Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

Started May 17, 2013 | Discussions
peripheralfocus Veteran Member • Posts: 4,290
could you point out your source?

peevee1 wrote:

Olympus was profitable in 2012. Both as a whole and its mirrorless line.

How do you know that the mirrorless line was profitable in 2012? Can you point us to a source for that information?

peevee1 Veteran Member • Posts: 6,247
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
4

John Waine wrote:

Where is the mob constantly chanting on about the death of DSLRs?

Replaced by the mob in denial. Reminds me of digital transition 10+ years ago, and how only film was real.

MoreorLess Veteran Member • Posts: 4,577
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

nikkorwatcher wrote:

maybe the problem is that mirrorless is following developments in sensors too closely and the product lines change too fast? Every time they design a camera and fabrication process they have to make the money back. For a production run of a year that's difficult. They're squeezed in the middle re price and quality.

The problem is I'd say that its very tough fast developing market, the alternative to me seems likely to lose market share to a rival who does keep pace with developments.

My guess is that mirrorless will need both potential developments to slow down and maybe a few players to dropout before it becomes reasonably profitable.

ed2002 Regular Member • Posts: 254
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
1

Abrak wrote:

Sales of compacts were 57bn yen against a forecast (made this time last year) of 91bn. Sales of compacts have fallen from 120bn Yen over the last 3 years. Olympus is 'substantially reducing' the number of compact camera models it is producing and will cease production of lower priced models. For the current year they expect compact camera sales to fall from 57bn to 40bn yen. ....Sounds vaguely realistic.....

Perhaps more worrying is 'mirrorless'. Olympus achieved sales of 38bn yen well below their forecast of 43bn yen made at the beginning of the year. Given what must have been a very successful OMD launch that's not too impressive.

Thanks, I wouldn't call that a hammering.  They simply missed a forecast.  It sounds like from your numbers mirrorless were quite profitable for olympus

Olympus expects 'strong growth' in mirrorless 'in conjunction with market trends'. (yeah right!) They are forecasting mirrorless sales to increase from 38bn yen to 50bn yen (ho, ho, ho).

I guess you don't believe the yen is much weaker this year than last year?

They are also forecasting their gross margin for the imaging business to increase from 33% to 44% (I am not making this up) and SG&A expenses to fall 20% from 56bn yen to 44bn yen.  The combined effect of these (massively heroic) assumptions is a forecast to move from losses of 23.3bn yen to breakeven.

The problem Olympus faces is that last year it made a loss equivalent to 20% of sales! And the only way you can get back to breakeven from there is by making hopeless optimistic forecasts for sales, gross margin and your ability to cut expenses.

I can see you thinking the foreasts are optimistic, but cutting the unprofitable v series should really help olympuses profits.

justmeMN Veteran Member • Posts: 7,104
Olympus Camera Sales Numbers
1

According to Olympus' financial documents, Olympus Overseas camera sales, went from 259,723 (Millions of Yen) in fiscal 2008, to 87,904 (Millions of Yen) in fiscal 2012.

In the same time period, their total digital camera sales went from 293,566 (MY) to 115,237 (MY).

I don't see how cutting one line of compact cameras is enough to solve the problems with their digital camera division.

OP (unknown member) Forum Pro • Posts: 13,144
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
2

peevee1 wrote:

rattymouse wrote:

As seen at sansmirror.com, the final numbers are in for mirrorless last year and the results are NOT pretty.  The main mirrorless players are either losing enormous money (Panasonic and Olympus),

Olympus was profitable in 2012. Both as a whole and its mirrorless line.

Absolute nonsense.  Olympus has never made a penny of profit from mirrorless.  They have been losing money for years.

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ed2002 Regular Member • Posts: 254
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

nikkorwatcher wrote:

maybe the problem is that mirrorless is following developments in sensors too closely and the product lines change too fast? Every time they design a camera and fabrication process they have to make the money back. For a production run of a year that's difficult. They're squeezed in the middle re price and quality.

I think you are making the same false assumption as the OP.

The sub $200 P&S lines of olympus lost a great deal of money.  In the news item that followed Olympus's decission to exit that market segment it said it would concentrate on high margin sales of of interchangable lens cameras.  That seems to say that given the great lack of evidence, that Olympus did not in fact lose a great deal of money on the m4/3.  They simply did not sell as many as forecast.

The corporation reported a turn around to profitablitliy.

It would be great if someone with numbers could point out how much profit or loss olympus made on m4/3, but if it was a big loss, WSJ would likely pointed that out in there news analysis.  WSJ seemed to find a problem with low cost cameras because of cell phone competition.

Abrak Veteran Member • Posts: 4,129
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
3

peevee1 wrote:

Abrak wrote:

peevee1 wrote:

Olympus was profitable in 2012. Both as a whole and its mirrorless line.

