Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

Started May 17, 2013 | Discussions
TheDoctorWhat Regular Member • Posts: 158
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

Does not matter one bit.  Buy the camera that you need today. Nothing the consumer can do other then just buy the camera and when you upgrade stick to the manufacture if it still meets your needs.

Nikon and Canon are the big two and if a person owns a Nikon or Canon DSLR most likely they will buy their p&s as an everyday consumer.

Users that know anything about photography will potentially mix it up a bit.  I almost guarantee you if you went to your local Walmart, Target, or shopping mall and stopped everyone one there and asked them to check off how they research a camera, what web sites they use I bet 80% have never heard of DPREVIEW or Steves Digi-Cams, or 43 Rumors or Fuji Rumors etc..

Its up to the manufacture to see their product and advertise it. If they did this during the big sporting events, Super Bowl, World Series, Olympics, plus local advertisements not just in photography magazines it would change.

90% of these consumers don't know they can buy a p&s, DSLR and a mirrorless camera with the same $500 budget or so even if its a soon to be discontinued model and the price has dropped.

Ed B
Ed B Veteran Member • Posts: 9,186
Re: That is what you get when you do not do yoru research
4

Mjankor wrote:

Jorginho wrote:

In their reports I also noted a clear remark that their mirrorless line has been profitable over the last year.

Good work.

Looks like there's some lies, damn lies and statistics going on here.

This thread was started by rattymouse.

He constantly posts threads condemning mirrorless cameras.

Sometimes it's hard to believe he hasn't been cautioned about it.

Ed B
Ed B Veteran Member • Posts: 9,186
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
1

rattymouse wrote:

peevee1 wrote:

rattymouse wrote:

As seen at sansmirror.com, the final numbers are in for mirrorless last year and the results are NOT pretty.  The main mirrorless players are either losing enormous money (Panasonic and Olympus),

Olympus was profitable in 2012. Both as a whole and its mirrorless line.

Absolute nonsense.  Olympus has never made a penny of profit from mirrorless.  They have been losing money for years.

-- hide signature --

9 years of Fujifilm camera usage, ended by rampant fanboyism.

Please post your source.

Abrak Veteran Member • Posts: 4,107
Re: Better Chart ..

Jeff wrote:

rattymouse wrote:

As seen at sansmirror.com, the final numbers are in for mirrorless last year and the results are NOT pretty.  The main mirrorless players are either losing enormous money (Panasonic and Olympus), losing some money (Fujifilm), or barely eeking out a profit (Sony).

Canon and Nikon are profitable, but it is virtually certain that their DSLR sales are carrying that load.

Another bloodbath for the mirrorless makers, leading to the question, will they all survive until next year's financial reports??

-- hide signature --

9 years of Fujifilm camera usage, ended by rampant fanboyism.

I've slightly reformatted my chart from earlier in this tread to better show shipments of mirrorless cameras as a portion of the the shipment of all interchangeable lens cameras.  This is data from CIPA for worldwide shipments of interchangeable lens cameras by month since Jan, 2011.

To me, this doesn't look like a hammering for mirrorless cameras.  There does appear to be a problem with channel stuffing prior to Christmas, 2012, which may be the reason you kind find such good deals right now.

And, ss I said before, there may too many camera makers to survive in this narrow niche. Getting squeezed from below by the smartphone tidal wave, and from above by Nikon and Canon is a bad place to be.

To my mind, the strategy flaw is not in the developing this market per se, but in not more directly targeting the 100's of millions of users of those smartphones to higher levels of visual expression. They are not going to be impressed by f-stops and shutter speeds. They need to have a path to better pictures.  Sort of like what Steve Jobs brought to the computer industry.

I do think that there is at least a degree of truth to your 'channel stuffing' theory. Afterall CIPA records  show 'shipments' and not 'sales'. Also as CIPA has only stripped out mirrorless from interchangeable lens cameras for a little over a year it is a bit difficult to tell. Still, as we know, DSLRs have taken a fairly similar path, rising some what less and falling somewhat more.

So if we take the data for 'all' 'ilcs' and look at the last 8 quarters...

