rose to fame on the last successful formula. So did IBM. And Microsoft. And RIM/Blackberry. It affects their strategic thinking more than one might expect. In the case of C/N, the successful formula was the DSLR, which made them a ton of money in the 2000's.

Never was this blind thinking more evident in C/N's mirrorless ventures.

Nikon brought out the One, crippled so as not to compete with their own DSLR's. When Canon went after mirrorless, they designed a system to beat the One, because Nikon is the only competitor they have considered for a very long time. Trouble for Canon was - every other mirrorless system beat the One, too, and the EOS-M, in a variety of areas.

It may sound silly to say that high ranking, highly paid strategists would overlook something that obvious, but there you have it.

The Canon SL1 is not a mirrorless competitor. Canon owners claim it is, but it is not. It still has a DSLR registration distance and DSLR image circle, so it's fat, and it still has DSLR size lenses, which are not small, or if they're small, they are slow, low IQ kit grade glass - no match for the better µ43 glass.

I believe we have more than one ex-SL1 owner here, who found that building a truly compact system is a lot more than trimming down the sides and the top of the body.

Looking at the real sales data I am not sure that it is Nikon and Canon that should be living in fear

USA

There is exactly one mFT camera in the top 50 sellers in Amazon USA

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_hi_3?rh=n%3A172282%2Cn%3A!493964%2Cn%3A502394%2Cn%3A281052&ie=UTF8&qid=1379776702

UK

In the UK not even one mFT makes it into the top 75 selling cameras

http://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=sr_pg_1?rh=n%3A560798%2Cn%3A!560800%2Cn%3A560834%2Cn%3A560836&ie=UTF8&qid=1379776931

JAPAN

What about Japan surely mFT will be wiping the floor with its huge oversized DSLR rivals , one mFT in the top 20, 6 out of the top 10 selling models are DSLR’S

http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking&view=all

The total data:

For a more complete overview have a look through the CIPA that show all cameras shipped from Japan .Here are the total numbers for the first 6 months of the year

http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201306_e.pdf

Almost 6 times more DSLR cameras shipped than all mirrorless put together { 250 million compared to 43million } Even in Japan the most successful market in the world for mirrorless 65% of models shipping are DSLR, in the worst market for mirroless the USA you are hitting 90% DSLR. These are cold hard facts in black and white from non biased sources.

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rrr_hhh Veteran Member • Posts: 6,022
Re: I am not really sure if they are skimming the cream either ..

jim stirling wrote:

rrr_hhh wrote:

Sergey_Green wrote:

Sean Nelson wrote:

justmeMN wrote:

If Olympus had been aggressive in pricing, the D7100 would have been toast this Christmas.

Oh please. Here (USA), Olympus can't even get their product on store shelves, and have virtually no advertising.

I think that getting stock into stores is the bigger half of the problem. If they price the cameras competitively then I think retailers would be a lot more inclined to stock them. But right now it seems like Panasonic and Olympus are both skimming the cream from the enthusiasts who are willing to pay a premium for their gear.

Here in EU ( and forget about dX )

Nikon D600 (SLR) Gehäuse (VBA340AE) ab €1418,78

Olympus OM-D E-M1 (EVIL) Gehäuse schwarz (V207010BE000) ab €1499,

Canon EOS 6D (SLR) Gehäuse (8035B022) ab €1515,04

I already asked the same question somewhere else, what would you buy for the same money;

  1. the camera that is easier to carry
  2. the camera that will take better images

Many, and those who know what to do with it, take the second option. And so the stores are hardly making any profits on the first. In fact, Olympus imaging division themselves have been losing money for quite some time now, and OM-D is not helping much either.

It isn't as simple as you make it : the real question is how much more weight and bulk people will accept for the marginal IQ they would gain and that marginal IQ increase (which many people didn't really need) comes along with a huge size/weight increase (often the total gear weight is twice as heavy).