Dont be ridiculous. How could their mirrorless division be profitable.

In 4Q the mirrorless division made sales of 7bn yen and the imaging division lost 14.3bn yen. For the mirrorless to have made 1 yen of profit, the compact business would have had to generate losses of over 100% of sales revenue.

And what is surprising? Prices for P&S are really low, and sales too - combine with still high number of released cameras (i.e. high R&D and other fixed costs), and you can have 200 or 300% loss compared to sales for those P&S.

BTW, where have you got the 7bn yen for Oly mirrorless sales? Because Oly has something like 30% of mirrorless market (at least in Japan) all for themselves, not even counting lenses (where margins on some products like 12/2 and 75/1.8 and 14-150 are huge).

The source is ....

http://www.olympus-global.com/en/common/pdf/brief145PBe_5.pdf

Slide 35.

According to Cipa, mirrorless 1Q shipments worldwide were 20bn. So that might place Oly's share as high as 35% but as you point out their mirrorless sales will include lenses.

You should remember that mirrorless is only 8.6% of the total market and 16.6% of the ILC market (value and 20.0% by unit.)

Abrak Veteran Member • Posts: 4,129
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
3

ed2002 wrote:

Abrak wrote:

Olympus expects 'strong growth' in mirrorless 'in conjunction with market trends'. (yeah right!) They are forecasting mirrorless sales to increase from 38bn yen to 50bn yen (ho, ho, ho).

I guess you don't believe the yen is much weaker this year than last year?

Well according to CIPA for the first 3 months of 2013, global mirrorless shipments were down 18.5% YOY in unit terms and 17.9% in value terms (yen). So the depreciating yen helps a bit but a 32% growth forecast against a market declining 18% seems pretty jolly to me.

robert1955 Veteran Member • Posts: 3,899
If Mark Twain were alive
6

... he'd have to add to 'lies, damn lies and statistics' 'numbers presented by rattymouse'

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Abrak Veteran Member • Posts: 4,129
Re: If Mark Twain were alive

robert1955 wrote:

... he'd have to add to 'lies, damn lies and statistics' 'numbers presented by rattymouse'

Actually I think you raise an interesting point. We see on DPreview and various blogs all sorts of numbers for camera sales - amazon.com sales figures extrapolated for the whole industry or Japanese sales data extrapolated globally.

Now I find that the best numbers come from 2 sources. First is the published corporate data posted by the likes of Nikon, Canon and Olympus to their stock exchanges. Admittedly submitting false accounting data isnt unheard of from camera companies but there you go. Secondly the Cipa data - http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/dizital.html - posted monthly which shows global shipments (admittedly not sales).

Now the reason I like this data is that the 'micro' - i.e. company sales data - broadly reconciles the 'macro' - i.e. global shipment data.

So, for instance, the CIPA numbers show that for 2012 digital camera sales were down 15% in unit terms and up 1.1% in value terms (yen). This reflects a big fall - -22% - in compact sales but a 28% rise in higher priced ILC sales.

Now that the fact that the digital camera market might have increased sales by 1.1% (value) in 2012 might be a surprise to a few people. But if we look at Nikon US$5.8bn sales (-2%) and Canon US$14.2bn (+7%) it broadly reconciles bearing in mind that digital cameras make up 65% and 40.5% of their sales respectively. Furthermore if we workout Nikon/Canon's digital camera sales as a percentage of the total CIPA figures it works out at just over 61% which sounds about right.

Finally if we take say Olympus mirrorless camera sales to March 2013 of 38.7bn yen and adjust their sales for full year 2012 we find that their Olympus mirrorless sales were 37.1bn yen for 2012. Cipa estimates that mirrorless was 125bn yen out of a total market of 1485bn yen with a market shares of 8.5% (this might be smaller than people imagine). So that gives Olympus a 29.7% share of global mirrorless sales in 2012 which again sounds about right.

Thorgrem Contributing Member • Posts: 564
Re: Mirrorless successfully established a foothold
4

So Panasonic and Olympus made their own segment to gain marketshare in the cameraworld. Apparently people see it as a treat as obviously Olympus and Panasonic are to stay and will eventually take some marketshare form Canikon. It's the way things go in a healthy market segment.

All this doom talk is nonsense. m4/3 is gaining. Maybe not as fast as predicted. I don't see the need to discuss it over and over on a forum. Go out and take some pictures with all the fine equipment that is available, mirrorless and dSLR.

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Jorginho Forum Pro • Posts: 14,300
Kneejerk hapiness without own research
1

In stead of picking the rotten cherries handed to you by Thom and neglecting his fresh ones does not seem so wise. Moreover it is better to do your own research. it is not that difficult.

minutes 12, 26, 36, 40 about imaging.