1Q 2011 3489

2Q 2011 3257

3q 2011 5503

4q 2011 3442

1Q 2012 4129 (+18% YOY)

2Q 2012 5147 (+58% YOY)

3Q 2012 5433 (-3% YOY)

4Q 2012 5446 (+58% YOY)

1Q 2013 3204 (-22% YOY)

...we can see the underlying trends....

1Q 2013 was a sharp fall on 1Q 2012 (-22%) it was an even sharper fall on 4Q 2012 (-41%). In fact 1Q 2013 was lower than 1Q 2011 - 2011, a year when the industry shipped less than 16m ILCs compared to 20m last year.

However, it does look to be a reaction to the very heavy shipping in 4Q 2012 which was up 58% YOY. In all likelihood, that means that the camera manufacturers heavily 'stuffed' the channels and that sales simply didnt come through.

Still we cant get away from at least 2 facts (1) this is the lowest quarterly figure for at least 2 years and (2) 1Q is not down on a particularly low quarter last year - in fact it is down on the lowest reported quarterly figure for last year.

Shipments would have to 'double' in the second quarter (to a record) in order for camera to get back to the first half of 2012 and to make anywhere near half the sales of last year. All the signs are that after a pretty good couple of years, demand for ILCs in general has gone very soft.

Richard Veteran Member • Posts: 4,858
I was talking new cameras.
2

LincolnB wrote:

Doesn't matter if you can't make a profit on them. The biggest thing holding back mirrorless is price. If it was 200-300 dollars, I would buy one...

These were taken with my $299 DMC-G3 with kit lens:

Not discontinued or used. You cannot find the EP2 or this camera for 299 new with lens. Sure B&H shows them for that price but you cant get one, it is discontinued. Even if you could, manufacturer is not making money off of it. It is trying to unload the old garbage so the new stuff will sell.

Richard Veteran Member • Posts: 4,858
They answered them all right
1

Jorginho wrote:

Now Oly has answered those questions raised an I provided you and other with those answers. You are free to assume or believe whatever you like of course. I rather stick to facts.

NOT! Oly is hurting, You and probably they are in denial. Like Chef said. (Bleep)me when people are in denial.

zxaar Veteran Member • Posts: 4,159
Re: oookay, back to reality
6

Sk8trguy wrote:

rattymouse wrote:

Sk8trguy wrote:

iirc, dslrs held 100% of the market and mirrorless had 0% a few years back.  now it is 80:20.

Absolutely meaningless statistic.

20% of the interchangeable lens market gets taken up in a few short years, and you call it meaningless.

In the same period of time, the camera used in smartphones have grown to much larger numbers than mirrorless cams. So yes this fact is meaningless. Mirrorless is competing with smartphones and not with dSLRs. Mirrorless's days are numbered, as smartphones are already used much more than mirrorless cams.

that is like saying if hybrids and electric cars take over 20% of the auto market, it's meaningless if other sales remain constant.   in the real world it means that is 20% more sales you could have had but gave way.  which is why everyone now is jumping on the band wagon and putting most of their r&d money into it.

Prove that dslrs are now sold 20% less in numbers or units than when they had 100% market share.  If you can not than again what mirrorless are doing is irrelevant to dslr market because dslr market has grown not shrunk.

-- hide signature --

::> I make spelling mistakes. May Dog forgive me for this.

Abrak Veteran Member • Posts: 4,107
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

Ed B wrote:

rattymouse wrote:

peevee1 wrote:

rattymouse wrote:

As seen at sansmirror.com, the final numbers are in for mirrorless last year and the results are NOT pretty.  The main mirrorless players are either losing enormous money (Panasonic and Olympus),

Olympus was profitable in 2012. Both as a whole and its mirrorless line.

Absolute nonsense.  Olympus has never made a penny of profit from mirrorless.  They have been losing money for years.

-- hide signature --

9 years of Fujifilm camera usage, ended by rampant fanboyism.

Please post your source.

http://www.olympus-global.com/en/ir/data/brief/2013/

LincolnB Veteran Member • Posts: 4,350
Re: I was talking new cameras.

Richard wrote:

LincolnB wrote:

Doesn't matter if you can't make a profit on them. The biggest thing holding back mirrorless is price. If it was 200-300 dollars, I would buy one...

These were taken with my $299 DMC-G3 with kit lens:

Not discontinued or used. You cannot find the EP2 or this camera for 299 new with lens.

