A breather and Perspective ( A bit OT )

Started Dec 22, 2012 | Discussions
Chris Mak Senior Member • Posts: 2,122
Re: Some interesting numbers
1

sandy b wrote:

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/bcns-preliminary-2012-numbe.html

What i found interesting were the CIPA numbers through Oct:

  • DSLR shipments Japan: 814k (6%)
  • DSLR shipments outside Japan: 12.9m (94%)
  • Mirrorless shipments Japan: 582k (19.1%)
  • Mirrorless shipments outside Japan: 2.46m (80.9%)

Clearly mirrorless are on the rise, but they have a LONG way to go befor they overtake dslrs, and Canon and Nikon have the lions share of the DSLR market. So while things are changing, I do not think they are changing as fast as some see it.

You almost sound surprised by these numbers! Of course Dslr cameras are here to stay, unless of course Nikon Canon and Pentax are suddenly hit by the mirrorless-only fever, and go Sony style with EVF or even Olympus style with miniaturization on top of it, but something tells me, that if they had wánted to do that, they woúld have already. They have good reasons to keep both worlds apart, and their user base has good reasons to continue buying Dslr's.

The "hybrid" (very secret...) project sounds nice and cutting edge, but just like pen mirrorless should have been an addition instead of replacement, the hybrid, if Olympus is so enamored with that, should be an addition. I still feel, and will probably always, that that makes far better business sense than dumping Dslr aplomb. Let your customers choose..

What Olympus should have done:

-release an updated Dslr as soon as they had the new Sony sensor. Not necessarily an E7, but an E-50. Then a year later (last Photokina) release an E-7. No need for more than two Dslr models: an E-xx priced around 700 euros, and an E-x around 1400-1500 euros

-release the OM-D (which they did).

-release one or at most two updated pens (which they did)

-in due time, release a hybrid camera for the ones who want to merge systems, néxt to mirrorless and Dslr. Only one (pro) model.

-with the very good new sensor, keep longer life cycles for the cameras, it will save R&D.

For anyone who thinks this is a scenario that is commercial suicide: look again at the numbers above....

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Craig from Nevada
Craig from Nevada Veteran Member • Posts: 4,688
Re: Some interesting numbers

Chris Mak wrote:

sandy b wrote:

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/bcns-preliminary-2012-numbe.html

What i found interesting were the CIPA numbers through Oct:

  • DSLR shipments Japan: 814k (6%)
  • DSLR shipments outside Japan: 12.9m (94%)
  • Mirrorless shipments Japan: 582k (19.1%)
  • Mirrorless shipments outside Japan: 2.46m (80.9%)

Clearly mirrorless are on the rise, but they have a LONG way to go befor they overtake dslrs, and Canon and Nikon have the lions share of the DSLR market. So while things are changing, I do not think they are changing as fast as some see it.

You almost sound surprised by these numbers! Of course Dslr cameras are here to stay, unless of course Nikon Canon and Pentax are suddenly hit by the mirrorless-only fever, and go Sony style with EVF or even Olympus style with miniaturization on top of it, but something tells me, that if they had wánted to do that, they woúld have already. They have good reasons to keep both worlds apart, and their user base has good reasons to continue buying Dslr's.

The "hybrid" (very secret...) project sounds nice and cutting edge, but just like pen mirrorless should have been an addition instead of replacement, the hybrid, if Olympus is so enamored with that, should be an addition. I still feel, and will probably always, that that makes far better business sense than dumping Dslr aplomb. Let your customers choose..

What Olympus should have done:

-release an updated Dslr as soon as they had the new Sony sensor. Not necessarily an E7, but an E-50. Then a year later (last Photokina) release an E-7. No need for more than two Dslr models: an E-xx priced around 700 euros, and an E-x around 1400-1500 euros

-release the OM-D (which they did).

-release one or at most two updated pens (which they did)

-in due time, release a hybrid camera for the ones who want to merge systems, néxt to mirrorless and Dslr. Only one (pro) model.

-with the very good new sensor, keep longer life cycles for the cameras, it will save R&D.

For anyone who thinks this is a scenario that is commercial suicide: look again at the numbers above....

It would have been suicide.  Basically, the mirrorless is the Olympus R&D and commercial development.  Olympus is not Sony with money growing on trees.  They reached a fork in the road and made a choice to follow the mirrorless path.

They probably didn't  and still do not have the resources to pursue both.  Indeed Oly is a serious player in the mirrorless market with substantial market share--in a growing market, a market that canikon has largely ignored.  They are where they need to be right now.

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Chris Mak Senior Member • Posts: 2,122
Re: Some interesting numbers

Craig from Nevada wrote:

Chris Mak wrote:

sandy b wrote:

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/bcns-preliminary-2012-numbe.html

What i found interesting were the CIPA numbers through Oct:

  • DSLR shipments Japan: 814k (6%)
  • DSLR shipments outside Japan: 12.9m (94%)
  • Mirrorless shipments Japan: 582k (19.1%)
  • Mirrorless shipments outside Japan: 2.46m (80.9%)

Clearly mirrorless are on the rise, but they have a LONG way to go befor they overtake dslrs, and Canon and Nikon have the lions share of the DSLR market. So while things are changing, I do not think they are changing as fast as some see it.

