Ladies and gents,
I think Canon has made up its marbles...
https://www.canonrumors.com/there-are-currently-3-eos-r-system-cameras-coming-in-the-second-half-of-2022-cr2/
"maybe a little M50 mixed with some 7D"
https://www.canonwatch.com/canon-patent-rf-s-16-55mm-f-2-8-rf-28-70mm-f-2-8-lenses/
RF-S 16-55MM F/2.8
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Some things to note:
Canon hasn't been kicking out EF-M patents lately, but, is actively kicking out RF-S patents, they're thinking it. One could argue the EF-M lineup is "complete".
Crop is still "needed" or desired for sports and wildlife shooters and not having access to crop on RF glass is a gap that Canon needs to plug.
Canon seems to have a rule that EF-M lenses diameter cannot exceed the mount, approx 55-58mm, making fast zooms a non-starter on the M (which my gripe has been the lack of a f/2.8 zoom on the M) like the RF-S 16-55mm f/2.8 on an EF-M platform. The RF platform by comparison, if you note, all those non L RF lenses diameter? 80mm.
That RF-S 16-55 has no IS; good bet the upcoming R7 is IBIS crop sensor which means it may be the 90D sensor, but, maybe it's a BSI crop sensor with IBIS? Interesting, would marry all the rumors together and is logical.
https://snapshot.canon-asia.com/article/en/full-frame-vs-aps-c-camera-which-should-i-choose
Canon would need to kick out a wide-angle RF-S lens of some kind if they were truly going to phase out the EF-M. Maybe they will, over time.
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2 cents...
I think Canon's going the way of the Z50, and may produce a crop-image based body in RF format, and launch it with a zoom or two like the Z50 and expect folks to "adapt" FF crop glass, natively, for the rest of their needs.
There has been a lot of talk of this over the years but I think it's finally coming. But, I'm having to wrap my head around what it means... I gather it means "dead" glass cropping of FF optics like the RF 50mm f/1.8, which isn't a bad thing in terms of lens choice, but at the same time is in terms of price and compact/light, and likewise the RF 16mm, RF 35mm f/1.8, etc.
This appears to be a sad moment as the M is being sunset, and perhaps Canon is getting out of the crop-glass business for all but some stock lenses which defeats the purpose of the small/light argument for the M, and supposedly RF-S, which won't be I gather.
Perhaps though, Canon will continue producing the M bodies and EF-M glass, and perhaps release an updated set of bodies ala Rebels over time while they "sunset" it? And, the upcoming RF-S body is a just that, a 7D-like solution, but, perhaps it will double as a more pro-oriented crop system by adding a lens or two like the RF-S 16-55 f/2.8? Honestly, that's not such a bad move perhaps. I think Canon can do better than that though. Just my 2 cents again, Samsung NX didn't have it wrong, and still doesn't today for glass; the 16-50 f/2-2.8 and 50-150 f/2.8, are powerful and compact, for what they are and cover most of many folks needs.
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Thoughts from the peanut gallery? What does RF-S really mean?
BTW, Canon could still do a G1X IV, to meet truly compact needs. But I'm not sure the market is responsive to that route.
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PS
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After consideration, this would be an interesting proposition for sports and wildlife shooters; that RF 100-400 becomes 160-640, but is much smaller, lighter and cheaper than the RF 100-500L and EF 100-400L. However conversely, Canon can't make something as small/light as the M+55-200 setup, and likewise, wide angle options, will be interesting as by Canon's admission and physics, wide angle lenses in particular are going to work better natively on the M vs an RF-S I gather. That 11-22 just isn't going out of style anymore than the 55-200 when it comes to the punch it offers for weight, size and price. The R7 just opens up crop to RF glass and 80mm diameter RF-S lens options which impacts a fast zoom. Canon can also do glass for RF-S that's engineered to be software-corrected; they can't for the M as Canon is strict when it comes to backwards compatibility. The original M probably won't support the new corner corrections of say that "sweet 16" RF 16 f/2.8 for example. Likewise, That RF-S 16-55 f/2.8 doesn't appear to have IS, with IBIS, they don't need it and can make the lens smaller, lighter than an image stabilized fast zoom for M with it. Lastly, the R7 is probably weather sealed, that RF-S 16-55 f/2.8 may be as well. None of the M bodies or glass is weather sealed. I can see Canon is trying to meet multiple wants/needs here.
Things get a little fuzzy when comparing an R7 that's in a M50 form factor + RF-S 16-55 f/2.8 vs the RP + 24-105 f/4-7.1 though. The latter will be better in low light, the former, will have crop advantages. A tool for everyone I suppose, but, again, an M, if they "broke the rules" could've too.
I can see the advantage for reach, but otherwise? There's a case for the M, even with the existence of an R7 and fast crop zoom for it.
There is a trend here though... R7 and RF-S 16-55 f/2.8? $$$$USD. Shift from lower cost $$$USD options to higher cost options. R7 is likely more than a grand. The RF-S 16-55 f/2.8? Likewise.
