Why and Why Not of the A7iii for ME Locked

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007peter Forum Pro • Posts: 11,933
@Alexis regarding Sony placing a M43/Fuji CAP, but also HARM its own A6700

Alexis D wrote:

Sony has simply put a stop on higher price APSC and M43 prices, pushing them back and this is good for consumers but spells big trouble for M43 and Fuji.

Agree that $2000 Sony A7-III has effectively placed a CAP on higher price APSC and M43 camera. From today forward, any near $2000 camera must be able to compete Sony A7-III toe-to-toe on every FRONT (FF Bokeh, FF dynamic range, and FF lowlight) or lower the price. Which is what I suspect will happen in the next 6 months, which is why I recommend waiting. While I may not want a Gh5 @$1700 price tag, I can see a $500 price drop to $1200 would stimulate a huge sale toward M43. Competition is wonderful (finger cross)

Also keep in mind that Sony A7-III is harming its own APS-C camera as well:

  • $2000 Sony A7-III (FF) camera is making
  • $1500 Sony A6500 (APS-C) look overprice
  • $969 Sony A7-II (FF) camera is putting pressure on
  • $1000 Sony A6300 (APS-C) look overprice

Going forward, It'll be even more of a challenge to justify premium for both APS-C and M43 alike. It's easy to see the future with Sony A7-4, A7-5, A7-6, A7-7 release, the earlier sony A7 can be have for quite a bargain. While I don't care to jump in bed with a Sony FF yet, I must admit that Adorama's $969 Sony A7 (II) FF is looking very tempting indeed..

Life is too short to wait, A good response is nice but cameras take years to make.

I suppose this response depends on our AGE. If you're 70's old, by all means, knock yourself out with Sony A7-III. But keep in mind that Camera Manufacture (already have upcoming camera in their pipeline), they're not made from scratch this year, and Sony A7-III may have already affect their overall feature, packing, and pricing adjustments. I suspect we'll see are far more Pricing Competitive M43 going forward. That is what I'm looking forward to. All is not doom.

Besides, if Olympus and Panasonic (and Fuji) can no longer sell their top cameras at $2000, a reasonable assumption, what hope is there of some really nice sensors, features or performance, say, in a $1799 E-M1 III?

Good question I have no answer for. I have always preach that M43 → will need to go FF @some point, but those thread are usually shut-down by M43 loyalist. I think Sony A7-III merely show the vulnerability of charging $2500/$1700 for a camera with a quarter size sensor. I suspect M43 will move FF but keep its 4:3 ratio.

And is it reasonable to assume that resale price of E-M1 II will tumble, and probably also for those f/1.2 lenses, 12-100mm f/4, 40-150mm f/2.8, 7-14mm f/2.8, 300mm f/4, ... ? So, it is probably not unreasonable to sell at this time, while prices are holding,

Bad news for current owner of EM-1 II and lovely expensive lens, but

Great New for Value-Huting M43 user like me pining for Oly 12-100 and Panny 100-400. Price drop is good news for me.

Not sure about Canon being able to release an "A7 III killer" in its first generation, or even second generation cameras (given the first generation cycles of Sony cameras).

But you forget Canon isn't starting from scratch. Most of its AF system has already been perfected with EOS-M. While early EOS-M were dog slow (I had one before I switch to M43). EOS-M today with Dual-CMOS AF focus track better than Gh4/Gh5 in continuous video. Its line of STM lens is rather cheap, and appeal to many consumers. Keep in mind that Canon also won best selling BCN DSLR and Mirrorless in 2018. It already has all the technology to make a great mirror less, Canon is just holding back its trump cards like its always does. Its very frustrating as Canon users waiting for Canon to get aggressive. Canon Dominate 2018 BCN dslr + MIRRORLESS

Sensor technology aside, how many native lenses can it release each year?

1~4 maximum. I suspect Canon will release 3 FF mirrorless lens: 2 zooms and a prime

What seems more likely is that Canon will make some really cheap FF, maybe a $1699 mirrorless, to try to compete with Sony.

Agree on $1700 price tag. It seem the most reasonable estimate. Pricing lower than Sony A7-III because there is no way for a brand new Canon FF mirrorless to compete Toe-to-Toe yet.

They will be able to price their lenses cheaper too. That's what Canon did before with its entry level APSC DSLRs to compete with the better spec'ed M43 cameras, with really low prices. They probably will do the same and use pricing to compete with Sony at the FF mirrorless level, which can put even more pressure on M43 and Fuji.

Agree on lower price lens. Canon fantastic yet cheap 18-135mm STM, 40/2.8 STM, 24/2.8 STM, 55-250 STM, 10-18 STM sometime make me regret selling my canon gear for M43

Sony will release its A6700 later and most likely it will get the A9 AF as well, plus whatever technology that is ripe, again making it tougher for other mirroless makers.

Disagree. I question the entire wisdom of overprice APS-C A6700 @this point. With a $2000 Sony A7-3 and a $969 Sony A7-2, I just don't see how A6xxx lines will continues. Sony also is rumor to be interested in making a A6: cheap FF mirrorless without EVF. If so, that will place even more pricing pressure on A6xxx. Sony honestly doesn't seem all that interested in keeping its APS-C Emount alive. Its still in a semi-zombie states as far as I can tell. Sony is luck that Sigma 30/1.4 and Sigma 16/1.4 keep the platform interesting, but for existing Sony owners, I see FF as their eventual upgrade that will be forced upon them.

Panasonic will fare better than Olympus with its video superiority, but Sony may have a big surprise for us again in the A7s III's performance/value. Will it be a major improvement or can meet GH5S' price.

All Eyes is on Sony A7S-III @NAB+ show this year

And by next year, they may have the teething problems fixed in the A9 ......

next year?  I'm not even going to project that far ahead.  I think the next 3~6 months will be the most Anxious and Exciting times for Digital photography in a long time.  Can't wait.

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