You almost sound surprised by these numbers! Of course Dslr cameras are here to stay, unless of course Nikon Canon and Pentax are suddenly hit by the mirrorless-only fever, and go Sony style with EVF or even Olympus style with miniaturization on top of it, but something tells me, that if they had wánted to do that, they woúld have already. They have good reasons to keep both worlds apart, and their user base has good reasons to continue buying Dslr's.

The "hybrid" (very secret...) project sounds nice and cutting edge, but just like pen mirrorless should have been an addition instead of replacement, the hybrid, if Olympus is so enamored with that, should be an addition. I still feel, and will probably always, that that makes far better business sense than dumping Dslr aplomb. Let your customers choose..

What Olympus should have done:

-release an updated Dslr as soon as they had the new Sony sensor. Not necessarily an E7, but an E-50. Then a year later (last Photokina) release an E-7. No need for more than two Dslr models: an E-xx priced around 700 euros, and an E-x around 1400-1500 euros

-release the OM-D (which they did).

-release one or at most two updated pens (which they did)

-in due time, release a hybrid camera for the ones who want to merge systems, néxt to mirrorless and Dslr. Only one (pro) model.

-with the very good new sensor, keep longer life cycles for the cameras, it will save R&D.

For anyone who thinks this is a scenario that is commercial suicide: look again at the numbers above....

It would have been suicide. Basically, the mirrorless is the Olympus R&D and commercial development. Olympus is not Sony with money growing on trees. They reached a fork in the road and made a choice to follow the mirrorless path.

They probably didn't and still do not have the resources to pursue both. Indeed Oly is a serious player in the mirrorless market with substantial market share--in a growing market, a market that canikon has largely ignored. They are where they need to be right now.

I won't argue with you Graig, there's no point is there, since things with Olympus went the way they did, and I'm sure théy feel they made the right decision. I wholeheartedly disagree though, and am convinced Olympus would have benefitted in the long rung, had they kept up support for the great 4/3 lens lineup in a better way.

It's only equipment, no great matter once you step back and take a realistic look at it all, but it's also a real hassle switching, and I don't envy Collin and others in similar situations. All may replay the m4/3-hybrid gospel as much as they want, but some will never be happy with the "solutions" Olympus has or has not up their sleeves.

I will look into Sigma for birding...

Chris

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Craig from Nevada
Craig from Nevada Veteran Member • Posts: 4,688
Re: Some interesting numbers

Chris--I agree with you that we will never know. It is purely a hypothetical argument and not a lot of value given the current situation of people such as Colin.

I would also note that the E-620 crowd with their standard grade lenses have been left high and dry.  The difference as we have seen is value of the stranded costs.  People with a standard kit of e-620 and the 14-42 and 40-150mm are not so heavily invested.  Others, such as Colin and Richard who does the weekly bird are pretty heavily invested.

Also, geography has a lot to do with this--for example see Colin's comments on the resale value and the cost of a new system in South Africa. The economics are a little more friendly in the US.  The Sony example is doable provided one could get about 25 cents on the dollar for the used Olympus equipment. This would not be cheap, but not prohibitively expensive as in Colin's case. The good news is that the gear we have still works and is built to last for some time to come.

In terms of the comments from the Oly guy in Spain, I sometimes wonder if the Olympus doesn't send out some trial balloons to test the reaction to certain ideas, such as the hybrid, and keep current users from jumping until they come out with the next model.  I think it is fair to say that once an Olympus user jumps to canikon or sony, they won't be back for a long, long time.

Best to you and your family in 2013.

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Rriley
Rriley Forum Pro • Posts: 21,846
Re: Some interesting numbers

Craig from Nevada wrote:

sandy b wrote:

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/bcns-preliminary-2012-numbe.html

What i found interesting were the CIPA numbers through Oct:

  • DSLR shipments Japan: 814k (6%)
  • DSLR shipments outside Japan: 12.9m (94%)
  • Mirrorless shipments Japan: 582k (19.1%)
  • Mirrorless shipments outside Japan: 2.46m (80.9%)

Clearly mirrorless are on the rise, but they have a LONG way to go befor they overtake dslrs, and Canon and Nikon have the lions share of the DSLR market. So while things are changing, I do not think they are changing as fast as some see it.

Thanks for the numbers. I think it will be interesting to see where the world is in 5 year's time.

I don't have 2007 numbers, but I assume that mirrorless was tiny in 2007.

quite

mFT didnt exist till 2008

I think the point I have been struggling to make is that buying into a system now requires thinking about where the system will be in 5 years (if it will exist).

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Riley
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CollBaxter
OP CollBaxter Forum Pro • Posts: 12,724
Re: Some interesting numbers
1

Craig from Nevada wrote:

Chris--I agree with you that we will never know. It is purely a hypothetical argument and not a lot of value given the current situation of people such as Colin.

