Good players skate to where the puck is, great players skate to where the puck will be.
OKAY, so much for the Canadian market. Now what about elsewhere? LOL.

But yes, in camera terms, I would have thought mirrorless. That's where the future is.

The OP's praise for IBIS is merited -- within reason. Very effective with shorter lenses, but note that Olympus's new f4 300mm lens has OIS which works in conjunction with IBIS because with very long lenses, IBIS is less effective.

In marketing terms, Pentax has a lot of catch up to do because it was never quite at the top table in 35mm but operated in a very solid niche below that. That solid niche is now taken by APS-C and m43 (I think!). Nikon and Canon will continue to dominate the professional FF market because of lens inertia -- pro photography organizations have a collection of Canon and/or Nikon lenses going back to whenever and they won't readily swap systems. Thus, the perception that Canon and Nikon are "the best of the best" will continue whether they produce really good cameras in the future or 57 varieties of modified soup cans.

Pentax has a hard road to hoe but in respect of DSLRs, it looks as though they have thrown down the gauntlet with a bunch of features that is going to make prospective Nikon and Canon buyers sit up and take notice.

Now to promote them -- and that's where it gets tough. A long slog.

--
Geoffrey Heard
Down and out in Rabaul in the South Pacific
http://rabaulpng.com/we-are-all-traveling-throug/i-waited-51-years-for-tavur.html
 
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Some interesting views out there on this and I think in general people are more pessimistic than I am. Pentax were once the biggest selling camera brand and as recently as about 1982 were the first manufacturer to sell 10 million SLR units. The fact is they were slow into digital after the scrapping of what would have been the world's first full frame DSLR camera and that was their undoing.

As a result of that strategic mistake Nikon and Canon overtook them. I don't believe that any company achieves dominance forever - as an example, look at Kodak: Utterly dominant in film production, very early into digital and yet they lost their position and are nowhere now. Equally look at Nokia - completely dominant in the early years of mobile phones and yet through not embracing the smartphone early enough they were destroyed by Apple who had previously been destroyed by IBM.

Very few companies have ever achieved permanent market dominance historically and so I don't really see Canon and Nikon as so unassailable as so many of you do. The fact is that both Canon and Nikon have a very strong market position indeed in a weakening and threatened market, but so did Nokia, IBM etc.

Somebody earlier said the 645Z was a solution looking for a problem and I completely disagree. The 645Z was a very clever move by Pentax against the incredibly overpriced high margin medium format cameras offered by Hassy and Phase 1. The 645Z had gained a real position in the market because it offers the opportunity for high end pro's to shoot medium format film and video at 1/3 of the cost of the established competition. If I wanted to look credible and was tendering for the Audi advertising contract I would want to shoot medium format, not a 20 megapixel EOS 1!! The 'problem' if you want to phrase it like that was that Phase 1 and Hassy were charging £15k for a stills only camera and Pentax have blows that wide open by offering a fully weatherproofed stills and video camera for significantly less. If you're a pro selling into high end corporates and galleries that's a very compelling offer unmatched in the market. The interesting question is if you're one of those photographers and want a back-up body you're probably currently shooting a Canon or Nikon back-up. Why would you want to do that when you could buy a K1 and use the same lenses across both the 645Z and the K1? Why would you want to run two parallel and different systems with two sets of lenses and user interfaces??

Also lets take another scenario. You're a serious amateur or recently turned pro. You currently shoot Nikon or Canon APSC. When you go full frame you will have to ditch every lens you own. Lets say you want to shoot weddings and portraits or landscapes full frame so your options are:

Nikon D810 £1789, 24-70mm F2.8 £1657, Nikon 70-200mm F2.8 £1579

Pentax K1 £1599, 24-70 F2.8 £1148, Pentax 70-200mm F2.8 £1849

Canon EOS 5D mk3 £2199 (5DS £2499), Canon 24-70 F2.8 £1369. Canon 70-200 F2.8 £1449

TOTAL COSTS:

Nikon £5000

Pentax £4600

Canon £5000/£5300

Worth noting that the Pentax is new to market, the Canon and Nikon aren't so expect the differential to grow bigger quite quickly as Pentax launch prices fall.