To be fair that same argument can be put forward for one camera solutions such as the RX100 which is notably closer in sensor performance to the E-M5 than the E-M5 is to the D800e {all selected for being best in each sensor size} The RX100 has almost exactly the same colour depth and DR as the E-M5 while being a fraction over one stop poorer in high ISO. The D800 on the other hand has a full 2.8 stops colour depth advantage along with, 2 stops DR and 1.7 stops high ISO advantage over the E-M5 along with the extra resolution, I think I would say that is more than a marginal gain.

isn't the RX100 a fixed lens camera ?

As for marginal gain, eachone values it differently. I happen to use Canons, so my marginal increase is surely less than those having state of the art sensors. Still, there is a bigger leap when you go from very small sensors (iPhone or the smaller entry level compacts) to MFT than going from MFT to FF (especially if it is a Canon FF like mine). Frankly, the E-M5 is at least as good as my Canon 5D1 (indeed it has a better DR), but would you say that going from the 5D1 to the 6D the marginal gain in IQ is phenomenal ? Digital sensors have made such progress that seeing gains like between the E-P3 and the E-M5 is very rare. IMO the improvement you get between an older 12meg Panasonic sensor and the new E-M5 sensor was more important than the improvement I see between the 5D1 and the 6D.

http://www.dxomark.com/index.php/Cameras/Compare-Camera-Sensors/Compare-cameras-side-by-side/%28appareil1%29/812|0/%28brand%29/Sony/%28appareil2%29/793|0/%28brand2%29/Olympus/%28appareil3%29/814|0/%28brand3%29/Nikon

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rrr_hhh

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dgrogers Veteran Member • Posts: 7,079
Re: That's what I see

What were those numbers 5 years ago?

jim stirling wrote:

Looking at the real sales data I am not sure that it is Nikon and Canon that should be living in fear

USA

There is exactly one mFT camera in the top 50 sellers in Amazon USA

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_hi_3?rh=n%3A172282%2Cn%3A!493964%2Cn%3A502394%2Cn%3A281052&ie=UTF8&qid=1379776702

UK

In the UK not even one mFT makes it into the top 75 selling cameras

http://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=sr_pg_1?rh=n%3A560798%2Cn%3A!560800%2Cn%3A560834%2Cn%3A560836&ie=UTF8&qid=1379776931

JAPAN

What about Japan surely mFT will be wiping the floor with its huge oversized DSLR rivals , one mFT in the top 20, 6 out of the top 10 selling models are DSLR’S

http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking&view=all

The total data:

For a more complete overview have a look through the CIPA that show all cameras shipped from Japan .Here are the total numbers for the first 6 months of the year

http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201306_e.pdf

Almost 6 times more DSLR cameras shipped than all mirrorless put together { 250 million compared to 43million } Even in Japan the most successful market in the world for mirrorless 65% of models shipping are DSLR, in the worst market for mirroless the USA you are hitting 90% DSLR. These are cold hard facts in black and white from non biased sources.

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Completely infatuated with the "OMG"

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technic Veteran Member • Posts: 8,932
Re: And I was wondering ..
1

rrr_hhh wrote:

you have postponed the debate : the original poster was speaking of APSC format. Hence my reference to the marginal increase in IQ. Also for those shooting Canon whose cameras don't have the best sensor, yes the IQ increase is marginal. You get twice the weight but far less than twice the IQ, and if you are going for those heavy fast zooms and lenses, I bet the weight would be three time as much.

ever compared a Canon SL1 including standard zoom with the E-M5 or E-M1? It's almost the same size and weight ...

Yes, those FF 2.8/70-200IS zooms on APS-C are huge, but first of all they are FF lenses and secondly, there isn't much to compare on m43.

One excellent example of how this can work out in real life is a bright tele lens like the 2.8/300. The latest one from Canon is one of the best lenses on the planet, it covers FF size sensor, has superfast AF and excellent IS and it is LIGHTER than the 2.8/300 43 lens from Olympus that is quite good probably, but doesn't even have IS. So the Canon offers several times more sensor coverage (light gathering) in a smaller, lighter and far more practical package.