I would also note that the E-620 crowd with their standard grade lenses have been left high and dry. The difference as we have seen is value of the stranded costs. People with a standard kit of e-620 and the 14-42 and 40-150mm are not so heavily invested. Others, such as Colin and Richard who does the weekly bird are pretty heavily invested.

Also, geography has a lot to do with this--for example see Colin's comments on the resale value and the cost of a new system in South Africa. The economics are a little more friendly in the US. The Sony example is doable provided one could get about 25 cents on the dollar for the used Olympus equipment. This would not be cheap, but not prohibitively expensive as in Colin's case. The good news is that the gear we have still works and is built to last for some time to come.

In terms of the comments from the Oly guy in Spain, I sometimes wonder if the Olympus doesn't send out some trial balloons to test the reaction to certain ideas, such as the hybrid, and keep current users from jumping until they come out with the next model. I think it is fair to say that once an Olympus user jumps to canikon or sony, they won't be back for a long, long time.

Best to you and your family in 2013.

Howzit Craig.

I think you are correct with the trial balloon theory as only Olympus could dream up gig like that. The thing that worries a lot of us is whether by all this stalling and movements to other systems that we existing 4/3 users are just becoming collateral damage. A lot of the users that are left here are either very heavily spent into 4/3 or could be on the other side of the scale who have scrimped and saved to purchase there 4/3 equipment they have  entry level equipment. An example would be someone with E-5xx/6xx / kit lenses / 70-300 / 50mm / 14-54 or 9-18 / FL36R  . These users thought they had all their bases covered. Olympus says they should switch to m4/3 .

I mentioned these lenses as they will work in a ( sort of ) on m4/3. But now comes the killer . They would want a camera that equals their DSLR and the only one out there is the OMD. A lot of these users do not have the $1500 it would cost to give them the same type of handling of a DSLR . These users are left high and dry and also have the felling that they have been shafted by Olympus. These users are probably abandoning Olympus and getting I.E Nikon D5X00 2/3 lens specials or the Canon ones. I would if I was in that position.( Hell I nearly did in any case)

The figures released in a post on this thread are interesting . Mirror less is showing and Increase but not as big as every one makes out. Remember there will be a equalization of users with some moving to the smaller cameras. But I believe that will slow over the next few years when users find there niche . The 2 big players listen to what their users want and at the moment it DSLR' S . They also have massive ranges of lenses and accessories they have to protect.

If one takes the movement of users from 4/3 to m4/3 how many users moved over due to the smaller format due to the want of a smaller camera or they moved as they though 4/3 was a dead end and Olympus was in trouble. m4/3 also gives the security of 2 vendors. I could be wrong but I believe that a lot of the converters moved because of the fear where 4/3 was going and not necessary for a smaller lighter camera or the format for that matter. So yes Mirror less is becoming popular but not as popular as on the Olympus , Panasonic and Sony forums for obvious reasons. Mirrors less in South Africa and some other countries sucks and I mean all brands. The countries where it does well is in the gadget orientated countries. Gadgets often have a short life cycle . But tools now that's a different story

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Collin
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illy
illy Forum Pro • Posts: 12,160
Re: Some interesting numbers

CollBaxter wrote:

Craig from Nevada wrote:

Chris--I agree with you that we will never know. It is purely a hypothetical argument and not a lot of value given the current situation of people such as Colin.

I would also note that the E-620 crowd with their standard grade lenses have been left high and dry. The difference as we have seen is value of the stranded costs. People with a standard kit of e-620 and the 14-42 and 40-150mm are not so heavily invested. Others, such as Colin and Richard who does the weekly bird are pretty heavily invested.

Also, geography has a lot to do with this--for example see Colin's comments on the resale value and the cost of a new system in South Africa. The economics are a little more friendly in the US. The Sony example is doable provided one could get about 25 cents on the dollar for the used Olympus equipment. This would not be cheap, but not prohibitively expensive as in Colin's case. The good news is that the gear we have still works and is built to last for some time to come.

In terms of the comments from the Oly guy in Spain, I sometimes wonder if the Olympus doesn't send out some trial balloons to test the reaction to certain ideas, such as the hybrid, and keep current users from jumping until they come out with the next model. I think it is fair to say that once an Olympus user jumps to canikon or sony, they won't be back for a long, long time.

Best to you and your family in 2013.

Howzit Craig.

I think you are correct with the trial balloon theory as only Olympus could dream up gig like that. The thing that worries a lot of us is whether by all this stalling and movements to other systems that we existing 4/3 users are just becoming collateral damage. A lot of the users that are left here are either very heavily spent into 4/3 or could be on the other side of the scale who have scrimped and saved to purchase there 4/3 equipment they have entry level equipment. An example would be someone with E-5xx/6xx / kit lenses / 70-300 / 50mm / 14-54 or 9-18 / FL36R . These users thought they had all their bases covered. Olympus says they should switch to m4/3 .