In short the Pentax isn't so much cheaper in the full frame market as the 645Z was in medium format, however I can easily see how quite quickly the differential might be £1000 and that is significant if you're starting a business and turning pro, especially for a camera which offers a higher spec than the competition and a standard zoom which on Lenstip.com outperformed its Canon/Nikon equivalents.

Lets be frank: The pro market (currently) doesn't care about Mirrorless, so Sony and Fuji are making some great cameras but they aren't going to attract the high end pro's. If you want a pro level DSLR then Pentax is the only alternative game in town and their heritage (K1000 was often the first camera many photographers ever bought) and history with top line pro's still makes them a force to be reckoned with. Peter Hurley shot Pentax 6x7, David Bailey shot Pentax through much of the 1960's and 1970's. The name has a whole lot more resonance in photography than Sony, Fuji or even Minolta so while their current market share may be small I think they do punch above their weight simply because of their heritage - they pretty much invented the SLR after all.

If you want evidence of the impact they might have look at Nikon. The D810 was selling at around £2250 until March this year the month after Pentax announced the K1. Since the K1 was announced in late Feb they have slashed the D810 to under £1800. You may not perceive the K1 as a threat to the established players but Nikon do...

HIstory is littered with companies who have come in from the left-field and taken the market by storm. It isn't going to be easy for Pentax for sure, but I think they're in with a real chance of growing their market share from say 5% now to 15-20% within 5 years if they keep engineering such extremely competitive and well designed cameras. They have the benefit of Ricoh behind them (turnover about twice as much as Nikon and 2/3 that of Canon) so with the right marketing budget (and that's currently an issue) I could see them making some inroads.

May I say how much I appreciate you guys (whatever you shoot) engaging in a highly intelligent and reasoned debate on this. I actually think David Bailey is right when he said the gear doesn't matter at all. Laying my cards on the table I am sad to see a company with such an incredible heritage in photography having fallen on hard times in recent years (and that goes for Kodak, Contax, Minolta and Olympus to a degree to too) I wish to goodness Contax were where Fuji are, I wish Olympus still made full frame SLR's, I wish Kodak were still here!! All of these companies have something special to offer and it's a shame that the dominance of two major players tends to smother some pretty darned wonderful photographic firms...

Pentax strike me at present as the very plucky underdog, they're making some brilliant gear and if DSLR is your bag they're the only other game in town. I admire them for their balls in offering a third way. MOre competition in a market tends to stimulate everyone to deliver their best.

Birdseed
 
The examples you gave of companies like Nokia destroyed by Apple are cases where a new technology disrupted the entire marketplace. Pentax is in a situation where they are not offering disruptive technologies, they are hoping, at best, to differentiate their product based on lower price or incremental features at the same price.

In order for Pentax or any company to "destroy" the marketplace will involve a completely different take on photography that is universally agreed to be a huge improvement.

When Apple announced their capacitive touch screen in the iPhone, there were a lot of doubters who expected it to fail. "You mean I have to look at my phone in order to dial someone?". It turned out to be an extremely well engineered product and it disrupted the marketplace as a result.

Lytro is example of a potentially disruptive technology that didn't end up disrupting anything. Primarily because the IQ wasn't as good as was needed, the cameras were expensive and there wasn't a big consensus that it was a better approach than traditional photography.

So you have to ask yourself: "What is Pentax offering the market that is disruptive and that is significantly better/different than what other manufacturers are offering?"

At this point, without something revolutionary, it will be a long slog to win back market share based on price.
 
The 645Z is clearly an exceptional camera for professional landscape and fashion/advertising photographers. At around £5-6k it consummately outperforms the Nikon and Canon top line pro cameras for image quality and it matches the Hasselblad and Phase 1 medium format rivals at 1/2 to 1/4 the price.
It does?
 
Pentax need to do 2 things to become a serious player. Fix their AF tracking, and offer a better flash system.
 
