Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

Started Aug 5, 2016 | Discussions thread
rrccad Forum Pro • Posts: 10,939
Re: Will Nikon or Canon offer full frame mirrorless cameras soon?

Philnw2 wrote:

rrccad wrote:

Philnw2 wrote:

Noone really knows what the future holds for us, not even the camera mfr.

I've been serious about photography for 9 years, been selling pics for 7 years, the last 2 years have been in co-op galleries. My background is Pentax DSLRs, and now i'm a 2 system camera owner with Sony A7rii, still have a K3 for bad weather conditions.

My best guess - and thats all any of us can do:

1. DSLR and MILC will reach parity in numbers by 2018, neither type will go away anytime soon.

how do you anticipate that? marketshares have been pretty static outside of asia.

Simple. I go to the Cipa for the latest month and year available, June 2016

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201606_e.pdf

and i look at worldwide shipments and look at the total sales value in yen in the fourth column which compares the six months of this year to the same period last year. (i don't look at the unit figures because that gets all fuzzed up with many considerations)

Right. Because value isn't even more fuzzed up.

Even if you project that out it would be over a decade before the two would be equal. Certainly not.. 2018.

So for the first 6 months of 2016, SLR sales value is 77.8 per cent of what it was in 2015.

It's not sales.

Mirrorless sales value is 100.2 percent of what it was last year. I realize that the earthquake is going to affect these numbers, but for the last 3 years that i've been following, DSLR sales value is consistently falling about 17 to 22% year on year. Mirrorless sales are often in plus territory, but this year at 100%. I don't fuzz it up or cherry pick the information by looking at individual countries. I keep expecting to see that DSLR sales will stop falling to the degree they have, but so far i haven't seen those kind of positive percent swings.

Value will swing based upon product portfolio and is a poor judge without context.

So why are there rumours out there that Canon and Nikon are going to introduce large sensor?

Because there are rumors?

Why did Hasselblad mfr a new mirrorless MF camera - the first of its kind to my knowledge.

Nope there has been range finder mf before.

Not to mention it's a limited system even for hasselblad.

The thing is, when you connect up the dots, DSLRs are on a downward trend, at the moment and mirrorless are on an upward trend, or at least stable for this year

Only as far as shipped value.. which really means sweet all.

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