Canon rumored R7. I'm calling it...

Started 6 months ago | Discussions thread
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Re: Canon rumored R7. I'm calling it...
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sportyaccordy wrote:

MikeJ9116 wrote:

Why are APS-C DSLR users any less likely to buy into the R system than FF DSLR users?

The same reason APS-C DSLR users are less likely to buy any camera in 2021. Many of them have moved onto smartphones. Another sizable portion are limited by budget. Some are still using their APS-C systems and genuinely happy with them.

Main reason us APS-C users are not buying in 2021 is because there is currently not a compelling model in the Canon range. I have FF and C cameras, and mainly use the crop bodies. Pixels on subject are what counts. You are making a huge assumption that APS-C users move to smart phones. It really is not the case other than in the lower end. Many crop users spend a huge amount of money on photography.

Plus you have yet to answer exactly what these users would get with this mythological APS-C RF body. Sure, the birders would benefit from an R7. But remember how there weren't enough of them to prompt Canon to make a 7D3? That's a niche piece of the APS-C pie.

Pixels on subject, that is what so many of us require. As I said, canon only current have three R cameras on sale, the original R seems to have vanished from many shops as it had become a bit irrelevant given the R5/6. The range is in its very early stages and quite rightly Canon are concentrating on models that will keep the pro togs happy, and ones that look great on a spec sheet. It is good marketing. In a few years Canon have introduced a great lens lineup for RF and it is rapidly growing.

Why was there no 7D3? Only Canon really know but I would guess timing. The 7D2 was according to my local dealer still selling well as it really is a fantastic camera. So there was little rush in updating. When it was time for an update the move to RF was already heavily under way. So given the EF mount was nearing its end a 7D3 becomes a bit of a burden.

Also, there are far more APS-C DSLR owners than FF DSLR owners. Why would APS-C die off with DSLRs? None of this makes any logical sense.

Nobody said anything about APS-C dying off. But if you actually look at available evidence, rather than speculate on hopes and dreams, there's plenty of evidence justifying Canon taking its foot off the gas on APS-C.

  • EF-S has been around for 20 years and even predated digital FF, yet even with likely 100M Canon EF-S bodies sold customers never signaled enough demand or interest for more crop development.

Well they did. Up until 3 years ago S lenses were still being released. Many crop users use EF lenses, such as the amazing 100-400II, or the 100L Macro.

  • Canon themselves have said numerous times the majority of their lost sales were from APS-C.

APS-C was used in a huge range. The sensor size was not the issue. Looking at sales figures it was the bottom end, a once high volume product line, that sales plummeted. Those is both in low end rebels, and especially compact cameras. The latter was hugely hit. Many of which used APS-C sensors.

  • Industry wide, the shift in balance between FF or bigger and APS-C or smaller has changed dramatically. In 2012- the top selling year for ILCs- there were about 127 million FF lenses made vs 179 APS-C or smaller. So about a 5:7 ratio FF to non FF. In 2020 there were 118M FF or bigger lenses made vs 54M APS-C or smaller. So about a 2:1 ratio, with a pretty small drop in FF lens sales vs the 2012 ILC peak.

That is lenses. As previously stated, many crop users buy FF lenses. I see many 7D2 users with 600mm F4 lenses out in the field. Same goes for D500 users, many have a 500PF, a 500F4 or a 600F4 attached. You can get stats for this from various image sharing sites such as Flickr and the numbers

Obviously lenses are not 1:1 with bodies or users as FF lenses can be used on APS-C bodies. But the point remains that over the last 9 years FF (or bigger) lens production has only dropped off by about 7% while APS-C or smaller has dropped by 70%. I'm sure this is where the conspiracy of intentional hamstringing of smaller formats comes up but I'm going to ignore that. I would not be surprised if FF+ fully rebounds and APS-C continues to decline as supply chains get back to normal.

So in the context of that production data (and by proxy sales data- manufacturers don't make things they don't think they can sell) it seems pretty obvious where to invest. Which format do you invest in- the one that has fallen by 7% or 70%?

Source for your statistics? Ones I have seen are very different.

You can play with statistics all you want. Buy why would Nikon, Fuji and Sony still be producing new APS-C high end models? It is because the bodies are there to sell the lenses. The lenses are where most profit comes from,  it without the bodies the lenses and accessories cannot be sold.

Really, people are clamouring for a high end RF crop camera. They will sell, I myself would almost certainly own at least two and probably go through more as I wreck them. High end crop bodies have traditionally had a long shelf life meaning less development for a long sales life. This can be seen in Nikon, Canon and Fuji ranges.

Only Canon know the future of their ranges. It is visible that with only 8 lenses available that the M system is lacking and currently not the flavour of the day. There are more RF lenses arriving this year alone than the whole life so far of M. That leaves Canon users with only the RF system, and many want pixels on subject. If you thing wildlife togs are a small market you are mistaken. There are more than enough of them for many companies around the world to be making accessories, third party lenses, YouTube videos, clothing and a lot more. It is a huge market which has grown a lot this year during the pandemic.

It is not just bird and mammal togs, macro addicts also like crop cameras for a number of reasons. Same with shooters of sports such as windsurfing, kites etc. Sports where getting close is not easy so having more pixels on subject is advantageous. I know plenty of professional photographers who have a crop camera in their quiver for that very reason. And when they can just put it on their FF lenses it is a no brainier to own one.

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