The 645Z is clearly an exceptional camera for professional landscape and fashion/advertising photographers. At around £5-6k it consummately outperforms the Nikon and Canon top line pro cameras for image quality and it matches the Hasselblad and Phase 1 medium format rivals at 1/2 to 1/4 the price.
It does?
JACS,

You can't seriously be suggesting that the image quality off a 36 megapixel D810 or 20 megapixel EOS 5D/EOS 1 or even a 50 megapixel EOS 5 DS comes anywhere near a 645Z medium format sensor with 50 megapixels and 1.7x the sensor area? As Scotty would say "Ye canna change the laws of physics Captain". Anyway here's DXO's take on it:


By the way the EOS 5DS scored:

86 overall with 24.6 bits colour depth, 12.4 EV's dynamic range and 2308 for low light performance

645Z scores:

101 overall, 26 bits colour depth, 14.7 EV's dynamic range and 4505 for low light performance

The results for the 645Z were inadvertently leaked by DXO when comparing to the Sony A7R rather than officially released, probably in order to avoid embarrassing certain vested interests (Canon/Nikon) who like to portray themselves as building the best cameras in the world...
 
The 645Z is clearly an exceptional camera for professional landscape and fashion/advertising photographers. At around £5-6k it consummately outperforms the Nikon and Canon top line pro cameras for image quality and it matches the Hasselblad and Phase 1 medium format rivals at 1/2 to 1/4 the price.
It does?
JACS,

You can't seriously be suggesting that the image quality off a 36 megapixel D810 or 20 megapixel EOS 5D/EOS 1 or even a 50 megapixel EOS 5 DS comes anywhere near a 645Z medium format sensor with 50 megapixels and 1.7x the sensor area?
Actually, my point was that you cannot seriously suggest that the 50mp Pentaz 645Z with a 44x33 sensor can match the IQ180 with its 54x40 sensor and 90mp. :-)
As Scotty would say "Ye canna change the laws of physics Captain". Anyway here's DXO's take on it:

http://www.pentaxforums.com/articles/photo-industry-news/pentax-645z-ranked-highest-by-dxomark.html

By the way the EOS 5DS scored:

86 overall with 24.6 bits colour depth, 12.4 EV's dynamic range and 2308 for low light performance

645Z scores:

101 overall, 26 bits colour depth, 14.7 EV's dynamic range and 4505 for low light performance

The results for the 645Z were inadvertently leaked by DXO when comparing to the Sony A7R rather than officially released, probably in order to avoid embarrassing certain vested interests (Canon/Nikon) who like to portray themselves as building the best cameras in the world...
 
Not to be flippant, but as a Pentax user myself (off and on), the bottom line is that they need to get sales. How they get those sales may be difficult as other posters above have already discussed (which I won't add to). But I hope they succeed. I've always liked Pentax cameras and lenses.
 
JACS,

Of course not, the IQ180 80MP will outperform the 50mp Pentax 645Z (as it should for £30 000!!!) That's exactly why for £6000 the 645Z has taken the market by storm - even professionals at the top of their game have to evaluate the law of diminishing returns.

Birdseed
 
JACS,

Of course not, the IQ180 80MP will outperform the 50mp Pentax 645Z (as it should for £30 000!!!) That's exactly why for £6000 the 645Z has taken the market by storm - even professionals at the top of their game have to evaluate the law of diminishing returns.
But you said that the Pentax matched it...

Anyway, we are in agreement now.
 
Geoworker,

You raise a good point I think. The issue for Pentax is translating what is widely acknowledged to be now a very competitive (and in some cases technology/performance/vfm) market leading product range into sales.

You and I might have views about that - presence on the high street, professional endorsement, marketing budget etc but I was very keen to hear from others who don't necessarily use the brand on what they think needs to be done.

I'm actually sorry I got drawn into quoting DXO figures because from there it's all too easy to get into petty point scoring. The point I was fundamentally trying to make is that Pentax do have some very competitive cameras that are demonstrably up there with the best. How do they get from building great cameras to enjoying great sales?

Birdseed
 
I hope fellow photographers will take this in the spirit it's intended. I'm curious to learn just how appealing a move to Pentax is to you?

Birdseed
The move could be very appealing. I am planning to upgrade from my 16MP APS camera to D810, which is little outside my budget. So K-1 could be a great camera for me as I am sure Pentax could extract similar image quality as Nikon from the Sony sensor. Also, I have used the K5 body for few minutes and as you said, it is probably the only camera body I desired without any reason.



Now here comes the problem part. I am landscape photographer and I hike with my gear. So my kit would contain lightweight and good lenses. I plan to buy 3 lenses for the Nikon.



