PMA Predictions

Started Jan 19, 2004 | Discussions thread
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Thom Hogan Forum Pro • Posts: 13,659
PMA Predictions

Every year I try to guess what's in store for us Nikon-mount users at PMA based upon my reading of the patents, back channel rumors, etc. Since the pre-PMA DIMA starts in two weeks and that's usually the point where initial press releases start flying, I need to get this out before the announcements, just in case I'm right ; ). Just so everyone knows, I've been mostly wrong in the past. But it's a fun game that everyone can play, and I don't mind wiping up the humble pie that hits the floor...

Nikon Announces:
----------------------------
5700 Coolpix replacement
Maybe a 5400 Coolpix replacement
The new 4mp Coolpix
A shirt-pocket Coolpix (literally)
A novelty Coolpix (may be the shirt-pocket Coolpix)
D70 (on Feb 12th)
18-55mm f/3.5-4.5G or 18-70mm f/3.5-5.6G DX (on Feb 12th)
70-300mm f/4-5.6G AF-S, might be VR

70-180mm f/4-5.6G AF-S Micro-Nikkor (and if not that, than another Micro-Nikkor with AF-S)
Announces ship date of 200-400mm f/4G AF-S VR
N85 (i-TTL added to N80, few other odds and ends)
F105 (i-TTL and 11-sensor added to F100)
D2x (but shipment is far off, maybe as much as fall)
300mm, 400mm, 500mm, 600mm G AF-S VR lenses
At least two other lens announcements
A second i-TTL flash (SB-500?)
That new Coolscans are shipping
Capture 4.5 ; !

What Nikon Won't Announce That We All Want:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
DX PC lenses (20mm f/2.8P PC DX would be nice)
SB-290 i-TTL Macro flash
D100s or D105 (e.g., D100 replacement/update)
i-TTL support for past cameras, in particular D1 series
DSLR Trade-in program
Plug-in hard drive support

Fujifilm Announces:
----------------------------
New shirt-pocket compacts (due for replacing)
F3 Pro
At least one new MF digital back

Kodak Announces:
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New 14n replacement (or is it in addition to?)

Other Relevant Announcements:
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Minolta Announces but doesn't ship DSLR
Pentax Announces but doesn't ship second DSLR

Canon launches 1D, 1Ds, 10D replacements/refinements, perhaps fifth model as well
Canon gets more into the DX lens business

The most oddball rumor I've been hearing a lot lately I'll just pass on, as I don't think it's prediction-worthy: Fujifilm buys the Nikon Imaging business.

Finally, remember that this year we have both PMA and Photokina. Given all the announcements that appear to be coming for PMA, you have to wonder what they have left that they could launch at Photokina (F6, F6, F6, F6, come on, chant with me, F6, F6...)

Well, I feel like I'm betting on 12 the hard way, but since PMA's in Las Vegas, I guess that's appropriate...

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Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
author, Complete Guides to the Nikon D100, D1, D1h, & D1x and Fujifilm S2
http://www.bythom.com

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