I mentioned these lenses as they will work in a ( sort of ) on m4/3. But now comes the killer . They would want a camera that equals their DSLR and the only one out there is the OMD. A lot of these users do not have the $1500 it would cost to give them the same type of handling of a DSLR . These users are left high and dry and also have the felling that they have been shafted by Olympus. These users are probably abandoning Olympus and getting I.E Nikon D5X00 2/3 lens specials or the Canon ones. I would if I was in that position.( Hell I nearly did in any case)

The figures released in a post on this thread are interesting . Mirror less is showing and Increase but not as big as every one makes out. Remember there will be a equalization of users with some moving to the smaller cameras. But I believe that will slow over the next few years when users find there niche . The 2 big players listen to what their users want and at the moment it DSLR' S . They also have massive ranges of lenses and accessories they have to protect.

If one takes the movement of users from 4/3 to m4/3 how many users moved over due to the smaller format due to the want of a smaller camera or they moved as they though 4/3 was a dead end and Olympus was in trouble. m4/3 also gives the security of 2 vendors. I could be wrong but I believe that a lot of the converters moved because of the fear where 4/3 was going and not necessary for a smaller lighter camera or the format for that matter. So yes Mirror less is becoming popular but not as popular as on the Olympus , Panasonic and Sony forums for obvious reasons. Mirrors less in South Africa and some other countries sucks and I mean all brands. The countries where it does well is in the gadget orientated countries. Gadgets often have a short life cycle . But tools now that's a different story

shame your in S.A. i'd gladly loan you one of my Nikons with a 500mm prime to have a bash with, for better or worse you could see if it was something you might want to buy into....or not, i could chuck it out the airplane when i fly close to you in march if you wanted?

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Craig from Nevada
Craig from Nevada Veteran Member • Posts: 4,688
Re: Some interesting numbers

illy wrote:


shame your in S.A. i'd gladly loan you one of my Nikons with a 500mm prime to have a bash with, for better or worse you could see if it was something you might want to buy into....or not, i could chuck it out the airplane when i fly close to you in march if you wanted?

LOL

I am left with this vision of the coca cola bottle dropped out of the plane in the old film, "The Gods Must Be Crazy".  In this case it is the Nikon lens.  I would only note that the bottle, cause many troubles and was tossed over the edge of the world at the end of the movie.

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TrapperJohn Forum Pro • Posts: 16,488
It's the long term effect...
1

Right now, mirrorless seems to be growing at the expense of the low end dslr's.

And therein lies the long term effect, because it's those low end dslr's that are C/N's big cash cow, their most profitable lines, due largely to volume of sales.

As C/N lose sales on the low end, they lose a big chunk of R&D funding, while advanced mirrorless picks up speed and uses the profits to further close the gap. The size gap, on the other hand, is not closing.

In fact, DSLR's are hitting a bit of a plateau, we're already seeing less increases in capability over last year's model, or the year before. There is only one area where a dslr can still see dramatic improvement, and that is size. Hence, the rising popularity of the micro/mirrorless system, the same capability in a much smaller package.

No, the DSLR is not dead, won't be dead for a while, might not every be dead (but we didn't think we'd see film die, certainly not as quickly as it did). However, the dslr's development is slowing, while advanced micro systems are picking up speed.

sandy b
sandy b Veteran Member • Posts: 9,065
I don't know
1

Nikon is forcasting 7 million dslr sales this year, and ten million lens, up from last year. The vast majority of those are D7000 and below. I'm just not seeing this erosion yet.

http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201210_e.pdf

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HarjTT Senior Member • Posts: 1,048
Re: Some interesting numbers

Hi Col

You've made some pretty fine points and theres been some interesting comments made through out the thread so I'm glad you took the time to make the original post.

Right now nobody knows what Oly are up to with regards to FT and what happens next to any E-X successor and that latest was another "pigs ear of a marketing attempt".

Supposing the E-7 is a hybrid cam (what does that acutally refer to ?) and gets priced at say $1700-2000 and then needs an special adapter to use FT lenses at say approx $200-500, bringing the price up to say a $1900-$2500. Do you bite the bullet and take the risk that the whole setup will work well with the HG/SHGs ?

CollBaxter
OP CollBaxter Forum Pro • Posts: 12,724
Re: It's the long term effect...

TrapperJohn wrote:

Right now, mirrorless seems to be growing at the expense of the low end dslr's.

And therein lies the long term effect, because it's those low end dslr's that are C/N's big cash cow, their most profitable lines, due largely to volume of sales.

As C/N lose sales on the low end, they lose a big chunk of R&D funding, while advanced mirrorless picks up speed and uses the profits to further close the gap. The size gap, on the other hand, is not closing.

In fact, DSLR's are hitting a bit of a plateau, we're already seeing less increases in capability over last year's model, or the year before. There is only one area where a dslr can still see dramatic improvement, and that is size. Hence, the rising popularity of the micro/mirrorless system, the same capability in a much smaller package.

