Fuji prepping an X exit strategy?

Started 5 months ago | Discussions thread
Robert Seso Junior Member • Posts: 47
Re: Fuji prepping an X exit strategy?

Threaded wrote:

Robert Seso wrote:

The entire APS-C market will implode over the next three to five years and most vendors will likely abandon it one by one. I’d be surprised if in 2025 there’s anyone left developing new APS-C gear, and already today, Fuji seems to be the last one still investing into high end APS-C cameras and lenses, others have already either fully shifted their focus to full frame or offer only entry to to mid level APS-C equipment. And if the rumors about the upcoming Canon $799 full frame camera are even nearly true (https://www.canonrumors.com/canon-aiming-for-a-799-full-frame-camera-cr2/), that might be the last nail in the APS-C’s coffin.

For someone just starting out building a system, there is no point to go with APS-C any more and without a steady flow of new customers, the whole APS-C market will simply disappear over time.

As for Fuji - all their premium cameras and lenses are neither much cheaper, nor much lighter or smaller than the equivalent FF counterparts, so there goes one more advantage of APS-C (the Sony A7III with the 24-70 F4 is cheaper and weighs the same as X-T4 with 16-55 2.8). The cheaper models are smaller and lighter, but likely don’t generate enough money to justify further investment.

So basically the same thing that’s happening to Olympus and the MFT today, will happen to Fuji and the APS-C a few years down the road. No one knows how exactly how this will go, but the fact that Fuji recently opened their lens interface to 3rd parties like Tamron, Viltrox/Tokina and likely Sigma might be the signal that they will no longer invest much in new 1st party lenses and the first step of this exit strategy.

Whether they will completely abandon their photo business is open though, the GFX will likely always stay a niche with very limited growth potential, so it might just die a silent death alongside the APS-C, we’ll see.

It always amuses me when people pontificate about the “APS-C market” as if its one big homogenous thing that will succeed or fail as a single entity. This is nonsense of course; it’s not MFT, there is no shared lens mount or system, and no promotion of the format itself, only individual systems by individual manufacturers.

The truth is that APS-C has belonged to Fuji and the X system for some years now. The only other system actually dedicated to APS-C is Canon’s EOS M, and there’s clearly no competition there. Canon, Nikon and Sony have *always* pushed their full frame cameras at the expense of everything else and used APS-C only as a half-hearted entry point to those FF systems and that continues to be the case; the more they double down on full frame, the more Fuji’s niche producing smaller, lighter, premium cameras and lenses seems more assured.

Except for the fact that Fuji’s premium cameras and lenses must compete with the entry level FF equivalents and as such are neither much smaller, nor much lighter and also not much cheaper. The cheaper models are, but those don’t offer much more than a decent mobile phone does these days. Both the FF technology and the photography on mobile phones keep evolving fast, both in terms of quality and in terms of value for money, taking the market share from the APS-C and the MFT which have stalled a few years ago in big steps.

So no, unless a miracle happens, there’s nothing less assured than the future of Fuji’s consumer photo business, especially since the new management doesn’t seem to be as keen on keeping it around as a more or less profitless hobby like the old management did.

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