Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line

Started Sep 20, 2013 | Discussions
Sergey_Green
Sergey_Green Forum Pro • Posts: 10,371
How do you know it?
1

sderdiarian wrote:


Many were taken by surprise by how well the E-M5 sold and that it won DPR's reader's choice award. Had Olympus priced the E-M1 to match the D7100, I think they'd have another runaway success on their hands this holiday season. People do read reviews and don't have to see the cameras in a big box store to buy them, as the E-M5 proved.

Did it really sell well, or you think it sold well ?

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Sean Nelson
Sean Nelson Forum Pro • Posts: 12,531
Re: Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line
3

justmeMN wrote:

If Olympus had been aggressive in pricing, the D7100 would have been toast this Christmas.

Oh please. Here (USA), Olympus can't even get their product on store shelves, and have virtually no advertising.

I think that getting stock into stores is the bigger half of the problem.   If they price the cameras competitively then I think retailers would be a lot more inclined to stock them.   But right now it seems like Panasonic and Olympus are both skimming the cream from the enthusiasts who are willing to pay a premium for their gear.

Sergey_Green
Sergey_Green Forum Pro • Posts: 10,371
I am not really sure if they are skimming the cream either ..
3

Sean Nelson wrote:

justmeMN wrote:

If Olympus had been aggressive in pricing, the D7100 would have been toast this Christmas.

Oh please. Here (USA), Olympus can't even get their product on store shelves, and have virtually no advertising.

I think that getting stock into stores is the bigger half of the problem. If they price the cameras competitively then I think retailers would be a lot more inclined to stock them. But right now it seems like Panasonic and Olympus are both skimming the cream from the enthusiasts who are willing to pay a premium for their gear.

Here in EU ( and forget about dX )

Nikon D600 (SLR) Gehäuse (VBA340AE) ab €1418,78

Olympus OM-D E-M1 (EVIL) Gehäuse schwarz (V207010BE000) ab €1499,

Canon EOS 6D (SLR) Gehäuse (8035B022) ab €1515,04

I already asked the same question somewhere else, what would you buy for the same money;

  1. the camera that is easier to carry
  2. the camera that will take better images

Many, and those who know what to do with it, take the second option. And so the stores are hardly making any profits on the first. In fact, Olympus imaging division themselves have been losing money for quite some time now, and OM-D is not helping much either.

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cameron2 Veteran Member • Posts: 3,029
Re: Always been a problem with CaNikon
2

rovingtim wrote:

tinternaut wrote:

Olympus and Panasonic develop lenses for one format only.

uhhhh, only true because Oly just dropped 4/3rds.

They stopped developing lenses for 4/3s at least 5 years ago.

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Anderton Contributing Member • Posts: 663
Re: Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line

duartix wrote:

Anderton wrote:

A colleague who shoots everything with his Canon 7D has spent $10k on his gear is looking towards migrating to NEX in the next year or so when the sensor and lens line up has matured.

If he's looking for a mature lens system why go NEX? Does he need the extra mega pixels?

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Duarte Bruno

Sensor size for landscapes and night time shooting.

Zenjitsuman Contributing Member • Posts: 793
Re: Always been a problem with CaNikon
1

Hogan is right that Nikon didn't invest in DX lenses.  I had been using a D70 before I got a D7100

and at that time Nikon only made DX cameras.  For the record the D7100 is smaller than the D70

its the lenses that are too big.  I also, have been using my film lenses, like the big 70-200 vrI afs.

Its almost a foot long with lens hood.  My 85mm f1.4 is big.

Since I bought my D7100, I got some new lenses most are not DX Nikons, and third party

lens makers like Tokina for 11-16mm and the Sigma Art lens line are cleaning up on Nikon

because they have filled the lack of exciting affordable lenses where Nikon has abdicated

DX product for their customers to these 3rd party lens makers.

One note, I own Nex equipment, and the OM ep5 and I just want to say that the main

reason M 4/3 and to a lessor extent DX/ APS-c is a tough sell for some people is the OOF

background separation requires at least one wider F stop for DX and maybe 2 extra stops

faster M 4/3 lenses.  That is why I use F1.4 portrait lens on DX and will eventually get

the Sigma 18-35mm for its record breaking F1.8 max F Stop, which just brings it parity

with the FF F2.8 pro constant aperture lenses.

On M 4/3 the size advantage makes it a great coat pocket camera, but that 2 stop disadvantage

in OOF great Bokeh makes me switch to my Nikon gear when I need that look.