- In short:
1) CCs will get less resources, mirrorless will get much more focus
2) Mirrorless sales are on the rise from Q1 2012 to Q1 2013 with 25%, Over the fiscal year it is 15%
3) Mirrorless sales were profitable because of OMD
4) CCs that WILL get developed will only be so if they are synergetical with mirrorless (mFT CC? Don't know)
5) Oly is doing good with mirrorless in East Asia, but less well than competition in Asia and Europe. They will change their business model in Europe and America
6) They will not rise the prise and will not aim at growth in numbers, but growth in rpofit by becoming more efficient.
7) They do not expect a netprofit in the camera busniess 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. So do not call out when you see this. It is expected.
8) They will try to get 9% profitability over the mirrorless business (which is critically reviewed by some of the journalists btw).

Most positive thing to us is of course their effort put into mFT cams and their aim not to let unitprice rise.

Also: mirrorless is more than Olympus. Nikon wants to take 25-35% marktetshare over the next few years. That does not point towards less effort or negative expectations by Nikon on the mirrorless market.

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Jorginho Forum Pro • Posts: 14,300
That is what you get when you do not do yoru research
2

In their reports I also noted a clear remark that their mirrorless line has been profitable over the last year.

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Martin.au
Martin.au Forum Pro • Posts: 13,223
Re: That is what you get when you do not do yoru research
2

Jorginho wrote:

In their reports I also noted a clear remark that their mirrorless line has been profitable over the last year.

Good work.

Looks like there's some lies, damn lies and statistics going on here.

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Barrie Davis
Barrie Davis Forum Pro • Posts: 21,460
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OP (unknown member) Forum Pro • Posts: 13,144
Re: Mirrorless successfully established a foothold
3

Thorgrem wrote:

So Panasonic and Olympus made their own segment to gain marketshare in the cameraworld. Apparently people see it as a treat as obviously Olympus and Panasonic are to stay and will eventually take some marketshare form Canikon.

Pure speculation without any data at all.

It's the way things go in a healthy market segment.

Panasonic and Olympus are about as far from healthy as you can get.

All this doom talk is nonsense. m4/3 is gaining. Maybe not as fast as predicted.

Not according to published data.  But do continue to follow your religion.

I don't see the need to discuss it over and over on a forum.

Yet you enter such a discussion.  Clearly you do see the need to discuss.

Go out and take some pictures

What makes you think that I or anyone doesnt take pictures?  Hmmm?  If one posts at a forum, they do not ever take pictures?  You logic is woefully inadequate.

with all the fine equipment that is available, mirrorless and dSLR.

I shoot a mirrorless film camera.

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Thorgrem Contributing Member • Posts: 564
Re: Mirrorless successfully established a foothold
2

rattymouse wrote:

Thorgrem wrote:

So Panasonic and Olympus made their own segment to gain marketshare in the cameraworld. Apparently people see it as a treat as obviously Olympus and Panasonic are to stay and will eventually take some marketshare form Canikon.

Pure speculation without any data at all.

It's the way things go in a healthy market segment.

Panasonic and Olympus are about as far from healthy as you can get.

There m4/3 efforts are healthy. To bad you are scared for some competition.

All this doom talk is nonsense. m4/3 is gaining. Maybe not as fast as predicted.

Not according to published data.  But do continue to follow your religion.

Not according to your interpretation of published date. And you also ignore some published data. But go ahead in your rand and troll if you like. The ignore list is such a fine tool.

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Ulric Veteran Member • Posts: 4,534
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
1

vzlnc wrote:

Mirrorless cams are way over priced for now and that will always keep them as a niche market.

I would say that E-PM2+kit lens is about the same price and same IQ as an entry-level DSLR (say, a D3200). That seems reasonable to me.

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zxaar Veteran Member • Posts: 4,260
Re: Mirrorless successfully established a foothold
4

Thorgrem wrote:

rattymouse wrote:

Thorgrem wrote:

So Panasonic and Olympus made their own segment to gain marketshare in the cameraworld. Apparently people see it as a treat as obviously Olympus and Panasonic are to stay and will eventually take some marketshare form Canikon.

Pure speculation without any data at all.

It's the way things go in a healthy market segment.

Panasonic and Olympus are about as far from healthy as you can get.

There m4/3 efforts are healthy. To bad you are scared for some competition.

20% in Europe and 14% in USA, sure is very scary competition, specially when dSLRS are going dodo.

Does it mean that mirrorless are going dodo at faster rate than dslrs.

All this doom talk is nonsense. m4/3 is gaining. Maybe not as fast as predicted.

Not according to published data.  But do continue to follow your religion.

Not according to your interpretation of published date. And you also ignore some published data. But go ahead in your rand and troll if you like. The ignore list is such a fine tool.

If the market is less than 20%, that gaining is no real meaning . By gaining you mean gain from 0%.

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