nnowak wrote:
The EOS M system ranges covers bodies from about $800 on down. Compared to current Canon DSLRs, this would be the T7i/800D on down. The EOS R currently sits at $2300 and I would assume will include more advanced and more expensive bodies in the future. The DSLR equivalents would be the 6d II, 5D IV and 1DX II. This leaves the lucrative market between $1000 and $2000 completely unrepresented. The current Canon DSLRs in this market are the 77D/9000D. 80D, and 7D II. Some key crops lenses for these users would be a 15-80mm f4 and a 15-50 f2.8 (approximately), but full frame glass like the 70-200mm f2.8 or 100-400mm f4-5.6 are also important. What will Canon's mirrorless answer be for the $1000 to $2000 market?
I see three potential routes Canon could take:
1. Seroulsy amp up the M system with much higher level bodies and dramatically expand the lens lineup with more advanced options. The needed lenses would break the 61mm limit on lens diameter and some of the bodies would need to get much bigger. Weather sealing would need to be added to some bodies and lenses and a weather sealed EF adapter would be needed too.
Canon has had six years to "amp up" the M system. I don't see them doing it now. Especially with a whole new R system coming out that is completely incompatible with the EF-M mount.
2. Build crop sensor bodies and lenses in RF mount. Full frame RF lenses could cover some focal lengths, but a few crop zooms covering 16-200mm equivalent would be absolutely necessary.
IMO, it is a lock that APS-C will come to the R system. The overriding reason is that Canon needs to be able to sell RF mount lenses to APS-C camera owners. Imagine how much revenue it would have lost had it decided to make the DSLR APS-C mount completely incompatible with the EF mount. Secondarily, Canon needs the path for all APS-C users to seamlessly move to FF R cameras. Since the M system can't do this, IMO, it spells its eventual replacement by APS-C with the RF mount.
3. Ignore this segment of the market. Canon could sell cheaper full frame R cameras in this price range, but features such as AF, burst rate, buffer, and physical controls would likely be well below the level expected by 80D and 7D II users.
Canon can't afford to ignore this segment because its competitors are not/will not do the same. The gap they ignore will turn into a cancer that eats up the high and low end segments from the middle..
This is not a debate about the health of the M system. It is only a question of what you think Canon will do to fill the current gap in their lineup. If you think there is another possible scenario, please suggest it below.