No, the DSLR is not dead, won't be dead for a while, might not every be dead (but we didn't think we'd see film die, certainly not as quickly as it did). However, the dslr's development is slowing, while advanced micro systems are picking up speed.

I see it more as a equalization of the market. Those going to smaller small mirror less are going there because the product exists . As I said previously it's only on a few forums where there are mirror less products that the consensus is the mirror less is going to take over the world. Is that because its fact or because it's protection of a purchase or a path that has been chosen. I have seen the bodies and I have seen the lenses . Until there is some major break through in physics a big good lens will wipe a small good lens. From that point mirror less will not be small and although there are advantages there are also disadvantages. So we land up with a dozen of one and 12 of anther.

I do not see Sony's SLT storming the market with lots of adopters because it mirror less. They appear to be marking time. The smaller stuff yes but that's more for convenience than technology. What you can do on a small one you could probably do better on a big one.

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Olymore
Olymore Senior Member • Posts: 1,751
Re: Just more speculation from a m4/3 adopter

Dave, Apologies for the late reply.

I have been reading these forums since 2006 and only started posting recently.

Look back at the people posting from then who have moved on.

I still own an Olympus E400, E3, E620 and E30 and eight lenses as well as a developing M43 system.

I think you failed to understand 'my rant'.

I personally would buy an Olympus DSLR (as long as it was not E5 size) if they were to introduce one. However Oly have limited resources and M43 is outselling fourthirds by a huge margin. Lots of Canikon people are moving across and it is popular.

So why would a CEO or board of a (financially threatened) company give the go ahead  to produce a camera (exclusively) for an unpopular system with a shrinking user base for which they are highly unlikely to make money from ?

Unless you think there are a huge base of Olympus DSLR users waiting to jump back into the system ?

As far as lenses go you fail to realise that SHG lenses that are big and heavy contradicted the whole reason that Olympus chose their smaller sensor. If I wanted to carry around lenses that big I would buy a FF camera and get far superior results at the same price.

Olympus has failed with four thirds.  I think it's a shame but it's partly of their own making.

This refusal to accept that (based on your comments)  is rather tragic

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Messier Object Veteran Member • Posts: 7,324
Collin

CollBaxter wrote:
 Until there is some major break through in physics a big good lens will wipe a small good lens. From that point mirror less will not be small and although there are advantages there are also disadvantages. So we land up with a dozen of one and 12 of anther.

Agree on this.   And no amount of in-camera soft correction can recover details lost by diffraction softening

My perspective for what it's worth . . .

If the E-5 in 2010 had had a brand new sensor, rather than the 2008-technology Pano E-30 sensor they used, then we E-Xxx users wouldn't be so itchy for a new model and we would not be pressing Oly so hard for a new body to support 4/3 lenses. But the reality is the sensor in the E-5 is now 5 years old and is so far behind the OMD's Sony sensor that many users are starting to feel the need to upgrade.  And some Oly DSLR shooters who just can't accept the small size and EVF of the OMD have jumped to canikon. The rest of us are holding out on a promise of something new later this year, or resigned to run out the shutter count of their current bodies into an uncertain 2nd hand future being content with the performance of what we have and what we can afford.

Collin, I am even more invested in 4/3 than you now that I have the ZD300. And I have to say that I can't ever see APS or FF giving me the reach/performance I get with 4/3 and the ZD300mm.

So I will wait for the EM-5Pro and I will adapt to it, or the one after that. In the meantime I keep shooting my E-5 and E-30s and I will get better at using the adjustment brush in LR4 to sweep away the noise from bright blue sky and under-wing shadow on my birds.

Now this might sound a bit odd, but I also have a new toy, a brand new 5D3 which will fill a big gap in my astro shooting. A 4/3 sensor can cover only 1/2 the image circle of my telescope and I dearly missed the FF capability of my OM system. I never wanted one of the dedicated astro imagers (like the SBIG etc) so I'd been looking for a clean 5D1 on ebay, and was keeping an eye on used 5D2 prices which had been coming down. Enter the wife (again) who hands me a wrapped box on Christmas night      I really do need a private ebay account !

I'm not jumping ship.  The Canon won't replace 4/3.  I'll use it for astro, and with my OM macro system and of course video. And wow it can do in-camera stacking of 9 images to produce a combined raw - that alone will cut hours from my astro PP.

I have to say that the ISO performance of a modern FF camera, and the stellar AF of the 5D3 are something to behold. If by some miracle Canon can shave a kilogram off their EF 600mm f/4L before Oly has a new usable body for my ZD300 then I'm gone 

HAPPY 2013 !!!

Peter

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Chris Mak Senior Member • Posts: 2,122
Re: OVF versus EVF
1

CollBaxter wrote:

I do not see Sony's SLT storming the market with lots of adopters because it mirror less. They appear to be marking time. The smaller stuff yes but that's more for convenience than technology. What you can do on a small one you could probably do better on a big one.