1. 24-85VR - It will be the walk around lens during hikes and for snapshots. So I don't need best image quality.
2. 18-35G. lightweight, cheap, similar image quality between 18-28 to much expensive 14-24/2.8, and most importantly take filters.
3. 70-200/4 VR - again apparently lightweight, best IQ among f/4 tele zooms, great for detailed landscape work. 70-200/2.8 is not an option. 600-700 gram etc weight for a stop of light that I don't need is strictly no no.



Now tell me what could be the alternatives to these lenses if I buy K-1. This is not a challenge, but a genuine question. I am not interested in primes.
 
How about a merger or collaboration between Ricoh/Pentax and Samsung? I'd be surprised if it didn't result in a range of cameras that could challenge anybody. How would the Samsung NX range have sold with a Pentax badge on the front? Pentax DSLRs and Samsung mirrorless cameras would make a very competitive, and appealing, line up.
 
Sadly two losers don't make a winner....if it did British Leyland would be the worlds top car manufacturer.....

The whole camera market is in steep decline and in the future there simply will not be room for as many manufacturers as there are now. A contraction of the supplier base and less brands is inevitable.
 
Some interesting views out there on this and I think in general people are more pessimistic than I am. Pentax were once the biggest selling camera brand and as recently as about 1982 were the first manufacturer to sell 10 million SLR units. The fact is they were slow into digital after the scrapping of what would have been the world's first full frame DSLR camera and that was their undoing.

As a result of that strategic mistake Nikon and Canon overtook them. I don't believe that any company achieves dominance forever - as an example, look at Kodak: Utterly dominant in film production, very early into digital and yet they lost their position and are nowhere now. Equally look at Nokia - completely dominant in the early years of mobile phones and yet through not embracing the smartphone early enough they were destroyed by Apple who had previously been destroyed by IBM.

Very few companies have ever achieved permanent market dominance historically and so I don't really see Canon and Nikon as so unassailable as so many of you do. The fact is that both Canon and Nikon have a very strong market position indeed in a weakening and threatened market, but so did Nokia, IBM etc.

Somebody earlier said the 645Z was a solution looking for a problem and I completely disagree. The 645Z was a very clever move by Pentax against the incredibly overpriced high margin medium format cameras offered by Hassy and Phase 1. The 645Z had gained a real position in the market because it offers the opportunity for high end pro's to shoot medium format film and video at 1/3 of the cost of the established competition. If I wanted to look credible and was tendering for the Audi advertising contract I would want to shoot medium format, not a 20 megapixel EOS 1!! The 'problem' if you want to phrase it like that was that Phase 1 and Hassy were charging £15k for a stills only camera and Pentax have blows that wide open by offering a fully weatherproofed stills and video camera for significantly less. If you're a pro selling into high end corporates and galleries that's a very compelling offer unmatched in the market. The interesting question is if you're one of those photographers and want a back-up body you're probably currently shooting a Canon or Nikon back-up. Why would you want to do that when you could buy a K1 and use the same lenses across both the 645Z and the K1? Why would you want to run two parallel and different systems with two sets of lenses and user interfaces??

Also lets take another scenario. You're a serious amateur or recently turned pro. You currently shoot Nikon or Canon APSC. When you go full frame you will have to ditch every lens you own. Lets say you want to shoot weddings and portraits or landscapes full frame so your options are:

Nikon D810 £1789, 24-70mm F2.8 £1657, Nikon 70-200mm F2.8 £1579

Pentax K1 £1599, 24-70 F2.8 £1148, Pentax 70-200mm F2.8 £1849

Canon EOS 5D mk3 £2199 (5DS £2499), Canon 24-70 F2.8 £1369. Canon 70-200 F2.8 £1449

TOTAL COSTS:

Nikon £5000

Pentax £4600

Canon £5000/£5300

Worth noting that the Pentax is new to market, the Canon and Nikon aren't so expect the differential to grow bigger quite quickly as Pentax launch prices fall.

In short the Pentax isn't so much cheaper in the full frame market as the 645Z was in medium format, however I can easily see how quite quickly the differential might be £1000 and that is significant if you're starting a business and turning pro, especially for a camera which offers a higher spec than the competition and a standard zoom which on Lenstip.com outperformed its Canon/Nikon equivalents.

