The trend continues

Started 1 week ago | Discussions thread
Droster Contributing Member • Posts: 584
Re: The trend continues

yray wrote:

scokill wrote:

fPrime wrote:

Mister Anders0n wrote:

https://nikonrumors.com/2020/02/07/nikon-q3-financial-results-are-out-revenue-and-profit-substantially-decreased-forecast-remains-unchanged.aspx/

As long as Nikon refuse to build compelling products for its users to upgrade to, I don’t see this trend changing. The D780 improved too little over the D750 and now it appears that the D6 improves too little over the D5.

I sincerely hope that Nikon fix the problems they currently have with the Z cameras in the next product generation because otherwise there really is nowhere for their current DSLR user base to go. Both their mirrorless and updated DSLR’s offerings are just not improved enough over existing cameras to warrant buying into IMHO.

fPrime

The problem isn't existing users upgrading, it's users period. Making a great product then expecting upgrades isn't a good strategy. The market has to grow. PCs have just recently showed growth YOY for the first time since 2011. It's just the new normal.

Do we upgrade our washers and dryers every time new model comes out? What about refrigerators and vacuum cleaners? Somehow appliance companies are still in business.

No. But that new families are always being formed and they'll need to some of those new roomba cleaners.

You just adjust your capacity to a sustainable level and make the best products you can.

People still want or need a lot of things which are not necessarily a growth market.

By the way I'm surprised that PCs showed signs of growth. It is another area where most people upgrade when their existing computer is near death, and most businesses are on a fixed upgrade cycle.

I think this whole so called transition to mirrorless is not a revolution some assume it is, the opinions on OVF vs EVF are very much split and aren't necessarily balanced by other mirrorless goodies, which is why Nikon should have thought twice about inconveniencing, let alone abandoning, its existing base. Much of this base may not buy a lot anymore, but when they do, they would surely buy another Nikon primarily because of the existing lenses. For instance, if Z had the F-mount I might have considered buying a Z when I wanted a smaller body for travel, or IBIS to stabilize my legacy lenses. Other than smaller size and IBIS, there is nothing at all in ML I would consider to be an advantage over DSLR. I don't care how good Z's AF is, I wouldn't consider EVF for anything that could be very loosely qualified as action shooting anyway.

Those who come to serious photography out of nowhere are few and far between these days. And by serious photography I should probably mean anyone not quite satisfied by their phone pics, and willing to put up with the learning curve and the inconvenience of dealing with another piece of equipment.

That's exactly why entry-level "crippled" cameras exists. Not everyone is start by jumping in to the deep end of the pool first. Those cameras exists to smooth out the learning curve. Even if you think these folks are far and few between, unlike a greying population, the camera buying population pyramid will always be a pyramid. As the base narrows, the levels above it narrows along with the base simply because not everyone moves up. The population pyramid is also why the camera companies know they have to focus on building that base. Less people coming in at the base means even lesser people moving up.

People who buy APS-C gear may not move into full frame. People who buy f1.8 primes may not buy f1.4 or f1.2 primes. People who buy a7iii may not upgrade to an a9. People who buy the 200-500 may not buy telephoto primes. You get my point.

That also proves there is a demand for gear of different layers and needs. And that also supports my point that it's much easier to convince people to spend less on entry level gear that fits their needs and budgets than to convince people to upgrade into much more expensive gear. it's going to take much longer to make and save enough to justify high end gear. Budget is still the defining factor. In a world where money is not a concern, I would love to grab myself a 400mm f2.8 to do field sports and the 120-300mm f2.8 to do court stuff. Most of us don't live in that world.

Without Nikon legacy these folks have a lot of choices, all just about equally compelling on the surface, except for the brand name. To assume that if Z were just a little better new customers would rush to buy Z is probably slightly naive, because as new customers they are not likely to care about the minutiae some old hands on this forum are preoccupied with.

 Droster's gear list:Droster's gear list
Nikon D810 Nikon D500 Nikon Z6 Nikon AF-S Nikkor 28mm f/1.8G Nikon AF-S Nikkor 70-200mm F4G ED VR +6 more
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