Now some m43 users are going to complain that the Oly 2.8/300 is really a 2.8/600 (or so ...), but I know what I would prefer.

justmeMN Veteran Member • Posts: 5,485
Canon
1

Is Canon going to take mirrorless seriously?

Globally, mirrorless cameras aren't selling very well, so I guess Canon doesn't feel much pressure to quickly excel in that area.

Canon has the necessary technology, so they aren't really falling behind. Canon has their Dual Pixel CMOS AF sensor, which they will continue to improve. Canon makes things like an US$8,000 camcorder and CinemaEOS cameras, so they must know how to make good EVFs.

And Canon may expand their SL1/100D line, as an alternative to mirrorless.

technic Veteran Member • Posts: 8,932
Re: Missing the mark, somewhat

jim stirling wrote:

How about some wide primes? The one point I disagree with on your post is that the "design has been pushed about as far as it can go". m43 has many short end primes ...Nikon/Canon have none, zip, nadda, zero. Nothing under a 36mm equivalent.

We have the 12mm F2 ,which does the same job as a 16mm F2.8mm on Nikon APS, regards wide primes you have the 10.5mm F2.8 fish eye , the wider 14mm F2.8 and 16mm f2.8 all from Nikon, then you have the independents , including the rather cheap Samyang 14mmF2.8. The problem is not that the lenses don't exist they clearly do the problem is they are typically FF designs and therefore much larger than they need to be.

Agree, and some of this is related to price as well. For a company like Canon, a 3.5/10-22 zoom is probably just as expensive to manufacture as e.g. a good 3.5/15mm, but they can sell many more copies of the zoom. Keep in mind that a good WA zoom on APS-C is often cheaper than a good WA prime on m43 ...

Unfortunately, it seems the market for compact (super)wide primes on APS-C is too small for the lens companies. On the other side, on m43 there are hardly any equivalents to the many bright and often very high quality WA primes on FF (1.4/24, 1.8/28, 1.4/35 etc.).
The DSLR mirrorbox makes it impossible to make a really compact SWA prime (relatively bulky retrofocus design required). However, the pancake (S)WA primes on mirrorless are usually not the best quality (in the corners).

Both systems have their strengths and weaknesses.

Leandros S Senior Member • Posts: 1,970
Re: Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line
2

wildlifr wrote:

Just trying to be provocative. In reality, Sigma stepped up big time with dx lenses, and while they used to be known as a budget lens maker, that's not the case anymore. They make incredible quality lenses at much lower prices than Nikon. Not to mention Tokina and Tamron. Aside from that, what's recommended to dx users is to buy fx lenses so that if/when the move to FF happens, you don't have to rebuy lenses.

Not that tired old thing about upgrade paths again!

OP sderdiarian Veteran Member • Posts: 4,229
Re: That's what I see

jim stirling wrote:

TrapperJohn wrote:

The Canon SL1 is not a mirrorless competitor. Canon owners claim it is, but it is not. It still has a DSLR registration distance and DSLR image circle, so it's fat, and it still has DSLR size lenses, which are not small, or if they're small, they are slow, low IQ kit grade glass - no match for the better µ43 glass.

I believe we have more than one ex-SL1 owner here, who found that building a truly compact system is a lot more than trimming down the sides and the top of the body.

Yes.  Repeat after me, it's  not the body alone, it's the system .  As for the SL1, it's one fat little piggie, and with a long zoom mounted, verging I think on the comical:

http://j.mp/1dyCz6F

What lengths they'll go to in maintaining the charade that they can compete on size, but give them credit if buyers swallow the bait.


Almost 6 times more DSLR cameras shipped than all mirrorless put together { 250 million compared to 43million }

So, mirrorless is within shooting distance of carving out 20% of DSLR sales, this despite Canon and Nikon's already described advantages in big box sales, brand recognition and advertising budgets.  And this in a system introduced and built from scratch less than five years ago (G-1 in Jan. '09, E-P1 in July '09).