On this topic: Pentax has been studying on a FF release, and it is now in the works. In an interview from over a year ago, the main product developer stated that he was in favor of an EVF  in the newly to be developed FF camera. In his latest interview from only a few weeks ago, he has revealed that the FF camera will have an OVF instead of an EVF, because research has shown, that the large majority of Dslr users prefer and want an OVF, and he puts his own preference second to that of the ones who will be buying and using the new FF dslr camera.

Pentax appears to listen a lot to their user base, and I'm not saying that to beat on Olympus, but the approach actually exists, and reality is definitely slower to change than some radically minded m4/3 supporters would want to make us believe.....

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CollBaxter
OP CollBaxter Forum Pro • Posts: 12,724
Re: Collin

Messier Object wrote:

CollBaxter wrote:
Until there is some major break through in physics a big good lens will wipe a small good lens. From that point mirror less will not be small and although there are advantages there are also disadvantages. So we land up with a dozen of one and 12 of anther.

Agree on this. And no amount of in-camera soft correction can recover details lost by diffraction softening

My perspective for what it's worth . . .

If the E-5 in 2010 had had a brand new sensor, rather than the 2008-technology Pano E-30 sensor they used, then we E-Xxx users wouldn't be so itchy for a new model and we would not be pressing Oly so hard for a new body to support 4/3 lenses. But the reality is the sensor in the E-5 is now 5 years old and is so far behind the OMD's Sony sensor that many users are starting to feel the need to upgrade. And some Oly DSLR shooters who just can't accept the small size and EVF of the OMD have jumped to canikon. The rest of us are holding out on a promise of something new later this year, or resigned to run out the shutter count of their current bodies into an uncertain 2nd hand future being content with the performance of what we have and what we can afford.

Collin, I am even more invested in 4/3 than you now that I have the ZD300. And I have to say that I can't ever see APS or FF giving me the reach/performance I get with 4/3 and the ZD300mm.

So I will wait for the EM-5Pro and I will adapt to it, or the one after that. In the meantime I keep shooting my E-5 and E-30s and I will get better at using the adjustment brush in LR4 to sweep away the noise from bright blue sky and under-wing shadow on my birds.

Now this might sound a bit odd, but I also have a new toy, a brand new 5D3 which will fill a big gap in my astro shooting. A 4/3 sensor can cover only 1/2 the image circle of my telescope and I dearly missed the FF capability of my OM system. I never wanted one of the dedicated astro imagers (like the SBIG etc) so I'd been looking for a clean 5D1 on ebay, and was keeping an eye on used 5D2 prices which had been coming down. Enter the wife (again) who hands me a wrapped box on Christmas night I really do need a private ebay account !

I'm not jumping ship. The Canon won't replace 4/3. I'll use it for astro, and with my OM macro system and of course video. And wow it can do in-camera stacking of 9 images to produce a combined raw - that alone will cut hours from my astro PP.

I have to say that the ISO performance of a modern FF camera, and the stellar AF of the 5D3 are something to behold. If by some miracle Canon can shave a kilogram off their EF 600mm f/4L before Oly has a new usable body for my ZD300 then I'm gone

HAPPY 2013 !!!

Peter

Howzit Peter.

Firstly A happy and prosperous new year to you and your family.

Secondly can we swop wives.

Congrats on the 5DIII . I played with one at my daughters  wedding its a fine bit of equipment. Yep for astro  stuff  you need lots of MP and as you say sensor coverage.

As to the Olympus stuff a ZD300 puts you into a whole new league compared to the rest of us.    Actually if I owned a ZD300 now I would be even more nervous than I am now. Being a wild life shooter you know the majority use C&N and in South Africa more C than N and these products are perfect for the type of stuff I do. Using Olympus has major advantages but also major disadvantages. Actually I could use my suit anthology quite well on the Olympus cameras in wild life.

The most frustrating point is 4/3 all there just waiting for the camera or sensor to put it on a equal footing with the other systems ( Wildlife Nature) . But we now have this impasse. As to the promise well Olympus had better hold to it because if they don't it will cause then major problems down the line as to product acceptance and loyalty. We will just have to wait and see.

In the mean time enjoy all your cameras.

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Collin
(Aficionado Olympus DSLR )
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CollBaxter
OP CollBaxter Forum Pro • Posts: 12,724
If I was the nww Olympus CEO
1

Olymore wrote:

Dave, Apologies for the late reply.

I have been reading these forums since 2006 and only started posting recently.

Look back at the people posting from then who have moved on.

I still own an Olympus E400, E3, E620 and E30 and eight lenses as well as a developing M43 system.

I think you failed to understand 'my rant'.

I personally would buy an Olympus DSLR (as long as it was not E5 size) if they were to introduce one. However Oly have limited resources and M43 is outselling fourthirds by a huge margin. Lots of Canikon people are moving across and it is popular.

So why would a CEO or board of a (financially threatened) company give the go ahead to produce a camera (exclusively) for an unpopular system with a shrinking user base for which they are highly unlikely to make money from ?

Unless you think there are a huge base of Olympus DSLR users waiting to jump back into the system ?

