My 10D successor guess

Started Aug 10, 2004 | Discussions thread
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Ron Parr Forum Pro • Posts: 13,785
My 10D successor guess

Please keep in mind that this is only a guess. I have ZERO inside information. These comments are inspired by discussions here and some information from a Paul Pope posted here indicating 8MP and discouraging 1.3X speculation.

Recall that a while back somebody posted some information from Best Buy indicating a $1500 package including a lens. Let's assume this is right and stick with the assumption that Canon is focused on providing a better value than Nikon - which seems to have been their strategy for a while now. This means that at $1500, you should be getting significantly more than the D70 w/18-70 lens package, which sells for $1300 at Best Buy.

Sensor: 8MP, 1.6X makes a LOT of sense. 8MP is a relatively small increase in density and it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if 2 years worth of sensor R&D could make this possible without any penalties in noise and DR. 8MP puts them ahead of Nikon in the specs. competition and also puts them at least on par with the specs on the high end all-in-one units, e.g., the Pro 1. (IMO, this is an important point that helps avoid consumer confusion since most consumers have a great deal of trouble understanding that not all pixels are created equal.) 1.6X is significantly less expensive to produce than 1.3X because of higher yields and the fact that it can be done on standard lines with standard techniques. Finally, there does not appear to be any competitive pressure pushing Canon to make larger sensors. At this segment of the market, such a move would push Canon towards significantly more expensive sensors and rule out lighter and less expensive bundled lenses in comparison to their competitors.

Bundled Lens: There hasn't been much discussion of this, but my guess would be an EF-S lens that has longer reach than the 18-55 and possibly IS. This part is more speculative, but my guess is that 6MP vs. 8MP won't be enough to justify the $200 price difference with the D70 bundle, given that the D70 seems to have a better lens. Canon will also want to offer a full upgrade path to 300D owners. (If they don't, then I'd expect a lot of discounters bundling the new camera with the Sigma 18-125 instead of the Canon 18-55.) Canon has shown that they can make inexpensive IS lenses with the popular 28-135 IS, and 75-300 IS in the $400 range, so I wouldn't rule out IS. The IS question will depend, in part, on how low they can push the base camera. I'm guessing that they won't want to go above $1200 for the base camera given the $1000 selling point for the base D70. This would put the lens at a $300 premium. Given that Canon offers other IS lenses for $400, a smaller EF-S lens with IS for $300 seems plausible.

(BTW, I'm assuming here that the D100 is basically defunct and that the D70 is the real competitor for the new Canon model. The 300D will primarily try to undercut the D70 on price with falling 300D prices, while the 10D successor will try to excel in features and give 300D consumers confidence that there is a real upgrade path.)

Electronics: I would guess DIGIC 2 and E-TTL 2. There's no reason not to push these through the whole product line. I wouldn't expect much more than 3FPS. The 1D Mk II achieves 8 FPS, in part, through using 8 readout ports on the sensor. This adds complexity to the design of the sensor and the design and manufacture of supporting components. I doubt Canon would incur this expense without market or competitive pressure.

If this is right, or close to right, I would expect a lot of 10D owners to be disappointed because they were hoping for a bigger upgrade. While I antiicipate this, I don't agree with it. Such a product would provide superior value over competitors and this is, really, the most one should expect from a firm.

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