Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

Started May 17, 2013 | Discussions
(unknown member) Forum Pro • Posts: 13,144
Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
5

As seen at sansmirror.com, the final numbers are in for mirrorless last year and the results are NOT pretty.  The main mirrorless players are either losing enormous money (Panasonic and Olympus), losing some money (Fujifilm), or barely eeking out a profit (Sony).

Canon and Nikon are profitable, but it is virtually certain that their DSLR sales are carrying that load.

Another bloodbath for the mirrorless makers, leading to the question, will they all survive until next year's financial reports??

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9 years of Fujifilm camera usage, ended by rampant fanboyism.

Richard Veteran Member • Posts: 4,858
You need to include quotes so people understand...
5

rattymouse wrote:

As seen at sansmirror.com, the final numbers are in for mirrorless last year and the results are NOT pretty.

"Olympus blamed an "unexpected degree of compact camera market contraction" on missing their goals, but remember, Nikon made their numbers in compacts and gained market share during that same period."

"Overall, the medical sales continue to drive Olympus. It's their main business, it's profitable, it drives their cash flow, and it is the future of the company. Whereas Nikon has become more and more a camera company (now 75% of their sales), Olympus is going the other way: cameras are becoming less of their sales (currently 14.5%, and projected at 11% in 2017)."

"I should also point out that several analysts mentioned to me the same thing: the Olympus comments on the imaging group seemed like deja vu: it wasn't us, it was the market, and we'll just cut expenses and be okay. That's been a common theme in Olympus' reporting on their imaging business for three years now.

Martin.au
Martin.au Forum Pro • Posts: 13,230
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

Yay. If you're lucky then only one company will survive and we can stop arguing.

 Martin.au's gear list:Martin.au's gear list
Olympus OM-D E-M5 Olympus E-M1 II Olympus M.Zuiko Digital ED 60mm 1:2.8 Macro Olympus M.Zuiko Digital ED 12-50mm 1:3.5-6.3 EZ Panasonic Lumix G Fisheye 8mm F3.5 +7 more
ed2002 Regular Member • Posts: 254
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
2

Olympus plans on selling 300,000 interchangeable lens cameras this year, and was profitable this quarter.

The small low end point and shoot market is dying fast with smart phones.  Olympus announced they are killing that part of the business, as they were losing money.  I don't know about the high end single lens cameras.

Didn't see any news about mirror less interchangeable cameras losing year over year market share. Can you give us a link?

vzlnc Regular Member • Posts: 287
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
9

Mirrorless cams are way over priced for now and that will always keep them as a niche market. The accessory prices are ridiculous. Some cams dont have a built in flash. Lens prices are close to FF/DX prices or more. Is it any surprise that the sales are low. After the initial euphoria of the new system, people are back to demanding more bang for the buck which mirrorless definitely is not high on. Lot of people care more about price than size and a few more pounds doesnt bother as much as the price. Styling and aesthetics are definitely a factor, which is why mirrorless do sell, but that can only take it so far. But I am surprised even Panasonic is not doing so good. They have a very good P&S lineup and very good mirrorless lineup which are also affordable. It could be that the company does not have proper retail chain to support their product.

ed2002 Regular Member • Posts: 254
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
4

read the news.  P&S under $200 are taking a hit from smart phones.  Panasonic, Olympus, and Canon all reported that.

Is there an article that says mirrorless interchangeable are doing badly.  The WSJ article on Olympus leaving the low end market said it ws going to concentrate on the m4/3 cameras.

John Waine Forum Member • Posts: 74
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
1

Where is the mob constantly chanting on about the death of DSLRs?

OP (unknown member) Forum Pro • Posts: 13,144
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
2

ed2002 wrote:

read the news.  P&S under $200 are taking a hit from smart phones.  Panasonic, Olympus, and Canon all reported that.

Is there an article that says mirrorless interchangeable are doing badly.  The WSJ article on Olympus leaving the low end market said it ws going to concentrate on the m4/3 cameras.

Apologies.  I should have titled this post Mirrorless Companies take another hammering.