As far as lenses go you fail to realise that SHG lenses that are big and heavy contradicted the whole reason that Olympus chose their smaller sensor. If I wanted to carry around lenses that big I would buy a FF camera and get far superior results at the same price.

Olympus has failed with four thirds. I think it's a shame but it's partly of their own making.

This refusal to accept that (based on your comments) is rather tragic

Firstly I would check my contract.

I suppose we all write on this forum for self gratification , myself included.

Why should Olympus not abandon 4/3 . Well after the  stunt they pulled playing  the shell game  I think the confidence and trust in the company is seriously damaged.  Their reputation as a honest company is at rock bottom well maybe better than this time last year but people have long memories. Dropping a whole lot of users is really not going to  enamor anyone (Maybe Canon and Nikon) . Olympus is small in South Africa and a lot of people don't know they even make cameras. They also don't know about the rear end inspection stuff as they normally have their eye tightly shuts and don't inspect the manufactures name on the device before insertion. What  some of them do know about is the Olympus  scandal (We do read the wall street journal and watch the foreign exchanges etc. )  .  I do not believe that Olympus can abandon a product and leave people whole have invested money in products high and dry.  It will damage to their already tarnished reputation. As some where there will be a small notice/column  that would go 'Olympus  cuts product line etc.' and being media it would mention stranded users. etc.

As to the CEO thing . Well if I was the CEO of Olympus I would be looking at people who would be spending tens of thousands of  dollars on a camera system. It's not uncommon to hear  on this forum from the users that are left that have spent $20K-$30K  on 4/3 equipment. To replace the stuff I use every day would costs me $15K but in total I recon I have spent about $20K on Olympus or 4/3 products over the years. These are the type of users I would be looking at. And before you go on about the death of 4/3 and no users  go and look at the price of a second hand E-5. Actually I pay about the same price for a second hand E-500 ( 8 years old ) than I do for a used pen ( 4 years old).  Where do you think the second hand stuff goes. Does Olympus secretly buy it up and trash it.

If I look at the users on the m4/3 forum there are a lot of the basic entry level users many who I would put money on that will not be there in a few years as they have moved off to a new toy. Olympus also has to compete with Panasonic in their own playground and share the market .  Companies like Sony and Panasonic have cameras  as a division ,  as the majority of there in income is derived elsewhere. Olympus is a imaging company and it would be a blow to there image and esteem never mind to the long term direction and customer confidence .  Lets also look at it this way Olympus was a major DSLR player. Yes some purchased  and found the equipment wanting  and moved on. A lot of these people have not been kind to Olympus products. Well if we are dumped do you think we will leave singing Olympus praise and recommending any of there products. As much as you say these are the harsh realities . Well so is most of what I wrote above. To keep the few friends I have the last thing I would do at this moment in time is recommend Olympus cameras or any 4/3 - m4/3 product ( I get asked on a weekly basis). If I was the CEO of Olympus I would be worried about some of this stuff. Maybe we will be collateral damage and we have been factored into the equation,  time will tell.

Just a though has any one done as survey on the average age of m4/3 users and how many where old OMD users.

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Collin
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Butchy Forum Member • Posts: 99
Re: If I was the nww Olympus CEO

I think the group of Oly 4/3 diehards is too small to have influence. I do feel abandoned by Oly but in fact I think it was the market (users), which abandoned Olympus (I do not blame the market of course). If the sales were on the adequate level (enough to make the profit) they would probably keep on the production.

They will eventually release a hybrid camera (no question) and officially say it is fully supporting SHG lenses (this is their way to fix the loyalty issue). Whether it would be to your and mine satisfaction or not, it doesn’t really matter, marketing wise they will be done. Most 43 users will be more than happy, as they already are quite happy with OMD (many are saying SHG’s are not a problem on OMD).

I will be very, very surprised if they release 43 camera. In fact I will be less surprised if they start FF system. They may do it just to have a pro equipment producer image and the FF lenses they will probably produce for Sony anyway.

My strategy for now is:

-        do not buy any new/used Olympus lenses no matter how tempting is the price

-        continue slow research on Canikon – find out what I really need

-        no decision before middle 2013 (probably in the end of 2013)

-        shoot like hell  with the current equipment.

Rriley
Rriley Forum Pro • Posts: 21,846
Re: If I was the nww Olympus CEO

Butchy wrote:

I think the group of Oly 4/3 diehards is too small to have influence. I do feel abandoned by Oly but in fact I think it was the market (users), which abandoned Olympus (I do not blame the market of course). If the sales were on the adequate level (enough to make the profit) they would probably keep on the production.

purely a matter of up-to-date available product
E400, 410, 420, 450 prove they could do small with an SLR, 'if' thats important
Sony proved they could make a better more useful sensor
relax the telecentric requirement (purely political) and they could have had fast primes

so what would be the difference?
they would have began with a 19 lens advantage over mFT
and they might not have lost Sigma as a supplier
they wouldn't have been hunting around for alternatives to pdAF, and all that costs

they have had opportunities to make 43rds all it could be and ditched

They will eventually release a hybrid camera (no question) and officially say it is fully supporting SHG lenses (this is their way to fix the loyalty issue). Whether it would be to your and mine satisfaction or not, it doesn’t really matter, marketing wise they will be done. Most 43 users will be more than happy, as they already are quite happy with OMD (many are saying SHG’s are not a problem on OMD).

