A breather and Perspective ( A bit OT )

Started Dec 22, 2012 | Discussions
dave gaines
dave gaines Veteran Member • Posts: 9,183
Smoke and mirrors, next upgrade & interesting numbers

Chris Mak wrote:

sandy b wrote:

What i found interesting were the CIPA numbers through Oct:

  • DSLR shipments Japan: 814k (6%)
  • DSLR shipments outside Japan: 12.9m (94%)
  • Mirrorless shipments Japan: 582k (19.1%)
  • Mirrorless shipments outside Japan: 2.46m (80.9%)

..., I do not think they are changing as fast as some see it.

You almost sound surprised by these numbers! ...

The "hybrid" (very secret...) project sounds nice and cutting edge, but just like pen mirrorless should have been an addition instead of replacement, the hybrid, if Olympus is so enamored with that, should be an addition. I still feel, and will probably always, that that makes far better business sense than dumping Dslr aplomb. Let your customers choose..

What Olympus should have done:

-release an updated Dslr as soon as they had the new Sony sensor. Not necessarily an E7, but an E-50. Then a year later (last Photokina) release an E-7. No need for more than two Dslr models: an E-xx priced around 700 euros, and an E-x around 1400-1500 euros

-release the OM-D (which they did).

-release one or at most two updated pens (which they did)

-in due time, release a hybrid camera for the ones who want to merge systems, néxt to mirrorless and Dslr. Only one (pro) model.

-with the very good new sensor, keep longer life cycles for the cameras, it will save R&D.

For anyone who thinks this is a scenario that is commercial suicide: look again at the numbers above....

Hi Chris,

Olympus has not said there will be a hybrid. Only 43Rumors and QUESABESDE said that. Olympus says there will be a camera to support 4/3 lenses by the end of 2013. Nothing more. See the quote of the interview in my post above.

Lots of people have said a hybrid adapter with a mirror for PDAF is not possible due to the space requirements and available setback. Now lots of people, maybe these same people, are hoping for a hybrid because Rumors suggest it's coming.

I find it funny that you suggest Olympus should have released one or two more DSLR's betwen the E-5 (2 years ago) and the next E-x 4/3 release a year from now. Then you suggest the more intelligent, economical approach - keeping your camera longer, with life cycles more like what Olympus typically offers, every 3 to 4 years. As I recall, everyone was happy to get an upgraded sensor in the E-5 when it was released and there wasn't so much whinning until the EM-5 came out with a better sensor. Of course, we'd all like to buy a DSLR that keeps up with the latest competition and lasts at least 4 years. The later is harder to achieve if people are upgrade-hungry and demand the latest greatest gadget.

I don't expect an upgrade to the OMD by the end of 2013, within 18 months of the EM-5.

I agree with your basic premise: that we should expect a new DSLR when they release a new 4/3 model in 2013, Olympus should offer no more than two options in a DSLR at competitive price points (E-xx & E-x) and that we should be able to use our investment in camera bodies for more than a couple of seasons.

Like Collin and a few others, I am heavily invested in 4/3 HG and SHG lenses. I have lots of Olympus flash accessories: ring flash, FP-1 power grip, SHV-1 power pack, multiple flash units, cables and so forth, most of which should work on any new Olympus system with the right cords. And m4/3 doesn't offer any of these top flash accessories as of today. But if Olympus actually abandons 4/3 for a miniature micro4/3 with an adapter I would probably take a loss on all of the equipment I have and try to adopt a new system that will continue to support my lens & accessory investment.

We should expect at least 3 to 4 years from our camera bodies and a much longer life from our lenses. I hate the planned obsolescence of consumer electronics and yearly cycles of new must-have gadgets. I still own a flip phone...

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Dave
No thought exists without an image. Socrates
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 dave gaines's gear list:dave gaines's gear list
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Chris Mak Senior Member • Posts: 2,022
Re: Smoke and mirrors, next upgrade & interesting numbers

dave gaines wrote:

Hi Chris,

Olympus has not said there will be a hybrid. Only 43Rumors and QUESABESDE said that. Olympus says there will be a camera to support 4/3 lenses by the end of 2013. Nothing more. See the quote of the interview in my post above.

Lots of people have said a hybrid adapter with a mirror for PDAF is not possible due to the space requirements and available setback. Now lots of people, maybe these same people, are hoping for a hybrid because Rumors suggest it's coming.

I find it funny that you suggest Olympus should have released one or two more DSLR's betwen the E-5 (2 years ago) and the next E-x 4/3 release a year from now. Then you suggest the more intelligent, economical approach - keeping your camera longer, with life cycles more like what Olympus typically offers, every 3 to 4 years. As I recall, everyone was happy to get an upgraded sensor in the E-5 when it was released and there wasn't so much whinning until the EM-5 came out with a better sensor. Of course, we'd all like to buy a DSLR that keeps up with the latest competition and lasts at least 4 years. The later is harder to achieve if people are upgrade-hungry and demand the latest greatest gadget.

I don't expect an upgrade to the OMD by the end of 2013, within 18 months of the EM-5.

I agree with your basic premise: that we should expect a new DSLR when they release a new 4/3 model in 2013, Olympus should offer no more than two options in a DSLR at competitive price points (E-xx & E-x) and that we should be able to use our investment in camera bodies for more than a couple of seasons.

Like Collin and a few others, I am heavily invested in 4/3 HG and SHG lenses. I have lots of Olympus flash accessories: ring flash, FP-1 power grip, SHV-1 power pack, multiple flash units, cables and so forth, most of which should work on any new Olympus system with the right cords. And m4/3 doesn't offer any of these top flash accessories as of today. But if Olympus actually abandons 4/3 for a miniature micro4/3 with an adapter I would probably take a loss on all of the equipment I have and try to adopt a new system that will continue to support my lens & accessory investment.

We should expect at least 3 to 4 years from our camera bodies and a much longer life from our lenses. I hate the planned obsolescence of consumer electronics and yearly cycles of new must-have gadgets. I still own a flip phone...

Hi Dave,

I really hope you are right in your reasoning!

My own reasoning may sound inconsequent, I'm very much in favor of limiting new releases and keeping sound life cycles, however, in their tie to Panasonic, Olympus had come to lag one or rather two sensor generations behind. Their refusal so far, to put the new and superior sensor in any kind of Dslr body is finally definitely scaring me off, because I do not care at all for miniaturization, and just as little about EVF. Olympus knows the cards are being redealt with their new sensor, that perplexed all of us, but we all know we have to buy a Pen or Omd camera to be able to use it.

I'm giving up myself, I had actually secretly hoped to reinvest in SHG glass again, along the 150+ec-20 I still own, but I cannot shake the feeling Olympus is waiting in the sidelines for people to let 4/3 go

Photokina and the latest interviews have only strengthened that feeling.

I seriously hope I'm wrong, and will gladly be proven wrong!

Chris

 Chris Mak's gear list:Chris Mak's gear list
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