Canon rumored R7. I'm calling it...

Started 6 months ago | Discussions thread
sportyaccordy Forum Pro • Posts: 18,862
Re: Canon rumored R7. I'm calling it...

MikeJ9116 wrote:

Why are APS-C DSLR users any less likely to buy into the R system than FF DSLR users?

The same reason APS-C DSLR users are less likely to buy any camera in 2021. Many of them have moved onto smartphones. Another sizable portion are limited by budget. Some are still using their APS-C systems and genuinely happy with them. You either don't understand or aren't willing to admit a sizable # of APS-C shooters are not enthusiasts and by proxy aren't buying anything besides a basic kit. Those people might have an APS-C camera and may even still use them but are not at all interested in buying more gear, which is Canon's primary concern.

Plus you have yet to answer exactly what these users would get with this mythological APS-C RF body. Sure, the birders would benefit from an R7. But remember how there weren't enough of them to prompt Canon to make a 7D3? That's a niche piece of the APS-C pie. Canon definitely isn't going to develop a full lineup of APS-C RF glass, and they already have EF-M. What is the point of an RF Rebel?

Also, there are far more APS-C DSLR owners than FF DSLR owners. Why would APS-C die off with DSLRs? None of this makes any logical sense.

Nobody said anything about APS-C dying off. But if you actually look at available evidence, rather than speculate on hopes and dreams, there's plenty of evidence justifying Canon taking its foot off the gas on APS-C.

  • EF-S has been around for 20 years and even predated digital FF, yet even with likely 100M Canon EF-S bodies sold customers never signaled enough demand or interest for more crop development. It's the same story with Nikon, and there is actually production data for Nikon that proves it.
  • Canon themselves have said numerous times the majority of their lost ILC sales were from APS-C.
  • Industry wide, the shift in balance between FF or bigger and APS-C or smaller has changed dramatically. In 2012- the top selling year for ILCs- there were about 127 million FF lenses made vs 179 APS-C or smaller. So about a 5:7 ratio FF to non FF. In 2020 there were 118M FF or bigger lenses made vs 54M APS-C or smaller. So about a 2:1 ratio, with a pretty small drop in FF lens sales vs the 2012 ILC peak.

Obviously lenses are not 1:1 with bodies or users as FF lenses can be used on APS-C bodies. But the point remains that over the last 9 years FF (or bigger) lens production has only dropped off by about 7% while APS-C or smaller has dropped by 70%. I'm sure this is where the conspiracy of intentional hamstringing of smaller formats comes up but I'm going to ignore that. I would not be surprised if FF+ fully rebounds and APS-C continues to decline as supply chains get back to normal.

So in the context of that production data (and by proxy sales data- manufacturers don't make things they don't think they can sell) it seems pretty obvious where Canon should invest. Which format do you invest in- the one that has fallen by 7% or 70%?

And as a user, if you're willing to move to an entirely new system anyway, what's so awful about going FF, if you don't have a special need like wildlife reach?

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