My point was that almost without exception, the mirrorless companies are losing money.  Olympus, Panasonic, and Fujifilm all lost money with their camera divisions.  Sony eeked a profit.

Canon and Nikon are doing far better.

The bottom is falling out of the compact market and mirrorless is not enough to cover that loss.

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9 years of Fujifilm camera usage, ended by rampant fanboyism.

OP (unknown member) Forum Pro • Posts: 13,144
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
3

vzlnc wrote:

Mirrorless cams are way over priced for now and that will always keep them as a niche market. The accessory prices are ridiculous.

Totally agree.

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zxaar Veteran Member • Posts: 4,274
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
6

vzlnc wrote:

Mirrorless cams are way over priced for now and that will always keep them as a niche market. The accessory prices are ridiculous. Some cams dont have a built in flash. Lens prices are close to FF/DX prices or more. Is it any surprise that the sales are low. After the initial euphoria of the new system, people are back to demanding more bang for the buck which mirrorless definitely is not high on. Lot of people care more about price than size and a few more pounds doesnt bother as much as the price. Styling and aesthetics are definitely a factor, which is why mirrorless do sell, but that can only take it so far. But I am surprised even Panasonic is not doing so good. They have a very good P&S lineup and very good mirrorless lineup which are also affordable. It could be that the company does not have proper retail chain to support their product.

you are spot on.Specially the pricing part.

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AllMankind
AllMankind Contributing Member • Posts: 564
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
3

vzlnc wrote:

Mirrorless cams are way over priced for now and that will always keep them as a niche market. The accessory prices are ridiculous.

If you think it's bad now, wait.  Many are saying the EP5 is over priced for what it is, especially when compared to the OM5.  But wait, maybe Olympus under priced the OM5 and the EP5 is the new pricing strategy.  That means the upcoming OM6 will be priced above the EP5, maybe well above!!!

D Cox Forum Pro • Posts: 21,558
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
1

vzlnc wrote:

Mirrorless cams are way over priced for now and that will always keep them as a niche market. The accessory prices are ridiculous. Some cams dont have a built in flash. Lens prices are close to FF/DX prices or more.

As they should be, if the quality control and choice of materials are the same.

Is it any surprise that the sales are low. After the initial euphoria of the new system, people are back to demanding more bang for the buck which mirrorless definitely is not high on. Lot of people care more about price than size and a few more pounds doesnt bother as much as the price. Styling and aesthetics are definitely a factor, which is why mirrorless do sell, but that can only take it so far. But I am surprised even Panasonic is not doing so good. They have a very good P&S lineup and very good mirrorless lineup which are also affordable. It could be that the company does not have proper retail chain to support their product.

zxaar Veteran Member • Posts: 4,274
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
8

AllMankind wrote:

vzlnc wrote:

Mirrorless cams are way over priced for now and that will always keep them as a niche market. The accessory prices are ridiculous.

If you think it's bad now, wait.  Many are saying the EP5 is over priced for what it is, especially when compared to the OM5.  But wait, maybe Olympus under priced the OM5 and the EP5 is the new pricing strategy.  That means the upcoming OM6 will be priced above the EP5, maybe well above!!!

Thats nothing, once the OM6 will be released, see the flood of threads in m43 forums how fanboys people are pre-ordering that and how OM6 is the new best camera in market. (current being OM5).

These fanboys people would buy anything their belowed company may dish out at any price point.

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jonikon Veteran Member • Posts: 7,028
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
5

And mirrorless cameras will continue to lose out to DSLRs until they employ a phase detection focus system that works as well with moving subjects as DSLRs do. Who wants to spend thousands of dollars for a camera and lenses that produce out of focus photos of their kids playing  sports, or whatever kind of action they may be involved in. Better and faster auto focus is the biggest single advantage DSLRS have over mirrorless, (with the exception of the Nikon 1 cameras that also employ fast PDAF focusing), and anyone looking to spend $1000 on a camera probably knows this important difference, and If they don't, they will find it out the hard OOF way. Without phase detection focusing, the mirrorless cameras are doomed to mediocrity in both performance and sales.

- Jon

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Abrak Veteran Member • Posts: 4,130
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
3

ed2002 wrote:

Olympus plans on selling 300,000 interchangeable lens cameras this year, and was profitable this quarter.