Amazon has the E-P2 body for sale for $210. Ebay is full of sales of the kit lens for around $80. If you can't find a lens for a micro four thirds camera for less than $100 then you're not looking very hard.

I bought the G3 with lens for less than $300. Do you need to see the receipt? I made the point that it's easy to find a micro four thirds camera for the price you range you quoted. I made that point easily.

Oh, so it has to be brand new, the very latest camera, it has to be as small as a compact yet perform as well as a DSLR, it has to include a lens, oh and the manufacturer has to be making a profit on it while still keeping the price under $300. Any other restrictions you want to tack on before you'll buy? Or do you want to keep moving the goalposts?

Sure B&H shows them for that price but you cant get one, it is discontinued. Even if you could, manufacturer is not making money off of it. It is trying to unload the old garbage so the new stuff will sell.

So you think the G3 and the E-P2 are garbage, beneath your photographic skills?

 LincolnB's gear list:LincolnB's gear list
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zxaar Veteran Member • Posts: 4,159
So, may be
4

LincolnB wrote:

Richard wrote:

LincolnB wrote:

Doesn't matter if you can't make a profit on them. The biggest thing holding back mirrorless is price. If it was 200-300 dollars, I would buy one...

These were taken with my $299 DMC-G3 with kit lens:

Not discontinued or used. You cannot find the EP2 or this camera for 299 new with lens.

Amazon has the E-P2 body for sale for $210. Ebay is full of sales of the kit lens for around $80. If you can't find a lens for a micro four thirds camera for less than $100 then you're not looking very hard.

I bought the G3 with lens for less than $300. Do you need to see the receipt? I made the point that it's easy to find a micro four thirds camera for the price you range you quoted. I made that point easily.

Oh, so it has to be brand new, the very latest camera, it has to be as small as a compact yet perform as well as a DSLR, it has to include a lens, oh and the manufacturer has to be making a profit on it while still keeping the price under $300. Any other restrictions you want to tack on before you'll buy? Or do you want to keep moving the goalposts?

So may be the best time to buy OMD would be 3 years from now.

It would be better if m43 companies also advised this to their buyers and also put a note: Best time to buy our camera is after 3 years of their release date. Don't buy the just released cameras , we priced them such that after 3 years they will be selling at their right prices.

Sure B&H shows them for that price but you cant get one, it is discontinued. Even if you could, manufacturer is not making money off of it. It is trying to unload the old garbage so the new stuff will sell.

So you think the G3 and the E-P2 are garbage, beneath your photographic skills?

-- hide signature --

::> I make spelling mistakes. May Dog forgive me for this.

OP (unknown member) Forum Pro • Posts: 13,144
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
2

Abrak wrote:

Ed B wrote:

rattymouse wrote:

peevee1 wrote:

rattymouse wrote:

As seen at sansmirror.com, the final numbers are in for mirrorless last year and the results are NOT pretty.  The main mirrorless players are either losing enormous money (Panasonic and Olympus),

Olympus was profitable in 2012. Both as a whole and its mirrorless line.

Absolute nonsense.  Olympus has never made a penny of profit from mirrorless.  They have been losing money for years.

-- hide signature --

9 years of Fujifilm camera usage, ended by rampant fanboyism.

Please post your source.

http://www.olympus-global.com/en/ir/data/brief/2013/

Thank you, that source did nicely.  From that link we see that Olympus (imaging division) lost  1.5 billion yen in the first quarter, 6.2 billion in the second, 8.7 billion in the third, and 6.6 billion in the forth quarter.

-- hide signature --

9 years of Fujifilm camera usage, ended by rampant fanboyism.

OP (unknown member) Forum Pro • Posts: 13,144
Re: That is what you get when you do not do yoru research
1

Ed B wrote:

Mjankor wrote:

Jorginho wrote:

In their reports I also noted a clear remark that their mirrorless line has been profitable over the last year.

Good work.

Looks like there's some lies, damn lies and statistics going on here.

This thread was started by rattymouse.

He constantly posts threads condemning mirrorless cameras.

Sometimes it's hard to believe he hasn't been cautioned about it.

You have a problem discussing the state of the camera industry?  Perhaps you should move to a gardening forum then.

FYI, I shoot mirrorless primarily.

