Thom Hogan's pessimistic 2018 outlook

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havoc315 Veteran Member • Posts: 4,451
Thom Hogan's pessimistic 2018 outlook
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http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-expectations.html

I find Thom smart, objective and insightful.  But I don't always agree with his conclusions.   He is making a bit much out of Nikon only doing 3 cameras in 2017 -- Sony and Canon did far fewer cameras than past years as well.

I also don't think a D5s and D500s are "musts" for early 2018.   The market has changed a lot from just a few years ago.   There isn't the demand to iterate every 2 years, especially where the technology is no longer changing rapidly, at least for traditional dSLRs.

I do think he is correct that Nikon has fallen dangerously behind in mirrorless and it will take a technological homerun to get back into the game.   Not impossible, but a challenge.

Personally, I think the critical points for Nikon in 2018:

- A successful D750 upgrade.  This was a hugely successful camera for Nikon due to its perceived value at a price point that could attract enthusiasts and amateurs.   Now over 3 years old, it's time for ab upgrade.  Something for those who might admire the D850 but are hesitant to spend $3300 or hesitant for a 1kg camera body.

-A solid mirrorless foothold.  They have to launch something as good as the Canon M5, Sony A6500 and A7iii.... with either native F-mount, or a solid launch of new lenses.

I see both of those as being more important than a D5 and D500 minor iteration.

 havoc315's gear list:havoc315's gear list
Sony a6300 Sony Alpha a7R III Sony E 50mm F1.8 OSS Nikon AF-S Nikkor 18-35mm f/3.5-4.5G ED Sony FE 35mm F2.8 +10 more
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