Olympus might have been profitable overall last quarter but the imaging division made a 'record loss'. In fact it lost more in 4Q than in the previous 3Qs combined. On sales of 19.9bn yen, the imaging division made a pretty staggering loss of 14.3bn yen.

Just some other facts and figures from the results...

Sales of compacts were 57bn yen against a forecast (made this time last year) of 91bn. Sales of compacts have fallen from 120bn Yen over the last 3 years. Olympus is 'substantially reducing' the number of compact camera models it is producing and will cease production of lower priced models. For the current year they expect compact camera sales to fall from 57bn to 40bn yen. ....Sounds vaguely realistic.....

Perhaps more worrying is 'mirrorless'. Olympus achieved sales of 38bn yen well below their forecast of 43bn yen made at the beginning of the year. Given what must have been a very successful OMD launch that's not too impressive.

Olympus expects 'strong growth' in mirrorless 'in conjunction with market trends'. (yeah right!) They are forecasting mirrorless sales to increase from 38bn yen to 50bn yen (ho, ho, ho).

They are also forecasting their gross margin for the imaging business to increase from 33% to 44% (I am not making this up) and SG&A expenses to fall 20% from 56bn yen to 44bn yen.  The combined effect of these (massively heroic) assumptions is a forecast to move from losses of 23.3bn yen to breakeven.

The problem Olympus faces is that last year it made a loss equivalent to 20% of sales! And the only way you can get back to breakeven from there is by making hopeless optimistic forecasts for sales, gross margin and your ability to cut expenses.

peevee1 Veteran Member • Posts: 6,247
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
5

rattymouse wrote:

As seen at sansmirror.com, the final numbers are in for mirrorless last year and the results are NOT pretty.  The main mirrorless players are either losing enormous money (Panasonic and Olympus),

Olympus was profitable in 2012. Both as a whole and its mirrorless line.

peevee1 Veteran Member • Posts: 6,247
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

vzlnc wrote:

Mirrorless cams are way over priced for now

Depends. Olympus E-PM2 or Sony NEX-F3 are about $400 with kit lenses right now and give you better image quality than most DSLRs (and by most I mean sales numbers, where most are taken by Canon APS-C DSLRs and the likes of Nikon D3000/D3100 and Sony A37).

Fuji is just blip on a radar, none of their mirrorless cameras are in top 20 sold among mirrorless and represent more that 1% of the market.

nikkorwatcher Contributing Member • Posts: 684
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

maybe the problem is that mirrorless is following developments in sensors too closely and the product lines change too fast? Every time they design a camera and fabrication process they have to make the money back. For a production run of a year that's difficult. They're squeezed in the middle re price and quality.

Abrak Veteran Member • Posts: 4,130
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering
3

peevee1 wrote:

Olympus was profitable in 2012. Both as a whole and its mirrorless line.

Dont be ridiculous. How could their mirrorless division be profitable.

In 4Q the mirrorless division made sales of 7bn yen and the imaging division lost 14.3bn yen. For the mirrorless to have made 1 yen of profit, the compact business would have had to generate losses of over 100% of sales revenue.

peevee1 Veteran Member • Posts: 6,247
Re: Mirrorless Takes Another Hammering

Abrak wrote:

peevee1 wrote:

Olympus was profitable in 2012. Both as a whole and its mirrorless line.

Dont be ridiculous. How could their mirrorless division be profitable.

In 4Q the mirrorless division made sales of 7bn yen and the imaging division lost 14.3bn yen. For the mirrorless to have made 1 yen of profit, the compact business would have had to generate losses of over 100% of sales revenue.

And what is surprising? Prices for P&S are really low, and sales too - combine with still high number of released cameras (i.e. high R&D and other fixed costs), and you can have 200 or 300% loss compared to sales for those P&S.

BTW, where have you got the 7bn yen for Oly mirrorless sales? Because Oly has something like 30% of mirrorless market (at least in Japan) all for themselves, not even counting lenses (where margins on some products like 12/2 and 75/1.8 and 14-150 are huge).

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