My thought is that extended pixels, and larger sensors, are no longer necessary because the dynamic range, Noise at High ISO, and various other conundrums that M43 users have had to tackle over the years are made redundant with AI Post production.
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So if this is true, then perhaps M43's is the sweet spot in regards quality and convenience, now that Post production pretty much negates any benefit larger sensors might have accrued in previous years. Not only that, but the increased DOF characteristics that M43 offers and the 2X natural crop factors might actually count very much in M43's favour, along with the portability of the equipment and lenses because of this.
The way I see it M43 has benefited from the perfect storm of three circumstances meeting at a cross roads:
1) One is the increase in quality of post processing software as you mentioned.
2) The second is the rise of the internet as a viewing platform which reduces the image quality requirements needed in social media
3) The third is the dominance of the cell phone as the main viewing platform has lowered the image quality requirements even more
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So the question then is what is the actual sweet spot, given the revelation in AI post production?... is 16MP actually better than higher pixel sensors in M43 camera, and if so could we begin to see a reversal of the trend towards Mega Pixel OCD, and a return to more modestly priced and compact varieties, with the emphasis turning to AI post production and in camera AI optimization?
One thing maybe not being recognized is all the solutions applied to getting the most from M43 are work arounds that most people would gladly forego.
- Shooting RAW
- Post processing in multiple software packages to get to the final result, sharpening, upscaling, noise reduction, etc..
- Not to mention the other work arounds employed such as getting around the lower dynamic range of the m43 sensor with shooting multiple exposures and blending them in HDR software, or shooting stacked panos and having to combine in software...
It's actually a lot of time, work and financial investment to milk the most out of the M43 format.
Much of this would be reduced or removed through not reducing the sensor mega pixels, but by a nice bump from 20mp to 30mp. That would be a game changer, increase dynamic range, reduce noise, increase image quality a few steps closer to Full Frame sensors while retaining the small weight and size of M43 cameras and lenses and that would be a real revolutionary reduction in the work-arounds and amount of time spent over-coming the short-comings of the current sensor.