Lets be frank: The pro market (currently) doesn't care about Mirrorless, so Sony and Fuji are making some great cameras but they aren't going to attract the high end pro's. If you want a pro level DSLR then Pentax is the only alternative game in town and their heritage (K1000 was often the first camera many photographers ever bought) and history with top line pro's still makes them a force to be reckoned with. Peter Hurley shot Pentax 6x7, David Bailey shot Pentax through much of the 1960's and 1970's. The name has a whole lot more resonance in photography than Sony, Fuji or even Minolta so while their current market share may be small I think they do punch above their weight simply because of their heritage - they pretty much invented the SLR after all.

If you want evidence of the impact they might have look at Nikon. The D810 was selling at around £2250 until March this year the month after Pentax announced the K1. Since the K1 was announced in late Feb they have slashed the D810 to under £1800. You may not perceive the K1 as a threat to the established players but Nikon do...
Do you really think D810 prices have fallen because of the K1? I suspect the D810's prices would have fallen with or without the Pentax. It's simply because of the particular stage in its lifecycle which most consumer goods go through. ;-)
HIstory is littered with companies who have come in from the left-field and taken the market by storm. It isn't going to be easy for Pentax for sure, but I think they're in with a real chance of growing their market share from say 5% now to 15-20% within 5 years if they keep engineering such extremely competitive and well designed cameras. They have the benefit of Ricoh behind them (turnover about twice as much as Nikon and 2/3 that of Canon) so with the right marketing budget (and that's currently an issue) I could see them making some inroads.

May I say how much I appreciate you guys (whatever you shoot) engaging in a highly intelligent and reasoned debate on this. I actually think David Bailey is right when he said the gear doesn't matter at all. Laying my cards on the table I am sad to see a company with such an incredible heritage in photography having fallen on hard times in recent years (and that goes for Kodak, Contax, Minolta and Olympus to a degree to too) I wish to goodness Contax were where Fuji are, I wish Olympus still made full frame SLR's, I wish Kodak were still here!! All of these companies have something special to offer and it's a shame that the dominance of two major players tends to smother some pretty darned wonderful photographic firms...

Pentax strike me at present as the very plucky underdog, they're making some brilliant gear and if DSLR is your bag they're the only other game in town. I admire them for their balls in offering a third way. MOre competition in a market tends to stimulate everyone to deliver their best.

Birdseed
 
The thing that might work in Pentax's favour is that there may well be a general and catastrophic collapse of the camera market.

The P&S market has already gone for reasons that don't need repeating. The entry level DSLR / ILC soccer mom market is probably next.

That leaves an aging enthusiast market that will probably shrink considerably and the Professional market which is fairly static but small.

So given that landscape and a dramatically shrunken potential for volume and profits the question is will the big players remain that interested? Canon is already diversifying as fast as it can but it owes a lot of its heritage to cameras so might hang on in there. But Sony has no such loyalty and may well get fed up with the cost throwing products at a wall to see what sticks. Nikon again has heritage and is much more dependent on cameras so may go down fighting.

So the emphasis may well switch to small volumes of niche products and if Pentax can survive that long (or rather if Ricoh decide to keep it going that long) they may have a reasonable future in a much shrunken environment.
 
Sadly two losers don't make a winner....if it did British Leyland would be the worlds top car manufacturer.....

The whole camera market is in steep decline and in the future there simply will not be room for as many manufacturers as there are now. A contraction of the supplier base and less brands is inevitable.
 
I hope that you are not comparing the quality of British Leyland vehicles with Pentax (or Samsung) cameras!
Indeed not! :-D
And surely, a contraction of the supplier base is likely to involve mergers of existing companies.
The camera divisions of both Samsung and Ricoh are small and not their core business, therefore Samsung and Ricoh would never merge - especially in a declining market sector.
 
Laying my cards on the table I've been a Pentax shooter for over 30 years but that doesn't mean that I don't appreciate that there are many other great cameras out there so this is most definitely not intended as a fanboy post pouring scorn on the other brands. A friend and fellow pro shoots with an EOS 5D Mk3 and another uses the Sony A7Rii. They're both great cameras, they certainly turn in good results so lets leave the silly points scoring outside the thread.

