Logical Exercise: Sell NX, buy Fuji/Sony?

M43ForMe wrote:

I don't think any of the seriousness from Canon will come in the M series. I think they'll save that for their answer to the A7III with whatever pro level mirrorless they release.

The problem for them is that they can't price it at $3000 like you know they want to. Nobody is going to pay Canon prices in this new Sony world.

This is a comment I did on a different forum about the new Nikon, when I make the argument that Nikon is maybe too late in the game. Of course you are taking it out of context, as you do not follow the rest, but it has some points about this new Sony world, as you say.

"Sigma/Tamron/Samyang already offer AF lenses and they will produce more zooms this year. Sony E lenses are extremely expensive, and not any better than Canonikon ones, but now that other makers make cheap E lenses, the system is becoming more attractive. Even Fuji make pro video E lenses these days.

That huge Canonikon base, maybe won't buy another camera, ever. I know plenty of people buying a dSLR back in the golden age, using it a couple of times, and then put them in the closet for ever. Especially now that phones are good enough for them, and admittedly easier to carry and shoot, they are not going back to any dSLR or mirrorless.

It is pretty obvious that mirrorless is the future (and past and present for me, as I am using mirrorless for half a decade now), I do not see what benefit dSLRs will have in a couple of years from now. Migration to Sony will slow down, for sure, but it is already an industry standard, in many cases, there are just too many A7 cameras around, a lot of people have idolized the A7s series, the A7r series has an incredible megapixel count, and the A7 series is amazing for an entry level FULL FRAME mirrorless camera. Also, a6xxx cameras are the top sellers in every online shop for a few years now, and most of the young people starting in "business", are Sony users, and know only Sony as a "serious" camera manufacturer, so the trend is the opposite for them. A6000 has sold amazingly well in amateurs.

I am just saying that it is more complicated than "huge Canon/Nikon user base", that was the case a few years ago, but just recently that has changed, and I seriously doubt Nikon will make a camera like the A7iii (spec wise) and that will cost less than 3333euros (and Sony is 2300euros here). We will see of course, but Sony IS a player, plus has access to a huge R&D department that makes also game consoles, mobile phones, most of the sensors in the market, so can get components easier than Nikon, cheaper, and have more info beforehand. Not that we have seen those in their cameras (touch screen implementation is a joke, their screens are mediocre - at least, overheating was a major issue for years, QC is questionable, Nikon/Fuji are getting better results from the same sensors, e.t.c), but still they have some advantages.

As of the Nikon full frame mirrorless system,

I believe Nikon will have an active adapter offered for cheap/free. Continuity is a huge thing for them, more than anyone else, and they will deliver. I am 97% certain of this. They have produced a few patents the last couple of years of interesting stuff, and definitely they need a different, more modern mount, but with backwards compatibility. They will find a great solution I believe, and maybe that is the reason of the late arrival of that camera, but as I said earlier, maybe that will be later that it should!

Also, they can go all in in video mode, they are a bit behind everyone right now (except Olympus, and Pentax, are we still consider Pentax a player?!), but they have no cine camera line to protect, and already they have delivered excellent image quality in some models. An amazing Nikon mirrorless with one of the best SOC video, will worth the, around, 3.000euros that Nikon will ask for their full frame mirrorless. Fuji asks 2300euros for a machine that most people will consider vastly inferior to a great Nikon full frame mirrorless. If the video is so so, then Sony will be a better option for true hybrid shooters in full frame, and the rest will happily stay with m43/Fuji, or move to newer, greater, EOS M cameras.

Video is the battle field right now, every one is talking about AF and Video performance as top selling points. Maybe 10bit will be a mandatory spec in a couple of years, the photo quality is quite good already, but video can be improved a lot."