I use no lenses slower than F2.8, which means using expensive lenses that weigh a lot

if FF and even faster APS-C and M 4/3 lenses.

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Sean Nelson
Sean Nelson Forum Pro • Posts: 12,531
Re: I am not really sure if they are skimming the cream either ..

Sergey_Green wrote:

Sean Nelson wrote:

justmeMN wrote:

If Olympus had been aggressive in pricing, the D7100 would have been toast this Christmas.

Oh please. Here (USA), Olympus can't even get their product on store shelves, and have virtually no advertising.

...right now it seems like Panasonic and Olympus are both skimming the cream from the enthusiasts who are willing to pay a premium for their gear.

I already asked the same question somewhere else, what would you buy for the same money;
  1. the camera that is easier to carry
  2. the camera that will take better images

Many, and those who know what to do with it, take the second option.

But there really is a market for the first option, and there are a lot fewer choices in that space.   There are a ton of APS-C cameras on one side, and pretty much only the Nikon 1 on the other side - that leaves nobody but Panasonic and Olympus in the middle.   So right now M43 occupies it's own market niche, and there seems to be enough demand at that point in the spectrum to allow Panny and Oly to maintain their current high prices.

photofan1986
photofan1986 Senior Member • Posts: 2,993
Re: Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line

Just a criticism on the layout of the site of your link...

We are using wide screens more and more often, and websites layout is becoming more and more vertical. Can anyone explains this to me? Like DPR... I'm using a 16/9 screen, and I'm using maybe one third of the panel to view the forum. How it this? Am I supposed to rotate my screen vertically ?

The article may be interesting, but it's a real PITA to read.

Sorry for the OoT.

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rrr_hhh Veteran Member • Posts: 6,022
Re: Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line

Anderton wrote:

duartix wrote:

Anderton wrote:

A colleague who shoots everything with his Canon 7D has spent $10k on his gear is looking towards migrating to NEX in the next year or so when the sensor and lens line up has matured.

If he's looking for a mature lens system why go NEX? Does he need the extra mega pixels?

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Duarte Bruno

Sensor size for landscapes and night time shooting.

With respect to IQ, what matters is the sensor area (supposing everything is equal) and APSC is only 30% bigger than MFT sensors. Since the lens offering is far from stellar for the NEX, the difference could well be columned by the superior lenses line. And don't forget the extraordinary 5axes IBIS. In the end I'm nit sure whether the IQ would be very different between the two systems.

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rrr_hhh

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rrr_hhh Veteran Member • Posts: 6,022
Re: I am not really sure if they are skimming the cream either ..
2

Sergey_Green wrote:

Sean Nelson wrote:

justmeMN wrote:

If Olympus had been aggressive in pricing, the D7100 would have been toast this Christmas.

Oh please. Here (USA), Olympus can't even get their product on store shelves, and have virtually no advertising.

I think that getting stock into stores is the bigger half of the problem. If they price the cameras competitively then I think retailers would be a lot more inclined to stock them. But right now it seems like Panasonic and Olympus are both skimming the cream from the enthusiasts who are willing to pay a premium for their gear.

Here in EU ( and forget about dX )

Nikon D600 (SLR) Gehäuse (VBA340AE) ab €1418,78

Olympus OM-D E-M1 (EVIL) Gehäuse schwarz (V207010BE000) ab €1499,

Canon EOS 6D (SLR) Gehäuse (8035B022) ab €1515,04

I already asked the same question somewhere else, what would you buy for the same money;

  1. the camera that is easier to carry
  2. the camera that will take better images

Many, and those who know what to do with it, take the second option. And so the stores are hardly making any profits on the first. In fact, Olympus imaging division themselves have been losing money for quite some time now, and OM-D is not helping much either.

It isn't as simple as you make it : the real question is how much more weight and bulk people will accept for the marginal IQ they would gain and that marginal IQ increase (which many people didn't really need) comes along with a huge size/weight increase (often the total gear weight is twice as heavy).

And yes : some people are willing to pay more (or the same amount) for less. And it is way less in bulk and wheight but very few less in IQ and possibilities.

And I'm using both a FF and MFT.