It's always difficult to see a watershed event when it's occurring, but everyone accepts it as obvious after the fact.  I feel credit is due to Thom for calling attention to this while it's taking place, but then, I agree with him .

And thank you all for a civil conversation.  We have some clearly divided views, but it has remained interesting through-out.

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Sailin' Steve

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Leandros S Senior Member • Posts: 1,970
Recession explains nearly all of it, actually

TrapperJohn wrote:

Nikon hasn't made any big leaps and bounds since the D3... unless you count the D90's video (a first, building on Oly's live view in the 330)... but that's also true of the dslr in general. It isn't seeing the big leaps and bounds of functionality that were evident in the mid 2000's.

The D7100's greatest competition isn't the EM1. It's the D7000. The D7100 didn't improve on it all that much, so Nikon lost much of their largest potential customer base: D7000 owners. Not so much a Nikon problem as an industry problem. Canon's sales of 5DIII were lower than expected for the same reason - many 5DII owners decided that the improvements didn't justify the expense. In both cases, the global recession didn't help matters any.

Sony... until Sony learns how and especially why to build good lenses, and lots of them, they'll remain a perennial also-ran. It's the most common reason people choose µ43 over NEX: not much glass, and what little they have is quite large.

What Nikon faces is what any camera company heavily vested in the dslr design faces: stagnation. The design has been pushed about as far as it can go. Sensor tech is at the point where further improvement does not yield much in the way of tangible results under typical photo circumstances, so the large sensor advantage isn't nearly what it once was. The optical viewfinder might get better with digital overlays, but it's expensive to do that, and still doesn't deliver the preview and review modes of the EVF. The only real improvement that can be made is - size. And the dslr's VF, legacy film lens mount and registration distance limit how much it can be improved there.

The dslr has also lost the enthusiasm and excitement that drove much of it's booming sales in the 2000's. Where are those great leaps and bounds happening today? Right here. Look at the dpr top ten clicked list today: two high end compacts, three dslr's, and five mirrorless. Including one, the EM5, that's been on that list since January, 2012.

That enthusiasm may not be reflected directly in current sales, but it's pretty unambiguous handwriting on the wall. That's where things are headed.

You mention the recession and stagnation in technological development. You could have really stopped there. The rule for any company affected by the recession is to cut back expenses and try to survive, with usually no clear prediction of how long the recession will go on for.

So it's not surprising that the technological leaps and bounds haven't been coming quite the same. Nokia Lumia 1020's counter-example notwithstanding. The desktop/laptop/server CPU industry, by contrast, started hitting the wall technologically well before the recession. The flip-side is that innovation doesn't always drive in one direction only - if you measure the world by whether it still adheres to Moore's Law or not, you might be missing the subtler progress happening elsewhere.

The next priority for camera makers is to have attractive products coming out of the recession, and to be the brand that people flock to once they've had three to six months of solid pay-cheques again. Not an easy juggling act, but it favours the companies that were going strong going into the recession, i.e. Nikon and Canon.

YouDidntDidYou
YouDidntDidYou Senior Member • Posts: 1,576
Re: That's what I see

Amazon UK is a tiny player in online camera sales in the UK, due to strong competition from decent, competitive, informative and attractive websites that don't have a problem paying UK tax.

Mirrorless in theUK has near 30% of the interchangeable lens camera segment.

TrapperJohn Forum Pro • Posts: 16,488
Careful with those numbers
1

Amazon figures are misleading, as they are divided up by individual model. That includes all variations of color and lens combination. Because most µ43 cameras are sold in multiple colors, the EM5 is about even between silver and black plus four variations on kit lens package, while most dslr's tend to be sold in black, the single top selling models do not paint an accurate picture of Amazon sales. The almost always black dslr looks better. An accurate picture would require one to manually sum up every possible variation of every model.

Amazon is also reporting delays in shipping the EM1 due to an overload of preorders.