As a Pentax user for so long I've watched the brand go from a major force in photography in the ME Super era with the Pentax LX, 645, 6x7 and many pro's using their gear to a shadow of its former self. On the other hand I do feel that since the Ricoh acquisition of Pentax the product range has taken a giant leap forward and the range is now world class. Strategically they've made some really good moves. I genuinely believe that in body stabilisation as used by Pentax/Sonmy/Olympus is a better approach than stabilised lenses used by Nikon/Canon because with in lens stabilisation you're paying more for every lens you buy and suffering in terms of bulk and weight too. In addition with in body stabilisation it seems to me that you benefit from the fact that any lens you ever buy secondhand - even a 1955 pentax screw mount lens will benefit from stabilisation and be fully compatible with the latest Pentax cameras.

Lets looks at the current Pentax range:

The 645Z is clearly an exceptional camera for professional landscape and fashion/advertising photographers. At around £5-6k it consummately outperforms the Nikon and Canon top line pro cameras for image quality and it matches the Hasselblad and Phase 1 medium format rivals at 1/2 to 1/4 the price.

The K3 offers EOS 7D Mk2 levels of performance at roughly half the cost. In addition the weatherproofing and build seems to be less plasticky and better than rivals. Speaking personally I actually had my eye on the Nikon D7100 about 5 years ago (I'd always had a thing for Nikon) but when I went into the shop and held the Nikon D7100, the Canon EOS 50D and the pentax K5 the build quality of the Pentax was in another league altogether. My choice given they both used the same sensor was a no brainer... Basically a £600 Pentax is built like a £5000 Canon or Nikon and I find that an very compelling proposition.

The (about to launch) full frame Pentax K1 looks to offer an incredible bang for the buck at £1599. The Nikon D810 is some £800 more expensive, it has an earlier variant of the sensor, no in body stabilisation, no GPS, no astro tracking, no articulated screen, no in body illumination for night use and no sensor shift, although it has more focus points and I suspect better flash integration. The Canon EOS 5D Mk3 offers only 20 megapixels rather than 36, no in body stabilisation, no GPS, no astro tracking, no articulated screen, no in body illumination and no sensor shift. The Canon does offer more focus points and like Nikon better flash integration and higher sync speeds. The Canon is close to £1000 more for nearly half the sensor resolution and lets face it Canon have been lagging compared to the Sony sensors used by Sony, Nikon and Pentax for years in terms of dynamic range.

So it seems to me that Pentax are now offering some pretty compelling, indeed world beating cameras for a lower cost than the competition and combining it with better build quality. The lenses are generally cheaper and just as good or better too - the Pentax Limited 31mm, 43mm and 77mm are some of the greatest lenses ever made with Leica standards of build quality and stunning optics and handling. The 24-70mm F2.8 lens is a couple of hundred cheaper and outperforms the equivalent Nikon and Canon glass so I'm kind of wondering given all this what stops you coming back to Pentax??? If you're a sports or wildlife photographer then I totally get it - Pentax do not currently offer very fast telephoto glass as Canon and Nikon do, but aside from those special cases I think the lens range is now comprehensive enough to cater for fashion, wedding, landscape, family and architectural photography. The new K1 will be launching with a full frame lens range covering 15-200mm in 3 lenses at F2.8, then there's the limited lenses, the choice of several macro's at 35mm, 50mm and 100mm. On top of that for extended telephoto use there's the 200mm F2.8, 300mm F4, 150-450mm F4-5.6 and the 560mm F5.6. There simply aren't many gaps there for any normal serious amateur and pro use.

So if you were the CEO of Pentax what would it take to make you switch? What do you think they're doing well and what do they need to do better? Clearly if you have an extensive lens collection that weighs into the equation, but if you're a Canon/Nikon APS shooter you're bascially looking at binning your existing lenses anyway so are Pentax in the running for your money?

I hope fellow photographers will take this in the spirit it's intended. I'm curious to learn just how appealing a move to Pentax is to you?

Birdseed
They don't have to do anything - they always have been , and remain , the best mainstream camera maker .

I've been shooting Pentax since 1975 , have tried the competition and stuck with the best .
 

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