Re: Friday rant: The future of Canon RF and 3rd party lenses
3
Jonathan Thill wrote:
sportyaccordy wrote:
Jonathan Thill wrote:
sportyaccordy wrote:
Jonathan Thill wrote:
Leigh A. Wax wrote:
Lisa Horton wrote:
My #.02
The pie is so much smaller now. Even taking more of the pie, it's still a lot less than their share of the larger pie was. I think that they 'need' those lens sales more now than they did in the not so distant past.
Primary marketing strategy for interchangeable lens/Camera manufacturers in the past has been to entice "newbies" to choose, and therefore become invested in their brand; so that when they become "heavily" invested in the brand, they can't afford the loss in switching, and become in effect captive cliental.
Denying options to those already invested in Canon may initially put more beans in the pot; but when potential new buyers become aware that Canon offers them fewer options than both Sony or Nikon, Canons stance may turn out to be "Penny wise-Dollar foolish".:-|
Problem with this "logic" is that the whole market is impacted. In fact the market has lost 93% of its sales since 2010.
The days of the 3rd party are numbered. The smartphone is the villain in this tale.
3rd party has never been better actually, and are probably the best positioned companies in the whole industry. If one camera company dies 3rd party still has 3-4 others to sell to. And there will always be a market for half price glass.
Yeah because they have such a massive addressable market...
When 50% of the market has locked you out you are not in a strong position.
Basic math is still basic math.
Every brand outside of Canon isn't a massive addressable market? You would basically have to believe that Canon will eventually be the only camera brand left for this to make sense. Make it make sense for me.
2010 the Camera market was 120 Million Cameras sold world wide.
2020 That number dropped to just 9 Million.
In 2021 the Camera market was broken down like this:
- Canon = 47.9%
- Sony = 22.1
- Nikon = 13.7%
- Fuji = 5.6%
- Panasonic = 4.4%
- Other = 6.3
While it is true Sony is the leader in Mirrorless Camera sales, Canon is closing the gap and is still the largest player in this segment. This is important because the current addressable market still includes a large install base of DSLR users and that market is not as limited as the MILC in terms of lens offering from 3rd parties.
The basic math is when you look at the fact that MILC is the only segment of the ILC/MILC market that was still growing as of 2021.
Canon "Blocking" 3rd parties may only have a limited impact on the bottom line at Sigma and Tamron right now because they can still sell their legacy portfolio to a large install base of DSLR users. As that install base ages out or goes to MILC the 3rd parties will feel the pinch more and more.
IMO Canon did the math and said
"Nope, we cannot afford to allow someone else to eat our dog food".
It now looks like Nikon has also done that math and I would not be at all surprised to see more restrictions on the Sony systems in the future.
Allowing another company to pouch your sales is not the way to stay in business.
The way to stay in business is being the market leader in image sensors, not only for that small pie of mirrorless ILC cameras, but also for that big pie of all kinds of other devices creating pictures, so so R&D is spread over a lot more sales. That's where the synergy is. Sony benefiting from that synergy and Canon not is the reason Canon is dependent on the "Canon tax" on L glass to earn it's money. The fact Sony has the freedom not to play these closed mount games doesn't mean the market leader in image sensors is the one going bankrupt in this business.
Do you remember the best DSLR of all times? No, not a Canon, the D850. Sony sensor. No Canon DSLR has ever cached up to that one... because of that Sony sensor.
This has been stated over and over again in everyone of these this silly threads on this subject.
- SONY worked with 3rd parties lens makers NOT because they are the NICE guy, they did...
Not did. Sony is still doing it. That's all what matters for now.
...it because they could not compete in a market dominated by Canon and Nikon.
The A9 showed what Sony mirrorless AF had to offer, and the A7III gave it away at a pretty competitive price point. (Canon was trying to sell the 6DmkII those days with those cluttered AF points in the very middle of the frame. Such a lovely shooting process to select the right AF point for your portraits.....) Third party lenses was a strong point for Sony, but it wasn't the only strong point. Sony brought the revolution of fast mirrorless AF, that's how they created their market share, while Canon was just lazy, very very lazy. And that's what the RF-mount is all about: Canon just wants to be lazy again. Sell a great body at a low price, and simply wait until the customer discovers the budget glass isn't gonna give fast shutter speeds for action and/or fast AF and/or good IQ, and cash with every overpriced RF lens they will get afterwards.