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rrr_hhh

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trac63 Contributing Member • Posts: 709
Re: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line - probably not in the USA market
3

sderdiarian wrote:

kodachromeguy wrote:

Everything Thom wrote is logical for photography enthusiasts. But as for the mass market in USA, Joe and Jane Suburban:

1. Know the two big names, Canon and Nikon.

2. Seldom see 4/3 cameras in big box stores and the few they see are not emphasized by salespeople.

3. Have a neighbor or relative who bought Nikon or Canon when he "became serious" about photography. Joe and Jane will buy the same for social acceptability among their peer group.

4. Do not care about all that large f-stop technical mumbo jumbo and are not interested in buying big full frame lenses - in fact will only buy the one kit lens and possibly a cheap, small aperture zoom lens.

5. Can buy a Nikon DSLR with kit lens cheap. That is a key factor for them.

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The Kodachromeguy

All good points, and they've been largely accurate.

But as smartphones cull more and more Joe & Jane's from the buying pool, people only superficially interested in photography in the first place, cameras like the E-M1 will, I think, become the new paradigm for enthusiasts who mine the internet for trends in technology.

Seeing it side by side with the bulky D7100, and understanding its better build quality and, for all practical purposes, equivalent IQ, and then adding in the compact mFT primes and 5-axis IBIS, my sense is were Nikon emblazoned on its body instead of Olympus, it would be taking the market by storm.

Well, the E-M5 does sell in big box stores here in Canada, and I gotta call "BS" on all of the above.

Maybe Olympus has taken a big step forward in build quality with the E-M1, but I cannot imagine too many Average Joes trying out both the E-M5 and D7100 and deciding that the E-M5 is built to a higher standard. The E-M5 may be advertised as all-metal construction, but the display panel and the control knobs are all inexpensive plastic, and the buttons on the back are all very tiny and mushy (and also inexpensive plastic). It just feels a lot less solid than the D7100, and it's not even close.

It's also simply not the case that the E-M1 has resolution and noise levels "equivalent" to the D7100. Just look at DPReview's own test chart:

http://www.dpreview.com/previews/olympus-om-d-e-m1/9

Set the comparison tool to ISO 6400 and RAW, and you can see that the Nikon is clearly preserving more detail (look at the radial targets and the text in the centre panel). The difference isn't night and day, but it's there.

The IBIS thing is not a slam-dunk game-changer either. There is no shortage of VR-enabled lenses for the Nikon F-mount, and lens-based VR/IS has historically been more effective than the sensor-shift variety anyway. There's also all kinds of F-mount lenses that stop up to f/1.4 and don't need it because pretty well all the newer APS-C cameras are good through ISO3200 and beyond. And VR/IS only helps you with still subjects.

I would also submit that once you get into the $1,000+ segment of the market you are dealing mostly with people who have already owned one or more DSLRs and probably have a pretty good idea of what they're buying. For that matter, this is the Internet Age with all kinds of information readily available, and nowadays very few people spend this kind of money without doing a bit of research. This mythical Average Joe who doesn't know what he's buying is just that: a myth.

I'm not saying that the E-M1 and E-M5 aren't great cameras. I don't doubt that they are. It's just that Canon and Nikon have built a lot of features and performance into their $1,200 APS-C camera bodies and both systems have a huge array of available lenses, flashes and accessories. It's going to be tough for any manufacturer to sway customers away with a $1,400 camera that offers few compelling advantages other than size and weight.

rrr_hhh Veteran Member • Posts: 6,022
Re: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line is NIL.
1

MichaelKJ wrote:

sderdiarian wrote:

Cipher wrote:

sderdiarian wrote:

"Olympus' E-M1 and high-performance lenses are going to start cutting further into the top of Nikon's DX line. I warned several years ago about what neglecting the DX lens line was going to do. Well, it's happened. E-M1 users have fast 24-80mm, 80-300mm equivalents, and fast 24mm, 35mm, 50mm, 90mm, and 150mm prime equivalents to choose from, and the whole m4/3 system is now properly scaled as the smallest and lightest enthusiast system with excellent performance. If Olympus had been aggressive in pricing, the D7100 would have been toast this Christmas. Even with Olympus' pricing, a lot of folk are experiencing a strong temptation to pay more for less (size and weight)."

A good read: http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/whither-nikon.html

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Sailin' Steve

The Nikon FF D600/D610 will have more of an impact than m4/3 on the top end DX bodies. Even if Olympus priced the E-M1 the same as the D7100, people are just more comfortable buying a camera from the two big names (Canon and Nikon). The fact that retailers don't really push m4/3 doesn't help either.