-- hide signature --

9 years of Fujifilm camera usage, ended by rampant fanboyism.

ZodiacPhoto
ZodiacPhoto Senior Member • Posts: 1,404
What Mirrorless?

As a Canon DSLR and M4/3 (Panasonic) user, I think that the biggest obstacle in mirrorless proliferation is their total absence from retailers shelves. I was looking for an update for my Panasonic camera, but neither BestBuy, nor 3 specialized camera stores in my city (population over 600,000) sell any Micro 4/3 cameras. Nobody sells Fujifilm X series. Only one model of Sony mirrorless was at Bestbuy, and a couple of Nikon 1's.

I do understand retailers who don't want to get stuck with cameras that nobody wishes to buy. But, from talking to friends and coworkers, public is well aware about mirrorless cameras, but nobody will buy a camera without holding it in their hand, and comparing to Canikon in the other hand.So, unless you live in the city where stores like B&H or Adorama are located, you are out of luck.

The eternal "a chicken or an egg" problem...

Jorginho Forum Pro • Posts: 14,105
Re: That is what you get when you do not do yoru research

Mjankor wrote:

Jorginho wrote:

In their reports I also noted a clear remark that their mirrorless line has been profitable over the last year.

Good work.

Looks like there's some lies, damn lies and statistics going on here.

 Jorginho's gear list:Jorginho's gear list
Olympus PEN E-PL5 Panasonic Lumix DMC-GH4 Olympus E-M1 II Panasonic Lumix G Vario 14-45mm F3.5-5.6 ASPH OIS Panasonic Lumix G 20mm F1.7 ASPH +8 more
Jorginho Forum Pro • Posts: 14,105
Re: So, may be

zxaar wrote:

LincolnB wrote:

Richard wrote:

LincolnB wrote:

Doesn't matter if you can't make a profit on them. The biggest thing holding back mirrorless is price. If it was 200-300 dollars, I would buy one...

These were taken with my $299 DMC-G3 with kit lens:

Not discontinued or used. You cannot find the EP2 or this camera for 299 new with lens.

Amazon has the E-P2 body for sale for $210. Ebay is full of sales of the kit lens for around $80. If you can't find a lens for a micro four thirds camera for less than $100 then you're not looking very hard.

I bought the G3 with lens for less than $300. Do you need to see the receipt? I made the point that it's easy to find a micro four thirds camera for the price you range you quoted. I made that point easily.

Oh, so it has to be brand new, the very latest camera, it has to be as small as a compact yet perform as well as a DSLR, it has to include a lens, oh and the manufacturer has to be making a profit on it while still keeping the price under $300. Any other restrictions you want to tack on before you'll buy? Or do you want to keep moving the goalposts?

So may be the best time to buy OMD would be 3 years from now.

If you are expecting topcalss performance and specs for a low budget price, you do not need to wait for three years. You need a reality check right now.

It would be better if m43 companies also advised this to their buyers and also put a note: Best time to buy our camera is after 3 years of their release date. Don't buy the just released cameras , we priced them such that after 3 years they will be selling at their right prices.

No..given all the comotion surrounding them they should have issued a warning that some DSLr or APS-c users need to consult a doctor before getting into the m43 concept. May be they prescribe them some Xanax or so.

Sure B&H shows them for that price but you cant get one, it is discontinued. Even if you could, manufacturer is not making money off of it. It is trying to unload the old garbage so the new stuff will sell.

So you think the G3 and the E-P2 are garbage, beneath your photographic skills?

No one answers that question fo course. It is better to start talking about somehting completely different.

 Jorginho's gear list:Jorginho's gear list
Olympus PEN E-PL5 Panasonic Lumix DMC-GH4 Olympus E-M1 II Panasonic Lumix G Vario 14-45mm F3.5-5.6 ASPH OIS Panasonic Lumix G 20mm F1.7 ASPH +8 more
Jorginho Forum Pro • Posts: 14,105
Re: where does it say that mirrorless was profitable?

No I cannot I started noting times as soon as it wax clear they would return to the same subject over and over again. It takes 2 h or so I think, so I am not willing to do that. I heard it, if you listened to the whole article and you sure you did not hear it I am happy to admit I made a mistake.