I will be very, very surprised if they release 43 camera. In fact I will be less surprised if they start FF system. They may do it just to have a pro equipment producer image and the FF lenses they will probably produce for Sony anyway.

My strategy for now is:

- do not buy any new/used Olympus lenses no matter how tempting is the price

- continue slow research on Canikon – find out what I really need

- no decision before middle 2013 (probably in the end of 2013)

- shoot like hell with the current equipment.

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Riley
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WhyNot
WhyNot Veteran Member • Posts: 7,425
Re: If I was the nww Olympus CEO

CollBaxter wrote:

Why should Olympus not abandon 4/3 . Well after the stunt they pulled playing the shell game I think the confidence and trust in the company is seriously damaged. Their reputation as a honest company is at rock bottom well maybe better than this time last year but people have long memories. Dropping a whole lot of users is really not going to enamor anyone (Maybe Canon and Nikon) . Olympus is small in South Africa and a lot of people don't know they even make cameras. They also don't know about the rear end inspection stuff as they normally have their eye tightly shuts and don't inspect the manufactures name on the device before insertion. What some of them do know about is the Olympus scandal (We do read the wall street journal and watch the foreign exchanges etc. ) . I do not believe that Olympus can abandon a product and leave people whole have invested money in products high and dry. It will damage to their already tarnished reputation. As some where there will be a small notice/column that would go 'Olympus cuts product line etc.' and being media it would mention stranded users. etc.

As to the CEO thing . Well if I was the CEO of Olympus I would be looking at people who would be spending tens of thousands of dollars on a camera system. It's not uncommon to hear on this forum from the users that are left that have spent $20K-$30K on 4/3 equipment. To replace the stuff I use every day would costs me $15K but in total I recon I have spent about $20K on Olympus or 4/3 products over the years. These are the type of users I would be looking at. And before you go on about the death of 4/3 and no users go and look at the price of a second hand E-5. Actually I pay about the same price for a second hand E-500 ( 8 years old ) than I do for a used pen ( 4 years old). Where do you think the second hand stuff goes. Does Olympus secretly buy it up and trash it.

If I look at the users on the m4/3 forum there are a lot of the basic entry level users many who I would put money on that will not be there in a few years as they have moved off to a new toy. Olympus also has to compete with Panasonic in their own playground and share the market . Companies like Sony and Panasonic have cameras as a division , as the majority of there in income is derived elsewhere. Olympus is a imaging company and it would be a blow to there image and esteem never mind to the long term direction and customer confidence . Lets also look at it this way Olympus was a major DSLR player. Yes some purchased and found the equipment wanting and moved on. A lot of these people have not been kind to Olympus products. Well if we are dumped do you think we will leave singing Olympus praise and recommending any of there products. As much as you say these are the harsh realities . Well so is most of what I wrote above. To keep the few friends I have the last thing I would do at this moment in time is recommend Olympus cameras or any 4/3 - m4/3 product ( I get asked on a weekly basis). If I was the CEO of Olympus I would be worried about some of this stuff. Maybe we will be collateral damage and we have been factored into the equation, time will tell.

Just a though has any one done as survey on the average age of m4/3 users and how many where old OMD users.

IMHO, it's not the market, not the camera, not the technology but Olympus' model for selling FTs that failed. My impression is that Olympus' (and Panasonic Photo's) main market is Japan and SE Asia (if I read their blogger's right) Here in the US they appear to market the larger cities on the two coasts and a few stores that apparently have gone out of their way to carry Olympus. They use to sponsor some tennis matches; however, I remember the Canon/Agasi ad campaign but only Olympus' name on a wall. I remember the glossy inserts that Nikon and Canon placed in USA Today—none from Olympus. In middle USA I think of Olympus as P&S sale cameras sold at odd stores like Staples and Office Depot. Canon and Nikon and Sony market to the world – not so much Olympus and Panasonic Photo divisions.... So the lack of market here is not necessarily a consumer decision as much as disinterest by Olympus in these markets. Howevr, FT's demise, I assume, is due to failure of marketing in their home markets.….. ......  I am disappointed but kick myself for not remembering Oly leaving the film market. …. I personalty do not have $!0K spent on Oly equipment but have invested four years in learning to use what I have and at my age those years are valuable to me...... As I've said elsewhere I'll use what I have for a while, will probably keep mFT for travel (or maybe get the next version of the RX100) and maybe return to P&S with something like a FZ200 for my yard birds, but I'll leave that decision for another day

....and Collin you're right – as a consumer and a photo hobbyist I will remember Olympus for apparently abandoning FTs and it's loyal customers. ( Do you know that you can still buy new film cameras from Canon and Nikon?)

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