I don't think it's as bad as Thom paints it, but FF is not for everyone as it pushes gear prices up and makes for a heavy kit to lug about if one takes along multiple lenses. On the other hand, the D7100 is, however, still a fine camera for its price and Nikon has some quality, reasonably affordable lenses to compliment it.

But, I think Thom's correct on Christmas sales: the D7100 is now yesterday's news while the E-M1 is fresh and packs in a lot of features (further improved 5-axis IBIS in particular). It also appears to have closed the gap significantly on tracking, and can now fast AF with such great and affordable lenses as the 12-60mm f2.8-4 and 50-200mm f2.8-3.5. As he notes, combine the E-M1 with the fast primes and you also have the perfect small and light (only marginally larger and heavier than the E-M5) pro-build kit that you can easily take anywhere.

The E-M1 is currently 194th on AmazonUS Camera & Photo best sellers list while the D7100 is 106th.

The best selling E-M5 configuration is 1,609 in Camera & Photo on Amazon.

In Japan, the best selling D7100 configuration (with the 18-200) is 21st in BCN's rankings of DSLR/ILC sales, while the best selling E-M5 configuration is 111th. It would appear that the E-M5 has become "yesterday's news" much faster in both Japan and the US than the D7100.

I realize that you can argue that things would be different if Olympus had set the price lower for the E-M1. However, the D7100 is still a very popular camera and the notion that a camera such as the E-M1 could seriously hurt Nikon's sales in the near future are far fetched (IMO).

Many were taken by surprise by how well the E-M5 sold and that it won DPR's reader's choice award. Had Olympus priced the E-M1 to match the D7100, I think they'd have another runaway success on their hands this holiday season. People do read reviews and don't have to see the cameras in a big box store to buy them, as the E-M5 proved.

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Sailin' Steve

That is just a reflection of the global market share of the big two. That is not likely to change in a short lapse of time. However, look at DPreview home page : the E-M5 almost never left the top ten of the number of specs/ review clicks. It isn't only due to the recent announcement of the E-M1 and people wanting to compare it. It has been so during all the summer. Yet the body is now more than a year and a half old (it was announced in February 2012) and is still getting around 2.5% of the clicks.

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rrr_hhh

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rrr_hhh Veteran Member • Posts: 6,022
Re: How do you know it?

Sergey_Green wrote:

sderdiarian wrote:

Many were taken by surprise by how well the E-M5 sold and that it won DPR's reader's choice award. Had Olympus priced the E-M1 to match the D7100, I think they'd have another runaway success on their hands this holiday season. People do read reviews and don't have to see the cameras in a big box store to buy them, as the E-M5 proved.

Did it really sell well, or you think it sold well ?

There were long waiting lists to get one : I had preordered one in early March but only got one at the end of August inspite of the fact that in our country Olympus is better distributed than it appears to be in the US. Also Olympus managers have declared it several times : they were themselves surprised by how well the E-M1 was selling. Also here since its launching the price of the E-M5 has remained very stable, loosing less than 10% With respect to its launch price (998.- to 1022.- CHF with respect to 1089.- at launch time for body only)

http://www.toppreise.ch/chart_266303.html

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rrr_hhh

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rrr_hhh Veteran Member • Posts: 6,022
Re: Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line

photofan1986 wrote:

Just a criticism on the layout of the site of your link...

We are using wide screens more and more often, and websites layout is becoming more and more vertical. Can anyone explains this to me? Like DPR... I'm using a 16/9 screen, and I'm using maybe one third of the panel to view the forum. How it this? Am I supposed to rotate my screen vertically ?

The article may be interesting, but it's a real PITA to read.

Sorry for the OoT.

Well a big share of people have now migrated to tablets.. and their displays are way narrower than 16:9. Also it is often very uncomfortable to read endless lines : our eyes are only travelling a certain amount without the need to move the head too. There is a reason why you get columns in newspapers and magazines : if the text was crossing the whole page width from left to right, we would loose the next line when returning to left.

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rrr_hhh

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(unknown member) Veteran Member • Posts: 4,624
Re: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line is NIL.

rrr_hhh wrote:

wrote:

Cipher wrote:

sderdiarian wrote:

Many were taken by surprise by how well the E-M5 sold and that it won DPR's reader's choice award. Had Olympus priced the E-M1 to match the D7100, I think they'd have another runaway success on their hands this holiday season. People do read reviews and don't have to see the cameras in a big box store to buy them, as the E-M5 proved.

