for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower Locked

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Jeff Veteran Member • Posts: 5,706
Re: for all FF BS, fuji told the real story, 1/3 market by value, by unit much lower

bobn2 wrote:

Jeff wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

Jefftan wrote:

TI: Yes, yes. I think the customers should have different options. We don't believe that all of the customers will go to full-frame. At the moment, I think the proportion of full-frame is probably one-third of the market by value.

DE: Oh, by value actually. So in terms of unit sales, it would be much lower.

TI: Yes, so two-thirds of the market is non-full frame, which is predominantly APS-C, Micro Four Thirds, and some medium-format as well.

TI: We really just cannot believe that projection of Canon's.

DE: Yeah. What are your projections, what do you think the market will do overall?

TI: I think it all depends on what innovation and what influence comes from the manufacturers. It's our mission to make the market viable. So I think our projection is there's a lot of room even to grow further in the camera market.

DE: It might even grow? (!)

TI: Yeah, yeah, yeah. If we look at the Asian market, there's a huge population over there. Some countries may decline, but some countries soon will change to growth. I think overall, the global camera market, you know...

DE: actually going to grow as well. Wow, that's interesting. Yeah, certainly I hear from everyone that China is a huge market, and it's got to be pretty low penetration for cameras there still, so there's a lot of opportunity there.

TI: Yes.

I'm not sure what this thread has to do with micro Four Thirds, or why it's on this forum, but here goes anyway.

The specialist photographic market is on the cusp of a major change. The market is declining. The compact cameras which formed the huge majority a few years ago have been wiped out. In another few years the market will look very different from what it does now. The bet that most camera manufacturers seem to be making is that there will still be profits in the market, but with higher value, lower volume products. So, that is where the action is. The question is, not what will dominate in today's market, but what will in this new market. Simplistically, it is the lower end that get wiped out first. It's probably unlikely that the size of that 30% will change much, but in a few years it could be closer to 70-90%. Which is also not to say that there is not still potential life in the remaining 30-10%.

In that context, you can understand the game Panasonic is playing.

I think you've stated this perfectly, and agree about Panasonic's strategy. But to take it a step further, I don't see how Panasonic can be successful by competing heads up with Sony, Canon, and Nikon for the FF market. Bigger and more expensive is not the usual way to gain entry against entrenched competition.

I don't think Panasonic sees itself as competing for the FF market, I think it sees itself as competing in the FF market. I think it has some skills and strengths as a very diversified electrical and electronic company, even more so than Sony. That is, the cameras are one product line amongst many. They don't have to support the company on their own, they just have to make a profit - and I think there's every chance of that, since they can piggy-back on their overall business in terms of production, distribution, marketing and support.

Simply, Panasonic doesn't have to be dominant or even one of the bigger players to be able to make a turn on the camera business. It isn't a status statement for their company, simply one more product line, one that looks very strong and complementary with respect, for instance, to their broadcast camera products.

So two questions ...

1. Will that market ... high-end FF cameras in the E, F, L, R, Z mounts ... get substantially larger, small, or stay about the same for the next 5-10 years?  (I'm thinking about the same).

2. Will Panasonic's marketshare come at the expense of current incumbants? (I'm thinking thinking Nikon is the most vulnerable for the business reasons you state in your case for Panasonic.)

 Jeff's gear list:Jeff's gear list
Olympus 45mm F1.2 Pro Olympus PEN E-P5 Olympus E-M1 Olympus OM-D E-M1X Olympus Zuiko Digital ED 150mm 1:2.0 +9 more
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