 Jorginho's gear list:Jorginho's gear list
Olympus PEN E-PL5 Panasonic Lumix DMC-GH4 Olympus E-M1 II Panasonic Lumix G Vario 14-45mm F3.5-5.6 ASPH OIS Panasonic Lumix G 20mm F1.7 ASPH +8 more
Jorginho Forum Pro • Posts: 14,105
Is a American problem it seems

ZodiacPhoto wrote:

As a Canon DSLR and M4/3 (Panasonic) user, I think that the biggest obstacle in mirrorless proliferation is their total absence from retailers shelves. I was looking for an update for my Panasonic camera, but neither BestBuy, nor 3 specialized camera stores in my city (population over 600,000) sell any Micro 4/3 cameras. Nobody sells Fujifilm X series. Only one model of Sony mirrorless was at Bestbuy, and a couple of Nikon 1's.

I do understand retailers who don't want to get stuck with cameras that nobody wishes to buy. But, from talking to friends and coworkers, public is well aware about mirrorless cameras, but nobody will buy a camera without holding it in their hand, and comparing to Canikon in the other hand.So, unless you live in the city where stores like B&H or Adorama are located, you are out of luck.

The eternal "a chicken or an egg" problem...

In Europe, even my tiny city of 50000 people has 2 big stores with a complete line up. 10 km to the south there is another one and 20 km to the east smaller ciy with yet again a shop with a full line up. I think America is just not their main market (yet). Oly said they are changing their Euro/Armerican strategy but we'll have to wait and see.

 Jorginho's gear list:Jorginho's gear list
Olympus PEN E-PL5 Panasonic Lumix DMC-GH4 Olympus E-M1 II Panasonic Lumix G Vario 14-45mm F3.5-5.6 ASPH OIS Panasonic Lumix G 20mm F1.7 ASPH +8 more
Ulric Veteran Member • Posts: 4,532
Re: Chef Ramsey.. (Bleep) me

Richard wrote:

The biggest thing holding back mirrorless is price. If it was 200-300 dollars, I would buy one, but when they cost the consumer more than a DSLR with lens, they at best will only remain a niche market, or they will take down the imaging dept of the companies that sell them through no profit.

They don't. Comparable models cost about the same. $200 isn't going to get you a very good, latest model mirrorless, but it isn't going to get you a very good, latest model DSLR either.

 Ulric's gear list:Ulric's gear list
Panasonic Lumix DMC-GF3 Olympus OM-D E-M5 Panasonic Lumix DMC-GM1 Olympus PEN-F Panasonic Lumix G 20mm F1.7 ASPH +13 more
Ulric Veteran Member • Posts: 4,532
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

vzlnc wrote:

Ulric wrote:

vzlnc wrote:

Mirrorless cams are way over priced for now and that will always keep them as a niche market.

I would say that E-PM2+kit lens is about the same price and same IQ as an entry-level DSLR (say, a D3200). That seems reasonable to me.

No viewfinder , no flash for same price as the D3200 which has a flash and viewfinder. m43 is more expensive as a system, but atleast if they keep the entry level cost cheaper, more people will try them out.

The D3200 lacks the killer feature of the E-PM2: small size. They complement each other, and as long as no reasonably sized DSLRs exist, I don't see what would replace cameras such as the E-PM2.

 Ulric's gear list:Ulric's gear list
Panasonic Lumix DMC-GF3 Olympus OM-D E-M5 Panasonic Lumix DMC-GM1 Olympus PEN-F Panasonic Lumix G 20mm F1.7 ASPH +13 more
ZodiacPhoto
ZodiacPhoto Senior Member • Posts: 1,404
Re: Is a American problem it seems

Jorginho,

I asked the owner of one of the local photography shops, and he told me that, in order to sell the camera, he has to buy it from the distributor. He can't get anything directly from OEMs. If the camera he bought from the distributor didn't sell, he is stuck with it and looses money. Therefore, he is afraid to put anything on the shelf which may not sell. Even if somebosy comes over to look at the product, there is a huge chance that they will play with the camera, ask questions, leave and buy online.

Some people buy cameras online from a store with liberal return policy, test them for a few days, and return for a refund (usually minus return shipping). Very same people often complain when they buy a new camera and it looks like somebody already opened the box and played with it:-)

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