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Sailin' Steve

That is just a reflection of the global market share of the big two. That is not likely to change in a short lapse of time. However, look at DPreview home page : the E-M5 almost never left the top ten of the number of specs/ review clicks. It isn't only due to the recent announcement of the E-M1 and people wanting to compare it. It has been so during all the summer. Yet the body is now more than a year and a half old (it was announced in February 2012) and is still getting around 2.5% of the clicks.

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rrr_hhh

The old OM Magic .... I have a Nikon DX, very happy with it, but was very tempted at first by the OM.

Maybe if I did not shoot sports I would have bought one or a NEX 7 which is wonderful too, but it is still a hefty investment in camera/ lenses and with the Nion / Canon, a lot more good condition used pro level lenses available at excellent prices.

Still, the OM is surely a great camera. Nikon right now in DX seems to be the 'churn them out' volume approach re cameras. D3XXX, D5XXX, D7XXX....push volume. low price But no DX00's as some are looking for.

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Amateur photographer. Enjoy.....believe in yourself..

Acrill
Acrill Senior Member • Posts: 2,540
Re: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line - probably not in the USA market
1

sderdiarian wrote:

But as smartphones cull more and more Joe & Jane's from the buying pool, people only superficially interested in photography in the first place

You're right, and this is a key point:

The market for enthusiast cameras has boomed over the past decade but now faces a bust.

The pie is shrinking.

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technic Veteran Member • Posts: 8,932
Re: Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line
2

Advent1sam wrote:

Nikon looking sorry, all their own making unfortunately. Maybe now they'll focus on what people want, not what they want people to have! That is the big difference with Sony, they do listen

... so NEX users don't care for decent lenses?

technic Veteran Member • Posts: 8,932
Re: I am not really sure if they are skimming the cream either ..
1

Sergey_Green wrote:

Here in EU ( and forget about dX )

Nikon D600 (SLR) Gehäuse (VBA340AE) ab €1418,78

Olympus OM-D E-M1 (EVIL) Gehäuse schwarz (V207010BE000) ab €1499,

Canon EOS 6D (SLR) Gehäuse (8035B022) ab €1515,04

I already asked the same question somewhere else, what would you buy for the same money;

  1. the camera that is easier to carry
  2. the camera that will take better images

Many, and those who know what to do with it, take the second option. And so the stores are hardly making any profits on the first.

And if people chose option 1 and just want a basic setup with 1-2 zooms, they can buy a Canon SL1 kit which is nearly the same size/weight as the E-M1 or E-M5, but at 2-4x lower price. If you compare E-M1 to a Canon 7D it is indeed small and light, but how many m43 users really need those 'pro' features?

technic Veteran Member • Posts: 8,932
Re: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line is NIL.
1

rrr_hhh wrote:

That is just a reflection of the global market share of the big two. That is not likely to change in a short lapse of time. However, look at DPreview home page : the E-M5 almost never left the top ten of the number of specs/ review clicks. It isn't only due to the recent announcement of the E-M1 and people wanting to compare it. It has been so during all the summer. Yet the body is now more than a year and a half old (it was announced in February 2012) and is still getting around 2.5% of the clicks.

IMHO this is partly a statistical artifact because Olympus had just one current DSLR, while Canon and Nikon have about a dozen to chose from. If you compare E-M1 + E-M5 to total of Canikon DX clicks, I'm sure you get a very different picture.

Anderton Contributing Member • Posts: 663
Re: Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line
1

rrr_hhh wrote:

Anderton wrote:

duartix wrote:

Anderton wrote:

A colleague who shoots everything with his Canon 7D has spent $10k on his gear is looking towards migrating to NEX in the next year or so when the sensor and lens line up has matured.

If he's looking for a mature lens system why go NEX? Does he need the extra mega pixels?

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Duarte Bruno

Sensor size for landscapes and night time shooting.

With respect to IQ, what matters is the sensor area (supposing everything is equal) and APSC is only 30% bigger than MFT sensors. Since the lens offering is far from stellar for the NEX, the difference could well be columned by the superior lenses line. And don't forget the extraordinary 5axes IBIS. In the end I'm nit sure whether the IQ would be very different between the two systems.

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rrr_hhh

Sensor size as in the imminent release of full frame sensor on the NEX line, the image quality will more than likely be very different between the two systems.

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