CIPA numbers are very deceptive to the uninitiated. They are shipments from mfgr to distributors, and reflect what the mfgr and the distributor believe they will be able to sell. That is at best a very indirect association with what the public is actually buying. CIPA numbers don't reflect the firesales going on right now for the EOS-M and the Panny GX1.  Both are selling decently thanks to rock bottom prices, while they appear in CIPA numbers some time last year, when the stock was originally shipped.

What I see as another indirect, but longer term factor, is the fact that mirrorless has just about caught the dslr in terms of useable IQ and MP, while it has all the excitement and rapid technical development going on, especially compared to the somewhat stagnant dslr.

That shouldn't be underestimated, as it was excitement over rapid technical development that drove much of the dslr boom of the 2000's, whether any of us care to admit it or not. Technical wizardry might seem like a shallow reason to get interested in a camera, but there are entire industries based upon rather shallow concepts: the fashion industry depends on it.

What I do know is that 1041 is one of the busiest forums here, and dpr enthusiasts are studying mirrorless reviews far more than dslr reviews, as evidenced by the dpr top ten review click list.

Mark Thornton Veteran Member • Posts: 3,610
Re: Careful with those numbers

TrapperJohn wrote:

What I do know is that 1041 is one of the busiest forums here, and dpr enthusiasts are studying mirrorless reviews far more than dslr reviews, as evidenced by the dpr top ten review click list.

Though there seem to be a significant number of contributors who neither have m4/3 equipment nor any intention of doing so.

Mark

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YouDidntDidYou
YouDidntDidYou Senior Member • Posts: 1,576
Re: Missing the mark, somewhat
1

Same was being done on Nikon forums but hey they were still asleep at the wheel or arrogant and over confident...

MichaelKJ Veteran Member • Posts: 3,466
Re: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line is NIL.
1

rrr_hhh wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

sderdiarian wrote:

Cipher wrote:

sderdiarian wrote:

"Olympus' E-M1 and high-performance lenses are going to start cutting further into the top of Nikon's DX line. I warned several years ago about what neglecting the DX lens line was going to do. Well, it's happened. E-M1 users have fast 24-80mm, 80-300mm equivalents, and fast 24mm, 35mm, 50mm, 90mm, and 150mm prime equivalents to choose from, and the whole m4/3 system is now properly scaled as the smallest and lightest enthusiast system with excellent performance. If Olympus had been aggressive in pricing, the D7100 would have been toast this Christmas. Even with Olympus' pricing, a lot of folk are experiencing a strong temptation to pay more for less (size and weight)."

A good read: http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/whither-nikon.html

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Sailin' Steve

The Nikon FF D600/D610 will have more of an impact than m4/3 on the top end DX bodies. Even if Olympus priced the E-M1 the same as the D7100, people are just more comfortable buying a camera from the two big names (Canon and Nikon). The fact that retailers don't really push m4/3 doesn't help either.

I don't think it's as bad as Thom paints it, but FF is not for everyone as it pushes gear prices up and makes for a heavy kit to lug about if one takes along multiple lenses. On the other hand, the D7100 is, however, still a fine camera for its price and Nikon has some quality, reasonably affordable lenses to compliment it.

But, I think Thom's correct on Christmas sales: the D7100 is now yesterday's news while the E-M1 is fresh and packs in a lot of features (further improved 5-axis IBIS in particular). It also appears to have closed the gap significantly on tracking, and can now fast AF with such great and affordable lenses as the 12-60mm f2.8-4 and 50-200mm f2.8-3.5. As he notes, combine the E-M1 with the fast primes and you also have the perfect small and light (only marginally larger and heavier than the E-M5) pro-build kit that you can easily take anywhere.

The E-M1 is currently 194th on AmazonUS Camera & Photo best sellers list while the D7100 is 106th.

The best selling E-M5 configuration is 1,609 in Camera & Photo on Amazon.

In Japan, the best selling D7100 configuration (with the 18-200) is 21st in BCN's rankings of DSLR/ILC sales, while the best selling E-M5 configuration is 111th. It would appear that the E-M5 has become "yesterday's news" much faster in both Japan and the US than the D7100.

