COVID-19 Discussion Thread #4

Started 6 days ago | Discussions thread
Martin.au
Martin.au Forum Pro • Posts: 13,851
Re: COVID-19 Discussion Thread #4

I made a mistake here.

Smaug01 wrote:

Martin.au wrote:

Guy Parsons wrote:

Clayton1985 wrote:

Let's assume Coronavirus reaches 60.8 million cases... what is the death rate for Coronavirus then as compared to H1N1 with 12,469 deaths? Answer that first and then I'll answer your questions.

Just checked the Johns Hopkins page and from the current world totals I see total world confirmed cases 378,601 for 16,505 deaths. I leave it to you to work out the percentage.

There's no easy way to work out the percentage without a known infected population.
However, of those who have been infected (378601), 117487 have known results.

Of those 117487, 100982 have had the infection and recovered, while 16505 have died.

Which suggests that around 14% of people who are diagnosed die, while 86% survive.

The main question is "how many are undiagnosed". That figure would change the percentages significantly.

Current death rate is 4.3% overall. It doesn't count people who are still sick. 14% sounds pretty high.

4-14% is a good estimate at this time.

Unfortunately the 4.3% rate is also meaningless, because of the total known to be infected, for 261114 we don't know where they are in the infection stage, and what the final outcome will be.

In short, we don't have sufficient data to determine how deadly this thing is. What we should do is look to the literature to see what studies have been done, particularly in places where heavy testing has been done.

My error is assuming that everyone who tests positive, is later tested to determine that they are negative and have recovered. This is not likely to be correct. This would drive the mortality rate down a lot, probably closer to the -4 rate.

I think we don’t have sufficient information and should look at the literature.

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