Mirrorless ILC set to overtake DSLR unit sales

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wb2trf Senior Member • Posts: 2,852
Mirrorless ILC set to overtake DSLR unit sales
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Wow.

Looking at the linked CIPA data (http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201701_e.pdf)  the big news is that Mirrorless unit sales are zooming upward, 148% year over year. That's huge.

Meanwhile, DSLR unit shipments are plunging, plunging faster now than P&S (89% vs. 93% for P&S yr over yr). That's also a huge change. Previously they were declining but not so fast.

If this data holds for one more year, Mirrorless unit shipment will surpass DSLRs within the next year.  That's pretty amazing.

Furthermore, as of this date, the average unit price of Mirrorless is slightly higher than DSLRs. (However, DSLR sales seem to be dropping from the bottom of the market, which makes sense, so the average price of DSLRs has been rising as unit sales plummet.)

The ramifications of this sea change for the major makers is potentially very large. I have believed for some time that Canon has been in a disinvestment mode. Nikon substantially lacks the luxury of that option and seems to be just in some serious trouble. (Nikon has: Declining market, competing with higher cost-to-make products, sourcing the major component from a major competitor, all equal bad strategic position) Fuji and Sony would appear to be best positioned, but often the devil is in the details.

Given the 11% decline for DSLRs vs 48% growth for mirrorless, the fact that mirrorless may suddenly surpass DSLRs, the Nikon and Canon foot dragging on mirrorless camera models, (the incredible stupidity of the "Nikon 1") now looks like the gigantic error that it was foretold to be.  Sony has basically gotten it right, as have a few other mirrorless makers, and now they are benefiting at their expense.

I don't see how the industry structure stays the way it is in the face of these kinds of shifts.

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