my new years predictions

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foot Veteran Member • Posts: 3,638
my new years predictions

ok here's my predictions, although it may take 5-10 years to happen..

1) Everything possible will switch over to mobile.  Think of how huge the mobile market is -- billions+ units either sold or will be sold.

2) Game consoles will disappear.  It's just not a big enough base to support all the engineering/marketing costs.  And AAA games are already skipping consoles and going mobile only

3) Windows will disappear.  We see Microsoft giving up on proprietary OS.  Microsoft's browser Edge is going away.  In the old days Microsoft would fight tooth-and-nail to dominate the API platforms.  They did this with Netscape, and then with Java.  Now even dot net is being ported/supported on other platforms.  Microsoft has bought github and is committed to Linux and IOT.

I'm also expecting to see "in app" monitization of Microsoft programs like Office.  If people will pay $3+ daily for coffee, spend $$$ to personalize their cubicles, why not a dollar here, a dollar there for personalized SFX (sound effects) and GFX (graphic effects).  Imagine a personalized "ring-tone" SFX for the enter key, or a tab key.  Or some special GIF when opening a file, or accessing a menu.  Apparently in game purchases are a huge business so why not do same for other programs?  Potentially more valuable than advertising

4) all the popular image/video editing software will move over to web based platforms.  This has been enabled by the new webasm capabilities in browsers.  I'm also thinking there will eventually be hardware acceleration for webasm programs, just like there was for graphics.

5) Apple as a company will be forced to change/evolve from the company it is today.  The latest iPhone problems show that Apple management aren't in tune with market realities.  I don't know what this will look like.  Apple gets a lot of power from it's large iPhone customer base. Which has lead to management arrogance, imho.  Witness the huge prices of the iPhones,  Witness Tim Cook declaring himself as the moral police, saying who's a sinner and what sinful behavior is.  Would you build a business using Apple services when they can kick you off, shut you down, for "sinful" behavior? Businesses don't like uncertainty.  And will APple continue to dominate the smartphone market? Time will tell

6) 5G will happen whatever peoples opinions are.  There is just too much institutional inertia.  The game has been rigged, the FCC rules were designed to "fast track" 5G across the nation.  Local governments don't have much choice.  Satellites are already approved and planned for launch.  I won't rehash my opinions and reasoning on this, I've already posted that I think 5G is premature technology, has potentially huge health issues (covering the entire world with new type of radiation? what couldn't go wrong...), will be obsolete quickly (like all hardware), and is hugely expensive (in the trillions).  Also I think the additional energy usage will work against climate change, imho.

7) Late breaking news....Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is getting a divorce.  What effect on amazon will that have?  It depends on how the divorce goes.  Sometimes when splitting up assets the only way to agree on the value is to sell it and split the profits. Ouch! Amazon is so big it would have to be split up somehow and sold piece meal.  Was there a pre-nup? If so, how would it stand up in court? Entirely unknown (at least to me).  Apparently they have been separated for awhile, Jeff has been muscling up physically (working out), so maybe there is a plan already in place.

All this is widely speculative, not any kind of financial or investment advice. I'm not invested in Apple.

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