D5, A9… or waiting for Z9 (sports photography)

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primeshooter
primeshooter Veteran Member • Posts: 6,644
Re: D5, A9… or waiting for Z9 (sports photography)
4

T O Shooter wrote:

TOF guy wrote:

T O Shooter wrote:

TOF guy wrote:

T O Shooter wrote:

They may drag themselves back into the game. But they'll never drag themselves to the top of the game. That's another ship that has sailed.

Based on? Is there some law of physics that says that Nikon cannot design AF as well as any of its competitors?

#1 - This cannot continue

https://www.digitalcameraworld.com/uk/news/nikon-annual-report-dollar262-million-losses-but-new-z-mount-lenses-promised

Another big loss. $262 million.

It won't continue: it's a one time restructuration cost (likely most of it is compensation for workers being laid off.)

They had a one time restructuring cost in another recent year end as well. After one, it's probably not a "one time" anything.

I've worked for the same Company for 25 years and "survived" through 7 major rounds of lay-offs. It was a dark period and it was painful to see so many very talented colleagues go. But that's what was required to adapt to changing times. As much as I hate to admit it, my Company has become much stronger because of it. That's what Nikon is doing right now.

I can't speak to that. I am not privy to any information on Nikon's internal business.

#2 More a law of not paying attention to the competitors.

Really? You believe that Nikon is not watching its competitors? The leaked Z9 feature set has "let's meet or beat the R5 and A9II" written all over it.

I've heard it all before. And know how that went.

From DPR's initial Z7 review, under What's New and how it Compares. "The Z7 isn't just a D850 without a mirror"

https://www.dpreview.com/reviews/nikon-z7

Let's just say the Z9 is at or better than the D6 AF wise. Very well could be.

But most people don't buy a D6 (or a Z9, Alpha, etc) So now you have to wait for the Z9 tech to filter down to a lessor body. How far is that out - 1-2 years?? Sony and Canon will be that much further ahead again.

Let's put things into perspective. They are further ahead today w.r.t. AF-C. The Z cameras are otherwise holding their own, considering that a Z7 II is substantially cheaper than an R5, for instance.

I fully understand that. However, Nikon needs to realize they're not in a situation where they can hold anything back for the next rendition. Those days are over for them, at least for awhile. The Z9 is not the camera most Nikon enthusiasts or even pros are waiting for. They're waiting for what is hoped to be in the Z9 to trickle down. Nikon needed another body ready to go now, at a much lower price point. Someone else had mentioned a D700 to the D3 type of thingy. Something in the $3000 to $4000 range.

So in one year the Z6III and Z7III will be introduced and fill the gap, They will also be improved in other ways which we can only speculate.

How many renditions does it take to make a decent body. The go-to phrase on the Z7/ Z7II is that it is good for landscapes, political or marketing speak for it's not good for much anything else.

Will they be in the passing lane? Could be. Nikon has done it before.

They have to come from about 13% market share. Tough one.

And the Z lens are just as good as Canon's and Sony's.

Almost an apologetic statement now. Once the S lenses were declared the Holy Grail. Now it's "as good as Canon's and Sony's" Nikon can't afford to have too much "walked back"

I said from the beginning that the Zee AF was not there without ever touching one. I got shredded for that. But in Oct 2021 I am not alone in my opinion. I have been proven right. Even Lance is on board.

And you've got this that Primeshooter just posted. He's been nailing it on his posts lately. (Not that he wasn't before)

A recent comment from Ryan Cooper at f stoppers -

That's just one or two (counting Lance) person's opinions. I can point to many members of this forum who would say the opposite, That does not prove anything one way or the other.

I like Nikon. I think Nikon Z is a very solid system and can produce world-class images. I just can't justify investing in it. I'm not the only one."

We've read the very same concerns when Nikon's flagship camera was the 4MP D2h / D2hs, or the days before the D3 was introduced. Nikon did not look like it could catch up let alone surpass Canon in MP and high ISO IQ. And we know how that turned out. Past history shows that Nikon knows how to turn things around.

Things have changed drastically since the times of the D2h. The whole world is different.

We shall see. Right now both you and I have our own different views on what the future hold. Let's have this discussion in one year and see who is closer to reality.

Sure.

For Nikon's sake, you had better be more right than me. Though you're at a disadvantage as I've been right so far.

The one thing, maybe the only thing that will save Nikon at this point is a D3 / D700 situation. Z9 / Z8 ready to go next year with all the trimmings. Without this, I don't see a way out if they take another two - three years to release a body in the mid range between the Z9 and Z7 to cater to the D850 market. And that means not omitting anything, features, buttons etc like they did on the Z7 first and second gen. Only one function button at lens mount, low 60FPS refresh rate etc etc. It needs to have all the trimmings, and the AF needs to at least match an R5 or we're done.

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