I realize that you can argue that things would be different if Olympus had set the price lower for the E-M1. However, the D7100 is still a very popular camera and the notion that a camera such as the E-M1 could seriously hurt Nikon's sales in the near future are far fetched (IMO).

Many were taken by surprise by how well the E-M5 sold and that it won DPR's reader's choice award. Had Olympus priced the E-M1 to match the D7100, I think they'd have another runaway success on their hands this holiday season. People do read reviews and don't have to see the cameras in a big box store to buy them, as the E-M5 proved.

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Sailin' Steve

That is just a reflection of the global market share of the big two. That is not likely to change in a short lapse of time. However, look at DPreview home page : the E-M5 almost never left the top ten of the number of specs/ review clicks. It isn't only due to the recent announcement of the E-M1 and people wanting to compare it. It has been so during all the summer. Yet the body is now more than a year and a half old (it was announced in February 2012) and is still getting around 2.5% of the clicks.

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rrr_hhh

It would be great if DPR clicks accurately reflected sales. However, my impression is that the percentage of m4/3 owners who participate on DPR is much greater than the percentage of Canikon owners. For example, the oldest thread on the first page of this forum right now was posted 18 hours ago and 16 threads have most recent comments less than one hour old.  On the Nikon DX forum there are 9 threads less than one hour old and 18 that are one day old. One obviously can't infer from this that m4/3 cameras are outselling all of the Nikon DX cameras.

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TrapperJohn Forum Pro • Posts: 16,488
I think Thom may be overstating a bit

But clearly, there are changes coming. They're already here. Think back to film, been with us for over a century, was still going strong in the 90's... gone in less than a decade.

I don't think C/N will fail like RIM just did, definitely won't go away, but if they aren't careful, they may end up tarnishing their image as the photographic leaders. Brands like that tend to have a 'get out of jail free' card from their loyal customers as regards missteps. C/N just used theirs. Their next mirrorless effort had better be good, real good.

I do know that I've had a ball with the little EM5. Haven't enjoyed a new camera this much for a very long time. Even just that sense of childlike wonder and amazement, when I pulled it out of the box for the first time - it's so small, and it's such a jewel. Nice to find that in use, it backed up that first impression with the boost in DR, the killer IBIS, and a few other things. Heck, the EVF was pretty darn good, and I was concerned about that.

CSC is here to stay, and it's where all the really interesting things in photography are happening.

fotowbert
fotowbert Senior Member • Posts: 2,553
More correct sensor area comparison

rrr_hhh wrote:

With respect to IQ, what matters is the sensor area (supposing everything is equal) and APSC is only 30% bigger than MFT sensors. Since the lens offering is far from stellar for the NEX, the difference could well be columned by the superior lenses line. And don't forget the extraordinary 5axes IBIS. In the end I'm nit sure whether the IQ would be very different between the two systems.

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rrr_hhh

Sensor area comparison

MFT 225 mm2

Canon APSC 329 mm2  46% more than MFT

Nikon APSC 370 mm2  64% more than MFT

Not sure how you get "only 30% bigger than MFT sensors"

  • John
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rhlpetrus Forum Pro • Posts: 24,858
Really? Re: Missing the mark, somewhat
1

TrapperJohn wrote:


The dslr has also lost the enthusiasm and excitement that drove much of it's booming sales in the 2000's. Where are those great leaps and bounds happening today? Right here. Look at the dpr top ten clicked list today: two high end compacts, three dslr's, and five mirrorless. Including one, the EM5, that's been on that list since January, 2012.

Check mft and nex sales in the US and Europe and compare them to Canon and Nikon dslrs.

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Renato.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rhlpedrosa/
OnExposure member
http://www.onexposure.net/
Good shooting and good luck
(after Ed Murrow)

 rhlpetrus's gear list:rhlpetrus's gear list
Leica D-Lux (Typ 109) Nikon D7000 Nikon 1 V1 Nikon AF-S DX Nikkor 12-24mm f/4G ED-IF Nikon AF Nikkor 35mm f/2D +4 more
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