What will Canon's next EF lens be?

ed rader wrote:

RF mount and a the successor to IDX II will be mirrorless.

Possible, but I doubt it very much unless Canon is sitting on tech that's a whole generation, and possibly two, ahead of the current state of the art and will have it ready for market by 2020.  I do expect to see a pro-level RF mount aimed at the Olympics as well though, so perhaps a better way of thinking of it would be that there will actually be *two* successors to the 1DX; one EF mount DSLR and one RF mount mirrorless.

I've spoken to far too many pro-users who push the limits for whom mirrorless is currently a non-starter.  I have personally killed one because it turns out that current screen tech is all but useless for prolonged use in extremely low temperatures.  Battery life is also a concern here since you *have* to use the screen or EVF to use the camera; no "spotting" with it in standby or off, which is a major issue for some arctic wildlife photographers.  Obviously 1DX level weather sealing and an LP-E4N style battery will address some of that, but when you're going to out of the way places in the high-arctic you really don't want to be down a camera by Day #3 as I was.

Likewise there is a small, but noticeable, lag with mirrorless.  For those that prefer to take a more decisive moment approach rather than spray and pray, that's also a deal breaker.  Despite what you might think given the FPS of the 1-series, a surprisingly large number of sports and and wildlife photographers (e.g. the people Canon actually tends to listen to) do just that, and that lag is a killer.  Again, issues that could be addressed with newer tech, but we're still talking people who hate change that might harm their business, kick up a fuss everytime Canon changes the UI and/or position of significant controls, and are going to need at least some convincing.

That's not to say I don't think RF is the future and EF will go the way of FD, but for those on the cutting edge environmentally and/or photographically it's still got a ways to go, and that's why I think we'll see at least one more 1-series DSLR.  I expect it to sell *very* well too, as people who are not entirely convinced buy additional backup bodies to stave of the inevitable.  On the plus side, those that can make the switch to RF should hopefully ensure a ready supply of used 1DX's for those that want them.

Andy